Decision tree risk analysis for FMD outbreak prevention in Egyptian feedlots.

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is one of the most contagious and economically influential viral diseases on animal health and productivity. Introduction of newly purchased animals to beef farms constitutes a greater risk for the FMD outbreaks in endemic countries. Physical examination of newly purchased animals in live animal markets and/or at the receiving farm, and the timing of preventative FMD vaccination may reduce the risk of FMD outbreaks under endemic conditions. Small (< 50 animals) and medium (50-500 animals) sized beef farms in Egypt constitute more than 60% of the country's beef industry where protocols for receiving newly purchased animals vary widely between farms. The current risk analysis aimed to build a decision tree model to reduce FMD outbreaks associated with introduction of replacement cattle on Egypt's medium sized beef farms. Management practices explored were the use of physical examinations and FMD vaccination and their timing for replacements with the goal of reducing losses due to FMD outbreaks. A producer survey revealed that more than 50% of the study herds relied on live animal markets as a source for replacements and reported more FMD outbreaks (P-value=0.09), FMD herd morbidity > 50% (p-value=0.05), and weight loss > 15 kg/animal in FMD clinical cases (P-value=0.01) in comparison to herds that received replacements from other farms, imported, or purchased from small stakeholders. More than 70% of the surveyed farms received replacements ≤ 1year old and reported significantly higher FMD outbreaks (P-value=0.02) in comparison to farms that received older animals. More than 80% of the surveyed farms performed physical examination of newly purchased animals before arrival at their premises. Of the surveyed farms, 73% reported FMD outbreaks with 67% of the outbreaks being reported during the Fall and Winter seasons. The decision tree identified physical examination of newly purchased animals prior to arrival and mixing with a premises beef herd followed by vaccination against FMD upon arrival as the intervention resulting in the lowest probability of FMD outbreak (8.9%). In contrast, herds that did not perform physical examination and delay the FMD vaccination for two or more weeks had the highest probability of FMD outbreaks (33.5%).

Components of a risk assessment tool for prevention and control of bovine respiratory disease in preweaned dairy calves.

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is the leading natural cause of death in US beef and dairy cattle, causing the annual loss of more than 1 million animals and financial losses in excess of $700 million. The multiple etiologies of BRD and its complex web of risk factors necessitate a herd-specific intervention plan for its prevention and control on dairies. Hence, a risk assessment is an important tool that producers and veterinarians can utilize for a comprehensive assessment of the management and host factors that predispose calves to BRD. The current study identifies the steps taken to develop the first BRD risk assessment tool and its components, namely the BRD risk factor questionnaire, the BRD scoring system, and a herd-specific BRD control and prevention plan. The risk factor questionnaire was designed to inquire on aspects of calf-rearing including management practices that affect calf health generally, and BRD specifically. The risk scores associated with each risk factor investigated in the questionnaire were estimated based on data from two observational studies. Producers can also estimate the prevalence of BRD in their calf herds using a smart phone or tablet application that facilitates selection of a true random sample of calves for scoring using the California BRD scoring system. Based on the risk factors identified, producers and herd veterinarians can then decide the management changes needed to mitigate the calf herd's risk for BRD. A follow-up risk assessment after a duration of time sufficient for exposure of a new cohort of calves to the management changes introduced in response to the risk assessment is recommended to monitor the prevalence of BRD.

Cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies using quantitative real-time PCR and bacterial culture to identify contagious mastitis cases in large dairy herds.

Diagnostic strategies to detect contagious mastitis caused by Mycoplasma bovis, Staphylococcus aureus, and Streptococcus agalactiae in dairy herds during an outbreak have been minimally studied with regard to cost and diagnostic sensitivity. The objective of this cross-sectional study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies for identification of infected cows in two California dairy herds during contagious mastitis outbreaks. M. bovis was investigated in a subset of a herd (n=1210 cows) with an estimated prevalence of 2.8% (95% CI=1.9, 3.7), whereas Staph. aureus and Strep. agalactiae were studied in a second herd (n=351 cows) with an estimated prevalence of 3.4% (95% CI=1.5, 5.3) and 16.8% (95% CI=12.9, 20.7), respectively. Diagnostic strategies involved a combination of testing stages that utilized bacterial culture, quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR), or both. Strategies were applied to individual or pooled samples of 5, 10, 50 or 100 samples. Culture was considered the gold standard for sensitivity estimation of each strategy. The reference strategy was the strategy with the lowest cost per culture-positive cow which for both M. bovis and Strep. agalactiae consisted of 2 stages, culture of samples in pools of 5 followed by culture of individual samples in positive pools with a sensitivity of 73.5% (95% CI: 55.6, 87.1) and 96.6% (95% CI: 27.7, 84.8), respectively. The reference strategy for Staph. aureus consisted of 3 stages, culture of individual samples in pools of 100 (stage 1), culture constituents of those positive from stage 1 in pools of 5 (stage 2), culture constituents of those positive from stage 2 individually (stage 3) which resulted in a sensitivity of 58.3% (95% CI: 88.3, 99.6). The most cost-effective alternative to the reference strategy was whole herd milk culture for all 3 pathogens. QPCR testing was a component of the second most cost-effective alternative for M. bovis and the third most cost-effective alternatives for the 3 pathogens. A stochastic model was used to assess the effect of prevalence or herd size on the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies. In the current study, increasing the prevalence of mastitis did not alter the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness. However, larger herds could benefit from testing larger pools such as 50 or 100 samples to improve cost-effectiveness. Several diagnostic strategy options exist to identify contagious mastitis in herds, decisions should be based on cost and sensitivity of the strategies available.

Cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies to identify Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis super-shedder cows in a large dairy herd using antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, and bacterial culture.

Diagnostic strategies to detect Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) super-shedder cows in dairy herds have been minimally studied. The objective of the current study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of strategies for identification of MAP super-shedders on a California dairy herd of 3,577 cows housed in free-stall pens. Eleven strategies that included serum or milk enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) or culture of environmental samples, pooled or individual cow fecal samples, or combinations thereof were compared. Nineteen super-shedders (0.5%) were identified by qPCR and confirmed by culture as cows shedding ≥ 10,000 colony forming units (CFU)/g feces (median of 30,000 CFU/g feces). A stratified random sample of the study herd based on qPCR results of fecal pools was the most sensitive (74%) strategy and had the highest cost ($5,398/super-shedder). The reference strategy with the lowest cost ($1,230/super-shedder) and sensitivity (47%) included qPCR testing of fecal samples from ELISA-positive lactating (milk) and nonlactating (serum) cows housed in pens with the highest MAP bioburden. The most cost-effective alternative to the reference was to perform qPCR testing of fecal samples from ELISA-positive cows (milk and serum for milking and dry cows, respectively) for a sensitivity of 68% and cost of $2,226/super-shedder. In conclusion, diagnostic strategies varied in their cost-effectiveness depending on the tests, specimen type, and labor costs. Initial qPCR testing of environmental samples from free-stall pens to target cows in pens with the highest MAP bioburden for further testing can improve the cost-effectiveness of strategies for super-shedder identification.