Cost-effectiveness of intervention combinations towards the elimination of vertical transmission of HIV in limited-resource settings: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Since 2000, there has been a substantial global reduction in the vertical transmission of HIV. Despite effective interventions, gaps still remain in progress towards elimination in many low-income and middle-income countries. We developed a mathematical model to determine the most cost-effective combinations of interventions to prevent vertical transmission. METHODS: We developed a 12-month Markov model to follow a cohort of women of childbearing age (aged 15-49 years) in Zambia (n=1 107 255) who were either pregnant, in delivery, or breastfeeding; the population included in the model reflects the estimated number of pregnant women in Zambia from the 2018 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey. The model incorporated nine interventions: infant prophylaxis; three different HIV retesting schedule options; oral pre-exposure prophylaxis; maternal peer-support groups; regimen shift; tracing of loss to follow-up; and point-of-care viral load testing. We analysed incident HIV infections among mothers and infants, intervention costs, and evaluated 190 scenarios of different combinations of inventions to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) over 1 year. FINDINGS: Three interventions with the greatest reduction in vertical transmission, individually, were support groups for 80% of those in need (35% reduction in infant infections), HIV retesting schedules (6·5% reduction), and infant prophylaxis (4·5% reduction). Of all 190 scenarios evaluated, eight were on the cost-effectiveness frontier (ie, were considered to be cost-effective); all eight included increasing infant prophylaxis, regimen shift, and use of support groups. Excluding the highest-cost scenarios, for a 1-22% increase in total budget, 23-43% of infant infections could be prevented, producing ICERs between US$244 and $16 242. INTERPRETATION: Using the interventions modelled, it is possible to reduce vertical transmission and to cost-effectively prevent up to 1734 infant HIV infections (43% reduction) in Zambia over a period of 1 year. To optimise their effect, these interventions must be scaled with fidelity. Future work is needed to incorporate evidence on additional innovative interventions and HIV risk factors, and to apply the model to other country contexts to support targeted implementation and resource use. FUNDING: The ELMA Foundation.

Securing accelerated access to long-acting injectable cabotegravir for HIV prevention in low- and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: Reductions in HIV acquisition have slowed, and the global community is significantly off track from global goals. Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) alone cannot address the diverse needs of the millions of people at risk of HIV acquisition. Long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) received United States Food and Drug Administration approval for HIV prevention in December 2021. When studied, CAB-LA demonstrated high effectiveness, provides months of protection versus daily use, is preferred by some users and has the potential to achieve commodity cost reduction. These factors position CAB-LA to catalyse transformation in HIV prevention. Significant work must be undertaken to ensure at-scale uptake in low- and middle-income countries. Leveraging decades of product introduction experience, Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) has developed an innovative roadmap to support equitable CAB-LA introduction, comprising tightly executed market-shaping, product development, regulatory, and programmatic and implementation action. DISCUSSION: Proven models exist (e.g. long-acting reversible contraceptives, paediatric tuberculosis treatment and antiretrovirals (ARVs), such as paediatric dolutegravir and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, lamivudine, and dolutegravir) for partnership-driven, accelerated, impactful product introduction. Based on learnings from these models and needs in the prevention space, CHAI developed a roadmap to maximize the near-term impact of CAB-LA and accelerate the development of, access to and impact of quality-assured, low-cost generic CAB-LA. This roadmap is intended to inform introduction planning and investment decision-making across a range of stakeholders, including donors, governments, manufacturers and other partners working in the HIV prevention space. Elements include (1) ensuring coordination and alignment across partners, and avoiding redundancy experienced during oral PrEP introduction; (2) preparing national programmes and providing support to maximize impact, including the development of national policies, guidelines and introduction plans; system strengthening; quantification and procurement; and addressing evidence needs, among other areas; (3) supporting community engagement, ensuring that demand generation and delivery approaches are person-centred and community-led; (4) incentivizing generic product development through, for example, milestone-based commercialization incentives and product development cost-sharing; and (5) expediting regulatory reviews. CONCLUSIONS: Accelerating access to affordable, generic CAB-LA can transform progress towards HIV epidemic control. This vision of impact at scale in prevention is achievable, if informed by results-backed approaches to introduction.

