Impact assessment of self-medication on COVID-19 prevalence in Gauteng, South Africa, using an age-structured disease transmission modelling framework.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of self-medication on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 across different age groups, examine the interplay of vaccination and self-medication in disease spread, and identify the age group most prone to self-medication. METHODS: We developed an age-structured compartmentalized epidemiological model to track the early dynamics of COVID-19. Age-structured data from the Government of Gauteng, encompassing the reported cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases, were used to calibrate the model through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework. Subsequently, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted on the model parameters. RESULTS: We found that self-medication is predominant among the age group 15-64 (74.52%), followed by the age group 0-14 (34.02%), and then the age group 65+ (11.41%). The mean values of the basic reproduction number, the size of the first epidemic peak (the highest magnitude of the disease), and the time of the first epidemic peak (when the first highest magnitude occurs) are 4.16499, 241,715 cases, and 190.376 days, respectively. Moreover, we observed that self-medication among individuals aged 15-64 results in the highest spreading rate of COVID-19 at the onset of the outbreak and has the greatest impact on the first epidemic peak and its timing. CONCLUSION: Studies aiming to understand the dynamics of diseases in areas prone to self-medication should account for this practice. There is a need for a campaign against COVID-19-related self-medication, specifically targeting the active population (ages 15-64).

Food insecurity, body mass index, socio-economic status, and food intake in lactating and non-lactating mothers with children under two years.

BACKGROUND: food insecurity (FI) is considered as an essential public health problem which may have detrimental effects on people's health. The aim of present study was to evaluate FI, body mass index, quantity and quality of food intake in lactating and non-lactating mothers with children under two years. METHODS: in this cross-sectional study 307 mothers (237 lactating and 70 non-lactating) were participated. Socio-economic and demographic information were gathered by questionnaires. FI of families was evaluated by the questionnaire of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Household Food Security. For assessing quality and quantity of food intake of mothers, dietary diversity score (DDS), diet quality index-international (DQI-I) and nutrient adequacy ratio (NAR) were calculated. Weight and height of participants were measured and body mass index (BMI) was calculated. Finally, Chi-squared test, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and linear regression were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: in this study the rate of underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obesity in mothers was 0.3%, 39.2%, 42.3%, and 18.2%, respectively. Among the determinants of BMI, household food security status had the greatest effect (Beta=-1.584, P < 0.001) and mother age had the least effect (Beta = 0.101, P = 0.013). Mother's occupational and educational status, having facilities, physiological status of mother, and house size had significant correlation with NAR. Mother's occupational and educational status, and having facilities had significant relationship with DDS, too. Also, the significant correlation of Mother's education, having facilities, and physiological status of mother with DQI-I were found. CONCLUSIONS: we found that Household food security status had the most effect on BMI of mothers. In this study, the best nutrient adequacy and dietary diversity were found in the obese group and the most diet quality was found in the normal weight group.

Determination of metal(oids) in different traditional flat breads distributed in Isfahan city, Iran: Health risk assessment study by latin hypercube sampling.

This survey was conducted to assess the metal(oids) content in 93 samples of bread, including barbari, lavash, and tafton, using inductive couple plasma/optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) method and atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS). The amounts of measured element were compared with the permissible limit set for bread by FAO/WHO and Iranian National Standardization Organization (INSO). The limit of detection (LOD) was ranged from 6.6 × 10-5 to 2.1 × 10-2 mg l-1 with recoveries ranged from 92% to 102%. The average concentrations of aluminum (Al), arsenic (As), boron (B), cadmium (Cd), iron (Fe), mercury (Hg), magnesium (Mg), sodium (Na), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) in bread were 29.88 ±â€¯8, 0.03 ±â€¯0.004, 12.77 ±â€¯3.70, 0.01 ±â€¯0.006, 34.16 ±â€¯8.95, 0.01 ±â€¯0.008, 346.07 ±â€¯36.08, 3314.81 ±â€¯317.19, 0.24 ±â€¯0.11, and 19.65 ±â€¯4.66 mg Kg-1, respectively. Amounts of As, Cd, Hg, Mg, Pb, and Zn were lower, and those of Al, Fe, and Na were higher than the permissible limits defined by FAO/WHO. The Latin Hyper Cube (LHC) sampling results revealed that children were exposed to higher non-carcinogenic risk and adults were more threatened by carcinogenic risk. It is recommended to control the entrance of metals in bread in the farm-to-fork chain in order to prevent probable future health challenges.

