Border malaria: defining the problem to address the challenge of malaria elimination.

Border malaria is frequently cited as an obstacle to malaria elimination and sometimes used as a justification for the failure of elimination. Numerous border or cross-border meetings and elimination initiatives have been convened to address this bottleneck to elimination. In this Perspective, border malaria is defined as malaria transmission, or the potential for transmission, across or along shared land borders between countries where at least one of them has ongoing malaria transmission. Border malaria is distinct from malaria importation, which can occur anywhere and in any country. The authors' analysis shows that the remaining transmission foci of malaria-eliminating countries tend to occur in the vicinity of international land borders that they share with neighbouring endemic countries. The reasons why international land borders often represent the last mile in malaria elimination are complex. The authors argue that the often higher intrinsic transmission potential, the neglect of investment and development, the constant risk of malaria importation due to cross-border movement, the challenges of implementing interventions in complex environments and uncoordinated action in a cross-border shared transmission focus all contribute to the difficulties of malaria elimination in border areas. Border malaria reflects the limitations of the current tools and interventions for malaria elimination and implies the need for social cohesion, basic health services, community economic conditions, and policy dialogue and coordination to achieve the expected impact of malaria interventions. Given the uniqueness of each border and the complex and multifaceted nature of border malaria, a situation analysis to define and characterize the determinants of transmission is essential to inform a problem-solving mindset and develop appropriate strategies to eliminate malaria in these areas.

Rotavirus disease burden pre-vaccine introduction in young children in Rural Southern Mozambique, an area of high HIV prevalence.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccines have been adopted in African countries since 2009, including Mozambique (2015). Disease burden data are needed to evaluate the impact of rotavirus vaccine. We report the burden of rotavirus-associated diarrhea in Mozambique from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) before vaccine introduction. METHODS: A case-control study (GEMS), was conducted in Manhiça district, recruiting children aged 0-59 months with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and less-severe-diarrhea (LSD) between December 2007 and November 2012; including 1-3 matched (age, sex and neighborhood) healthy community controls. Clinical and epidemiological data and stool samples (for laboratory investigation) were collected. Association of rotavirus with MSD or LSD was determined by conditional logistic regression and adjusted attributable fractions (AF) calculated, and risk factors for rotavirus diarrhea assessed. RESULTS: Overall 915 cases and 1,977 controls for MSD, and 431 cases and 430 controls for LSD were enrolled. Rotavirus positivity was 44% (217/495) for cases and 15% (160/1046) of controls, with AF = 34.9% (95% CI: 32.85-37.06) and adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) of 6.4 p< 0.0001 in infants with MSD compared to 30% (46/155) in cases and 14% (22/154) in controls yielding AF = 18.7%, (95% CI: 12.02-25.39) and aOR = 2.8, p = 0.0011 in infants with LSD. The proportion of children with rotavirus was 32% (21/66) among HIV-positive children and 23% (128/566) among HIV-negative ones for MSD. Presence of animals in the compound (OR = 1.9; p = 0.0151) and giving stored water to the child (OR = 2.0, p = 0.0483) were risk factors for MSD; while animals in the compound (OR = 2.37, p = 0.007); not having routine access to water on a daily basis (OR = 1.53, p = 0.015) and washing hands before cooking (OR = 1.76, p = 0.0197) were risk factors for LSD. CONCLUSION: The implementation of vaccination against rotavirus may likely result in a significant reduction of rotavirus-associated diarrhea, suggesting the need for monitoring of vaccine impact.

Seven decades towards malaria elimination in Yunnan, China.

