Prognostic evaluation of quick sequential organ failure assessment score in ICU patients with sepsis across different income settings.

BACKGROUND: There is conflicting evidence on association between quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) and sepsis mortality in ICU patients. The primary aim of this study was to determine the association between qSOFA and 28-day mortality in ICU patients admitted for sepsis. Association of qSOFA with early (3-day), medium (28-day), late (90-day) mortality was assessed in low and lower middle income (LLMIC), upper middle income (UMIC) and high income (HIC) countries/regions. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of the MOSAICS II study, an international prospective observational study on sepsis epidemiology in Asian ICUs. Associations between qSOFA at ICU admission and mortality were separately assessed in LLMIC, UMIC and HIC countries/regions. Modified Poisson regression was used to determine the adjusted relative risk (RR) of qSOFA score on mortality at 28 days with adjustments for confounders identified in the MOSAICS II study. RESULTS: Among the MOSAICS II study cohort of 4980 patients, 4826 patients from 343 ICUs and 22 countries were included in this secondary analysis. Higher qSOFA was associated with increasing 28-day mortality, but this was only observed in LLMIC (p < 0.001) and UMIC (p < 0.001) and not HIC (p = 0.220) countries/regions. Similarly, higher 90-day mortality was associated with increased qSOFA in LLMIC (p < 0.001) and UMIC (p < 0.001) only. In contrast, higher 3-day mortality with increasing qSOFA score was observed across all income countries/regions (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that qSOFA remained associated with 28-day mortality (adjusted RR 1.09 (1.00-1.18), p = 0.038) even after adjustments for covariates including APACHE II, SOFA, income country/region and administration of antibiotics within 3 h. CONCLUSIONS: qSOFA was independently associated with 28-day mortality in ICU patients admitted for sepsis. In LLMIC and UMIC countries/regions, qSOFA was associated with early to late mortality but only early mortality in HIC countries/regions.

