Equity impact of HPV vaccination on lifetime projections of cervical cancer burden among cohorts in 84 countries by global, regional, and income levels, 2010-22: a modelling study.

Background: While human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have been available since 2006, the coverage has varied among countries. Our aim is to analyse the equity impact of HPV vaccination on the lifetime projections of cervical cancer burden among vaccinated cohorts of 2010-22 in 84 countries. Methods: We used WHO and UNICEF estimates of national immunisation coverage for HPV vaccination in 84 countries during 2010-22. We used PRIME (Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics) to estimate the lifetime health impact of HPV vaccination on cervical cancer burden in terms of deaths, cases, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by vaccination in their respective countries. We generated concentration indices and curves to assess the equity impact of HPV vaccination across 84 countries. Findings: The health impact of HPV vaccination varied across the 84 countries and ranged from Switzerland to Tanzania at 2 to 34 deaths, 4 to 47 cases, and 40 to 735 DALYs averted per 1000 vaccinated adolescent girls over the lifetime of the vaccinated cohorts of 2010-22. The concentration index for the distribution of average coverage during 2010-22 among the 84 countries ranked by vaccine impact was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.27-0.40) and highlights the wide inequities in HPV vaccination coverage. Interpretation: Our findings suggested that countries with a relatively higher cervical cancer burden and thereby a relatively higher need for HPV vaccination had relatively lower coverage during 2010-22. Further, there were significant inequities in HPV vaccination coverage within the Americas, Europe, and Western Pacific regions, and in high- and low-income countries with a pro-advantaged and regressive distribution favouring countries with lower vaccine impact. Funding: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Systematic review of social determinants of childhood immunisation in low- and middle-income countries and equity impact analysis of childhood vaccination coverage in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria has a high proportion of the world's underimmunised children. We estimated the inequities in childhood immunisation coverage associated with socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, child, and healthcare characteristics among children aged 12-23 months in Nigeria using a social determinants of health perspective. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review to identify the social determinants of childhood immunisation associated with inequities in vaccination coverage among low- and middle-income countries. Using the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), we conducted multiple logistic regression to estimate the association between basic childhood vaccination coverage (1-dose BCG, 3-dose DTP-HepB-Hib (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B and Haemophilus influenzae type B), 3-dose polio, and 1-dose measles) and socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, child, and healthcare characteristics in Nigeria. RESULTS: From the systematic review, we identified the key determinants of immunisation to be household wealth, religion, and ethnicity for socioeconomic characteristics; region and place of residence for geographic characteristics; maternal age at birth, maternal education, and household head status for maternal characteristics; sex of child and birth order for child characteristics; and antenatal care and birth setting for healthcare characteristics. Based of the 2018 Nigeria DHS analysis of 6,059 children aged 12-23 months, we estimated that basic vaccination coverage was 31% (95% CI: 29-33) among children aged 12-23 months, whilst 19% (95% CI:18-21) of them were zero-dose children who had received none of the basic vaccines. After controlling for background characteristics, there was a significant increase in the odds of basic vaccination by household wealth (AOR: 3.21 (2.06, 5.00), p < 0.001) for the wealthiest quintile compared to the poorest quintile, antenatal care of four or more antenatal care visits compared to no antenatal care (AOR: 2.87 (2.21, 3.72), p < 0.001), delivery in a health facility compared to home births (AOR 1.32 (1.08, 1.61), p = 0.006), relatively older maternal age of 35-49 years compared to 15-19 years (AOR: 2.25 (1.46, 3.49), p < 0.001), and maternal education of secondary or higher education compared to no formal education (AOR: 1.79 (1.39, 2.31), p < 0.001). Children of Fulani ethnicity in comparison to children of Igbo ethnicity had lower odds of receiving basic vaccinations (AOR: 0.51 (0.26, 0.97), p = 0.039). CONCLUSIONS: Basic vaccination coverage is below target levels for all groups. Children from the poorest households, of Fulani ethnicity, who were born in home settings, and with young mothers with no formal education nor antenatal care, were associated with lower odds of basic vaccination in Nigeria. We recommend a proportionate universalism approach for addressing the immunisation barriers in the National Programme on Immunization of Nigeria.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of measles vaccination through microarray patches in 70 low-income and middle-income countries: mathematical modelling and early-stage economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Microarray patches (MAPs) are a promising technology being developed to reduce barriers to vaccine delivery based on needles and syringes (N&S). To address the evidence gap on the public health value of applying this potential technology to immunisation programmes, we evaluated the health impact on measles burden and cost-effectiveness of introducing measles-rubella MAPs (MR-MAPs) in 70 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We used an age-structured dynamic model of measles transmission and vaccination to project measles cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years during 2030-2040. Compared with the baseline scenarios with continuing current N&S-based practice, we evaluated the introduction of MR-MAPs under different measles vaccine coverage projections and MR-MAP introduction strategies. Costs were calculated based on the ingredients approach, including direct cost of measles treatment, vaccine procurement and vaccine delivery. Model-based burden and cost estimates were derived for individual countries and country income groups. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of introducing MR-MAPs to health opportunity costs. RESULTS: MR-MAP introduction could prevent 27%-37% of measles burden between 2030 and 2040 in 70 LMICs, compared with the N&S-only immunisation strategy. The largest health impact could be achieved under lower coverage projection and accelerated introduction strategy, with 39 million measles cases averted. Measles treatment cost is a key driver of the net cost of introduction. In countries with a relatively higher income, introducing MR-MAPs could be a cost-saving intervention due to reduced treatment costs. Compared with country-specific health opportunity costs, introducing MR-MAPs would be cost-effective in 16%-81% of LMICs, depending on the MR-MAPs procurement prices and vaccine coverage projections. CONCLUSIONS: Introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs can be a cost-effective strategy to revitalise measles immunisation programmes with stagnant uptake and reach undervaccinated children. Sustainable introduction and uptake of MR-MAPs has the potential to improve vaccine equity within and between countries and accelerate progress towards measles elimination.

