HIV risk behaviour, viraemia, and transmission across HIV cascade stages including low-level viremia: Analysis of 14 cross-sectional population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.

As antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage for people living with HIV (PLHIV) increases, HIV programmes require up-to-date information about evolving HIV risk behaviour and transmission risk, including those with low-level viremia (LLV; >50 to ≤1000 copies/mL), to guide prevention priorities. We aimed to assess differences in sexual risk behaviours, distribution of viral load (VL) and proportion of transmission across PLHIV subgroups. We analysed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries during 2015-2019. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of self-reported HIV high-risk behaviour (multiple partners and condomless sex) across cascade stages via generalised estimation equations. We modelled the proportions of transmission from each subgroup using relative self-reported sexual risk, a Hill function for transmission rate by VL, and proportions within cascade stages from surveys and UNAIDS country estimates for 2010-2020. Compared to PLHIV with undetectable VL (≤50 copies/mL), undiagnosed PLHIV (aPR women: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.08-1.52]; men: 1.61 [1.33-1.95]) and men diagnosed but untreated (2.06 [1.52-2.78]) were more likely to self-report high-risk sex. High-risk behaviour was not significantly associated with LLV. Mean VL was similar among undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and on ART but non-suppressed sub-groups. Across surveys, undiagnosed and diagnosed but untreated contributed most to transmission (40-91% and 1-41%, respectively), with less than 1% from those with LLV. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of transmission from individuals on ART but non-suppressed increased. In settings with high ART coverage, effective HIV testing, ART linkage, and retention remain priorities to reduce HIV transmission. Persons with LLV are an increasing share of PLHIV but their contribution to HIV transmission was small. Improving suppression among PLHIV on ART with VL ≥1000 copies/mL will become increasingly important.

Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy.

OBJECTIVE: Although geographically specific data can help target HIV prevention and treatment strategies, Nigeria relies on national- and state-level estimates for policymaking and intervention planning. We calculated sub-state estimates along the HIV continuum of care in Nigeria. DESIGN: Using data from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) (July-December 2018), we conducted a geospatial analysis estimating three key programmatic indicators: prevalence of HIV infection among adults (aged 15-64 years); antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage among adults living with HIV; and viral load suppression (VLS) rate among adults living with HIV. METHODS: We used an ensemble modeling method called stacked generalization to analyze available covariates and a geostatistical model to incorporate the output from stacking as well as spatial autocorrelation in the modeled outcomes. Separate models were fitted for each indicator. Finally, we produced raster estimates of each indicator on an approximately 5×5-km grid and estimates at the sub-state/local government area (LGA) and state level. RESULTS: Estimates for all three indicators varied both within and between states. While state-level HIV prevalence ranged from 0.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.3%-0.5%]) to 4.3% (95% UI: 3.7%-4.9%), LGA prevalence ranged from 0.2% (95% UI: 0.1%-0.5%) to 8.5% (95% UI: 5.8%-12.2%). Although the range in ART coverage did not substantially differ at state level (25.6%-76.9%) and LGA level (21.9%-81.9%), the mean absolute difference in ART coverage between LGAs within states was 16.7 percentage points (range, 3.5-38.5 percentage points). States with large differences in ART coverage between LGAs also showed large differences in VLS-regardless of level of effective treatment coverage-indicating that state-level geographic targeting may be insufficient to address coverage gaps. CONCLUSION: Geospatial analysis across the HIV continuum of care can effectively highlight sub-state variation and identify areas that require further attention in order to achieve epidemic control. By generating local estimates, governments, donors, and other implementing partners will be better positioned to conduct targeted interventions and prioritize resource distribution.

Population health outcomes in Nigeria compared with other west African countries, 1998-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Population-level health and mortality data are crucial for evidence-informed policy but scarce in Nigeria. To fill this gap, we undertook a comprehensive assessment of the burden of disease in Nigeria and compared outcomes to other west African countries. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, using data and results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we analysed patterns of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and health system coverage for Nigeria and 15 other west African countries by gender in 1998 and 2019. Estimates of all-age and age-standardised disability-adjusted life-years for 369 diseases and injuries and 87 risk factors are presented for Nigeria. Health expenditure per person and gross domestic product were extracted from the World Bank repository. FINDINGS: Between 1998 and 2019, life expectancy and HALE increased in Nigeria by 18% to 64·3 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 62·2-66·6), mortality reduced for all age groups for both male and female individuals, and health expenditure per person increased from the 11th to third highest in west Africa by 2018 (US$18·6 in 2001 to $83·75 in 2018). Nonetheless, relative outcomes remained poor; Nigeria ranked sixth in west Africa for age-standardised mortality, seventh for HALE, tenth for YLLs, 12th for health system coverage, and 14th for YLDs in 2019. Malaria (5176·3 YLLs per 100 000 people, 95% UI 2464·0-9591·1) and neonatal disorders (4818·8 YLLs per 100 000, 3865·9-6064·2) were the leading causes of YLLs in Nigeria in 2019. Nigeria had the fourth-highest under-five mortality rate for male individuals (2491·8 deaths per 100 000, 95% UI 1986·1-3140·1) and female individuals (2117·7 deaths per 100 000, 1756·7-2569·1), but among the lowest mortality for men older than 55 years. There was evidence of a growing non-communicable disease burden facing older Nigerians. INTERPRETATION: Health outcomes remain poor in Nigeria despite higher expenditure since 2001. Better outcomes in countries with equivalent or lower health expenditure suggest health system strengthening and targeted intervention to address unsafe water sources, poor sanitation, malnutrition, and exposure to air pollution could substantially improve population health. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health Insurance Status of Pregnant Women and the Likelihood of Receipt of Antenatal Screening for HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: We investigated if initiating preventive care against HIV vertical transmission by antenatal HIV screening is independent of the patients' source of financial reimbursement for the care received in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). METHODS: Using information from the WHO's Global Health Expenditure Database and the Demographic Health Surveys Database for 27 sub-Saharan countries, we used Spearman's correlation and adjusted survey logistic regression to determine the potential relationship between enrollment in health insurance and the likelihood that expectant mothers would be offered antenatal HIV screening. RESULTS: We found that expectant mothers covered by health insurance were more than twice as likely to be offered antenatal screening for HIV compared to the uninsured. The likelihood differed by the type of insurance plan the expectant mother carried. DISCUSSION: Health insurance is more of a financial tool that this study finds to be necessary to boost the uptake of preventive and therapeutic HIV care in SSA. CONCLUSION: The ensuing disparity in receiving proper care could hinder the goals of 90-90-90 and the forthcoming 95-95-95 plan in SSA.

