Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids in Nigeria: cost-effectiveness analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Nigeria is committed to reducing industrial trans-fatty acids (iTFA) from the food supply, but the potential health gains, costs and cost-effectiveness are unknown. METHODS: The effect on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) burden, costs and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) for foods in Nigeria were estimated using Markov cohort models. Data on demographics, IHD epidemiology and trans-fatty acid intake were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Avoided IHD events and deaths; health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained; and healthcare, policy implementation and net costs were estimated over 10 years and the population's lifetime. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using net costs and HALYs gained (both discounted at 3%) were used to assess cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Over the first 10 years, a mandatory iTFA limit (assumed to eliminate iTFA intake) was estimated to prevent 9996 (95% uncertainty interval: 8870 to 11 118) IHD deaths and 66 569 (58 862 to 74 083) IHD events, and to save US$90 million (78 to 102) in healthcare costs. The corresponding lifetime estimates were 259 934 (228 736 to 290 191), 479 308 (95% UI 420 472 to 538 177) and 518 (450 to 587). Policy implementation costs were estimated at US$17 million (11 to 23) over the first 10 years, and US$26 million USD (19 to 33) over the population's lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost-saving, and findings were robust across several deterministic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Our findings support mandating a limit of iTFAs as a cost-saving strategy to reduce the IHD burden in Nigeria.

Human dietary exposure to chemicals in sub-Saharan Africa: safety assessment through a total diet study.

BACKGROUND: Human dietary exposure to chemicals can result in a wide range of adverse health effects. Some substances might cause non-communicable diseases, including cancer and coronary heart diseases, and could be nephrotoxic. Food is the main human exposure route for many chemicals. We aimed to assess human dietary exposure to a wide range of food chemicals. METHODS: We did a total diet study in Benin, Cameroon, Mali, and Nigeria. We assessed 4020 representative samples of foods, prepared as consumed, which covered more than 90% of the diet of 7291 households from eight study centres. By combining representative dietary surveys of countries with findings for concentrations of 872 chemicals in foods, we characterised human dietary exposure. FINDINGS: Exposure to lead could result in increases in adult blood pressure up to 2·0 mm Hg, whereas children might lose 8·8-13·3 IQ points (95th percentile in Kano, Nigeria). Morbidity factors caused by coexposure to aflatoxin B1 and hepatitis B virus, and sterigmatocystin and fumonisins, suggest several thousands of additional liver cancer cases per year, and a substantial contribution to the burden of chronic malnutrition in childhood. Exposure to 13 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from consumption of smoked fish and edible oils exceeded levels associated with possible carcinogenicity and genotoxicity health concerns in all study centres. Exposure to aluminium, ochratoxin A, and citrinin indicated a public health concern about nephropathies. From 470 pesticides tested across the four countries, only high concentrations of chlorpyrifos in smoked fish (unauthorised practice identified in Mali) could pose a human health risk. INTERPRETATION: Risks characterised by this total diet study underscore specific priorities in terms of food safety management in sub-Saharan Africa. Similar investigations specifically targeting children are crucially needed. FUNDING: Standards and Trade Development Facility.