Bundled Payments for Care Improvement and Quality of Care and Outcomes in Heart Failure.

Importance: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) program was launched in 2013 with a goal to improve care quality while lowering costs to Medicare. Objective: To compare changes in the quality and outcomes of care for patients hospitalized with heart failure according to hospital participation in the BPCI program. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used a difference-in-difference approach to evaluate the BPCI program in 18 BPCI hospitals vs 211 same-state non-BPCI hospitals for various process-of-care measures and outcomes using American Heart Association Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry and CMS Medicare claims data from November 1, 2008, to August 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from May 2022 to May 2023. Exposures: Hospital participation in CMS BPCI Model 2 Heart Failure, which paid hospitals in a fee-for-service process and then shared savings or required reimbursement depending on how the total cost of an episode of care compared with a target price. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary end points included 7 quality-of-care measures. Secondary end points included 9 outcome measures, including in-hospital mortality and hospital-level risk-adjusted 30-day and 90-day all-cause readmission rate and mortality rate. Results: During the study period, 8721 patients were hospitalized in the 23 BPCI hospitals and 94 530 patients were hospitalized in the 224 same-state non-BPCI hospitals. Less than a third of patients (30 723 patients, 29.8%) were 75 years or younger; 54 629 (52.9%) were female, and 48 622 (47.1%) were male. Hospital participation in BPCI Model 2 was not associated with significant differential changes in the odds of various process-of-care measures, except for a decreased odds of evidence-based ß-blocker at discharge (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.63; 95% CI, 0.41-0.98; P = .04). Participation in the BPCI was not associated with a significant differential change in the odds of receiving angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers or angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors at discharge, receiving an aldosterone antagonist at discharge, having a cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT)-defibrillator or CRT pacemaker placed or prescribed at discharge, having implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) counseling or an ICD placed or prescribed at discharge, heart failure education being provided among eligible patients, or having a follow-up visit within 7 days or less. Participation in the BPCI was associated with a significant decrease in odds of in-hospital mortality (aOR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.51-0.86; P = .002). Participation was not associated with a significant differential change in hospital-level risk-adjusted 30-day or 90-day all-cause readmission rate and 30-day or 90-day all-cause mortality rate. Conclusion and Relevance: In this study, hospital participation in the BPCI Model 2 Heart Failure program was not associated with improvement in process-of-care quality measures or 30-day or 90-day risk-adjusted all-cause mortality and readmission rates.

Medical Therapy Before, During and After Hospitalization in Medicare Beneficiaries With Heart Failure and Diabetes: Get With The Guidelines - Heart Failure Registry.

BACKGROUND: Patients hospitalized with heart failure (HF) and diabetes mellitus (DM) are at risk for worsening clinical status. Little is known about the frequency of therapeutic changes during hospitalization. We characterized the use of medical therapies before, during and after hospitalization in patients with HF and DM. METHODS: We identified Medicare beneficiaries in Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) hospitalized between July 2014 and September 2019 with Part D prescription coverage. We evaluated trends in the use of 7 classes of antihyperglycemic therapies (metformin, sulfonylureas, GLP-1RA, SGLT2-inhibitors, DPP-4 inhibitors, thiazolidinediones, and insulins) and 4 classes of HF therapies (evidence-based ß-blockers, ACEi or ARB, MRA, and ARNI). Medication fills were assessed at 6 and 3 months before hospitalization, at hospital discharge and at 3 months post-discharge. RESULTS: Among 35,165 Medicare beneficiaries, the median age was 77 years, 54% were women, and 76% were white; 11,660 (33%) had HFrEF (LVEF ≤ 40%), 3700 (11%) had HFmrEF (LVEF 41%-49%), and 19,805 (56%) had HFpEF (LVEF ≥ 50%). Overall, insulin was the most commonly prescribed antihyperglycemic after HF hospitalization (n = 12,919, 37%), followed by metformin (n = 7460, 21%) and sulfonylureas (n = 7030, 20%). GLP-1RA (n = 700, 2.0%) and SGLT2i (n = 287, 1.0%) use was low and did not improve over time. In patients with HFrEF, evidence-based beta-blocker, RASi, MRA, and ARNI fills during the 6 months preceding HF hospitalization were 63%, 62%, 19%, and 4%, respectively. Fills initially declined prior to hospitalization, but then rose from 3 months before hospitalization to discharge (beta-blocker: 56%-82%; RASi: 51%-57%, MRA: 15%-28%, ARNI: 3%-6%, triple therapy: 8%-20%; P < 0.01 for all). Prescription rates 3 months after hospitalization were similar to those at hospital discharge. CONCLUSIONS: In-hospital optimization of medical therapy in patients with HF and DM is common in participating hospitals of a large US quality improvement registry.