Predicted effects of the introduction of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended by WHO as an additional option for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, but there is concern that its introduction could lead to an increase in integrase-inhibitor resistance undermining treatment programmes that rely on dolutegravir. We aimed to project the health benefits and risks of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in settings in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: With HIV Synthesis, an individual-based HIV model, we simulated 1000 setting-scenarios reflecting both variability and uncertainty about HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and compared outcomes for each with and without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction. PrEP use is assumed to be risk-informed and to be used only in 3-month periods (the time step for the model) when having condomless sex. We consider three groups at risk of integrase-inhibitor resistance emergence: people who start cabotegravir-PrEP after (unknowingly) being infected with HIV, those who seroconvert while on PrEP, and those with HIV who have residual cabotegravir drugs concentrations during the early tail period after recently stopping PrEP. We projected the outcomes of policies of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction and of no introduction in 2022 across 50 years. In 50% of setting-scenarios we considered that more sensitive nucleic-acid-based HIV diagnostic testing (NAT), rather than regular antibody-based HIV rapid testing, might be used to reduce resistance risk. For cost-effectiveness analysis we assumed in our base case a cost of cabotegravir-PrEP drug to be similar to oral PrEP, resulting in a total annual cost of USD$144 per year ($114 per year and $264 per year considered in sensitivity analyses), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life years averted, and a discount rate of 3% per year. FINDINGS: Reflecting our assumptions on the appeal of cabotegravir-PrEP, its introduction is predicted to lead to a substantial increase in PrEP use with approximately 2·6% of the adult population (and 46% of those with a current indication for PrEP) receiving PrEP compared with 1·5% (28%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction across 20 years. As a result, HIV incidence is expected to be lower by 29% (90% range across setting-scenarios 6-52%) across the same period compared with no introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP. In people initiating antiretroviral therapy, the proportion with integrase-inhibitor resistance after 20 years is projected to be 1·7% (0-6·4%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction but 13·1% (4·1-30·9%) with. Cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is predicted to lower the proportion of all people on antiretroviral therapy with viral loads less than 1000 copies per mL by 0·9% (-2·5% to 0·3%) at 20 years. For an adult population of 10 million an overall decrease in number of AIDS deaths of about 4540 per year (-13 000 to -300) across 50 years is predicted, with little discernible benefit with NAT when compared with standard antibody-based rapid testing. AIDS deaths are predicted to be averted with cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in 99% of setting-scenarios. Across the 50-year time horizon, overall HIV programme costs are predicted to be similar regardless of whether cabotegravir-PrEP is introduced (total mean discounted annual HIV programme costs per year across 50 years is $151·3 million vs $150·7 million), assuming the use of standard antibody testing. With antibody-based rapid HIV testing, the introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective under an assumed threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life year averted in 82% of setting-scenarios at the cost of $144 per year, in 52% at $264, and in 87% at $114. INTERPRETATION: Despite leading to increases in integrase-inhibitor drug resistance, cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is likely to reduce AIDS deaths in addition to HIV incidence. Long-acting cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective if delivered at similar cost to oral PrEP with antibody-based rapid HIV testing. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health.

Ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030: Time to reset targets for 2025.

Paul De Lay and co-authors introduce a Collection on the design of targets for ending the AIDS epidemic.

Can the generic antiretroviral industry support access to a universal antiretroviral regimen?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The generic antiretroviral (ARV) industry played a critical role in the massive scale-up of HIV treatment in low-income and middle-income countries since 2000. As the global community looks ahead to a universal antiretroviral regimen, this article considers the industry's role in supporting universal access to affordable, simpler, more durable, and tolerable HIV treatment regimens. RECENT FINDINGS: Generic manufacturers made treatment scale-up in low-income and middle-income countries possible through reducing prices, combining molecules from different originator companies to develop optimal fixed-dose combinations, and investing in production capacity to meet escalating demand. Achieving scale-up of a universal regimen will require continued partnership in these areas. Collaboration on the demand and supply sides of the ARV marketplace will be required to foster a healthy and sustainable marketplace for new regimens. This includes clear priority setting from the global treatment community on priority products; predictable demand; regulatory prioritization of optimal products; effective tendering and procurement practices that enable multiple suppliers to participate in the market; coordinated product introduction efforts between Ministries of Health, partners, and civil society; and transparency from both buyers and suppliers to promote and monitor supply security. SUMMARY: New regimens will benefit people living with HIV, as well as buyers and generic suppliers, by maximizing existing production capacity and treatment budgets to reach the 90-90-90 goals.

Optimizing antiretroviral product selection: a sample approach to improving patient outcomes, saving money, and scaling-up health services in developing countries.

Over the last decade, increased funding to support HIV treatment programs has enabled millions of new patients in developing countries to access the medications they need. Today, although demand for antiretrovirals continues to grow, the financial crisis has severely constrained funding leaving countries with difficult choices on program prioritization. Product optimization is one solution countries can pursue to continue to improve patient care while also uncovering savings that can be used for further scale up or other health system needs. Program managers can make procurement decisions that actually reduce program costs by considering additional factors beyond World Health Organization guidelines when making procurement decisions. These include in-country product availability, convenience, price, and logistics such as supply chain implications and laboratory testing requirements. Three immediate product selection opportunities in the HIV space include using boosted atazanavir in place of lopinovir for second-line therapy, lamivudine instead of emtricitabine in both first-line and second-line therapy, and tenofovir + lamivudine over abacavir + didanosine in second-line therapy. If these 3 opportunities were broadly implemented in sub-Saharan Africa and India today, approximately $300 million of savings would be realized over the next 5 years, enabling hundreds of thousands of additional patients to be treated. Although the discussion herein is specific to antriretrovirals, the principles of product selection are generalizable to diseases with multiple treatment options and fungible commodity procurement. Identifying and implementing approaches to overcome health system inefficiencies will help sustain and may expand quality care in resource-limited settings.