Pet ownership-related differences in medical and long-term care costs among community-dwelling older Japanese.

This study examined the differences in medical and long-term care costs over 18 months between pet owners and non-owners among community-dwelling older Japanese. Pet ownership data were collected from 460 community-dwelling adults age 65 years and older. These data were matched with data from the National Health Insurance, health insurance for older people, and Long-Term Care Insurance beneficiaries for 17 months back from the survey on pet ownership. Pet-ownership group-specific trajectories in monthly medical and long-term care costs were modeled by a generalized estimating equation. Among pet owners (n = 96, 20.9%) and non-pet owners (n = 364, 79.1%) there were no significant differences in baseline demographic or health characteristics including chronic disease and self-reported long-term care level. At baseline, pet owners had estimated monthly medical costs of ¥48,054 (SE = 0.11; $418), compared to ¥42,260 (SE = 0.06; $367) for non-pet owners. The monthly medical costs did not differ significantly between the two groups during the 18-month follow-up period. At baseline, estimated monthly long-term care costs of pet owners and non-pet owners were ¥676 (SE = 0.75; $6) and ¥1,420 (SE = 0.52; $12), respectively. During the follow-up period, the non-pet owner to owner ratio of monthly long-term care costs was 1.2 at minimum and 2.3 at maximum. This study showed that monthly long-term care costs for pet owners were approximately half those of non-pet owners. Pet owners might use long-term care services less frequently, or use lighter care services.

Physical, social, and dietary behavioral changes during the COVID-19 crisis and their effects on functional capacity in older adults.

BACKGROUND: This two-year follow-up study aimed to identify factors associated with unhealthy behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic and examine their impact on functional capacity in older adults. METHODS: Altogether, 536 adults aged ≥65 years participated in this study. The frequency of going out, exercise habits, face-to-face and non-face-to-face interactions, social participation, and eating habits were examined as behavioral factors before and after the first declaration of a state of emergency in Japan. Functional capacity was assessed using the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence. RESULTS: Using latent class analysis considering changes in the six behaviors, the participants were divided into healthy (n = 289) and unhealthy (n = 247) behavior groups. The male sex was associated with 2.36 times higher odds, diabetes with 2.19 times higher odds, depressive mood with 1.83 times higher odds, poor subjective economic status with 2.62 times higher odds, and living alone with 44% lower odds of being unhealthy. The unhealthy behavior group showed significantly decreased functional capacity (B =-1.56 [-1.98, -1.14]) than the healthy behavior group. For each behavior, negative changes in going out (B =-0.99 [-1.60, -0.37]), face-to-face interaction (B =-0.65 [-1.16, -0.13]), and non-face-to-face interactions (B =-0.80 [-1.36, -0.25]) were associated with a decline in functional capacity. CONCLUSION: Our results showed four factors associated with engaging in unhealthy lifestyle behaviors and how behavioral changes affect functional capacity decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, which will help to develop public health approaches.

[Development of a risk prediction model and a sample risk chart for long-term care certification based on the functional health of older adults].

Objectives　The first aim of this study was to develop risk prediction models based on age, sex, and functional health to estimate the absolute risk of the 3-year incidence of long-term care certification and to evaluate its performance. The second aim was to produce risk charts showing the probability of the incident long-term care certification as a tool for prompting older adults to engage in healthy behaviors.Methods　This study's data was obtained from older adults, aged ≥65 years, without any disability (i.e., they did not certify≥care level 1) and residing in Yabu, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan (n=5,964). A risk prediction model was developed using a logistic regression model that incorporated age and the Kihon Checklist (KCL) score or the Kaigo-Yobo Checklist (KYCL) score for each sex. The 3-year absolute risk of incidence of the long-term care certification (here defined as≥care level 1) was then calculated. We evaluated the model's discrimination and calibration abilities using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, respectively. For internal validity, the mean AUC was calculated using a 5-fold cross-validation method.Results　After excluding participants with missing KCL (n=4) or KYCL (n=1,516) data, we included 5,960 for the KCL analysis and 4,448 for the KYCL analysis. We identified incident long-term care certification for men and women during the follow-up period: 207 (8.2%) and 390 (11.3%) for KCL analysis and 128 (6.6%) and 256 (10.2%) for KYCL analysis, respectively. For calibration, the χ2 statistic for the risk prediction model using KCL and KYCL was: P=0.26 and P=0.44 in men and P=0.75 and P=0.20 in women, respectively. The AUC (mean AUC) in the KCL model was 0.86 (0.86) in men and 0.83 (0.83) in women. In the KYCL model, the AUC was 0.86 (0.85) in men and 0.85 (0.85) in women. The risk charts had six different colors, suggesting the predicted probability of incident long-term care certification.Conclusions　The risk prediction model demonstrated good discrimination, calibration, and internal validity. The risk charts proposed in our study are easy to use and may help older adults in recognizing their disability risk. These charts may also support health promotion activities by facilitating the assessment and modification of the daily behaviors of older adults in community settings. Further studies with larger sample size and external validity verification are needed to promote the widespread use of risk charts.

Associations of aging trajectories for an index of frailty score with mortality and medical and long-term care costs among older Japanese undergoing health checkups.