Sex differences in long-term outcomes following acute heart failure hospitalization: Findings from the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry.

AIMS: Sex differences in long-term outcomes following hospitalization for heart failure (HF) across ejection fraction (EF) subtypes are not well described. In this study, we evaluated the risk of mortality and rehospitalization among males and females across the spectrum of EF over 5 years of follow-up following an index HF hospitalization event. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients hospitalized with HF between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2014 from the American Heart Association's Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry with available 5-year follow-up using Medicare Part A claims data were included. The association between sex and risk of mortality and readmission over a 5-year follow-up period for each HF subtype (HF with reduced EF [HFrEF, EF ≤40%], HF with mildly reduced EF [HFmrEF, EF 41-49%], and HF with preserved EF [HFpEF, EF >50%]) was assessed using adjusted Cox models. The effect modification by the HF subtype for the association between sex and outcomes was assessed by including multiplicative interaction terms in the models. A total of 155 670 patients (median age: 81 years, 53.4% female) were included. Over 5-year follow-up, males and females had comparably poor survival post-discharge; however, females (vs. males) had greater years of survival lost to HF compared with the median age- and sex-matched US population (HFpEF: 17.0 vs. 14.6 years; HFrEF: 17.3 vs. 15.1 years; HFmrEF: 17.7 vs. 14.6 years for age group 65-69 years). In adjusted analysis, females (vs. males) had a lower risk of 5-year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-0.90, p < 0.0001), and the risk difference was most pronounced among patients with HFrEF (aHR 0.87, 95% CI 0.85-0.89; pinteraction [sex*HF subtype] = 0.04). Females (vs. males) had a higher adjusted risk of HF readmission over 5-year follow-up (aHR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.08, p < 0.0001), with the risk difference most pronounced among patients with HFpEF (aHR 1.11, 95% CI 1.07-1.14; pinteraction [sex*HF subtype] = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: While females (vs. males) had lower adjusted mortality, females experienced a significantly greater loss in survival time than the median age- and sex-matched US population and had a greater risk of rehospitalization over 5 years following HF hospitalization.

Patterns of Referral and Postdischarge Utilization of Cardiac Rehabilitation Among Patients Hospitalized With Heart Failure: An Analysis From the GWTG-HF Registry.

BACKGROUND: Coverage for cardiac rehabilitation (CR) for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction was expanded in 2014, but contemporary referral and participation rates remain unknown. METHODS: Patients hospitalized for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (≤35%) in the American Heart Association Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry from 2010 to 2020 were included, and CR referral status was described as yes, no, or not captured. Temporal trends in CR referral were assessed in the overall cohort. Patient and hospital-level predictors of CR referral were assessed using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models. Additionally, CR referral and proportional utilization of CR within 1-year of referral were evaluated among patients aged >65 years with available Medicare administrative claims data who were clinically stable for 6-weeks postdischarge. Finally, the association of CR referral with the risk of 1-year death and readmission was evaluated using multivariable-adjusted Cox models. RESULTS: Of 69,441 patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction who were eligible for CR (median age 67 years; 33% women; 30% Black), 17,076 (24.6%) were referred to CR, and referral rates increased from 8.1% in 2010 to 24.1% in 2020 (Ptrend<0.001). Of 8310 patients with Medicare who remained clinically stable 6-weeks after discharge, the CR referral rate was 25.8%, and utilization of CR among referred patients was 4.1% (mean sessions attended: 6.7). Patients not referred were more likely to be older, of Black race, and with a higher burden of comorbidities. In adjusted analysis, eligible patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction who were referred to CR (versus not referred) had a lower risk of 1-year death (hazard ratio, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.70-1.00]; P=0.049) without significant differences in 1-year readmission. CONCLUSIONS: CR referral rates have increased from 2010 to 2020. However, only 1 in 4 patients are referred to CR. Among eligible patients who received CR referral, participation was low, with <1 of 20 participating in CR.

