Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: A few studies have assessed the epidemiological impact and the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in settings where most of the population had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya from a societal perspective over a 1.5-year time frame. An age-structured transmission model assumed at least 80% of the population to have prior natural immunity when an immune escape variant was introduced. We examine the effect of slow (18 months) or rapid (6 months) vaccine roll-out with vaccine coverage of 30%, 50% or 70% of the adult (>18 years) population prioritising roll-out in those over 50-years (80% uptake in all scenarios). Cost data were obtained from primary analyses. We assumed vaccine procurement at US$7 per dose and vaccine delivery costs of US$3.90-US$6.11 per dose. The cost-effectiveness threshold was US$919.11. FINDINGS: Slow roll-out at 30% coverage largely targets those over 50 years and resulted in 54% fewer deaths (8132 (7914-8373)) than no vaccination and was cost saving (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ICER=US$-1343 (US$-1345 to US$-1341) per disability-adjusted life-year, DALY averted). Increasing coverage to 50% and 70%, further reduced deaths by 12% (810 (757-872) and 5% (282 (251-317) but was not cost-effective, using Kenya's cost-effectiveness threshold (US$919.11). Rapid roll-out with 30% coverage averted 63% more deaths and was more cost-saving (ICER=US$-1607 (US$-1609 to US$-1604) per DALY averted) compared with slow roll-out at the same coverage level, but 50% and 70% coverage scenarios were not cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: With prior exposure partially protecting much of the Kenyan population, vaccination of young adults may no longer be cost-effective.

Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance.

Genomic sequencing provides critical information to track the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2, optimize molecular tests, treatments and vaccines, and guide public health responses. To investigate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, we estimated the impact of sequencing intensity and turnaround times (TAT) on variant detection in 167 countries. Most countries submit genomes >21 days after sample collection, and 77% of low and middle income countries sequenced <0.5% of their cases. We found that sequencing at least 0.5% of the cases, with a TAT <21 days, could be a benchmark for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance efforts. Socioeconomic inequalities substantially impact our ability to quickly detect SARS-CoV-2 variants, and undermine the global pandemic preparedness.

Evolution of respiratory syncytial virus genotype BA in Kilifi, Kenya, 15 years on.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is recognised as a leading cause of severe acute respiratory disease and deaths among infants and vulnerable adults. Clinical RSV isolates can be divided into several known genotypes. RSV genotype BA, characterised by a 60-nucleotide duplication in the G glycoprotein gene, emerged in 1999 and quickly disseminated globally replacing other RSV group B genotypes. Continual molecular epidemiology is critical to understand the evolutionary processes maintaining the success of the BA viruses. We analysed 735 G gene sequences from samples collected from paediatric patients in Kilifi, Kenya, between 2003 and 2017. The virus population comprised of several genetically distinct variants (n = 56) co-circulating within and between epidemics. In addition, there was consistent seasonal fluctuations in relative genetic diversity. Amino acid changes increasingly accumulated over the surveillance period including two residues (N178S and Q180R) that mapped to monoclonal antibody 2D10 epitopes, as well as addition of putative N-glycosylation sequons. Further, switching and toggling of amino acids within and between epidemics was observed. On a global phylogeny, the BA viruses from different countries form geographically isolated clusters suggesting substantial localized variants. This study offers insights into longitudinal population dynamics of a globally endemic RSV genotype within a discrete location.