BACKGROUND: Yunnan Province was considered the most difficult place in China for malaria elimination because of its complex malaria epidemiology, heterogeneous ecological features, relatively modest economic development, and long, porous border with three malaria endemic countries: Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, and Viet Nam. METHODS: Academic publications and grey literature relevant to malaria elimination in Yunnan covering the period from 1950 until 2020 inclusive were considered. The following academic indexes were searched: China Science Periodical Database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure Database, and MEDLINE. Grey literature sources were mainly available from the National Institute of Parasitic Diseases (NIPD), the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, and the Yunnan Institute of Parasitic Diseases (YIPD). RESULTS: A malaria elimination campaign in the 1950-1960s, based mainly on mass administration of antimalarial drugs and large-scale vector control, reduced morbidity and mortality from malaria and interrupted transmission in some areas, although elimination was not achieved. Similar strategies were used to contain outbreaks and a resurgence of disease during the 1970s, when malaria services were discontinued. From the 1980s, malaria incidence declined, despite the challenges of large numbers of mobile and migrant populations and an unstable primary health care system in rural areas following economic transformation. Launch of the national malaria elimination programme in 2010 led to adoption of the '1-3-7' surveillance and response strategy specifying timely detection of and response for every case, supported by the establishment of a real-time web-based disease surveillance system and a new primary health care system in rural areas. Border malaria was addressed in Yunnan by strengthening the surveillance system down to the lowest level, cross-border collaboration with neighbouring countries and non-governmental organizations, and the involvement of other sectors. CONCLUSIONS: Seven decades of work to eliminate malaria in Yunnan have shown the importance of political commitment, technically sound strategies with high quality implementation, a robust surveillance and response system at all levels, community participation and effective management of border malaria. The experiences and lessons learned from elimination remain important for prevention re-establishment of malaria transmission in the Province.

Moving towards malaria elimination in southern Mozambique: Cost and cost-effectiveness of mass drug administration combined with intensified malaria control.

BACKGROUND: As new combinations of interventions aiming at interrupting malaria transmission are under evaluation, understanding the associated economic costs and benefits is critical for decision-making. This study assessed the economic cost and cost-effectiveness of the Magude project, a malaria elimination initiative implemented in a district in southern Mozambique (i.e. Magude) between August 2015-June 2018. This project piloted a combination of two mass drug administration (MDA) rounds per year for two consecutive years, annual rounds of universal indoor residual spraying (IRS) and a strengthened surveillance and response system on the back of universal long-lasting insecticide treated net (LLIN) coverage and routine case management implemented by the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP). Although local transmission was not interrupted, the project achieved large reductions in the burden of malaria in the target district. METHODS: We collected weekly economic data, estimated costs from the project implementer perspective and assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) associated with the Magude project as compared to routine malaria control activities, the counterfactual. We estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for malaria cases and deaths and assessed the variation of the ICER over time to capture the marginal costs and effectiveness associated with subsequent phases of project implementation. We used deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty and built an alternative scenario by assuming the implementation of the interventions from a governmental perspective. Economic costs are provided in constant US$2015. RESULTS: After three years, the Magude project averted a total of 3,171 DALYs at an incremental cost of $2.89 million and an average yearly cost of $20.7 per targeted person. At an average cost of $19.4 per person treated per MDA round, the social mobilization and distribution of door-to-door MDA contributed to 53% of overall resources employed, with personnel and logistics being the main cost drivers. The ICER improved over time as a result of decreasing costs and improved effectiveness. The overall ICER was $987 (CI95% 968-1,006) per DALY averted, which is below the standard cost-effectiveness (CE) threshold of $1,404/DALY averted, three times the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of Mozambique, but above the threshold of interventions considered highly cost-effective (one time the GDP per capita or $468/DALY averted) and above the recently suggested thresholds based on the health opportunity cost ($537 purchasing power parity/ DALY averted). A significantly lower ICER was obtained in the implementation scenario from a governmental perspective ($441/DALY averted). CONCLUSION: Despite the initial high costs and volume of resources associated with its implementation, MDA in combination with other existing malaria control interventions, can be a cost-effective strategy to drastically reduce transmission in areas of low to moderate transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. However, further studies are needed to understand the capacity of the health system and financial affordability to scale up such strategies at regional or national level.

Diarrhoeal disease and subsequent risk of death in infants and children residing in low-income and middle-income countries: analysis of the GEMS case-control study and 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study.