Shorter Door-to-Needle Times Are Associated With Better Outcomes After Intravenous Thrombolytic Therapy and Endovascular Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Existing data and clinical trials could not determine whether faster intravenous thrombolytic therapy (IVT) translates into better long-term functional outcomes after acute ischemic stroke among those treated with endovascular thrombectomy (EVT). Patient-level national data can provide the required large population to study the associations between earlier IVT, versus later, with longitudinal functional outcomes and mortality in patients receiving IVT+EVT combined treatment. METHODS: This cohort study included older US patients (age ≥65 years) who received IVT within 4.5 hours or EVT within 7 hours after acute ischemic stroke using the linked 2015 to 2018 Get With The Guidelines-Stroke and Medicare database (38 913 treated with IVT only and 3946 with IVT+EVT). Primary outcome was home time, a patient-prioritized functional outcome. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality in 1 year. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the associations between door-to-needle (DTN) times and outcomes. RESULTS: Among patients treated with IVT+EVT, after adjusting for patient and hospital factors, including onset-to-EVT times, each 15-minute increase in DTN times for IVT was associated with significantly higher odds of zero home time in a year (never discharged to home) (adjusted odds ratio, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.06-1.19]), less home time among those discharged to home (adjusted odds ratio, 0.93 per 1% of 365 days [95% CI, 0.89-0.98]), and higher all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.02-1.11]). These associations were also statistically significant among patients treated with IVT but at a modest degree (adjusted odds ratio, 1.04 for zero home time, 0.96 per 1% home time for those discharged to home, and adjusted hazard ratio 1.03 for mortality). In the secondary analysis where the IVT+EVT group was compared with 3704 patients treated with EVT only, shorter DTN times (≤60, 45, and 30 minutes) achieved incrementally more home time in a year, and more modified Rankin Scale 0 to 2 at discharge (22.3%, 23.4%, and 25.0%, respectively) versus EVT only (16.4%, P<0.001 for each). The benefit dissipated with DTN>60 minutes. CONCLUSIONS: Among older patients with stroke treated with either IVT only or IVT+EVT, shorter DTN times are associated with better long-term functional outcomes and lower mortality. These findings support further efforts to accelerate thrombolytic administration in all eligible patients, including EVT candidates.

Clinical Profile, Health Care Costs, and Outcomes of Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure With Severely Reduced Ejection Fraction.

Background Many patients with heart failure (HF) have severely reduced ejection fraction but do not meet threshold for consideration of advanced therapies (ie, stage D HF). The clinical profile and health care costs associated with these patients in US practice is not well described. Methods and Results We examined patients hospitalized for worsening chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction ≤40% from 2014 to 2019 in the GWTG-HF (Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure) registry, who did not receive advanced HF therapies or have end-stage kidney disease. Patients with severely reduced EF defined as EF ≤30% were compared with those with EF 31% to 40% in terms of clinical profile and guideline-directed medical therapy. Among Medicare beneficiaries, postdischarge outcomes and health care expenditure were compared. Among 113 348 patients with EF ≤40%, 69% (78 589) had an EF ≤30%. Patients with severely reduced EF ≤30% tended to be younger and were more likely to be Black. Patients with EF ≤30% also tended to have fewer comorbidities and were more likely to be prescribed guideline-directed medical therapy ("triple therapy" 28.3% versus 18.2%, P<0.001). At 12-months postdischarge, patients with EF ≤30% had significantly higher risk of death (HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.08-1.18]) and HF hospitalization (HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.09-1.19]), with similar risk of all-cause hospitalizations. Health care expenditures were numerically higher for patients with EF ≤30% (median US$22 648 versus $21 392, P=0.11). Conclusions Among patients hospitalized for worsening chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction in US clinical practice, most patients have severely reduced EF ≤30%. Despite younger age and modestly higher use of guideline-directed medical therapy at discharge, patients with severely reduced EF face heightened postdischarge risk of death and HF hospitalization.

