Cost-effectiveness of incorporating Ebola prediction score tools and rapid diagnostic tests into a screening algorithm: A decision analytic model.

BACKGROUND: No distinctive clinical signs of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have prompted the development of rapid screening tools or called for a new approach to screening suspected Ebola cases. New screening approaches require evidence of clinical benefit and economic efficiency. As of now, no evidence or defined algorithm exists. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate, from a healthcare perspective, the efficiency of incorporating Ebola prediction scores and rapid diagnostic tests into the EVD screening algorithm during an outbreak. METHODS: We collected data on rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and prediction scores' accuracy measurements, e.g., sensitivity and specificity, and the cost of case management and RDT screening in EVD suspect cases. The overall cost of healthcare services (PPE, procedure time, and standard-of-care (SOC) costs) per suspected patient and diagnostic confirmation of EVD were calculated. We also collected the EVD prevalence among suspects from the literature. We created an analytical decision model to assess the efficiency of eight screening strategies: 1) Screening suspect cases with the WHO case definition for Ebola suspects, 2) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS at -3 points of cut-off, 3) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a joint test, 4) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a conditional test, 5) Screening suspect cases with the WHO case definition, then QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT, 6) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS at -3 points of cut-off and QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT, 7) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a conditional test and QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT, and 8) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a joint test and QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to identify an algorithm that minimizes the cost per patient correctly classified. We performed a one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of our findings. RESULTS: Our analysis found dual ECPS as a conditional test with the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT algorithm to be the most cost-effective screening algorithm for EVD, with an effectiveness of 0.86. The cost-effectiveness ratio was 106.7 USD per patient correctly classified. The following algorithms, the ECPS as a conditional test with an effectiveness of 0.80 and an efficiency of 111.5 USD per patient correctly classified and the ECPS as a joint test with the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT algorithm with an effectiveness of 0.81 and a cost-effectiveness ratio of 131.5 USD per patient correctly classified. These findings were sensitive to variations in the prevalence of EVD in suspected population and the sensitivity of the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study showed that prediction scores and RDT could improve Ebola screening. The use of the ECPS as a conditional test algorithm and the dual ECPS as a conditional test and then the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT algorithm are the best screening choices because they are more efficient and lower the number of confirmation tests and overall care costs during an EBOV epidemic.

The cost of public health interventions to respond to the 10th Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The 10th Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) drew substantial attention from the international community, which in turn invested more than US$1 billion in EVD control over two years (2018-2020). This is the first EVD outbreak to take place in a conflict area, which led to a shift in strategy from a pure public health response (PHR) to a multisectoral humanitarian response. A wide range of disease control and mitigation activities were implemented and were outlined in the five budgeted Strategic Response Plans used throughout the 26 months. This study used the budget/expenditure and output indicators for disease control and mitigation interventions compiled by the government of DRC and development and humanitarian partners to estimate unit costs of key Ebola control interventions. Of all the investment in EVD control, 68% was spent on PHR. The remaining 32% covered security, community support interventions for the PHR. The disbursement for the public health pillar was distributed as follows: (1) coordination (18.8%), (2), clinical management of EVD cases (18.4%), (3) surveillance and vaccination (15.9%), (4) infection prevention and control/WASH (13.8%) and (5) risk communication (13.7%). The unit costs of key EVD control interventions were as follows: US$66 182 for maintaining a rapid response team per month, US$4435 for contact tracing and surveillance per identified EVD case, US$1464 for EVD treatment per case, US$59.4 per EVD laboratory test, US$120.7 per vaccinated individual against EVD and US$175.0 for mental health and psychosocial support per beneficiary. The estimated unit costs of key EVD disease control interventions provide crucial information for future infectious disease control planning and budgeting, as well as prioritisation of disease control interventions.

Recommendations for the COVID-19 Response at the National Level Based on Lessons Learned from the Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The tenth outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in North Kivu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was declared 8 days after the end of the ninth EVD outbreak, in the Equateur Province on August 1, 2018. With a total of 3,461 confirmed and probable cases, the North Kivu outbreak was the second largest outbreak after that in West Africa in 2014-2016, and the largest observed in the DRC. This outbreak was difficult to control because of multiple challenges, including armed conflict, population displacement, movement of contacts, community mistrust, and high population density. It took more than 21 months to control the outbreak, with critical innovations and systems put into place. We describe systems that were put into place during the EVD response in the DRC that can be leveraged for the response to the current COVID-19 global pandemic.

The cost of insecurity: from flare-up to control of a major Ebola virus disease hotspot during the outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2019.

The ongoing Ebola outbreak in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo is facing unprecedented levels of insecurity and violence. We evaluate the likely impact in terms of added transmissibility and cases of major security incidents in the Butembo coordination hub. We also show that despite this additional burden, an adapted response strategy involving enlarged ring vaccination around clusters of cases and enhanced community engagement managed to bring this main hotspot under control.

Medical countermeasures during the 2018 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the North Kivu and Ituri Provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a rapid genomic assessment.

BACKGROUND: The real-time generation of information about pathogen genomes has become a vital goal for transmission analysis and characterisation in rapid outbreak responses. In response to the recently established genomic capacity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we explored the real-time generation of genomic information at the start of the 2018 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu Province. METHODS: We used targeted-enrichment sequencing to produce two coding-complete Ebola virus genomes 5 days after declaration of the EVD outbreak in North Kivu. Subsequent sequencing efforts yielded an additional 46 genomes. Genomic information was used to assess early transmission, medical countermeasures, and evolution of Ebola virus. FINDINGS: The genomic information demonstrated that the EVD outbreak in the North Kivu and Ituri Provinces was distinct from the 2018 EVD outbreak in Équateur Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Primer and probe mismatches to Ebola virus were identified in silico for all deployed diagnostic PCR assays, with the exception of the Cepheid GeneXpert GP assay. INTERPRETATION: The first two coding-complete genomes provided actionable information in real-time for the deployment of the rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP Ebola virus envelope glycoprotein vaccine, available therapeutics, and sequence-based diagnostic assays. Based on the mutations identified in the Ebola virus surface glycoprotein (GP12) observed in all 48 genomes, deployed monoclonal antibody therapeutics (mAb114 and ZMapp) should be efficacious against the circulating Ebola virus variant. Rapid Ebola virus genomic characterisation should be included in routine EVD outbreak response procedures to ascertain efficacy of medical countermeasures. FUNDING: Defense Biological Product Assurance Office.