Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: A few studies have assessed the epidemiological impact and the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in settings where most of the population had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya from a societal perspective over a 1.5-year time frame. An age-structured transmission model assumed at least 80% of the population to have prior natural immunity when an immune escape variant was introduced. We examine the effect of slow (18 months) or rapid (6 months) vaccine roll-out with vaccine coverage of 30%, 50% or 70% of the adult (>18 years) population prioritising roll-out in those over 50-years (80% uptake in all scenarios). Cost data were obtained from primary analyses. We assumed vaccine procurement at US$7 per dose and vaccine delivery costs of US$3.90-US$6.11 per dose. The cost-effectiveness threshold was US$919.11. FINDINGS: Slow roll-out at 30% coverage largely targets those over 50 years and resulted in 54% fewer deaths (8132 (7914-8373)) than no vaccination and was cost saving (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ICER=US$-1343 (US$-1345 to US$-1341) per disability-adjusted life-year, DALY averted). Increasing coverage to 50% and 70%, further reduced deaths by 12% (810 (757-872) and 5% (282 (251-317) but was not cost-effective, using Kenya's cost-effectiveness threshold (US$919.11). Rapid roll-out with 30% coverage averted 63% more deaths and was more cost-saving (ICER=US$-1607 (US$-1609 to US$-1604) per DALY averted) compared with slow roll-out at the same coverage level, but 50% and 70% coverage scenarios were not cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: With prior exposure partially protecting much of the Kenyan population, vaccination of young adults may no longer be cost-effective.

Measuring and monitoring child health and wellbeing: recommendations for tracking progress with a core set of indicators in the Sustainable Development Goals era.

Although great improvements in child survival were achieved in the past two decades, progress has been uneven within and across countries, and the COVID-19 pandemic threatens to reverse previous advances. Demographic and epidemiological transitions around the world have resulted in shifts in the causes and distribution of child death and diseases, and many children are living with short-term and long-term chronic illnesses and disabilities. These changes, plus global threats such as pandemics, transnational and national security issues, and climate change, mean that regular monitoring of child health and wellbeing is essential if we are to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. This Health Policy describes the three-phased process undertaken by the Child Health Accountability Tracking technical advisory group (CHAT) to develop a core set of indicators on child health and wellbeing for global monitoring purposes, and presents CHAT's research recommendations to address data gaps. CHAT reached consensus on 20 core indicators specific to the health sector, which include 11 impact-level indicators and nine outcome-level indicators that cover the topics of: acute conditions and prevention; health promotion and child development; and chronic conditions, disabilities, injuries, and violence against children. An additional six indicators (three impact and three outcome) that capture information on child health issues such as malaria and HIV are recommended; however, these indicators are only relevant to high-burden regions. CHAT's four research priorities will require investments in health information systems and measurement activities. These investments will help to increase data on children aged 5-9 years; develop standard metadata and data collection processes to enable cross-country comparisons and progress assessments over time; reach a global consensus on essential interventions and associated indicators for monitoring emerging priority areas such as child development, chronic conditions, disabilities, and injuries; and implement strategies to increase the uptake of data on child health to improve evidence-based planning, programming, and advocacy efforts.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of essential and advanced critical care for COVID-19 patients in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Case management of symptomatic COVID-19 patients is a key health system intervention. The Kenyan government embarked to fill capacity gaps in essential and advanced critical care (ACC) needed for the management of severe and critical COVID-19. However, given scarce resources, gaps in both essential and ACC persist. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of investments in essential and ACC to inform the prioritisation of investment decisions. METHODS: We employed a decision tree model to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness of investment in essential care (EC) and investment in both essential and ACC (EC +ACC) compared with current healthcare provision capacity (status quo) for COVID-19 patients in Kenya. We used a health system perspective, and an inpatient care episode time horizon. Cost data were obtained from primary empirical analysis while outcomes data were obtained from epidemiological model estimates. We used univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of the results. RESULTS: The status quo option is more costly and less effective compared with investment in EC and is thus dominated by the later. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of investment in essential and ACC (EC+ACC) was US$1378.21 per disability-adjusted life-year averted and hence not a cost-effective strategy when compared with Kenya's cost-effectiveness threshold (US$908). CONCLUSION: When the criterion of cost-effectiveness is considered, and within the context of resource scarcity, Kenya will achieve better value for money if it prioritises investments in EC before investments in ACC. This information on cost-effectiveness will however need to be considered as part of a multicriteria decision-making framework that uses a range of criteria that reflect societal values of the Kenyan society.

Prevalence and fluid management of dehydration in children without diarrhoea admitted to Kenyan hospitals: a multisite observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prevalence of dehydration without diarrhoea among admitted children aged 1-59 months and to describe fluid management practices in such cases. DESIGN: A multisite observational study that used routine in-patient data collected prospectively between October 2013 and December 2018. SETTINGS: Study conducted in 13 county referral hospitals in Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: Children aged 1-59 months with admission or discharge diagnosis of dehydration but had no diarrhoea as a symptom or diagnosis. Children aged <28 days and those with severe acute malnutrition were excluded. RESULTS: The prevalence of dehydration in children without diarrhoea was 3.0% (2019/68 204) and comprised 15.9% (2019/12 702) of all dehydration cases. Only 55.8% (1127/2019) of affected children received either oral or intravenous fluid therapy. Where fluid treatment was given, the volumes, type of fluid, duration of fluid therapy and route of administration were similar to those used in the treatment of dehydration secondary to diarrhoea. Pneumonia (1021/2019, 50.6%) and malaria (715/2019, 35.4%) were the two most common comorbid diagnoses. Overall case fatality in the study population was 12.9% (260/2019). CONCLUSION: Sixteen per cent of children hospitalised with dehydration do not have diarrhoea but other common illnesses. Two-fifths do not receive fluid therapy; a regimen similar to that used in diarrhoeal cases is used in cases where fluid is administered. Efforts to promote compliance with guidance in routine clinical settings should recognise special circumstances where guidelines do not apply, and further studies on appropriate management for dehydration in the absence of diarrhoea are required.

