Clinical and economic burden of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Middle East (ME) has a high prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), driven by obesity and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Studies in Saudi Arabia (KSA) and United Arab Emirates (UAE) predict an escalating impact of NAFLD/NASH, particularly advanced fibrosis due to NASH (AF-NASH), increasing cases of cirrhosis, liver cancer and death. The scale of this burden in other ME countries is unknown with no reports of NAFLD/NASH healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) or costs. We estimated the clinical and economic burden of NAFLD/NASH in KSA, UAE and Kuwait. METHODS: Markov models populated with country-specific obesity and T2DM prevalence data estimated numbers and progression of NAFLD/NASH patients from 2018 to 2030. Model inputs, assumptions and outputs were collected from literature, national statistics, and expert consensus. RESULTS: Over 13 years, the KSA model estimated cases increasing as follows: patients with fibrosis F0-3 doubled to 2.5 m, compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma trebled to 212,000; liver failure or transplant patients increased four-fold to 4,086 and liver-related death escalated from < 10,000 to > 200,000. Similar trends occurred in UAE and Kuwait. Discounted lifetime costs of NASH standard-care increased totaling USD40.41 bn, 1.59 bn and 6.36 bn in KSA, UAE (Emiratis only) and Kuwait, respectively. NASH-related costs in 2019 comprised, respectively, 5.83%, 5.80% and 7.66% of national healthcare spending. CONCLUSIONS: NASH, especially AF-NASH, should be considered a higher priority in ME Public Health policy. Our analyses should inform health policy makers to mitigate the enormity of this escalating regional burden.

The utility of esophagogastroduodenoscopy and Helicobacter pylori screening in the preoperative assessment of patients undergoing bariatric surgery: A cross-sectional, single-center study in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) and Helicobacter pylori screening are routine parts of the preoperative assessment of patients undergoing bariatric surgery at many centers around the world. The reason for this step is to identify abnormalities that may change the surgical approach. In this study, we aim to evaluate the extent to which endoscopic findings and H. pylori testing affect the plan of care in bariatric patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the investigational processes of 356 patients planned for bariatric surgery (2014-2016) at our center. Patients were categorized into two main groups (4 subgroups) from endoscopic findings. One group included patients with normal EGD and patients who had abnormal findings that did not change the surgical approach, whereas the other included patients who had findings that changed or canceled the surgical plan. A logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate how strongly can factors such as patient demographics, BMI, comorbidities, symptomatology, and H. pylori status predict the risk of having plan-changing endoscopic abnormalities. RESULTS: The ages ranged between 15 and 66 years with a mean ± SD of 37 ± 11 years, and 56% were females. The majority of patients (75%; 95% CI: 73 - 82%) had either no findings (41%) or had abnormalities that did not change the surgical approach (34%). Only 25% (95% CI: 21-29%) were found to have pathologies that altered the surgical approach, and 0.6% of them had findings that were considered contraindications for surgery. In spite the relatively high prevalence of H. pylori in our cohort (41%; 95% CI 36-46%), the proportion of patients who had plan-changing abnormalities did not differ markedly from other studies. Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and obstructive sleep apnea symptoms were the only significant predictors of EGD findings (P = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: GERD and sleep apnea symptoms can be strong predictors of EGD abnormalities. However, this evidence is still not enough to safely recommend changing the current practice. Therefore, until a sensitive clinical prediction score is derived and validated according to the symptoms, we suggest that EGD should continue as the standard of care in all patients undergoing bariatric surgery.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden - Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, 2017-2030.

Background/Aim: Due to epidemic levels of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) will be driving factors in liver disease burden in the coming years in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE). Materials and Methods: Models were used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression, primarily based on changes in adult prevalence rates of adult obesity and DM. The published estimates and expert interviews were used to build and validate the model projections. Results: In both countries, the prevalence of NAFLD increased through 2030 parallel to projected increases in the prevalence of obesity and DM. By 2030, there were an estimated 12,534,000 NAFLD cases in Saudi Arabia and 372,000 cases in UAE. Increases in NASH cases were relatively greater than the NAFLD cases due to aging of the population and disease progression. Likewise, prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis and advanced liver disease are projected to at least double by 2030, while annual incident liver deaths increase in both countries to 4800 deaths in Saudi Arabia and 140 deaths in UAE. Conclusions: Continued high rates of adult obesity and DM, in combination with aging populations, suggest that advanced liver disease and mortality attributable to NAFLD/NASH will increase across both countries. Reducing the growth of the NAFLD population, along with potential therapeutic options, will be needed to reduce liver disease burden.