The full health, economic, and social benefits of prospective Strep A vaccination.

Recent research has documented a wide range of health, economic, and social benefits conferred by vaccination, beyond the direct reductions in morbidity, mortality, and future healthcare costs traditionally captured in economic evaluations. In this paper, we describe the societal benefits that would likely stem from widespread administration of safe and effective vaccines against Streptococcus pyogenes (Strep A), which was estimated to be the fifth-leading cause of infectious disease deaths globally prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. We then estimate the global societal gains from prospective Strep A vaccination through a value-per-statistical-life approach. Estimated aggregate lifetime benefits for 30 global birth cohorts range from $1.7 to $5.1 trillion, depending on the age at which vaccination is administered and other factors. These results suggest that the benefits of Strep A vaccination would be large and justify substantial investment in the vaccines' development, manufacture, and delivery.

Global impact and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose human papillomavirus vaccination schedules: a comparative modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: To eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, the World Health Organization had recommended routine vaccination of adolescent girls with two doses of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine before sexual initiation. However, many countries have yet to implement HPV vaccination because of financial or logistical barriers to delivering two doses outside the infant immunisation programme. METHODS: Using three independent HPV transmission models, we estimated the long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose HPV vaccination, in 188 countries, under scenarios in which one dose of the vaccine gives either a shorter duration of full protection (20 or 30 years) or lifelong protection but lower vaccine efficacy (e.g. 80%) compared to two doses. We simulated routine vaccination with the 9-valent HPV vaccine in 10-year-old girls at 80% coverage for the years 2021-2120, with a 1-year catch-up campaign up to age 14 at 80% coverage in the first year of the programme. RESULTS: Over the years 2021-2120, one-dose vaccination at 80% coverage was projected to avert 115.2 million (range of medians: 85.1-130.4) and 146.8 million (114.1-161.6) cervical cancers assuming one dose of the vaccine confers 20 and 30 years of protection, respectively. Should one dose of the vaccine provide lifelong protection at 80% vaccine efficacy, 147.8 million (140.6-169.7) cervical cancer cases could be prevented. If protection wanes after 20 years, 65 to 889 additional girls would need to be vaccinated with the second dose to prevent one cervical cancer, depending on the epidemiological profiles of the country. Across all income groups, the threshold cost for the second dose was low: from 1.59 (0.14-3.82) USD in low-income countries to 44.83 (3.75-85.64) USD in high-income countries, assuming one dose confers 30-year protection. CONCLUSIONS: Results were consistent across the three independent models and suggest that one-dose vaccination has similar health benefits to a two-dose programme while simplifying vaccine delivery, reducing costs, and alleviating vaccine supply constraints. The second dose may become cost-effective if there is a shorter duration of protection from one dose, cheaper vaccine and vaccination delivery strategies, and high burden of cervical cancer.

