Cost Effectiveness of the Baveno VI Criteria Compared With Endoscopy for High-Risk Varices in Patients With Child-Pugh A Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (EGD) remains the gold standard for detecting varices in cirrhosis, the Baveno VI criteria proposed a combination of transient elastography and platelet count that could rule out high-risk varices, therefore sparing the need for an endoscopy, with significant potential cost savings. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of the Baveno VI criteria compared with EGD in the diagnosis of high-risk varices in cirrhosis. METHODS: We built an analytical decision model to estimate the cost and benefits of using the Baveno VI criteria compared with EGD in patients with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis. The analysis was performed from the UK National Health Service perspective, over 1, 5, and 20 years. A Markov model was populated with data from published evidence. Outcomes were measured in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and avoided deaths. The analyses were repeated for Canada and Spain, using relevant cost inputs. RESULTS: The Baveno VI criteria were cost effective compared with endoscopy in all analyses. For 1000 patients, they produced 0.16 additional QALYs at an incremental cost of £326 ($443.41) over 5 years, resulting in an incremental cost of £2081 ($2830) per additional QALY gained. The incremental net monetary benefit of Baveno VI compared with EGD was £2808 ($3819) over 5 years per patient. Baveno VI criteria also were cost effective in Canada and Spain. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis supported these findings. CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrate that the Baveno VI criteria are cost effective, suggesting that they should be considered for widespread implementation on the basis of safety, appropriateness, and economic grounds.

Enhancing ACLF prediction by integrating sarcopenia assessment and frailty in liver transplant candidates on the waiting list.

Background & Aims: Malnutrition, sarcopenia, and frailty are prevalent in cirrhosis. We aimed to assess the correlation between assessment tools for malnutrition, sarcopenia, and frailty in patients on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list (WL), and to identify a predictive model for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) development. Methods: This prospective single-center study enrolled consecutive patients with cirrhosis on the WL for LT (May 2019-November 2021). Assessments included subjective global assessment, CT body composition, skeletal muscle index (SMI), ultrasound thigh muscle thickness, sarcopenia HIBA score, liver frailty index (LFI), hand grip strength, and 6-minute walk test at enrollment. Correlations were analyzed using Pearson's correlation. Competing risk regression analysis was used to assess the predictive ability of the liver- and functional physiological reserve-related variables for ACLF. Results: A total of 132 patients, predominantly with decompensated cirrhosis (87%), were included. Our study revealed a high prevalence of malnutrition (61%), sarcopenia (61%), visceral obesity (20%), sarcopenic visceral obesity (17%), and frailty (10%) among participants. Correlations between the assessment tools for sarcopenia and frailty were poor. Sarcopenia by SMI remained prevalent when frailty assessments were not usable. After a median follow-up of 10 months, 39% of the patients developed ACLF on WL, while 28% experienced dropouts without ACLF. Multivariate analysis identified MELD-Na, SMI, and LFI as independent predictors of ACLF on the WL. The predictive model MELD-Na-sarcopenia-LFI had a C-statistic of 0.85. Conclusions: The poor correlation between sarcopenia assessment tools and frailty underscores the importance of a comprehensive evaluation. The SMI, LFI, and MELD-Na independently predicted ACLF development in WL. These findings enhance our understanding of the relationship between sarcopenia, frailty, and ACLF in patients awaiting LT, emphasizing the need for early detection and intervention to improve WL outcomes. Impact and implications: The relationship between sarcopenia and frailty assessment tools, as well as their ability to predict acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list (WL), remains poorly understood. Existing objective frailty screening tests have limitations when applied to critically ill patients. The correlation between sarcopenia and frailty assessment tools was weak, suggesting that they may capture different phenotypes. Sarcopenia assessed by skeletal muscle index, frailty evaluated using the liver frailty index, and the model for end-stage liver disease-Na score independently predicted the development of ACLF in patients on the WL. Our findings support the integration of liver frailty index and skeletal muscle index assessments at the time of inclusion on the WL for LT. This combined approach allows for the identification of a specific patient subgroup with an increased susceptibility to ACLF, underscoring the importance of early implementation of targeted treatment strategies to improve outcomes for patients awaiting LT.

Noninvasive assessment of hepatic decompensation.