Applicability of Vericiguat to Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure in the United States.

BACKGROUND: In January 2021, vericiguat, a soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to reduce the risk of cardiovascular death and heart failure (HF) hospitalization among patients with a recent worsening HF event based on the VICTORIA (VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction) trial. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to leverage a contemporary U.S. registry of patients hospitalized for heart failure (HF) to characterize patients who may be candidates for vericiguat based on FDA label and the VICTORIA trial eligibility criteria. METHODS: The authors studied patients hospitalized for HF with ejection fraction (EF) <45% across 525 sites in the GWTG-HF (Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure) registry between January 2014 and December 2020. Approximate FDA label criteria (excluding estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <15 mL/min/1.73 m2, dialysis, or patients with heart transplantation or durable mechanical circulatory support) and eligibility criteria for the VICTORIA trial were applied to the GWTG-HF cohort. RESULTS: Among 241,057 patients with EF <45% in the GWTG-HF registry, 221,730 (92%) could be candidates for vericiguat under the FDA label and 92,249 (38%) would have been eligible for the VICTORIA trial. The most frequent reasons for ineligibility for the FDA label were eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m2 (5.7%) and dialysis (1.6%). Although there were greater proportions of women and Black patients in the GWTG-HF registry, most clinical characteristics were qualitatively similar with patients enrolled in the VICTORIA trial. Among Medicare beneficiaries in the GWTG-HF registry eligible for vericiguat by either FDA label or VICTORIA trial criteria, 12-month postdischarge rates of mortality (36%-37%), HF hospitalization (33%-35%), all-cause hospitalization (64%-66%), and mean health care expenditure (U.S. $25,106-$25,428) were high. CONCLUSIONS: Data from a large, contemporary U.S. registry of patients actively hospitalized for HF with EF <45% suggest that approximately 4 in 10 patients meet the criteria of the VICTORIA trial and that more than 9 in 10 patients are potential candidates for vericiguat based on the FDA label. Contemporary Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for HF with EF <45% and eligible for vericiguat face high rates of postdischarge mortality and readmission and accrue substantial health care costs.

Assessing Heuristic Bias During Care for Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure: Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Heuristic biases are increasingly recognized, and potentially modifiable, contributors to patient care and outcomes. Left digit bias is a cognitive bias where continuous variables are categorized by their left-most digit. The impact of this heuristic bias applied to patient age on quality of care in heart failure has not been explored. METHODS: We examined participants admitted from 2005 to 2021 in the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry. To create 2 naturally randomized groups, isolating the effect of left digit bias, we dichotomized patients into those discharged within 60 days prior to their 80th birthday (N=4238) and those discharged within 60 days after their 80th birthday (N=4329). We performed multivariable logistic regression to assess the association between discharge date relative to 80th birthday and several in-hospital quality metrics and in-hospital outcomes. Among Medicare participants (N=2759), we performed adjusted Cox regression to analyze the relationship between discharge date and risk of 1-year mortality or readmission. RESULTS: Among 8567 patients, 50.4% were female, 73% were non-Hispanic White, and 42.9% had an ejection fraction ≤40%. Discharge date relative to 80th birthday was not associated with numerous in-hospital quality metrics or in-hospital outcomes on unadjusted or adjusted logistic regression. Among Medicare beneficiaries, there was no association between discharge date and risk of mortality or readmission at 1-year postdischarge (hazard ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.95-1.12]; P=0.52). CONCLUSIONS: In a large registry of patients hospitalized for heart failure, we did not detect a left digit bias' with respect to age at discharge, which resulted in differential quality of care or outcomes.