The potential global cost-effectiveness of prospective Strep A vaccines and associated implementation efforts.

Group A Streptococcus causes a wide range of diseases from relatively mild infections including pharyngitis to more severe illnesses such as invasive diseases and rheumatic heart disease (RHD). Our aim is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical Strep A vaccine on multiple disease manifestations at the global-level. Cost-effectiveness analyses were carried out by building on the potential epidemiological impact of vaccines that align with the WHO's Preferred Product Characteristics for Strep A vaccines. Maximum vaccination costs for a cost-effective vaccination strategy were estimated at the thresholds of 1XGDP per capita and health opportunity costs. The maximum cost per fully vaccinated person for Strep A vaccination to be cost-effective was $385-$489 in high-income countries, $213-$312 in upper-income-income countries, $74-$132 in lower-middle-income countries, and $37-$69 in low-income countries for routine vaccination at birth and 5 years of age respectively. While the threshold costs are sensitive to vaccine characteristics such as efficacy, and waning immunity, a cost-effective Strep A vaccine will lower morbidity and mortality burden in all income settings.

Impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget implications of HPV vaccination in Kenya: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of cervical cancer cases and deaths worldwide. Kenya introduced a quadrivalent HPV vaccine (GARDASIL, hereafter referred to as GARDASIL-4) for ten-year-old girls in late 2019 with donor support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. As Kenya may soon graduate from Gavi support, it is important to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness and budget impact of the current HPV vaccine, and potential alternatives. METHODS: We used a proportionate outcomes static cohort model to evaluate the annual budget impact and lifetime cost-effectiveness of vaccinating ten-year-old girls over the period 2020-2029. We included a catch-up campaign for girls aged 11-14 years in 2020. We estimated cervical cancer cases, deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthcare costs (government and societal perspective) expected to occur with and without vaccination over the lifetimes of each cohort of vaccinated girls. For each of the four products available globally (CECOLIN©, CERVARIX©, GARDASIL-4©, and GARDASIL-9 ©), we estimated the cost (2021 US$) per DALY averted compared to no vaccine and to each other. Model inputs were obtained from published sources, as well as local stakeholders. RESULTS: We estimated 320,000 cases and 225,000 deaths attributed to cervical cancer over the lifetimes of the 14 evaluated birth cohorts. HPV vaccination could reduce this burden by 42-60 %. Without cross-protection, CECOLIN had the lowest net cost and most attractive cost-effectiveness. With cross-protection, CERVARIX was the most cost-effective. Under either scenario the most cost-effective vaccine had a 100 % probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$ 100 (5 % of Kenya's national gross domestic product per capita) compared to no vaccination. Should Kenya reach its target of 90 % coverage and graduate from Gavi support, the undiscounted annual vaccine program cost could exceed US$ 10 million per year. For all three vaccines currently supported by Gavi, a single-dose strategy would be cost-saving compared to no vaccination. CONCLUSION: HPV vaccination for girls is highly cost-effective in Kenya. Compared to GARDASIL-4, alternative products could provide similar or greater health benefits at lower net costs. Substantial government funding will be required to reach and sustain coverage targets as Kenya graduates from Gavi support. A single dose strategy is likely to have similar benefits for less cost.

