Validation of FIB-6 score in assessment of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: We recently developed a simple novel index called fibrosis 6 (FIB-6) using machine learning data analysis. We aimed to evaluate its performance in the diagnosis of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: A retrospective observational analysis of data was obtained from seven countries (Egypt, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Turkey, Greece, Oman, Qatar, and Jordan) of CHB patients. The inclusion criteria were receiving an adequate liver biopsy and a complete biochemical and hematological data. The diagnostic performance analysis of the FIB-6 index was conducted and compared with other non-invasive scores. RESULTS: A total of 603 patients were included for the analysis; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of FIB-6 for the discrimination of patients with cirrhosis (F4), compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) (F3 and F4), and significant fibrosis (F2-F4) was 0.854, 0.812, and 0.745, respectively. The analysis using the optimal cut-offs of FIB-6 showed a sensitivity of 70.9%, specificity of 84.1%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 40.3%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 95.0% for the diagnosis of cirrhosis. For the diagnosis of cACLD, the results were 71.5%, 69.3%, 40.8%, and 89.2%, respectively, while for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis, the results were 68.3%, 67.5%, 59.9%, and 75.0%, respectively. When compared to those of fibrosis 4 (FIB-4) index, aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and AST-to-alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AAR), the AUROC for the performance of FIB-6 was higher than that of FIB-4, APRI, and AAR in all fibrosis stages. FIB-6 gave the highest sensitivity and NPV (89.1% and 92.4%) in ruling out cACLD and cirrhosis, as compared to FIB-4 (63.8% and 83.0%), APRI (53.9% and 86.6%), and AAR (47.5% and 82.3%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The FIB-6 index could be used in ruling out cACLD, fibrosis, and cirrhosis with good reliability.

The future health and economic burden of obesity-attributable type 2 diabetes and liver disease among the working-age population in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are increasing in Saudi Arabia (SA). Among other conditions, these risk factors increase the likelihood of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which in turn increases risks for advanced liver diseases, such as non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and cancer. The goal of this study was to quantify the health and economic burden of obesity-attributable T2DM and liver disease in SA. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation of the SA population to quantify the future incidence and direct health care costs of obesity-attributable T2DM and liver disease, including liver cancer. Model inputs included population demographics, body mass index, incidence, mortality and direct health care costs of T2DM and liver disease and relative risks of each condition as a function of BMI category. Model outputs included age- and sex-disaggregated incidence of obesity-attributable T2DM and liver disease and their direct health care costs for SA's working-age population (20-59 years) between 2020 and 2040. RESULTS: Between 2020 and 2040, the available data predicts 1,976,593 [± 1834] new cases of T2DM, 285,346 [±874] new cases of chronic liver diseases, and 2,101 [± 150] new cases of liver cancer attributable to obesity, amongst working-age people. By 2040, the direct health care costs of these obesity-attributable diseases are predicted to be 127,956,508,540 [± 51,882,446] USD. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in obesity-associated T2DM and liver disease emphasises the urgent need for obesity interventions and strategies to meaningfully reduce the future health and economic burden of T2DM, chronic liver diseases and liver cancer in SA.

Clinical and economic burden of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Middle East (ME) has a high prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), driven by obesity and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Studies in Saudi Arabia (KSA) and United Arab Emirates (UAE) predict an escalating impact of NAFLD/NASH, particularly advanced fibrosis due to NASH (AF-NASH), increasing cases of cirrhosis, liver cancer and death. The scale of this burden in other ME countries is unknown with no reports of NAFLD/NASH healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) or costs. We estimated the clinical and economic burden of NAFLD/NASH in KSA, UAE and Kuwait. METHODS: Markov models populated with country-specific obesity and T2DM prevalence data estimated numbers and progression of NAFLD/NASH patients from 2018 to 2030. Model inputs, assumptions and outputs were collected from literature, national statistics, and expert consensus. RESULTS: Over 13 years, the KSA model estimated cases increasing as follows: patients with fibrosis F0-3 doubled to 2.5 m, compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma trebled to 212,000; liver failure or transplant patients increased four-fold to 4,086 and liver-related death escalated from < 10,000 to > 200,000. Similar trends occurred in UAE and Kuwait. Discounted lifetime costs of NASH standard-care increased totaling USD40.41 bn, 1.59 bn and 6.36 bn in KSA, UAE (Emiratis only) and Kuwait, respectively. NASH-related costs in 2019 comprised, respectively, 5.83%, 5.80% and 7.66% of national healthcare spending. CONCLUSIONS: NASH, especially AF-NASH, should be considered a higher priority in ME Public Health policy. Our analyses should inform health policy makers to mitigate the enormity of this escalating regional burden.