BACKGROUND: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) was a 3-year case-control study that measured the burden, aetiology, and consequences of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea (MSD) in children aged 0-59 months. GEMS-1A, a 12-month follow-on study, comprised two parallel case-control studies, one assessing MSD and the other less-severe diarrhoea (LSD). In this report, we analyse the risk of death with each diarrhoea type and the specific pathogens associated with fatal outcomes. METHODS: GEMS was a prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study done at seven sites in Africa and Asia. Children aged 0-59 months with MSD seeking care at sentinel health centres were recruited along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. In the 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study, children with LSD and matched controls, in addition to children with MSD and matched controls, were recruited at six of the seven sites; only cases of MSD and controls were enrolled at the seventh site. We compared risk of death during the period between enrolment and one follow-up household visit done about 60 days later (range 50-90 days) in children with MSD and LSD and in their respective controls. Approximately 50 pathogens were detected using, as appropriate, classic bacteriology, immunoassays, gel-based PCR and reverse transcriptase PCR, and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). Specimens from a subset of GEMS cases and controls were also tested by a TaqMan Array Card that compartmentalised probe-based qPCR for 32 enteropathogens. FINDINGS: 223 (2·0%) of 11 108 children with MSD and 43 (0·3%) of 16 369 matched controls died between study enrolment and the follow-up visit at about 60 days (hazard ratio [HR] 8·16, 95% CI 5·69-11·68, p<0·0001). 12 (0·4%) of 2962 children with LSD and seven (0·2%) of 4074 matched controls died during the follow-up period (HR 2·78, 95% CI 0·95-8·11, p=0·061). Risk of death was lower in children with dysenteric MSD than in children with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·20, 95% CI 0·05-0·87, p=0·032), and lower in children with LSD than in those with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·29, 0·14-0·59, p=0·0006). In children younger than 24 months with MSD, infection with typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli encoding heat-stable toxin, enteroaggregative E coli, Shigella spp (non-dysentery cases), Aeromonas spp, Cryptosporidium spp, and Entamoeba histolytica increased risk of death. Of 61 deaths in children aged 12-59 months with non-dysenteric MSD, 31 occurred among 942 children qPCR-positive for Shigella spp and 30 deaths occurred in 1384 qPCR-negative children (HR 2·2, 95% CI 1·2-3·9, p=0·0090), showing that Shigella was strongly associated with increased risk of death. INTERPRETATION: Risk of death is increased following MSD and, to a lesser extent, LSD. Considering there are approximately three times more cases of LSD than MSD in the population, more deaths are expected among children with LSD than in those with MSD. Because the major attributable LSD-associated and MSD-associated pathogens are the same, implementing vaccines and rapid diagnosis and treatment interventions against these major pathogens are rational investments. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Setting the scene and generating evidence for malaria elimination in Southern Mozambique.

Mozambique has historically been one of the countries with the highest malaria burden in the world. Starting in the 1960s, malaria control efforts were intensified in the southern region of the country, especially in Maputo city and Maputo province, to aid regional initiatives aimed to eliminate malaria in South Africa and eSwatini. Despite significant reductions in malaria prevalence, elimination was never achieved. Following the World Health Organization's renewed vision of a malaria-free-world, and considering the achievements from the past, the Mozambican National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) embarked on the development and implementation of a strategic plan to accelerate from malaria control to malaria elimination in southern Mozambique. An initial partnership, supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the La Caixa Foundation, led to the creation of the Mozambican Alliance Towards the Elimination of Malaria (MALTEM) and the Malaria Technical and Advisory Committee (MTAC) to promote national ownership and partner coordination to work towards the goal of malaria elimination in local and cross-border initiatives. Surveillance systems to generate epidemiological and entomological intelligence to inform the malaria control strategies were strengthened, and an impact and feasibility assessment of various interventions aimed to interrupt malaria transmission were conducted in Magude district (Maputo Province) through the "Magude Project". The primary aim of this project was to generate evidence to inform malaria elimination strategies for southern Mozambique. The goal of malaria elimination in areas of low transmission intensity is now included in the national malaria strategic plan for 2017-22 and the NMCP and its partners have started to work towards this goal while evidence continues to be generated to move the national elimination agenda forward.