Vaccine equity in low and middle income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Evidence to date has shown that inequality in health, and vaccination coverage in particular, can have ramifications to wider society. However, whilst individual studies have sought to characterise these heterogeneities in immunisation coverage at national level, few have taken a broad and quantitative view of the contributing factors to heterogeneity in immunisation coverage and impact, i.e. the number of cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years averted. This systematic review aims to highlight these geographic, demographic, and sociodemographic characteristics through a qualitative and quantitative approach, vital to prioritise and optimise vaccination policies. METHODS: A systematic review of two databases (PubMed and Web of Science) was undertaken using search terms and keywords to identify studies examining factors on immunisation inequality and heterogeneity in vaccination coverage. Inclusion criteria were applied independently by two researchers. Studies including data on key characteristics of interest were further analysed through a meta-analysis to produce a pooled estimate of the risk ratio using a random effects model for that characteristic. RESULTS: One hundred and eight studies were included in this review. We found that inequalities in wealth, education, and geographic access can affect vaccine impact and vaccination dropout. We estimated those living in rural areas were not significantly different in terms of full vaccination status compared to urban areas but noted considerable heterogeneity between countries. We found that females were 3% (95%CI[1%, 5%]) less likely to be fully vaccinated than males. Additionally, we estimated that children whose mothers had no formal education were 28% (95%CI[18%,47%]) less likely to be fully vaccinated than those whose mother had primary level, or above, education. Finally, we found that individuals in the poorest wealth quintile were 27% (95%CI [16%,37%]) less likely to be fully vaccinated than those in the richest. CONCLUSIONS: We found a nuanced picture of inequality in vaccination coverage and access with wealth disparity dominating, and likely driving, other disparities. This review highlights the complex landscape of inequity and further need to design vaccination strategies targeting missed subgroups to improve and recover vaccination coverage following the COVID-19 pandemic. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Prospero, CRD42021261927.

Public health and social measures to mitigate the health and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey, Egypt, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Poland during 2020-2021: situational analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic had a colossal impact on human society globally. There were similarities and differences in the public health and social measures taken by countries, and comparative analysis facilitates cross-country learning of contextual practices and sharing lessons to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic impact. Our aim is to conduct a situational analysis of the public health and social measures to mitigate the health and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey, Egypt, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Poland during 2020-2021. METHODS: We conducted a situational analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic response in Turkey, Egypt, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Poland from the perspectives of the health system and health finance, national coordination, surveillance, testing capacity, health infrastructure, healthcare workforce, medical supply, physical distancing and non-pharmaceutical interventions, health communication, impact on non-COVID-19 health services, impact on the economy, education, gender and civil liberties, and COVID-19 vaccination. RESULTS: Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Turkey, Egypt, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Poland have expanded COVID-19 testing and treatment capacity over time. However, they faced a shortage of healthcare workforce and medical supplies. They took population-based quarantine measures rather than individual-based isolation measures, which significantly burdened their economies and disrupted education. The unemployment rate increased, and economic growth stagnated. Economic stimulus policy was accompanied by high inflation. Despite the effort to sustain essential health services, healthcare access declined. Schools were closed for 5-11 months. Gender inequality was aggravated in Turkey and Ukraine, and an issue was raised for balancing public health measures and civil liberties in Egypt and Poland. Digital technologies played an important role in maintaining routine healthcare, education, and public health communication. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed weaknesses in healthcare systems in the emerging economies of Turkey, Egypt, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Poland, and highlighted the intricate link between health and economy. Individual-level testing, isolation, and contact tracing are effective public health interventions in mitigating the health and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in comparison to population-level measures of lockdowns. Smart investments in public health, including digital health and linking health security with sustainable development, are key for economic gain, social stability, and more equitable and sustainable development.

Childhood immunisation timeliness and vaccine confidence by health information source, maternal, socioeconomic, and geographic characteristics in Albania.