Adapting evidence-based clinical practice guidelines at university teaching hospitals: A model for the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES: Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) are significant tools for evidence-based health care quality improvement. The CPG program at King Saud University was launched as a quality improvement program to fulfil the international accreditation standards. This program was a collaboration between the Research Chair for Evidence-Based Healthcare and Knowledge Translation and the Quality Management Department. This study aims to develop a fast-track method for adaptation of evidence-based CPGs and describe results of the program. METHODS: Twenty-two clinical departments participated in the program. Following a CPGs awareness week directed to all health care professionals (HCPs), 22 teams were trained to set priorities, search, screen, assess, select, and customize the best available CPGs. The teams were technically supported by the program's CPG advisors. To address the local health care context, a modified version of the ADAPTE was used where recommendations were either accepted or rejected but not changed. A strict peer-review process for clinical content and methodology was employed. RESULTS: In addition to raising awareness and building capacity, 35 CPGs were approved for implementation by March 2018. These CPGs were integrated with other existing projects such as accreditation, electronic medical records, performance management, and training and education. Preliminary implementation audits suggest a positive impact on patient outcomes. Leadership commitment was a strength, but the high turnover of the team members required frequent and extensive training for HCPs. CONCLUSION: This model for CPG adaptation represents a quick, practical, economical method with a sense of ownership by staff. Using this modified version can be replicated in other countries to assess its validity.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden - Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, 2017-2030.

Background/Aim: Due to epidemic levels of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) will be driving factors in liver disease burden in the coming years in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE). Materials and Methods: Models were used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression, primarily based on changes in adult prevalence rates of adult obesity and DM. The published estimates and expert interviews were used to build and validate the model projections. Results: In both countries, the prevalence of NAFLD increased through 2030 parallel to projected increases in the prevalence of obesity and DM. By 2030, there were an estimated 12,534,000 NAFLD cases in Saudi Arabia and 372,000 cases in UAE. Increases in NASH cases were relatively greater than the NAFLD cases due to aging of the population and disease progression. Likewise, prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis and advanced liver disease are projected to at least double by 2030, while annual incident liver deaths increase in both countries to 4800 deaths in Saudi Arabia and 140 deaths in UAE. Conclusions: Continued high rates of adult obesity and DM, in combination with aging populations, suggest that advanced liver disease and mortality attributable to NAFLD/NASH will increase across both countries. Reducing the growth of the NAFLD population, along with potential therapeutic options, will be needed to reduce liver disease burden.

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) may enhance implementation of clinical practice guidelines: An experience from the Middle East.

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES: Implementation of clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) has been shown to reduce variation in practice and improve health care quality and patients' safety. There is a limited experience of CPG implementation (CPGI) in the Middle East. The CPG program in our institution was launched in 2009. The Quality Management department conducted a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for further improvement of CPGI. METHODS: This is a prospective study of a qualitative/quantitative design. Our FMEA included (1) process review and recording of the steps and activities of CPGI; (2) hazard analysis by recording activity-related failure modes and their effects, identification of actions required, assigned severity, occurrence, and detection scores for each failure mode and calculated the risk priority number (RPN) by using an online interactive FMEA tool; (3) planning: RPNs were prioritized, recommendations, and further planning for new interventions were identified; and (4) monitoring: after reduction or elimination of the failure mode. The calculated RPN will be compared with subsequent analysis in post-implementation phase. RESULTS: The data were scrutinized from a feedback of quality team members using a FMEA framework to enhance the implementation of 29 adapted CPGs. The identified potential common failure modes with the highest RPN (≥ 80) included awareness/training activities, accessibility of CPGs, fewer advocates from clinical champions, and CPGs auditing. Actions included (1) organizing regular awareness activities, (2) making CPGs printed and electronic copies accessible, (3) encouraging senior practitioners to get involved in CPGI, and (4) enhancing CPGs auditing as part of the quality sustainability plan. CONCLUSION: In our experience, FMEA could be a useful tool to enhance CPGI. It helped us to identify potential barriers and prepare relevant solutions.