Noninvasive tests (NITs) are used in all aspects of liver disease management. Their most prominent break-through since the millennium has been in advancing early detection of liver fibrosis, but their use is not limited to this. In contrast to the symptom-driven assessment of decompensation in patients with cirrhosis, NITs provide not only opportunities for earlier diagnoses but also accurate prognostication, targeted treatment decisions, and a means of monitoring disease. NITs can inform disease management and decision-making based on validated cutoffs and standardized interpretations as a valuable supplement to clinical acumen. The Baveno VI and VII consensus meetings resulted in tangible improvements to pathways of care for patients with compensated and decompensated advanced chronic liver disease, including the combination of platelet count and transient elastography to diagnose clinically significant portal hypertension. Furthermore, circulating NITs will play increasingly important roles in assessing the response to interventions against ascites, variceal bleeding, HE, acute kidney injury, and infections. However, due to NITs' wide availability, there is a risk of inaccurate use, leading to a waste of resources and flawed decisions. In this review, we describe the uses and pitfalls of NITs for hepatic decompensation, from risk stratification in primary care to treatment decisions in outpatient clinics, as well as for the in-hospital management of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure. We summarize which NITs to use when, for what indications, and how to maximize the potential of NITs for improved patient management.

The Assessment of Driving Fitness Using an On-Road Evaluation in Patients With Cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: The association between cirrhosis and driving performance is of particular clinical relevance because of the life-threatening safety issues both for the driver with cirrhosis and the general public. Study aims were to assess (i) driving competency through the use of an in-office computerized battery and on-road driving assessment (DriveABLE) and (ii) the association between minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE), in-office paper-pencil tools, and additional measures (e.g., frailty, depression, cognitive testing) with unsafe driving. METHODS: Patients were prospectively recruited from 2 tertiary care liver clinics. In-office tests and in-office and on-road assessments of driving competence were completed. The χ 2 test and 1-way analysis of variance were used to analyze differences among those with and without MHE. Logistic regression was used to evaluate predictors of an indeterminate/fail result on the in-office computerized driving assessment battery (DriveABLE Cognitive Assessment Tool [DCAT]). RESULTS: Eighty patients participated with a mean age of 57 years, 70% male, 75% Child-Pugh B/C, and 36% with a history of overt hepatic encephalopathy. Thirty percent met MHE criteria on both the psychometric hepatic encephalopathy score and the Stroop app tests. Only 2 patients (3%) were categorized as "unfit to drive" in the on-road driving test, one with MHE and the other without. Fifty-eight percent of the patients were scored as indeterminate/fail on the DCAT. This corresponded to a higher mean number of on-road driving errors (5.3 [SD 2.1] vs 4.2 [SD 1.6] in those who passed the DCAT, P = 0.01). Older age (odds ratio 1.3; confidence interval 1.1, 1.5; P = 0.001) and MHE by Stroop/psychometric hepatic encephalopathy score (odds ratio 11.0; confidence interval 2.3, 51.8; P = 0.002) were independently predictive of worse performance on the DCAT. DISCUSSION: Worse performance in in-office testing was associated with worse scores on a computerized driving assessment battery and more on-road driving errors, but in-office tools were insufficient to predict on-road driving failures. A diagnosis of MHE should not be used alone to restrict driving in patients with cirrhosis. At-risk patients require on-road driving tests under the supervision of driving regulatory agencies. Future studies should continue to refine and evaluate in-office or at-home testing to predict driving performance.

Noninvasive assessment oesophageal varices: impact of the Baveno VI criteria.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In 2015, as a consequence of the high development in noninvasive tests, Baveno VI consensus recommended for the first time the use of a prediction rule (liver stiffness <20kPa and platelet count > 150000) to identify patients at low risk of having varices and that could circumvent endoscopy. These became known as the Baveno VI criteria. We review here the data validating Baveno VI criteria and we discuss the attempts of expanding these criteria. RECENT FINDINGS: We report 28 studies assessing the performance of Baveno VI criteria showing a pooled 99% negative predictive value for ruling out high-risk varices. Performance is not affected by the cause of cirrhosis. Different attempts at expanding these criteria show suboptimal performance. Nonelastography-based criteria require further validation. SUMMARY: Baveno VI criteria can be safely used to avoid endoscopy in a substantial proportion of patients with compensated cirrhosis. The progressive change in approach to the management of compensated cirrhosis, progressively focusing on treating portal hypertension with beta-blockers independently of the presence of varices, might render these criteria less relevant.