Intersection of atrial fibrillation and heart failure with mildly reduced and preserved ejection fraction in >400 000 participants in the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure Registry.

AIMS: Although atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently coexists with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), few data are available evaluating AF-specific care patterns and post-discharge outcomes in patients hospitalized for HFpEF. We evaluated AF-specific medical therapies and post-discharge outcomes among patients hospitalized for heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) or HFpEF by AF history. METHODS AND RESULTS: Trends in AF prevalence were evaluated among patients hospitalized for HFmrEF or HFpEF in the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure Registry from 2014 to 2020. Among those with linked Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services post-discharge data, we assessed associations of AF with 12-month outcomes and determined trends in post-discharge prescriptions. Among 429 464 patients (median age 76 years [interquartile range 65-85], 57% women), 216 486 (50%) had a history of AF. Over time, the proportion of patients with AF increased slightly. Among the 79 895 patients with post-discharge data, AF was independently associated with higher risk of mortality and all-cause readmissions at 12 months, with stronger associations in HFpEF than in HFmrEF (mortality hazard ratio [HR] 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.16 vs. HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.97-1.10; pinteraction  = 0.009). Anti-arrhythmic drug use after heart failure hospitalization was low (18%) and increased modestly over time. Amiodarone accounted for 71% of total anti-arrhythmic drug prescriptions. Overall use of anticoagulants after heart failure hospitalization has significantly increased from 52% in 2014 to 61% in 2019, but remained modest. CONCLUSION: Prevalence of AF is rising among patients hospitalized with HFpEF. Those with comorbid AF face elevated post-discharge risks of death and rehospitalization. Current use of pharmacological rhythm control is low.

Associations of Medicaid Expansion With Access to Care, Severity, and Outcomes for Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Multiple states have not expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, resulting in higher uninsured rates in states with high stroke burdens. This study aimed to evaluate the association of Medicaid expansion with changes in health insurance coverage, severity of presentation, access to care, and outcomes among patients with acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: A retrospective, difference-in-differences analysis of Get With The Guidelines-Stroke registry data. The study population comprised first-time ischemic stroke admissions from 2012 to 2018 for patients aged 19 to 64 in 45 states (27 that expanded Medicaid and 18 that did not). A probable low-income cohort was defined based on having Medicaid, no insurance/self-pay, or undocumented insurance. Outcomes analyzed were indicators of health insurance status, stroke severity, use of emergency services, time to acute care, in-hospital mortality, receipt of rehabilitation, discharge disposition, and level of disability. RESULTS: In the starting population (N=342 765), Medicaid-covered stroke admissions rose from 12.2% to 18.1% in expansion states and from 10.0% to only 10.6% in nonexpansion states, while uninsured admissions declined from 15.0% to 6.7% in expansion states and from 24.0% to 19.2% in nonexpansion states. In the low-income cohort (N=95 086; 28% of starting population), Medicaid expansion was associated with increased odds of discharge to a skilled nursing facility (adjusted odds ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.12-1.59]) and transfer to any rehabilitation facility among those eligible (adjusted odds ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.08-1.41]) and lower odds of discharge home (adjusted odds ratio, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.80-0.98]). Expansion was not associated with any other outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid expansion is associated with fewer uninsured hospitalizations for acute ischemic stroke and increased rehabilitation at skilled nursing facilities. More targeted interventions may be needed to improve other stroke outcomes in the low-income US population. Future research should evaluate the impact of health care reform on primary stroke prevention.

Assessment of North American Clinical Research Site Performance During the Start-up of Large Cardiovascular Clinical Trials.