Postal recruitment and consent obtainment from index cases of narcolepsy.

BACKGROUND: Access to research volunteers may be hampered by low numbers of cases and few eligible participants for rare diseases in clinical settings. METHODS: We recruited volunteers and obtained informed consent by mail from narcolepsy cases in a case-control study, and here in we report feasibility, response rate, timeliness and cost. We invited index cases into the study by mail through their care-giving physicians then mailed study information and consent forms to cases that indicated interest in the study. RESULTS: Of the 33 index cases invited, 15 (45.0%) expressed interest in the study, and of those, 14 (93.3%) returned their signed informed consents by mail. The median number of days from invitation to consent return was 39, interquartile range = 45, and the cost per consent obtained from the recruited subjects was $ 23.61. CONCLUSION: In this setting, postal recruitment for biomedical research on rare conditions is feasible and time and cost effective.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care digital chest-x-ray in HIV patients with pulmonary mycobacterial infections in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Chest-x-ray is routinely used in the diagnosis of smear negative tuberculosis (TB). This study assesses the incremental cost per true positive test of a point-of-care digital chest-x-ray, in the diagnosis of pulmonary mycobacterial infections among HIV patients with presumed tuberculosis undetected by smear microscopy. METHODS: Consecutive patients with clinical suspicion of pulmonary tuberculosis were serially tested for Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), their sputum examined for Acid Fast Bacilli then cultured in broth and solid media. Cultures characterized as tuberculous (M.tb) and non-tuberculous (NTM) mycobacteria by Hain assays were used as gold standards. A chest-x-ray was classified as: (1) consistent for TB, (2) not consistent for TB and (3) no pathology. RESULTS: Of the 1391 suspected cases enrolled, complete data were available for 952 (68%): 753/952 (79%) had negative smear tests while 150/753 (20%) had cultures positive for TB. Of those, 82/150 (55%) had chest-x-ray signs consistent with TB and 29/82 (35%) were positive for HIV. Within the co-infected, 9/29 (31%) had NTM infections. Among all suspects, the cost per positive case detected using smear microscopy test was $52.84; the overall incremental cost per positive case using chest-x-ray in smear negatives was $23.42, and in smear negative, HIV positive patients the cost was $15.77. CONCLUSION: Point-of-care chest-x-ray is a cost-effective diagnostic tool for smear negative HIV positive patients with pulmonary mycobacterial infection.

HIV counseling and testing and access-to-care needs of populations most-at-risk for HIV in Nigeria.

Mobile HIV counseling and testing (mHCT) is an effective tool to access hard-to-reach most-at-risk populations (MARPs), but identifying which populations are not accessing services is often a challenge. We compared correlates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and awareness of HIV care services among populations tested through mHCT and at testing facilities in Nigeria. Participants in a cross-sectional study completed a questionnaire and HCT between May 2005 and March 2010. Of 27,586 total participants, 26.7% had been previously tested for HIV; among mHCT clients, 14.7% had previously been tested. HIV prevalence ranged from 6.6% among those tested through a facility to 50.4% among brothel-based sex workers tested by mHCT. Among mHCT participants aged 18-24, women were nine times more likely to be infected than men. Women aged 18-24 were also less likely than their male counterparts to know that there were medicines available to treat HIV (63.2 vs. 68.1%; p=0.03). After controlling for gender, age, and other risk factors, those with current genital ulcer disease were more likely to be HIV-infected (OR(mHCT)=1.65, 1.31-2.09; OR(facility)=1.71, 1.37-2.14), while those previously tested were less likely to be HIV-infected (OR(mHCT)=0.75, 0.64-0.88; OR(facility)=0.27, 0.24-0.31). There is an urgent need to promote strategies to identify those who are HIV-infected within MARPs, particularly young women, and to educate and inform them about availability of HIV testing and care services. mHCT, ideally coupled with sexually transmitted infection management, may help to ensure that MARPs access HIV prevention support, and if infected, access care, and treatment.