The cirrhosis care Alberta (CCAB) protocol: implementing an evidence-based best practice order set for the management of liver cirrhosis - a hybrid type I effectiveness-implementation trial.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a leading cause of morbidity, premature mortality and acute care utilization in patients with digestive disease. In the province of Alberta, hospital readmission rates for patients with cirrhosis are estimated at 44% at 90 days. For hospitalized patients, multiple care gaps exist, the most notable stemming from i) the lack of a structured approach to best practice care for cirrhosis complications, ii) the lack of a structured approach to broader health needs and iii) suboptimal preparation for transition of care into the community. Cirrhosis Care Alberta (CCAB) is a 4-year multi-component pragmatic trial which aims to address these gaps. The proposed intervention is initiated at the time of hospitalization through implementation of a clinical information system embedded electronic order set for delivering evidence-based best practices under real-world conditions. The overarching objective of the CCAB trial is to demonstrate effectiveness and implementation feasibility for use of the order set in routine patient care within eight hospital sites in Alberta. METHODS: A mixed methods hybrid type I effectiveness-implementation design will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the order set intervention. The primary outcome is a reduction in 90-day cumulative length of stay. Implementation outcomes such as reach, adoption, fidelity and maintenance will also be evaluated alongside other patient and service outcomes such as readmission rates, quality of care and cost-effectiveness. This theory-based trial will be guided by Normalization Process Theory, Consolidated Framework on Implementation Research (CFIR) and the Reach-Effectiveness-Adoption-Implementation-Maintenance (RE-AIM) Framework. DISCUSSION: The CCAB project is unique in its breadth, both in the comprehensiveness of the multi-component order set and also for the breadth of its roll-out. Lessons learned will ultimately inform the feasibility and effectiveness of this approach in "real-world" conditions as well as adoption and adaptation of these best practices within the rest of Alberta, other provinces in Canada, and beyond. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04149223, November 4, 2019.

A MELD-based model to determine risk of mortality among patients with acute variceal bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) have high mortality rates (15%-20%). Previously described models are seldom used to determine prognoses of these patients, partially because they have not been validated externally and because they include subjective variables, such as bleeding during endoscopy and Child-Pugh score, which are evaluated inconsistently. We aimed to improve determination of risk for patients with AVB. METHODS: We analyzed data collected from 178 patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh scores of A, B, and C: 15%, 57%, and 28%, respectively) and esophageal AVB who received standard therapy from 2007 through 2010. We tested the performance (discrimination and calibration) of previously described models, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and developed a new MELD calibration to predict the mortality of patients within 6 weeks of presentation with AVB. MELD-based predictions were validated in cohorts of patients from Canada (n = 240) and Spain (n = 221). RESULTS: Among study subjects, the 6-week mortality rate was 16%. MELD was the best model in terms of discrimination; it was recalibrated to predict the 6-week mortality rate with logistic regression (logit, -5.312 + 0.207 • MELD; bootstrapped R(2), 0.3295). MELD values of 19 or greater predicted 20% or greater mortality, whereas MELD scores less than 11 predicted less than 5% mortality. The model performed well for patients from Canada at all risk levels. In the Spanish validation set, in which all patients were treated with banding ligation, MELD predictions were accurate up to the 20% risk threshold. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a MELD-based model that accurately predicts mortality among patients with AVB, based on objective variables available at admission. This model could be useful to evaluate the efficacy of new therapies and stratify patients in randomized trials.

Assessment of portal hypertension by transient elastography in patients with compensated cirrhosis and potentially resectable liver tumors.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis and small hepatocellular carcinoma with normal bilirubin and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) <10 mm Hg have >70% 5-year survival after hepatic resection. On the contrary, patients with HVPG ≥10 mm Hg (clinically significant portal hypertension, CSPH) frequently develop decompensation following surgery, with around 50% 5-year survival. Liver stiffness (LS) evaluation by transient elastography might non-invasively identify CSPH. We investigated the usefulness of LS predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and potentially resectable liver tumors. METHODS: Ninety-seven consecutive Child-Pugh A patients with potentially resectable liver tumors referred for HVPG measurement were prospectively evaluated. In fasting conditions LS was measured before the hemodynamic study. RESULTS: HVPG could be measured in all patients, whereas LS could not be measured in 18 (18.5%) obese patients. In the 79 patients with valid LS, 32 (40.5%) had CSPH; mean HVPG was 8.8±4.7 mm Hg. Mean LS was 18.4±12.3 kPa. LS showed a moderate correlation with HVPG (r=0.552; p<0.001). LS<13.6 kPa had high sensitivity (91%) but low specificity (57%) excluding CSPH. Conversely, LS>21 kPa had low sensitivity (53%) and high specificity (91%) predicting CSPH. 35% of patients had LS between 13.6 and 21 kPa ("grey zone"). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that in real-life scenarios half of patients with potentially resectable liver nodules can be non-invasively classified as having or not CSPH by LS. However, in the remaining half, LS is either not applicable or inaccurate. In this last population HVPG is still a non replaceable method to detect CSPH.