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to identify causes of diarrhoea in children: a reanalysis of the GEMS case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea is the second leading cause of mortality in children worldwide, but establishing the cause can be complicated by diverse diagnostic approaches and varying test characteristics. We used quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to reassess causes of diarrhoea in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS). METHODS: GEMS was a study of moderate to severe diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years in Africa and Asia. We used quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to test for 32 enteropathogens in stool samples from cases and matched asymptomatic controls from GEMS, and compared pathogen-specific attributable incidences with those found with the original GEMS microbiological methods, including culture, EIA, and reverse-transcriptase PCR. We calculated revised pathogen-specific burdens of disease and assessed causes in individual children. FINDINGS: We analysed 5304 sample pairs. For most pathogens, incidence was greater with qPCR than with the original methods, particularly for adenovirus 40/41 (around five times), Shigella spp or enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) and Campylobactor jejuni o C coli (around two times), and heat-stable enterotoxin-producing E coli ([ST-ETEC] around 1·5 times). The six most attributable pathogens became, in descending order, Shigella spp, rotavirus, adenovirus 40/41, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium spp, and Campylobacter spp. Pathogen-attributable diarrhoeal burden was 89·3% (95% CI 83·2-96·0) at the population level, compared with 51·5% (48·0-55·0) in the original GEMS analysis. The top six pathogens accounted for 77·8% (74·6-80·9) of all attributable diarrhoea. With use of model-derived quantitative cutoffs to assess individual diarrhoeal cases, 2254 (42·5%) of 5304 cases had one diarrhoea-associated pathogen detected and 2063 (38·9%) had two or more, with Shigella spp and rotavirus being the pathogens most strongly associated with diarrhoea in children with mixed infections. INTERPRETATION: A quantitative molecular diagnostic approach improved population-level and case-level characterisation of the causes of diarrhoea and indicated a high burden of disease associated with six pathogens, for which targeted treatment should be prioritised. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Malaria: Global progress 2000 - 2015 and future challenges.

BACKGROUND: 2015 was the target year for malaria goals set by the World Health Assembly and other international institutions to reduce malaria incidence and mortality. A review of progress indicates that malaria programme financing and coverage have been transformed since the beginning of the millennium, and have contributed to substantial reductions in the burden of disease. FINDINGS: Investments in malaria programmes increased by more than 2.5 times between 2005 and 2014 from US$ 960 million to US$ 2.5 billion, allowing an expansion in malaria prevention, diagnostic testing and treatment programmes. In 2015 more than half of the population of sub-Saharan Africa slept under insecticide-treated mosquito nets, compared to just 2 % in 2000. Increased availability of rapid diagnostic tests and antimalarial medicines has allowed many more people to access timely and appropriate treatment. Malaria incidence rates have decreased by 37 % globally and mortality rates by 60 % since 2000. It is estimated that 70 % of the reductions in numbers of cases in sub-Saharan Africa can be attributed to malaria interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in malaria incidence and mortality rates have been made in every WHO region and almost every country. However, decreases in malaria case incidence and mortality rates were slowest in countries that had the largest numbers of malaria cases and deaths in 2000; reductions in incidence need to be greatly accelerated in these countries to achieve future malaria targets. Progress is made challenging because malaria is concentrated in countries and areas with the least resourced health systems and the least ability to pay for system improvements. Malaria interventions are nevertheless highly cost-effective and have not only led to significant reductions in the incidence of the disease but are estimated to have saved about US$ 900 million in malaria case management costs to public providers in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2014. Investments in malaria programmes can not only reduce malaria morbidity and mortality, thereby contributing to the health targets of the Sustainable Development Goals, but they can also transform the well-being and livelihood of some of the poorest communities across the globe.

The Burden of Cryptosporidium Diarrheal Disease among Children < 24 Months of Age in Moderate/High Mortality Regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Utilizing Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).

BACKGROUND: The importance of Cryptosporidium as a pediatric enteropathogen in developing countries is recognized. METHODS: Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a 3-year, 7-site, case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and GEMS-1A (1-year study of MSD and less-severe diarrhea [LSD]) were analyzed. Stools from 12,110 MSD and 3,174 LSD cases among children aged <60 months and from 21,527 randomly-selected controls matched by age, sex and community were immunoassay-tested for Cryptosporidium. Species of a subset of Cryptosporidium-positive specimens were identified by PCR; GP60 sequencing identified anthroponotic C. parvum. Combined annual Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea incidences among children aged <24 months for African and Asian GEMS sites were extrapolated to sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian regions to estimate region-wide MSD and LSD burdens. Attributable and excess mortality due to Cryptosporidium diarrhea were estimated. FINDINGS: Cryptosporidium was significantly associated with MSD and LSD below age 24 months. Among Cryptosporidium-positive MSD cases, C. hominis was detected in 77.8% (95% CI, 73.0%-81.9%) and C. parvum in 9.9% (95% CI, 7.1%-13.6%); 92% of C. parvum tested were anthroponotic genotypes. Annual Cryptosporidium-attributable MSD incidence was 3.48 (95% CI, 2.27-4.67) and 3.18 (95% CI, 1.85-4.52) per 100 child-years in African and Asian infants, respectively, and 1.41 (95% CI, 0.73-2.08) and 1.36 (95% CI, 0.66-2.05) per 100 child-years in toddlers. Corresponding Cryptosporidium-attributable LSD incidences per 100 child-years were 2.52 (95% CI, 0.33-5.01) and 4.88 (95% CI, 0.82-8.92) in infants and 4.04 (95% CI, 0.56-7.51) and 4.71 (95% CI, 0.24-9.18) in toddlers. We estimate 2.9 and 4.7 million Cryptosporidium-attributable cases annually in children aged <24 months in the sub-Saharan Africa and India/Pakistan/Bangladesh/Nepal/Afghanistan regions, respectively, and ~202,000 Cryptosporidium-attributable deaths (regions combined). ~59,000 excess deaths occurred among Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea cases over expected if cases had been Cryptosporidium-negative. CONCLUSIONS: The enormous African/Asian Cryptosporidium disease burden warrants investments to develop vaccines, diagnostics and therapies.