Type 2 Diabetes Health Literacy Assessment Tool: Translation and Psychometric Evaluation of the Iranian Version.

Background: Adequate health literacy can lead to self-care behaviors among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Although there is an instrument for measuring the health literacy of patients with diabetes, there is no Persian version of the instrument in Iran. Objectives: The aim of this study was to translate the Chinese Health Literacy Scale for Diabetes (CHLSD) and evaluate the psychometric parameters of the Iranian version. Methods: In this methodological study, using a standard forward-backward translation procedure, the original English language version of the questionnaire was translated into Persian. Face and content validity steps were performed for psychometric measurements. To perform construct (convergent) validity, a cross-sectional study was carried out with the participation of T2D patients admitted to the diabetes clinic (aged over 25 years old). To test the reliability, internal consistency was assessed by Kuder-Richardson (K-R) coefficient, and a test-retest was performed by Spearman correlation coefficient. Results: A total of 283 patients with T2D (mean age: 52.4 years and standard deviation: 11.5) were included in the study. The factor loadings of the variables were checked by calculating the correlation value of the characteristics of a construct with that construct, whose value was greater than 0.4. The K-R coefficients for the whole instrument and its four subscales (remembering, application, analysis, and comprehension) were 0.8, 0.71, 0.73, 0.87, and 0.89, respectively. Re-testing of the instrument with an interval of two weeks indicated the acceptable stability of the instrument (ICC ≥ 0.8). Conclusions: Our findings showed that the Iranian version of CHLSD is a valid and reliable instrument for measuring the health literacy in patients with diabetes.

A cross-country analysis of macroeconomic responses to COVID-19 pandemic using Twitter sentiments.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on the global economy. In this paper, we use the Phillips curve to compare and analyze the macroeconomics of three different countries with distinct income levels, namely, lower-middle (Nigeria), upper-middle (South Africa), and high (Canada) income. We aim to (1) find macroeconomic changes in the three countries during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic time, (2) compare the countries in terms of response to the COVID-19 economic crisis, and (3) compare their expected economic reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic in the near future. An advantage to our work is that we analyze macroeconomics on a monthly basis to capture the shocks and rapid changes caused by on and off rounds of lockdowns. We use the volume and social sentiments of the Twitter data to approximate the macroeconomic statistics. We apply four different machine learning algorithms to estimate the unemployment rate of South Africa and Nigeria on monthly basis. The results show that at the beginning of the pandemic the unemployment rate increased for all the three countries. However, Canada was able to control and reduce the unemployment rate during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, in line with the Phillips curve short-run, the inflation rate of Canada increased to a level that has never occurred in more than fifteen years. Nigeria and South Africa have not been able to control the unemployment rate and did not return to the pre-COVID-19 level. Yet, the inflation rate has increased in both countries. The inflation rate is still comparable to the pre-COVID-19 level in South Africa, but based on the Phillips curve short-run, it will increase further, if the unemployment rate decreases. Unfortunately, Nigeria is experiencing a horrible stagflation and a wild increase in both unemployment and inflation rates. This shows how vulnerable lower-middle-income countries could be to lockdowns and economic restrictions. In the near future, the main concern for all the countries is the high inflation rate. This work can potentially lead to more targeted and publicly acceptable policies based on social media content.