Health economic evaluation alongside the Probiotics to Prevent Severe Pneumonia and Endotracheal Colonization Trial (E-PROSPECT): a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PURPOSE: We sought to compare the cost-effectiveness of probiotics and usual care with usual care without probiotics in mechanically ventilated, intensive care unit patients alongside the Probiotics to Prevent Severe Pneumonia and Endotracheal Colonization Trial (PROSPECT). METHODS: We conducted a health economic evaluation alongside the PROSPECT randomized control trial (October 2013-March 2019). We adopted a public healthcare payer's perspective. Forty-four intensive care units in three countries (Canada/USA/Saudi Arabia) with adult critically ill, mechanically ventilated patients (N = 2,650) were included. Interventions were probiotics (Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG) vs placebo administered enterally twice daily. We collected healthcare resource use and estimated unit costs in 2019 United States dollars (USD) over a time horizon from randomization to hospital discharge/death. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) comparing probiotics vs usual care. The primary outcome was incremental cost per ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) event averted; secondary outcomes were costs per Clostridioides difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD), antibiotic-associated diarrhea (AAD), and mortality averted. Uncertainty was investigated using nonparametric bootstrapping and sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Mean (standard deviation [SD]) cost per patient was USD 66,914 (91,098) for patients randomized to probiotics, with a median [interquartile range (IQR)] of USD 42,947 [22,239 to 76,205]. By comparison, for those not receiving probiotics, mean (SD) cost per patient was USD 62,701 (78,676) (median [IQR], USD 41,102 [23,170 to 75,140]; incremental cost, USD 4,213; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2,269 to 10,708). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for VAP or AAD events averted, probiotics were dominated by usual care (more expensive, with similar effectiveness). The ICERs were USD 1,473,400 per CDAD event averted (95% CI, undefined) and USD 396,764 per death averted (95% CI, undefined). Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves reveal that probiotics were not cost-effective across wide ranges of plausible willingness-to-pay thresholds. Sensitivity analyses did not change the conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: Probiotics for VAP prevention among critically ill patients were not cost-effective. Study registration data www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov (NCT01782755); registered 4 February 2013.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Nous avons cherché à comparer le rapport coût-efficacité d'un traitement avec probiotiques ajoutés aux soins habituels avec des soins habituels prodigués sans probiotiques chez les patients des soins intensifs sous ventilation mécanique dans le cadre de l'étude PROSPECT (Probiotics to Prevent Severe Pneumonia and Endotracheal Colonization Trial). MéTHODE: Nous avons réalisé une évaluation de l'économie de la santé parallèlement à l'étude randomisée contrôlée PROSPECT (octobre 2013-mars 2019). Nous avons adopté le point de vue d'un payeur public de services de santé. Quarante-quatre unités de soins intensifs dans trois pays (Canada/États-Unis/Arabie saoudite) prenant soin de patients adultes gravement malades sous ventilation mécanique (n = 2650) ont été inclus. Les interventions ont été les suivantes : probiotiques (Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG) vs placebo administrés par voie entérale deux fois par jour. Nous avons recueilli les données concernant l'utilisation des ressources en soins de santé et estimé les coûts unitaires en dollars américains (USD) de 2019 sur un horizon temporel allant de la randomisation au congé de l'hôpital / décès. Nous avons calculé des rapports coût-efficacité différentiels (RCED) en comparant les probiotiques vs les soins habituels. Le critère d'évaluation principal était le coût différentiel par événement évité de pneumonie associée au ventilateur (PAV); les critères d'évaluation secondaires étaient les coûts par diarrhée associée au Clostridioides difficile (DACD), diarrhée associée aux antibiotiques (DAA) et mortalité évitées. L'incertitude a été étudiée à l'aide d'analyses d'amorçage et de sensibilité non paramétriques. RéSULTATS: Le coût moyen (écart type [ÉT]) par patient était de 66 914 (91 098) USD pour les patients randomisés au groupe probiotiques, avec une médiane [écart interquartile (ÉIQ)] de 42 947 USD [22 239 à 76 205]. En comparaison, pour ceux ne recevant pas de probiotiques, le coût moyen (ÉT) par patient était de 62 701 USD (78 676) (médiane [ÉIQ], 41 102 USD [23 170 à 75 140]; coût différentiel, 4213 USD; intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95%, -2269 à 10 708). En matière de rapports coût-efficacité différentiels pour les événements de PAV ou DAA évités, les probiotiques étaient dominés par les soins habituels (plus coûteux, avec une efficacité similaire). Les RCED étaient de 1 473 400 USD par événement de DACD évitée (IC 95 %, non défini) et de 396 764 USD par décès évité (IC 95 %, non défini). Les courbes d'acceptabilité coût-efficacité révèlent que les probiotiques n'étaient pas rentables dans de larges gammes de seuils plausibles de volonté de payer. Les analyses de sensibilité n'ont pas modifié les conclusions. CONCLUSION: Les probiotiques utilisés pour prévenir la PAV chez les patients gravement malades n'étaient pas rentables. Enregistrement de l'étude : www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01782755); enregistrée le 4 février 2013.

Epidemiology, Management, and Outcomes of Sepsis in ICUs among Countries of Differing National Wealth across Asia.