Importance: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are critical in advancing patient care, yet conducting such large-scale trials requires tremendous resources and coordination. Clinical site start-up performance metrics can provide insight into opportunities for improved trial efficiency but have not been well described. Objective: To measure the start-up time needed to reach prespecified milestones across sites in large cardiovascular RCTs in North America and to evaluate how these metrics vary by time and type of regulatory review process. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study evaluated cardiovascular RCTs conducted from July 13, 2004, to February 1, 2017. The RCTs were coordinated by a single academic research organization, the Duke Clinical Research Institute. Nine consecutive trials with completed enrollment and publication of results in their target journal were studied. Data were analyzed from December 4, 2019, to January 11, 2021. Exposures: Year of trial enrollment initiation (2004-2007 vs 2008-2012) and use of a central vs local institutional review board (IRB). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the median start-up time (from study protocol delivery to first participant enrollment) as compared by trial year and type of IRB used. The median start-up time for the top 10% of sites was also reported. Secondary outcomes included time to site regulatory approval, time to contract execution, and time to site activation. Results: For the 9 RCTs included, the median site start-up time shortened only slightly over time from 267 days (interquartile range [IQR], 185-358 days) for 2004-2007 trials to 237 days (IQR, 162-343 days) for 2008-2012 trials (overall median, 255 days [IQR, 177-350 days]; P < .001). For the top 10% of sites, median start-up time was 107 days (IQR, 95-121 days) for 2004-2007 trials vs 104 days (IQR, 84-118 days) for 2008-2012 trials (overall median, 106 days [IQR, 90-120 days]; P = .04). The median start-up time was shorter among sites using a central IRB (199 days [IQR, 140-292 days]) than those using a local IRB (287 days [IQR, 205-390 days]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study of North American research sites in large cardiovascular RCTs found a duration of nearly 9 months from the time of study protocol delivery to the first participant enrollment; this metric was only slightly shortened during the study period but was reduced to less than 4 months for top-performing sites. These findings suggest that the use of central IRBs has the potential to improve RCT efficiency.

Predicting Recurrent Care Seeking of Physical Therapy for Musculoskeletal Pain Conditions.

OBJECTIVE: Musculoskeletal pain conditions are a leading cause of pain and disability internationally and a common reason to seek health care. Accurate prediction of recurrence of health care seeking due to musculoskeletal conditions could allow for better tailoring of treatment. The aim of this project was to characterize patterns of recurrent physical therapy seeking for musculoskeletal pain conditions and to develop a preliminary prediction model to identify those at increased risk of recurrent care seeking. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. SETTING: Ambulatory care. SUBJECTS: Patients (n = 578,461) seeking outpatient physical therapy (United States). METHODS: Potential predictor variables were extracted from the electronic medical record, and patients were placed into three different recurrent care categories. Logistic regression models were used to identify individual predictors of recurrent care seeking, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to develop multivariate prediction models. RESULTS: The accuracy of models for different definitions of recurrent care ranged from 0.59 to 0.64 (c-statistic), and individual predictors were identified from multivariate models. Predictors of increased risk of recurrent care included receiving workers' compensation and Medicare insurance, having comorbid arthritis, being postoperative at the time of the first episode, age range of 44-64 years, and reporting night sweats or night pain. Predictors of decreased risk of recurrent care included lumbar pain, chronic injury, neck pain, pregnancy, age range of 25-44 years, and smoking. CONCLUSION: This analysis identified a preliminary predictive model for recurrence of care seeking of physical therapy, but model accuracy needs to improve to better guide clinical decision-making.

Clinical and Economic Implications of Inconclusive Noninvasive Test Results in Stable Patients With Suspected Coronary Artery Disease: Insights From the PROMISE Trial.