Socioeconomic inequalities in prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension: evidence from the PERSIAN cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Elevated blood pressure is associated with cardiovascular disease, stroke and chronic kidney disease. In this study, we examined the socioeconomic inequality and its related factors in prevalence, Awareness, Treatment and Control (ATC) of hypertension (HTN) in Iran. METHOD: The study used data from the recruitment phase of The Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN). A sample of 162,842 adults aged > = 35 years was analyzed. HTN was defined according to the Joint National Committee)JNC-7(. socioeconomic inequality was measured using concentration index (Cn) and curve. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 49.38(SD = ± 9.14) years and 44.74% of the them were men. The prevalence of HTN in the total population was 22.3%(95% CI: 20.6%; 24.1%), and 18.8%(95% CI: 16.8%; 20.9%) and 25.2%(95% CI: 24.2%; 27.7%) in men and women, respectively. The percentage of awareness treatment and control among individuals with HTN were 77.5%(95% CI: 73.3%; 81.8%), 82.2%(95% CI: 70.2%; 81.6%) and 75.9%(95% CI: 70.2%; 81.6%), respectively. The Cn for prevalence of HTN was -0.084. Two factors, age (58.46%) and wealth (32.40%), contributed most to the socioeconomic inequality in the prevalence of HTN. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of HTN was higher among low-SES individuals, who also showed higher levels of awareness. However, treatment and control of HTN were more concentrated among those who had higher levels of SES, indicating that people at a higher risk of adverse event related to HTN (the low SES individuals) are not benefiting from the advantage of treatment and control of HTN. Such a gap between diagnosis (prevalence) and control (treatment and control) of HTN needs to be addressed by public health policymakers.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

IMPORTANCE: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE: To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW: The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Ambient air particulate matter (PM10) satellite monitoring and respiratory health effects assessment.

PURPOSE: Air particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less (PM10) is one of the main causes of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). This study explored the relationship between PM10 by remote sensing and AECOPD in Chaharmahal-o-Bakhtiari province from 2014 to2018. METHOD: PM10 concentrations were predicted and validated based on aerosol optical depth (AOD) from 161 images processed by MODIS sensor and ground air quality monitoring station data. Demographic information and spirometric indices of 2038 patients with AECOPD were collected and analyzed from the hospital during the studied periods. SPSS software was used to analyze the relationships between these two categories of information. RESULTS: There was a significant negative relationship between PM10 and FVC, FVC%, FEV1, FEV1%, FEF25-75, FEV1/FVC, PEF, and FEF25FVC indices (p < 0.05). The results showed that over 2014-2018, the annual mean of PM10 concentrations varied from 35 to 52 µg/m3. The result of the regression model showed that the patient's age, body mass index (BMI), and PM10 concentrations were the most affecting variables on the two important spirometric indices i.e., FVC% and FEV1%. The PM10 concentrations and number of AECOPD patients had a similar pattern during the studied period. The women group, age group above 74 years, normal BMI, and non-smoking patients showed the most sensitivity to the PM10 concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide supplementary scientific information on PM10 concentration related to the incidence of AECOPD and as a variable affecting the most important spirometry indicators by providing local decision-makers information needed to set a priority of air pollution control measures as well as health services.

Decomposing socioeconomic inequality in dental caries in Iran: cross-sectional results from the PERSIAN cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The current study aimed to measure and decompose socioeconomic-related inequalities in DMFT (decayed, missing, and filled teeth) index among adults in Iran. METHODS: The study data were extracted from the adult component of Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN) from 17 centers in 14 different provinces of Iran. DMFT score was used as a measure of dental caries among adults in Iran. The concentration curve and relative concentration index (RC) was used to quantify and decompose socioeconomic-related inequalities in DMFT. RESULTS: A total of 128,813 adults aged 35 and older were included in the study. The mean (Standard Deviation [SD]) score of D, M, F and DMFT of the adults was 3.3 (4.6), 12.6 (10.5), 2.1 (3.4) and 18.0 (9.5), respectively. The findings suggested that DMFT was mainly concentrated among the socioeconomically disadvantaged adults (RC = - 0.064; 95% confidence interval [CI), - 0.066 to - 0.063). Socioeconomic status, being male, older age and being a widow or divorced were identified as the main factors contributing to the concentration of DMFT among the worse-off adults. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended to focus on the dental caries status of socioeconomically disadvantaged groups in order to reduce socioeconomic-related inequality in oral health among Iranian adults. Reducing socioeconomic-related inequalities in dental caries should be accompanied by appropriate health promotion policies that focus actions on the fundamental socioeconomic causes of dental disease.