Rationale: Directly comparative data on sepsis epidemiology and sepsis bundle implementation in countries of differing national wealth remain sparse. Objectives: To evaluate across countries/regions of differing income status in Asia 1) the prevalence, causes, and outcomes of sepsis as a reason for ICU admission and 2) sepsis bundle (antibiotic administration, blood culture, and lactate measurement) compliance and its association with hospital mortality. Methods: A prospective point prevalence study was conducted among 386 adult ICUs from 22 Asian countries/regions. Adult ICU participants admitted for sepsis on four separate days (representing the seasons of 2019) were recruited. Measurements and Main Results: The overall prevalence of sepsis in ICUs was 22.4% (20.9%, 24.5%, and 21.3% in low-income countries/regions [LICs]/lower middle-income countries/regions [LMICs], upper middle-income countries/regions, and high-income countries/regions [HICs], respectively; P < 0.001). Patients were younger and had lower severity of illness in LICs/LMICs. Hospital mortality was 32.6% and marginally significantly higher in LICs/LMICs than HICs on multivariable generalized mixed model analysis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-3.37; P = 0.049). Sepsis bundle compliance was 21.5% at 1 hour (26.0%, 22.1%, and 16.2% in LICs/LMICs, upper middle-income countries/regions, and HICs, respectively; P < 0.001) and 36.6% at 3 hours (39.3%, 32.8%, and 38.5%, respectively; P = 0.001). Delaying antibiotic administration beyond 3 hours was the only element independently associated with increased mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 2.53; 95% confidence interval, 2.07-3.08; P < 0.001). Conclusions: Sepsis is a common cause of admission to Asian ICUs. Mortality remains high and is higher in LICs/LMICs after controlling for confounders. Sepsis bundle compliance remains low. Delaying antibiotic administration beyond 3 hours from diagnosis is associated with increased mortality. Clinical trial registered with www.ctri.nic.in (CTRI/2019/01/016898).

Machine learning decision tree algorithm role for predicting mortality in critically ill adult COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and is currently a major cause of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions globally. The role of machine learning in the ICU is evolving but currently limited to diagnostic and prognostic values. A decision tree (DT) algorithm is a simple and intuitive machine learning method that provides sequential nonlinear analysis of variables. It is simple and might be a valuable tool for bedside physicians during COVID-19 to predict ICU outcomes and help in critical decision-making like end-of-life decisions and bed allocation in the event of limited ICU bed capacities. Herein, we utilized a machine learning DT algorithm to describe the association of a predefined set of variables and 28-day ICU outcome in adult COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU. We highlight the value of utilizing a machine learning DT algorithm in the ICU at the time of a COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This was a prospective and multicenter cohort study involving 14 hospitals in Saudi Arabia. We included critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU between March 1, 2020, and October 31, 2020. The predictors of 28-day ICU mortality were identified using two predictive models: conventional logistic regression and DT analyses. RESULTS: There were 1468 critically ill COVID-19 patients included in the study. The 28-day ICU mortality was 540 (36.8 %), and the 90-day mortality was 600 (40.9 %). The DT algorithm identified five variables that were integrated into the algorithm to predict 28-day ICU outcomes: need for intubation, need for vasopressors, age, gender, and PaO2/FiO2 ratio. CONCLUSION: DT is a simple tool that might be utilized in the ICU to identify critically ill COVID-19 patients who are at high risk of 28-day ICU mortality. However, further studies and external validation are still required.

Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness and Injury: An Exploratory Multicenter International Quality-Improvement Study in the ICUs With Variable Resources.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the "Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness and Injury" decision support tool during ICU admission and rounding is associated with improvements in nonadherence to evidence-based daily care processes and outcomes in variably resourced ICUs. DESIGN, SETTINGS, PATIENTS: This before-after study was performed in 34 ICUs (15 countries) from 2013 to 2017. Data were collected for 3 months before and 6 months after Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness and Injury implementation. INTERVENTIONS: Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness and Injury implementation using remote simulation training. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The coprimary outcomes, modified from the original protocol before data analysis, were nonadherence to 10 basic care processes and ICU and hospital length of stay. There were 1,447 patients in the preimplementation phase and 2,809 patients in the postimplementation phase. After adjusting for center effect, Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness and Injury implementation was associated with reduced nonadherence to care processes (adjusted incidence rate ratio [95% CI]): deep vein thrombosis prophylaxis (0.74 [0.68-0.81), peptic ulcer prophylaxis (0.46 [0.38-0.57]), spontaneous breathing trial (0.81 [0.76-0.86]), family conferences (0.86 [0.81-0.92]), and daily assessment for the need of central venous catheters (0.85 [0.81-0.90]), urinary catheters (0.84 [0.80-0.88]), antimicrobials (0.66 [0.62-0.71]), and sedation (0.62 [0.57-0.67]). Analyses adjusted for baseline characteristics showed associations of Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness and Injury implementation with decreased ICU length of stay (adjusted ratio of geometric means [95% CI]) 0.86 [0.80-0.92]), hospital length of stay (0.92 [0.85-0.97]), and hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI], 0.81 (0.69-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: A quality-improvement intervention with remote simulation training to implement a decision support tool was associated with decreased nonadherence to daily care processes, shorter length of stay, and decreased mortality.