Building Learning Health Systems to Accelerate Research and Improve Outcomes of Clinical Care in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Mike English and colleagues argue that as efforts are made towards achieving universal health coverage it is also important to build capacity to develop regionally relevant evidence to improve healthcare.

Prevalence and correlates of treatment failure among Kenyan children hospitalised with severe community-acquired pneumonia: a prospective study of the clinical effectiveness of WHO pneumonia case management guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent and pattern of treatment failure (TF) among children hospitalised with community-acquired pneumonia at a large tertiary hospital in Kenya. METHODS: We followed up children aged 2-59 months with WHO-defined severe pneumonia (SP) and very severe pneumonia (VSP) for up to 5 days for TF using two definitions: (i) documentation of pre-defined clinical signs resulting in change of treatment (ii) primary clinician's decision to change treatment with or without documentation of the same pre-defined clinical signs. RESULTS: We enrolled 385 children. The risk of TF varied between 1.8% (95% CI 0.4-5.1) and 12.4% (95% CI 7.9-18.4) for SP and 21.4% (95% CI 15.9-27) and 39.3% (95% CI 32.5-46.4) for VSP depending on the definition applied. Higher rates were associated with early changes in therapy by clinician in the absence of an obvious clinical rationale. Non-adherence to treatment guidelines was observed for 70/169 (41.4%) and 67/201 (33.3%) of children with SP and VSP, respectively. Among children with SP, adherence to treatment guidelines was associated with the presence of wheeze on initial assessment (P = 0.02), while clinician non-adherence to guideline-recommended treatments for VSP tended to occur in children with altered consciousness (P < 0.001). Using propensity score matching to account for imbalance in the distribution of baseline clinical characteristics among children with VSP revealed no difference in TF between those treated with the guideline-recommended regimen vs. more costly broad-spectrum alternatives [risk difference 0.37 (95% CI -0.84 to 0.51)]. CONCLUSION: Before revising current pneumonia case management guidelines, standardised definitions of TF and appropriate studies of treatment effectiveness of alternative regimens are required.

Trends in procurement costs for HIV commodities: a 7-year retrospective analysis of global fund data across 125 countries.

BACKGROUND: Nearly 40% of Global Fund money goes toward procurement. However, no analyses have been published to show how costs vary across regions and time, despite the availability of procurement data collected through the Global Fund's price and quality reporting system. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed data for the 3 most widely procured commodities for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of HIV. These were male condoms, HIV rapid tests, and the antiretroviral (ARV) combination of lamivudine/nevirapine/zidovudine. The compared costs, first across time (2005-2012), then across regions, and finally, between individual procurement reported through the price and quality reporting and pooled procurement reported through the Global Fund's voluntary pooled procurement system. All costs were adjusted for inflation and reported in US dollars. KEY FINDINGS: There were 2337 entries from 578 grants in 125 countries. The procurement cost for the ARV dropped substantially over the period, whereas those for condoms and HIV tests remained relatively stable. None of the commodity prices increased. Regional variations were pronounced for HIV tests, but minimal for condoms and the ARV. The unit cost for the 3-table ARV combination, for instance, varied between US$0.15 and US$0.23 in South Asia and the Eastern Europe/Central Asia regions, respectively, compared with a range of $0.23 (South Asia)-$1.50 (Eastern Europe/Central Asia) for a single diagnostic test. Pooled procurement lowered costs for condoms but not the other commodities. CONCLUSIONS: We showed how global procurement costs vary by region and time. Such analyses should be done more often to identify and correct market insufficiencies.

Regional and temporal trends in malaria commodity costs: an analysis of Global Fund data for 79 countries.

BACKGROUND: Although procurement consumes nearly 40% of Global Fund's money, no analyses have been published to show how costs vary across regions and time. This paper presents an analysis of malaria-related commodity procurement data from 79 countries, as reported through the Global Fund's price and quality reporting (PQR) system for the 2005-2012 period. METHODS: Data were analysed for the three most widely procured commodities for prevention, diagnosis and treatment of malaria. These were long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs), malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and the artemether/lumefantrine (AL) combination treatment. Costs were compared across time (2005-2012), regions, and between individual procurement reported through the PQR and pooled procurement reported through the Global Fund's voluntary pooled procurement (VPP) system. All costs were adjusted for inflation and reported in US dollars. RESULTS: The data included 1,514 entries reported from 79 countries over seven years. Of these, 492 entries were for LLINs, 330 for RDTs and 692 for AL. Considerable variations were seen by commodity, although none showed an increase in cost. The costs for LLINs, RDTs and AL all dropped significantly over the period of analysis. Regional variations were also seen, with the cost for all three commodities showing significant variations. The median cost for a single LLIN ranged from USD 4.3 in East Asia to USD 5.0 in West and Central Africa. The cost of a single RDT was lowest in West and Central Africa at US$ 0.57, and highest in the Latin American region at US$ 1.1. AL had the narrowest margin of between US$ 0.06 per tablet in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, and US$ 0.08 in the Latin American and Eastern Europe regions. CONCLUSION: This paper concludes that global procurement costs do vary by region and have reduced overall over time. This suggests a mature market is operating when viewed from the global level, but regional variation needs further attention. Such analyses should be done more often to identify and correct market insufficiencies.