AIM: Using up to 13 years of repeated-measures data, we identified aging trajectories for an index in frailty score among older Japanese undergoing health checkups. In addition, we examined whether these trajectories were associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality and healthcare costs. METHODS: In total, 1698 adults aged ≥65 years completed annual assessments during 2002-2014. During follow-up, the average number of follow-up assessments was 3.9, and the total number of observations was 6373. Frailty was defined by using the following criteria from Fried's phenotype: slowness, weakness, exhaustion, low physical activity and weight loss. RESULTS: We identified four aging trajectories for frailty. Specifically, 6.5%, 47.3%, 30.3% and 16.0% of participants were in the high, second, third and low trajectory groups, respectively. As compared with the low trajectory group, the high trajectory group had greater risks of cardiovascular disease (adjusted hazard ratios of 3.42) and other-cause death (adjusted hazard ratios of 3.04). The high trajectory group had the highest medical costs until late in the eighth decade of life, costs decreased after age 70 years and were lowest at age 90 years (estimated at $116.7); however, medical and long-term care costs greatly increased after age 80 years in the second and third trajectory groups. CONCLUSIONS: Higher aging trajectories in frailty score were associated with elevated risks for cardiovascular, other-cause and all-cause death among older Japanese receiving health checkups. Medical and care needs greatly increased for the second and third trajectory groups when their frailty level was progressed in later life. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2020; 20: 1072-1078..

Healthy lifestyle behaviors and transitions in frailty status among independent community-dwelling older adults: The Yabu cohort study.

Frailty is a dynamic condition that can worsen or improve. Although previous studies have identified demographic and intrinsic factors associated with transitions in frailty status, less evidence is available regarding associations with daily activities. This longitudinal study examined associations of behavioral factors with incident frailty, adverse events (e.g. residence in a nursing home, hospitalization, and death), and frailty improvement among older adults. The analysis included data from 3,769 independent older adults aged 65 years or more (mean age, 76.3 ± 7.2years; proportion of frail participants, 30.1%) from the Yabu cohort study (baseline, 2012; follow-up, 2017). The Kaigo-Yobo Checklist, a standardized questionnaire, was used to assess frailty status (non-frail or frail) and seven behavioral factors: farming, shopping, exercise, eating habit, intellectual activity, social participation, and smoking. At the 5-year follow-up survey, the proportions of participants transitioning from non-frail to frail, from non-frail to incident adverse events, from frail to non-frail, and from frail to incident adverse events were 16.8%, 13.9%, 15.2%, and 50.1%, respectively. In the analysis of non-frail participants, farming, exercise, intellectual activity, and social participation were associated with lower odds of becoming frail and experiencing adverse events. In the analysis for frail participants, farming, intellectual activity, and social participation were significantly associated with improvement in frailty status, and farming, shopping, and social participation were associated with lower odds of incident adverse events. These findings suggest that farming, healthy daily activities, and social participation help improve and prevent frailty/adverse events.

Association of trajectories of cognitive function with cause-specific mortality and medical and long-term care costs.

AIM: Cognitive decline increases mortality risk through dementia-related pathways and might be associated with increased healthcare costs. Using up to 12 years of repeated measures data, we identified trajectories in cognitive function among community-dwelling older Japanese adults. We then examined whether these trajectories were associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and differences in healthcare costs. METHODS: A total of 1736 adults aged ≥65 years who were free of disabling dementia completed annual assessments during 2002-2014. Cognitive function was assessed with the Mini-Mental State Examination. The average number of follow-up assessments was 3.9, and the total number of observations was 6824 during the follow-up period. RESULTS: We identified five trajectory patterns in cognitive function (high, second, third, fourth, and low) during the 12-year follow-up period. The low (2.0%) and fourth (2.2%) trajectory groups had higher hazard ratios for cardiovascular disease mortality, and hazard ratios for other cause mortality were significantly higher for the third (16.8%) and second (38.8%) trajectory groups than for the high trajectory group (40.3%). Until 5 years of follow up, participants in the two lower-trajectory groups had higher mean combined monthly medical and long-term care costs. After 8 years of follow up, mean costs were highest for the third trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of death from cardiovascular disease was higher in the two lower-trajectory groups in cognitive function, and they showed higher healthcare costs during the first 5 years of follow up. After 8 years of follow up, the third trajectory had the highest healthcare costs, perhaps because of hospitalizations attributable to gradual cognitive decline. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 1236-1242.

Pathway from gait speed to incidence of disability and mortality in older adults: A mediating role of physical activity.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether physical activity mediates the association of gait speed with incident disability and mortality in older adults. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort data from 782 community-dwelling Japanese older adults were analyzed. The median follow-up periods for incident disability and mortality were 4.4 and 4.5 years, respectively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Physical activity was assessed with the Japan Arteriosclerosis Longitudinal Study Physical Activity Questionnaire, gait speed was calculated from 5-m walking time, and incident disability was defined as long-term care insurance certification during follow-up. RESULTS: There were 247 cases of incident disability and 202 deaths during follow-up. After adjusting for potential confounders, faster gait speed was associated with decreased risk of incident disability (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.82-0.93), but physical activity level was not associated with incident disability (HR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.95-1.01). Gait speed was associated with mortality risk in the model without physical activity (HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.88-1.00). When gait speed and physical activity were both included in the model, gait speed was not associated with mortality (HR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.89-1.02) but physical activity was associated with mortality (HR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.92-0.99). Physical activity was a mediating factor in the association between gait speed and mortality (Sobel test p = .025). CONCLUSIONS: Gait speed is directly associated with incident disability and is indirectly related to mortality through physical activity in older adults.