BACKGROUND: Albania is facing decreasing childhood immunisation coverage and delay in timeliness of vaccination despite a growing economy and universal health insurance. Our aim is to estimate childhood immunisation timeliness and vaccine confidence associated with health information source, maternal, socioeconomic, and geographic characteristics in Albania. METHODS: We used the 2017-2018 Albania Demographic and Health Survey to analyse childhood immunisation timeliness and vaccine confidence among 2113 and 1795 mothers of under-5-year-old children respectively using simple and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among mothers of under-5-year-old children in Albania, 78.1% [95% CI: 74.3, 81.5] never postponed or rejected childhood vaccines. Immunisation delay was reported by 21.3% [18.0, 25.1] of mothers, but a majority (67.0%) were caused by the infant's sickness at the time of vaccination, while a minority (6.1%) due to mothers' concerns about vaccine safety and side effects. Vaccine confidence was high among the mothers at 92.9% [91.0, 94.4] with similar geographical patterns to immunisation timeliness. Among 1.3% of mothers who ever refused vaccination of their children, the main concerns were about vaccine safety (47.8%) and side effects (23.1%). With respect to childhood immunisation timeliness, after controlling for other background characteristics, mothers whose main health information source was the Internet/social media had 34% (adjusted odds-ratio AOR = 0.66 [0.47, 0.94], p = 0.020) lower odds in comparison to other sources, working mothers had 35% (AOR = 0.65 [0.47, 0.91], p = 0.013) lower odds in comparison to non-working mothers, mothers with no education had 86% (AOR = 0.14 [0.03, 0.67], p = 0.014) lower odds compared to those who completed higher education, and mothers living in AL02-Qender and AL03-Jug regions had 62% (AOR = 0.38 [0.23, 0.63], p < 0.0001) and 64% (AOR = 0.36 [0.24, 0.53], p < 0.0001) lower odds respectively in comparison to those residing in AL01-Veri region (p < 0.0001).   With respect to vaccine confidence, mothers whose main health information source was the Internet/social media had 56% (AOR = 0.44 [0.27, 0.73], p = 0.002) lower odds in comparison to other sources, single mothers had 92% (AOR = 0.08 [0.01, 0.65], p = 0.019) lower odds compared to those married/living with a partner, mothers of specific ethnicites (like Roma) had 61% (AOR = 0.39 [0.15, 0.97], p = 0.042) lower odds in comparison to mothers of Albanian ethnicity, and mothers living in AL03-Jug region had 67% (AOR = 0.33 [0.19, 0.59], p ≤ 0.0001) lower odds compared to mothers residing in AL01-Veri region. CONCLUSIONS: Reinforcement of scientific evidence-based online communication about childhood immunisation in combination with tracking and analysis of vaccine hesitancy sentiment and anti-vaccination movements on the Internet/social media would be beneficial in improving immunisation timeliness and vaccine confidence in Albania. Since parents tend to search online for information that would confirm their original beliefs, traditional ways of promoting vaccination by healthcare professionals who enjoy confidence as trusted sources of health information should be sustained and strengthened to target the inequities in childhood immunisation timelines and vaccine confidence in Albania.