BACKGROUND: Inconclusive noninvasive tests complicate the care of patients with suspected coronary artery disease, but their prevalence and impact on management, outcomes, and costs are not well described. METHODS: PROMISE (Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain) patients were randomized to stress testing (n=4533) or computed tomographic angiography (CTA; n=4677). We assessed relationships between inconclusive results, subsequent testing, a composite outcome (death, myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina), and healthcare expenditures. RESULTS: Overall, 8.0% of tests were inconclusive (9.7% stress, 6.4% CTA). Compared with negative tests, inconclusive tests were more often referred to a second noninvasive test (stress: 14.6% versus 8.5%, odds ratio [OR], 1.91; CTA: 36.5% versus 8.4%, OR, 5.95; P<0.001) and catheterization (stress: 5.5% versus 2.4%, OR, 2.36; CTA: 23.4% versus 4.1%, OR, 6.49; P<0.001), and composite outcomes were higher for both inconclusive tests (stress: 3.7% versus 2.0%, hazard ratio, 1.81, P=0.034; CTA: 5.0% versus 2.2%, hazard ratio, 1.85; P=0.044) and positive tests (stress: 8.3% versus 2.0%, hazard ratio, 3.50; CTA: 9.2% versus 2.2%, hazard ratio, 3.66; P<0.001). Twenty-four-month costs were higher for inconclusive tests than negative tests by $2905 (stress) and $4030 (CTA). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with stable chest pain undergoing a noninvasive test, inconclusive results occurred in 6% of CTA and 10% of stress tests. Compared with those with conclusive negative tests, individuals with inconclusive results more often underwent subsequent testing, had increased medical costs, and experienced worse outcomes. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01174550.

Temporal association of implementation of the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) with changes in dental-related emergency department visits in Maricopa County from 2006 to 2012.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in emergency department (ED) dental-related visits in Maricopa County before and after the elimination of dental benefits for adult Medicaid-insured patients as of October 2010. METHODS: Hospital visits extracted from a hospital discharge dataset were used to calculate a yearly rate ratio of dental-related versus non-dental-related ED visits (as a comparison group) for adults, children, and payer types. Changes in ED visits over time were evaluated from 2006 to 2012. RESULTS: Overall, 1.3 percent of all ED visits (8,030,767) were for dental-related purposes. Medicaid-insured patients accounted for 41.9 percent and 44.3 percent of all dental-related ED visits in 2006 and 2012, respectively. The rate ratio for the percentage of dental-related versus non-dental-related ED visits in each age category and payer type showed little fluctuation over time indicating no evidence of change in the dental-related ED visits as a proportion of the overall number of visits due to the cuts in the dental benefits for adult Medicaid-insured patients. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that cuts in dental benefits for adult Medicaid-insured patients resulted in increased dental-related ED visits in Maricopa County during the study period. Rather, we found evidence of a shift in payer type after the 2010 policy change where dental-related ED visits by self-paid patients increased as dental-related ED visits by Medicaid-insured patients decreased. Such payer shifts will result in high uncompensated care burdens for providers and, ultimately, governmental payers.

Ambient air pollution and emergency department visits for asthma: a multi-city assessment of effect modification by age.

Previous studies have found strong associations between asthma morbidity and major ambient air pollutants. Relatively little research has been conducted to assess whether age is a factor conferring susceptibility to air pollution-related asthma morbidity. We investigated the short-term relationships between asthma emergency department (ED) visits and ambient ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Atlanta (1993-2009), Dallas (2006-2009), and St. Louis (2001-2007). City-specific daily time-series analyses were conducted to estimate associations by age group (0-4, 5-18, 19-39, 40-64, and 65+ years). Sub-analyses were performed stratified by race and sex. City-specific rate ratios (RRs) were combined by inverse-variance weighting to provide an overall association for each strata. The overall RRs differed across age groups, with associations for all pollutants consistently strongest for children aged 5-18 years. The patterns of association across age groups remained generally consistent when models were stratified by sex and race, although the strong observed associations among 5-18 year olds appeared to be partially driven by non-white and male patients. Our findings suggest that age is a susceptibility factor for asthma exacerbations in response to air pollution, with school-age children having the highest susceptibility.