Changing Trends in P. falciparum Burden, Immunity, and Disease in Pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of reinfection and resurgence is an integral component of the goal to eradicate malaria. However, the adverse effects of malaria resurgences are not known. METHODS: We assessed the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection among 1819 Mozambican women who delivered infants between 2003 and 2012. We used microscopic and histologic examination and a quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (qPCR) assay, as well as flow-cytometric analysis of IgG antibody responses against two parasite lines. RESULTS: Positive qPCR tests for P. falciparum decreased from 33% in 2003 to 2% in 2010 and increased to 6% in 2012, with antimalarial IgG antibody responses mirroring these trends. Parasite densities in peripheral blood on qPCR assay were higher in 2010-2012 (geometric mean [±SD], 409±1569 genomes per microliter) than in 2003-2005 (44±169 genomes per microliter, P=0.02), as were parasite densities in placental blood on histologic assessment (50±39% of infected erythrocytes vs. 4±6%, P<0.001). The malaria-associated reduction in maternal hemoglobin levels was larger in 2010-2012 (10.1±1.8 g per deciliter in infected women vs. 10.9±1.7 g per deciliter in uninfected women; mean difference, -0.82 g per deciliter; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.39 to -0.25) than in 2003-2005 (10.5±1.1 g per deciliter vs. 10.6±1.5 g per deciliter; difference, -0.12 g per deciliter; 95% CI, -0.67 to 0.43), as was the reduction in birth weight (2863±440 g in women with past or chronic infections vs. 3070±482 g in uninfected women in 2010-2012; mean difference, -164.5 g; 95% CI, -289.7 to -39.4; and 2994±487 g vs. 3117±455 g in 2003-2005; difference, -44.8 g; 95% CI, -139.1 to 49.5). CONCLUSIONS: Antimalarial antibodies were reduced and the adverse consequences of P. falciparum infections were increased in pregnant women after 5 years of a decline in the prevalence of malaria. (Funded by Malaria Eradication Scientific Alliance and others.).

Invasive Salmonella Infections Among Children From Rural Mozambique, 2001-2014.

BACKGROUND: Invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) has emerged as a cause of bacteremia in African children and HIV-infected adults, which is associated with high mortality. Epidemiological data and burden of iNTS infections in resource-constrained settings are needed to better define preventive and curative strategies. METHODS: Blood and, if appropriate, cerebrospinal fluid, were collected from children <15 years of age with fever or severe disease admitted to the Manhiça District Hospital and cultured for NTS; isolates were then characterized. RESULTS: From January 2001 to December 2014, 41,668 of the 51,878 admitted children had a blood culture performed. Invasive NTS was isolated from 670 (1.6%) specimens collected from 41,668 patients; 69 (10.3% died). Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhi or Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Paratyphi A or C were only isolated in 14 (0.03%) patients. A total of 460 of 620 (74.2%) NTS isolates serotyped were Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhimurium (45% [116/258] of which were multilocus sequence type 313). The incidence of iNTS was 61.8 (95% confidence interval, 55.4-68.9) cases per 100,000 child-years, being highest among infants (217.7 cases/100,000 child-years). The incidence of iNTS declined significantly (P < .0001) over time, but the case fatality ratio remained constant at approximately 10%. Antimicrobial resistance of iNTS against most available antimicrobials has steadily increased, with a predominance of multidrug-resistant strains. CONCLUSIONS: The decreasing but still high incidence of iNTS, its high associated case fatality ratio, and the common detection of multidrug-resistant strains call for a need to improve treatment and prevention strategies for iNTS.