Inequities in childhood immunisation coverage associated with socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, child, and place of birth characteristics in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The global Immunisation Agenda 2030 highlights coverage and equity as a strategic priority goal to reach high equitable immunisation coverage at national levels and in all districts. We estimated inequities in full immunisation coverage associated with socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, child, and place of birth characteristics among children aged 12-23 months in Kenya. METHODS: We analysed full immunisation coverage (1-dose BCG, 3-dose DTP-HepB-Hib (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B and Haemophilus influenzae type B), 3-dose polio, 1-dose measles, and 3-dose pneumococcal vaccines) of 3943 children aged 12-23 months from the 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey. We disaggregated mean coverage by socioeconomic (household wealth, religion, ethnicity), geographic (place of residence, province), maternal (maternal age at birth, maternal education, maternal marital status, maternal household head status), child (sex of child, birth order), and place of birth characteristics, and estimated inequities in full immunisation coverage using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Immunisation coverage ranged from 82% [81-84] for the third dose of polio to 97.4% [96.7-98.2] for the first dose of DTP-HepB-Hib, while full immunisation coverage was 68% [66-71] in 2014. After controlling for other background characteristics through multivariate logistic regression, children of mothers with primary school education or higher have at least 54% higher odds of being fully immunised compared to children of mothers with no education. Children born in clinical settings had 41% higher odds of being fully immunised compared to children born in home settings. Children in the Coast, Western, Central, and Eastern regions had at least 74% higher odds of being fully immunised compared to children in the North Eastern region, while children in urban areas had 26% lower odds of full immunisation compared to children in rural areas. Children in the middle and richer wealth quintile households were 43-57% more likely to have full immunisation coverage compared to children in the poorest wealth quintile households. Children who were sixth born or higher had 37% lower odds of full immunisation compared to first-born children. CONCLUSIONS: Children of mothers with no education, born in home settings, in regions with limited health infrastructure, living in poorer households, and of higher birth order are associated with lower rates of full immunisation. Targeted programmes to reach under-immunised children in these subpopulations will lower the inequities in childhood immunisation coverage in Kenya.

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. METHODS: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. FINDINGS: We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. INTERPRETATION: Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Childhood vaccination coverage and equity impact in Ethiopia by socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, and child characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia is a priority country of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance to improve vaccination coverage and equitable uptake. The Ethiopian National Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) and the Global Vaccine Action Plan set coverage goals of 90% at national level and 80% at district level by 2020. This study analyses full vaccination coverage among children in Ethiopia and estimates the equity impact by socioeconomic, geographic, maternal and child characteristics based on the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey dataset. METHODS: Full vaccination coverage (1-dose BCG, 3-dose DTP3-HepB-Hib, 3-dose polio, 1-dose measles (MCV1), 3-dose pneumococcal (PCV3), and 2-dose rotavirus vaccines) of 2,004 children aged 12-23 months was analysed. Mean coverage was disaggregated by socioeconomic (household wealth, religion, ethnicity), geographic (area of residence, region), maternal (maternal age at birth, maternal education, maternal marital status, sex of household head), and child (sex of child, birth order) characteristics. Concentration indices estimated wealth and education-related inequities, and multiple logistic regression assessed associations between full vaccination coverage and socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, and child characteristics. RESULTS: Full vaccination coverage was 33.3% [29.4-37.2] in 2016. Single vaccination coverage ranged from 49.1% [45.1-53.1] for PCV3 to 69.2% [65.5-72.8] for BCG. Wealth and maternal education related inequities were pronounced with concentration indices of 0.30 and 0.23 respectively. Children in Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa were seven times more likely to have full vaccination compared to children living in the Afar region. Children in female-headed households were 49% less likely to have full vaccination. CONCLUSION: Vaccination coverage in Ethiopia has a pro-advantaged regressive distribution with respect to both household wealth and maternal education. Children from poorer households, rural regions of Afar and Somali, no maternal education, and female-headed households had lower full vaccination coverage. Targeted programmes to reach under-immunised children in these subpopulations will improve vaccination coverage and equity outcomes in Ethiopia.

Serostatus testing and dengue vaccine cost-benefit thresholds.

The World Health Organization (WHO) currently recommends pre-screening for past infection prior to administration of the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV. Using a threshold modelling analysis, we identify settings where this guidance prohibits positive net-benefits, and are thus unfavourable. Generally, however, our model shows test-then-vaccinate strategies can improve CYD-TDV economic viability: effective testing reduces unnecessary vaccination costs while increasing health benefits. With sufficiently low testing cost, those trends outweigh additional screening costs, expanding the range of settings with positive net-benefits. This work highlights two aspects for further analysis of test-then-vaccinate strategies. We found that starting routine testing at younger ages could increase benefits; if real tests are shown to sufficiently address safety concerns, the manufacturer, regulators and WHO should revisit guidance restricting use to 9-years-and-older recipients. We also found that repeat testing could improve return-on-investment (ROI), despite increasing intervention costs. Thus, more detailed analyses should address questions on repeat testing and testing periodicity, in addition to real test sensitivity and specificity. Our results follow from a mathematical model relating ROI to epidemiology, intervention strategy, and costs for testing, vaccination and dengue infections. We applied this model to a range of strategies, costs and epidemiological settings pertinent to CYD-TDV. However, general trends may not apply locally, so we provide our model and analyses as an R package available via CRAN, denvax. To apply to their setting, decision-makers need only local estimates of age-specific seroprevalence and costs for secondary infections.

