The Burden of Disease due to COVID-19 (BoCO-19): A study protocol for a secondary analysis of surveillance data in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had an extensive impact on public health worldwide. However, in many countries burden of disease indicators for COVID-19 have not yet been calculated or used for monitoring. The present study protocol describes an approach developed in the project "The Burden of Disease due to COVID-19. Towards a harmonization of population health metrics for the surveillance of dynamic outbreaks" (BoCO-19). The process of data collection and aggregation across 14 different countries and sub-national regions in Southern and Eastern Europe and Central Asia is described, as well as the methodological approaches used. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study implemented in BoCO-19 is a secondary data analysis, using information from national surveillance systems as part of mandatory reporting on notifiable diseases. A customized data collection template is used to gather aggregated data on population size as well as COVID-19 cases and deaths. Years of life lost (YLL), as one component of the number of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY), are calculated as described in a recently proposed COVID-19 disease model (the 'Burden-EU' model) for the calculation of DALY. All-cause mortality data are collected for excess mortality sensitivity analyses. For the calculation of Years lived with disability (YLD), the Burden-EU model is adapted based on recent evidence. Because Covid-19 cases vary in terms of disease severity, the possibility and suitability of applying a uniform severity distribution of cases across all countries and sub-national regions will be explored. An approach recently developed for the Global Burden of Disease Study, that considers post-acute consequences of COVID-19, is likely to be adopted. Findings will be compared to explore the quality and usability of the existing data, to identify trends across age-groups and sexes and to formulate recommendations concerning potential improvements in data availability and quality. DISCUSSION: BoCO-19 serves as a collaborative platform in order to build international capacity for the calculation of burden of disease indicators, and to support national experts in the analysis and interpretation of country-specific data, including their strengths and weaknesses. Challenges include inherent differences in data collection and reporting systems between countries, as well as assumptions that have to be made during the calculation process.

[Evaluating the introduction of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis as a benefit of statutory health insurance (EvE-PrEP) : Highly effective protection against HIV without an increase in sexually transmitted infections]. / Evaluation der Einführung der HIV-Präexpositionsprophylaxe als Leistung der gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung (EvE­PrEP) : Hocheffektiver Schutz vor HIV und keine Zunahme von sexuell übertragbaren Infektionen.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the impact of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) as a new service of the statutory health insurance (SHI) on the incidence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Germany. In addition, PrEP needs and access barriers were analyzed. METHODS: The following data were evaluated as part of the evaluation project: HIV and syphilis notification data and extended surveillance by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), pharmacy prescription data, SHI routine data, PrEP use in HIV-specialty care centers, Checkpoint, the BRAHMS and PrApp studies, as well as a community board. RESULTS: The majority of PrEP users were male (98-99%), primarily aged between 25-45 years, and predominantly of German nationality or origin (67-82%). The majority were men who have sex with men (99%). With regard to HIV infections, PrEP proved to be highly effective. There were only isolated cases of HIV infections (HIV incidence rate 0.08/100 person years); in most cases the suspected reason was low adherence. The incidences of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis did not increase but remained almost the same or even decreased. A need for information on PrEP for people in trans*/non-binary communities, sex workers, migrants, and drug users emerged. Needs-based services for target groups at increased risk of HIV are necessary. DISCUSSION: PrEP proved to be a very effective HIV prevention method. The partly feared indirect negative influences on STI rates were not confirmed in this study. Due to the temporal overlap with the containment measures during the COVID-19 pandemic, a longer observation period would be desirable for a conclusive assessment.

Assessing varicella vaccine effectiveness and its influencing factors using health insurance claims data, Germany, 2006 to 2015.

In Germany, routine childhood varicella vaccination was implemented in 2004 with two doses recommended since 2009. We used an immunisation information system based on countrywide health insurance claims data to analyse vaccine effectiveness (VE) and factors influencing VE. We applied proportional hazard models to estimate VE under various conditions and compared the risk of acquiring varicella among unvaccinated children in regions with high vs low vaccination coverage (VC). Among 1.4 million children we identified 29,404 varicella cases over a maximum follow-up of 8 years post-vaccination. One-dose VE was 81.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 81.4-82.5), two-dose VE 94.4% (95% CI: 94.2-94.6). With dose one given 1-27 days after measles-containing vaccine (MCV), one-dose VE was 32.2% (95% CI: 10.4-48.6), two-dose VE 92.8% (95% CI: 84.8-96.6). VE was not associated with age at vaccination (11-14 vs ≥ 15 months), time since vaccination, or vaccine type. Unvaccinated children had a twofold higher risk of acquiring varicella in low VC regions. Our system generated valuable data, showing that two-dose varicella vaccination provides good protection for at least 8 years. Unvaccinated children benefit from herd effects. When the first varicella vaccine dose is given shortly after MCV, a second dose is essential.

Estimation of influenza-attributable medically attended acute respiratory illness by influenza type/subtype and age, Germany, 2001/02-2014/15.

BACKGROUND: The total burden of influenza in primary care is difficult to assess. The case definition of medically attended "acute respiratory infection" (MAARI) in the German physician sentinel is sensitive; however, it requires modelling techniques to derive estimates of disease attributable to influenza. We aimed to examine the impact of type/subtype and age. METHODS: Data on MAARI and virological results of respiratory samples (virological sentinel) were available from 2001/02 until 2014/15. We constructed a generalized additive regression model for the periodic baseline and the secular trend. The weekly number of influenza-positive samples represented influenza activity. In a second step, we distributed the estimated influenza-attributable MAARI (iMAARI) according to the distribution of types/subtypes in the virological sentinel. RESULTS: Season-specific iMAARI ranged from 0.7% to 8.9% of the population. Seasons with the strongest impact were dominated by A(H3), and iMAARI attack rate of the pandemic 2009 (A(H1)pdm09) was 4.9%. Regularly the two child age groups (0-4 and 5-14 years old) had the highest iMAARI attack rates reaching frequently levels up to 15%-20%. Influenza B affected the age group of 5- to 14-year-old children substantially more than any other age group. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated both comparability and stability of the model. CONCLUSION: We constructed a model that is well suited to estimate the substantial impact of influenza on the primary care sector. A(H3) causes overall the greatest number of iMAARI, and influenza B has the greatest impact on school-age children. The model may incorporate time series of other pathogens as they become available.