Timeliness and completeness of vaccination and risk factors for low and late vaccine uptake in young children living in rural southern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: We studied coverage and timeliness of vaccination and risk factors for low and delayed vaccine uptake in children aged <2 years in rural Tanzania. METHODS: We used data from a cluster survey conducted in 2004, which included 1403 children. Risk factors were analysed by log-binomial regression adjusted for the clustering. The analysis was restricted to BCG, first and third dose of Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis vaccines (DTP-1 and DTP-3) and first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV-1). RESULTS: Coverage for BCG, DTP-1, DTP-3 and MCV-1 was 94%, 96%, 90% and 86%, respectively. Delayed vaccination (>1 month after the recommended age) occurred in 398/1205 (33%) children for BCG, 404/1189 (34%) for DTP-1, 683/990 (69%) for DTP-3 and 296/643 (46%) for MCV-1. Coverage was lower for all vaccines except DTP-1 in children living ≥5 km from a healthcare facility. Delayed uptake was associated with poverty. Low and delayed MCV-1 vaccination was associated with low maternal education. Delayed BCG vaccination was associated with ethnicity and rainy season. CONCLUSION: Despite reasonably high vaccination coverage, we observed substantial vaccination delays, particularly for DTP-3 and MCV-1. We found specific factors associated with low and/or delayed vaccine uptake. These findings can help to improve strategies to reach children who remain inadequately protected.

Adult eyewitness memory and compliance: effects of post-event misinformation on memory for a negative event.

This study investigated effects of misleading post-event information, delay, and centrality definition on eyewitness memory and suggestibility for a negative event (a vividly filmed murder). Either immediately or 2 weeks after viewing the film, 93 adults read a (misleading or control) narrative about the event and then completed a recognition memory test. Misinformation acceptance was operative, but strong evidence for memory malleability was lacking. Compliance predicted misinformation effects, especially on the delayed test. Although accuracy was generally higher for central than peripheral information, centrality criteria influenced the pattern of results. Self-report of greater distress was associated with better recognition accuracy. The results suggest that use of different centrality definitions may partly explain inconsistencies across studies of memory and suggestibility for central and peripheral information. Moreover, social factors appeared, at least in part, to influence misinformation effects for the highly negative event, especially as memory faded. Implications for eyewitness memory and suggestibility are discussed.

Burden and aetiology of diarrhoeal disease in infants and young children in developing countries (the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, GEMS): a prospective, case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal diseases cause illness and death among children younger than 5 years in low-income countries. We designed the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to identify the aetiology and population-based burden of paediatric diarrhoeal disease in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. METHODS: The GEMS is a 3-year, prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in children aged 0-59 months residing in censused populations at four sites in Africa and three in Asia. We recruited children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea seeking care at health centres along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. From patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and controls, we obtained clinical and epidemiological data, anthropometric measurements, and a faecal sample to identify enteropathogens at enrolment; one follow-up home visit was made about 60 days later to ascertain vital status, clinical outcome, and interval growth. FINDINGS: We enrolled 9439 children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and 13,129 control children without diarrhoea. By analysing adjusted population attributable fractions, most attributable cases of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea were due to four pathogens: rotavirus, Cryptosporidium, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli producing heat-stable toxin (ST-ETEC; with or without co-expression of heat-labile enterotoxin), and Shigella. Other pathogens were important in selected sites (eg, Aeromonas, Vibrio cholerae O1, Campylobacter jejuni). Odds of dying during follow-up were 8·5-fold higher in patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea than in controls (odd ratio 8·5, 95% CI 5·8-12·5, p<0·0001); most deaths (167 [87·9%]) occurred during the first 2 years of life. Pathogens associated with increased risk of case death were ST-ETEC (hazard ratio [HR] 1·9; 0·99-3·5) and typical enteropathogenic E coli (HR 2·6; 1·6-4·1) in infants aged 0-11 months, and Cryptosporidium (HR 2·3; 1·3-4·3) in toddlers aged 12-23 months. INTERPRETATION: Interventions targeting five pathogens (rotavirus, Shigella, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium, typical enteropathogenic E coli) can substantially reduce the burden of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea. New methods and accelerated implementation of existing interventions (rotavirus vaccine and zinc) are needed to prevent disease and improve outcomes. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health care seeking for childhood diarrhea in developing countries: evidence from seven sites in Africa and Asia.