Demographics, perceptions, and socioeconomic factors affecting influenza vaccination among adults in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective is to analyze influenza vaccination status by demographic factors, perceived vaccine efficacy, social influence, herd immunity, vaccine cost, health insurance status, and barriers to influenza vaccination among adults 18 years and older in the United States. BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination coverage among adults 18 years and older was 41% during 2010-2011 and has increased and plateaued at 43% during 2016-2017. This is below the target of 70% influenza vaccination coverage among adults, which is an objective of the Healthy People 2020 initiative. METHODS: We conducted a survey of a nationally representative sample of adults 18 years and older in the United States on factors affecting influenza vaccination. We conducted bivariate analysis using Rao-Scott chi-square test and multivariate analysis using weighted multinomial logistic regression of this survey data to determine the effect of demographics, perceived vaccine efficacy, social influence, herd immunity, vaccine cost, health insurance, and barriers associated with influenza vaccination uptake among adults in the United States. RESULTS: Influenza vaccination rates are relatively high among adults in older age groups (73.3% among 75 + year old), adults with education levels of bachelor's degree or higher (45.1%), non-Hispanic Whites (41.8%), adults with higher incomes (52.8% among adults with income of over $150,000), partnered adults (43.2%), non-working adults (46.2%), and adults with internet access (39.9%). Influenza vaccine is taken every year by 76% of adults who perceive that the vaccine is very effective, 64.2% of adults who are socially influenced by others, and 41.8% of adults with health insurance, while 72.3% of adults without health insurance never get vaccinated. Facilitators for adults getting vaccinated every year in comparison to only some years include older age, perception of high vaccine effectiveness, higher income and no out-of-pocket payments. Barriers for adults never getting vaccinated in comparison to only some years include lack of health insurance, disliking of shots, perception of low vaccine effectiveness, low perception of risk for influenza infection, and perception of risky side effects. CONCLUSION: Influenza vaccination rates among adults in the United States can be improved towards the Healthy People 2020 target of 70% by increasing awareness of the safety, efficacy and need for influenza vaccination, leveraging the practices and principles of commercial and social marketing to improve vaccine trust, confidence and acceptance, and lowering out-of-pocket expenses and covering influenza vaccination costs through health insurance.

The State of US Health, 1990-2016: Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Among US States.

Introduction: Several studies have measured health outcomes in the United States, but none have provided a comprehensive assessment of patterns of health by state. Objective: To use the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to report trends in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors at the state level from 1990 to 2016. Design and Setting: A systematic analysis of published studies and available data sources estimates the burden of disease by age, sex, geography, and year. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 causes and 84 risk factors with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. Results: Between 1990 and 2016, overall death rates in the United States declined from 745.2 (95% UI, 740.6 to 749.8) per 100 000 persons to 578.0 (95% UI, 569.4 to 587.1) per 100 000 persons. The probability of death among adults aged 20 to 55 years declined in 31 states and Washington, DC from 1990 to 2016. In 2016, Hawaii had the highest life expectancy at birth (81.3 years) and Mississippi had the lowest (74.7 years), a 6.6-year difference. Minnesota had the highest HALE at birth (70.3 years), and West Virginia had the lowest (63.8 years), a 6.5-year difference. The leading causes of DALYs in the United States for 1990 and 2016 were ischemic heart disease and lung cancer, while the third leading cause in 1990 was low back pain, and the third leading cause in 2016 was chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Opioid use disorders moved from the 11th leading cause of DALYs in 1990 to the 7th leading cause in 2016, representing a 74.5% (95% UI, 42.8% to 93.9%) change. In 2016, each of the following 6 risks individually accounted for more than 5% of risk-attributable DALYs: tobacco consumption, high body mass index (BMI), poor diet, alcohol and drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high blood pressure. Across all US states, the top risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs were due to 1 of the 3 following causes: tobacco consumption (32 states), high BMI (10 states), or alcohol and drug use (8 states). Conclusions and Relevance: There are wide differences in the burden of disease at the state level. Specific diseases and risk factors, such as drug use disorders, high BMI, poor diet, high fasting plasma glucose level, and alcohol use disorders are increasing and warrant increased attention. These data can be used to inform national health priorities for research, clinical care, and policy.