Assessment of pro-inflammatory cytokines in sera of patients with hepatitis C virus infection before and after anti-viral therapy.

INTRODUCTION: A number of cytokines have been implicated in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related liver disease. This study aimed to assess the serum levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines in patients with HCV infection before (naïve) and after successful treatment (sustained responders) with Pegylated interferon and ribavirin. METHODOLOGY: The present study included 19 naïve HCV patients and 8 sustained responders. Additionally, 20 healthy individuals were included as a control group. The serum levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokines interleukin-8 (IL-8), IL-6, IL-10, IL-1ß, and IL-12p70 were measured using flow cytometry. RESULTS: The serum IL-8 levels were significantly higher in the naïve group (21.5±10.7 pg/mL; p=0.02) than in the control group (14.1±1.7 pg/mL) and the sustained responder group (10.4±6.2 pg/mL; p=0.002). The serum IL-6 levels were significantly higher in the naïve group (7.3±2.06 pg/mL; p=0.02) than in the control group (5.9±1.01 pg/mL) whereas IL-6 in sustained responder group (6.4±1.5 pg/mL) was no different than naïve HCV patients or the controls. The serum IL-10 levels were significantly higher in the naïve group (4.42±0.64 pg/mL) than in the control group (3.6±0.34 pg/mL; p=0.0002) and not the sustained responder group (4.1±0.86 pg/mL). Moreover, the serum IL-12p70 levels were higher in the sustained responder group (3.43±0.84 pg/mL; p=0.05) than in the control group (2.76±0.83 pg/mL). There were no differences in the serum IL-1ß levels among the groups. CONCLUSION: Successful anti-viral therapy against HCV was associated with significant reductions in the serum IL-8 levels and skewing of the pretreatment Th2 dominant immune response to the Th1 response.

Assessment of alpha-fetoprotein in the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in Middle Eastern patients.

BACKGROUND: Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may vary by geographical region and racial background. No data exists for this test in the Middle Eastern population. In addition, there is limited data on the impact of virological status on AFP levels. METHODS: In a multicenter, case-control study involving 206 cases, 199 cirrhotic and 197 chronic hepatitis controls, we assessed the utility of AFP in the diagnosis of HCC (sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values, and positive likelihood ratios (LR). PPV and NPV were evaluated for three additional HCC prevalence rates (5, 10, and 20%). RESULTS: The best discriminating AFP value was 11.7 ng/ml. The sensitivity ranged from 32 to 79.5% at different AFP levels with the specificity increasing sequentially from 47.7 to 98.5%. Sensitivity of AFP at the best cut-off level for hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and non-viral etiology for HCC was 73.7, 65.6, and 59.5%, respectively. Specificity at this level for HCV, HBV, and non-viral etiology was 36.6, 30.1, and 29.4%, respectively. AFP cut-off levels of 102, 200, and 400 ng/ml showed similar sensitivity (39.8, 35.9, and 32%, respectively) and specificity (96, 98.5, and 98.5% respectively). Positive LR for AFP at >11.7, >20, >102, >200, >400 ng/ml were 2.8, 3.3, 9.9, 23.8, and 21.2, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In cirrhotic patients, AFP has a poor screening and diagnostic value for HCC. Underlying viral etiology fails to influence the diagnostic accuracy of this test. An AFP level greater than 100 ng/ml has a high degree of specificity and may be used as a confirmatory test.

Liver biopsy for histological assessment: The case in favor.

Liver biopsy (LB) is the gold standard method for assessment of liver histology. It provides valuable, otherwise unobtainable information, regarding the degree of fibrosis, parenchymal integrity, degree and pattern of inflammation, bile duct status and deposition of materials and minerals in the liver. This information provides immense help in the diagnosis and prognostication of a variety of liver diseases. With careful selection of patients, and performance of the procedure appropriately, the complications become exceptionally rare in current clinical practice. Furthermore, the limitations of sampling error and inter-/intra-observer variability may be avoided by obtaining adequate tissue specimen and having it reviewed by an experienced liver pathologist. Current noninvasive tools are unqualified to replace LB in clinical practice in the face of specific limitations for each tool, compounded by a poorer performance towards the assessment of the degree of liver fibrosis, particularly for intermediate stages.