Socioeconomic-related inequalities in oral hygiene behaviors: a cross-sectional analysis of the PERSIAN cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic-related inequality in oral hygiene behaviors in Iran is poorly understood. This study aims to measure and decompose socioeconomic-related inequalities in oral hygiene behaviors among middle-aged and elderly adults in Iran. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis was performed using data from the Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN), a large national cohort study. A total of 130,016 individuals aged 35 years and above from 17 cohort centers in Iran were included in the study. The normalized concentration index (Cn) was used to measure the magnitude of inequality in oral hygiene behaviors, i.e. brushing at least twice and flossing once daily, among middle-aged and elderly Iranian adults included in the cohort centers. Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of each determinant to the observed inequality in oral hygiene behaviors. RESULTS: Totally, 65.5% of middle-aged and elderly adults brushed their teeth twice a day or more, 7.6% flossed at least once a day and 3.48% had both habits. The estimated Cn of the two habits combined, i.e. tooth brushing and dental flossing, for all provinces taken part in the PERSIAN cohort study was 0.399 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.383 to 0.417), indicating that the prevalence of the two habits combined is more concentrated among individuals with higher socioeconomic status. Inequality in oral hygiene behaviors was pro-rich in all cohort centers. The decomposition results suggested socioeconomic status as the main factor contributing to the overall inequality, followed by the level of education, and the province of residence. CONCLUSION: A low prevalence of oral hygiene behaviors among middle-aged and elderly Iranian adults was observed. There was also a pro-rich inequality in oral hygiene behaviors among middle-aged and elderly adults in all cohort centers. These results suggest an urgent need for targeted policy interventions to increase the prevalence of preventive oral hygiene behaviors among the poor and less-educated middle-aged and elderly adults in Iran.

Socioeconomic gradient in physical activity: findings from the PERSIAN cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The level of socioeconomic-related inequality in physical activity in Iran is largely unknown. This study investigates socioeconomic-related inequality in poor-physical activity (PPA) among Iranian adults. METHODS: A total of 129,257 adult participants enrolled in the PERSIAN (Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN) Cohort were included in this study. Physical activity of adults was measured using metabolic equivalent rates (METs). Physical activity less than 41 METs/hour/day was considered PPA. The Concentration index (C) was used to quantify socioeconomic-related inequality in PPA. Moreover, the C was decomposed to identify the relative contribution of explanatory variables to inequality in PPA. RESULTS: There were significant regional variations in physical activity level among Iranian adults (29.8-76.5%). The positive value of C (0.098, 95% CI = 0.092 to 0.104) suggested that the higher concentration of PPA among higher socioeconomic status (SES) adults in Iran which was consistently observed in all cohort sites. CONCLUSIONS: The higher prevalence of PPA among Iranian adults, especially, women and older adults, warrant further public health attention. Since PPA is concentrated more among the high-SES population in Iran, strategies for the promotion of physical activity should focus more on economically well-off population.

The PERSIAN Cohort: Providing the Evidence Needed for Healthcare Reform.

In the past, communicable diseases caused the highest mortality in Iran. Improvements in socioeconomic status and living standards including access to safe drinking water, along with the inception of Health Houses in the 1980s, have changed disease patterns, decreasing the spread of and deaths from infectious and communicable diseases. The incidence and prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCD), however, have now increased in Iran, accounting for nearly 80% of deaths and disabilities. Without interventions, NCD are predicted to impose a substantial human and economic burden in the next 2 decades. However, Iran's health system is not equipped with the necessary policies to combat this growth and must refocus and reform. Therefore, in the year 2013, the Ministry of Health and Medical Education funded a well-designed nationwide cohort study-Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN)-in order to assess the burden of NCD and investigate the risk factors associated with them in the different ethnicities and geographical areas of Iran. The PERSIAN Cohort, which aims to include 200000 participants, has 4 components: Adult (main), Birth, Youth and Elderly, which are being carried out in 22 different regions of Iran. Having an enormous dataset along with a biobank of blood, urine, hair and nail samples, the PERSIAN Cohort will serve as an important infrastructure for future implementation research and will provide the evidence needed for new healthcare policies in order to better control, manage and prevent NCD.