Epidemiological Effectiveness and Cost of a Fungal Meningitis Outbreak Response in New River Valley, Virginia: Local Health Department and Clinical Perspectives.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the effectiveness and cost of a fungal meningitis outbreak response in the New River Valley of Virginia during 2012-2013 from the perspective of the local public health department and clinical facilities. The fungal meningitis outbreak affected 23 states in the United States with 751 cases and 64 deaths in 20 states; there were 56 cases and 5 deaths in Virginia. METHODS: We conducted a partial economic evaluation of the fungal meningitis outbreak response in New River Valley. We collected costs associated with the local health department and clinical facilities in the outbreak response and estimated the epidemiological effectiveness by using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. RESULTS: We estimated the epidemiological effectiveness of this outbreak response to be 153 DALYs averted among the patients, and the costs incurred by the local health department and clinical facilities to be $30,413 and $39,580, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $198 per DALY averted and $258 per DALY averted from the local health department and clinical perspectives, respectively, thereby assisting in impact evaluation of the outbreak response by the local health department and clinical facilities. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:38-46).

Epidemiological and economic impact of pandemic influenza in Chicago: Priorities for vaccine interventions.

The study objective is to estimate the epidemiological and economic impact of vaccine interventions during influenza pandemics in Chicago, and assist in vaccine intervention priorities. Scenarios of delay in vaccine introduction with limited vaccine efficacy and limited supplies are not unlikely in future influenza pandemics, as in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. We simulated influenza pandemics in Chicago using agent-based transmission dynamic modeling. Population was distributed among high-risk and non-high risk among 0-19, 20-64 and 65+ years subpopulations. Different attack rate scenarios for catastrophic (30.15%), strong (21.96%), and moderate (11.73%) influenza pandemics were compared against vaccine intervention scenarios, at 40% coverage, 40% efficacy, and unit cost of $28.62. Sensitivity analysis for vaccine compliance, vaccine efficacy and vaccine start date was also conducted. Vaccine prioritization criteria include risk of death, total deaths, net benefits, and return on investment. The risk of death is the highest among the high-risk 65+ years subpopulation in the catastrophic influenza pandemic, and highest among the high-risk 0-19 years subpopulation in the strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The proportion of total deaths and net benefits are the highest among the high-risk 20-64 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The return on investment is the highest in the high-risk 0-19 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. Based on risk of death and return on investment, high-risk groups of the three age group subpopulations can be prioritized for vaccination, and the vaccine interventions are cost saving for all age and risk groups. The attack rates among the children are higher than among the adults and seniors in the catastrophic, strong, and moderate influenza pandemic scenarios, due to their larger social contact network and homophilous interactions in school. Based on return on investment and higher attack rates among children, we recommend prioritizing children (0-19 years) and seniors (65+ years) after high-risk groups for influenza vaccination during times of limited vaccine supplies. Based on risk of death, we recommend prioritizing seniors (65+ years) after high-risk groups for influenza vaccination during times of limited vaccine supplies.

Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study.

Importance: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. Evidence Review: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. Findings: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. Conclusions and Relevance: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.