We performed serial Health Care Utilization and Attitudes Surveys (HUASs) among caretakers of children ages 0-59 months randomly selected from demographically defined populations participating in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in seven developing countries. The surveys aimed to estimate the proportion of children with MSD who would present to sentinel health centers (SHCs) where GEMS case recruitment would occur and provide a basis for adjusting disease incidence rates to include cases not seen at the SHCs. The proportion of children at each site reported to have had an incident episode of MSD during the 7 days preceding the survey ranged from 0.7% to 4.4% for infants (0-11 months of age), from 0.4% to 4.7% for toddlers (12-23 months of age), and from 0.3% to 2.4% for preschoolers (24-59 months of age). The proportion of MSD episodes at each site taken to an SHC within 7 days of diarrhea onset was 15-56%, 17-64%, and 7-33% in the three age strata, respectively. High cost of care and insufficient knowledge about danger signs were associated with lack of any care-seeking outside the home. Most children were not offered recommended fluids and continuing feeds at home. We have shown the utility of serial HUASs as a tool for optimizing operational and methodological issues related to the performance of a large case-control study and deriving population-based incidence rates of MSD. Moreover, the surveys suggest key targets for educational interventions that might improve the outcome of diarrheal diseases in low-resource settings.

Public health challenges and prospects for malaria control and elimination.

The past decade witnessed unprecedented efforts to control malaria, including renewed political and financial commitment and increased availability of both old and new strategies and tools. However, malaria still represents a major health burden, particularly in Africa. Important challenges such as the fragility of many health systems, the rise of insecticide and drug resistance, and particularly the expected decline both in funding and in the coverage of key interventions if they are not replaced as needed, urgently need to be addressed. Further research and development is also becoming increasingly crucial. Among other needs, common methodologies for estimating and tracking the malaria burden, new strategies to measure transmission, better understanding of immunity, and increased knowledge of the mechanisms and effects of resistance to drugs and insecticides stand out. The ongoing efforts in research and development for new antimalarial drugs, more sensitive point-of-care rapid diagnostic tests and new insecticides need further innovation and substantial strengthening. Clearly, efforts should focus not only on Plasmodium falciparum but also and increasingly on Plasmodium vivax, the neglected human malaria parasite. Addressing these challenges in a comprehensive and timely way will allow us to sustain the gains made so far and make further progress in control and progressive elimination.

Integrated vector management targeting Anopheles darlingi populations decreases malaria incidence in an unstable transmission area, in the rural Brazilian Amazon.

BACKGROUND: Studies on vector behaviour should be conducted in order to evaluate the effectiveness of vector control measures on malaria protection in endemic areas of Latin America, where P. vivax predominates. This work aims to investigate the fauna of anopheline mosquitoes and verify the impact of integrated vector management in two colonization projects in the Careiro Municipality, Western Brazilian Amazon. METHODS: Four mosquitoes' captures were carried out from August 2008 to March 2010, with an interval of six months between each collection. Since September 2009 a large programme to reduce the burden of malaria has started in the two communities by distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN) and intensification of indoor residual spraying (IRS). Human biting rates (HBRs), entomological inoculation rates (EIRs), malaria incidence rate (MIR) and Plasmodium carrier's prevalence were used as outcomes to estimate the impact of the control measures. RESULTS: A total of 3,189 anophelines were collected, belonging to 13 species. Anopheles darlingi was the predominant species in the period (42.6%), followed by Anopheles albitarsis (38.4%). An. darlingi HBRs showed a notable decreasing trend from the start to the end of the study. Conversely, An. albitarsis increased its contribution to overall HBRs throughout the study. For An. darlingi there was a significant positive correlation between HBRs and MIR (p = 0.002). Anopheles albitarsis HBRs showed a significant negative correlation with the corresponding MIR (p = 0.045). EIR from total anophelines and from An. darlingi and An. albitarsis presented decreasing patterns in the successive collections. Four species of anophelines (An. darlingi, An. albitarsis, Anopheles braziliensis and Anopheles nuneztovari) were naturally infected with Plasmodium, albeit at very low infection rates. There were a decrease in the MIR for both vivax and falciparum malaria and in the prevalence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum carriers during the period of study. CONCLUSIONS: There is strong evidence of association between the density of An. darlingi and the incidence of malaria in the studies sites, further highlighting the importance of this vector in malaria transmission in this region. An. darlingi susceptibility to control using ITN and IRS is likely to be high in the rural settlements studied.