Managing ICU surge during the COVID-19 crisis: rapid guidelines.

Given the rapidly changing nature of COVID-19, clinicians and policy makers require urgent review and summary of the literature, and synthesis of evidence-based guidelines to inform practice. The WHO advocates for rapid reviews in these circumstances. The purpose of this rapid guideline is to provide recommendations on the organizational management of intensive care units caring for patients with COVID-19 including: planning a crisis surge response; crisis surge response strategies; triage, supporting families, and staff.

Cost-Effectiveness of Erythropoietin in Traumatic Brain Injury: A Multinational Trial-Based Economic Analysis.

The EPO-TBI multi-national randomized controlled trial found that erythropoietin (EPO), when compared to placebo, did not affect 6-month neurological outcome, but reduced illness severity-adjusted mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI), making the cost-effectiveness of EPO in TBI uncertain. The current study uses patient-level data from the EPO-TBI trial to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of EPO in patients with moderate or severe TBI from the healthcare payers' perspective. We addressed the issue of transferability in multi-national trials by estimating costs and effects for specific geographical regions of the study (Australia/New Zealand, Europe, and Saudi Arabia). Unadjusted mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs; 95% confidence interval [CI]) at 6 months were 0.027 (0.020-0.034; p < 0.001) higher in the EPO group, with an adjusted QALY increment of 0.014 (0.000-0.028; p = 0.04). Mean unadjusted costs (95% CI) were $US5668 (-9191 to -2144; p = 0.002) lower in the treatment group; controlling for baseline IMPACT-TBI score and regional heterogeneity reduced this difference to $2377 (-12,446 to 7693; p = 0.64). For a willingness-to-pay threshold of $US50,000 per QALY, 71.8% of replications were considered cost-effective. Therefore, we did not find evidence that EPO was significantly cost-effective in the treatment of moderate or severe TBI at 6-month follow-up.

Psychometric properties of the Arabic version of the confusion assessment method for the intensive care unit (CAM-ICU).

BACKGROUND: It is recommended that critically ill patients undergo routine delirium monitoring with a valid and reliable tool such as the Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU). However, the validity and reliability of the Arabic version of the CAM-ICU has not been investigated. Here, we test the validity and reliability of the Arabic CAM-ICU. METHODS: We conducted a psychometric study at ICUs in a tertiary-care hospital in Saudi Arabia. We recruited consecutive adult Arabic-speaking patients, who had stayed in the ICU for at least 24 hours, and had a Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale (RASS) score ≥ - 2 at examination. Two well-trained examiners (ICU nurse and intensivist) independently assessed delirium in eligible patients with the Arabic CAM-ICU. Evaluations by the two examiners were compared with psychiatrist blind clinical assessment of delirium according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5). Subgroup analyses were conducted for age, invasive mechanical ventilation, and gender. RESULTS: We included 108 patients (mean age: 62.6 ± 17.6; male: 51.9%), of whom 37% were on invasive mechanical ventilation. Delirium was diagnosed in 63% of enrolled patients as per the psychiatrist clinical assessment. The Arabic CAM-ICU sensitivity was 74% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.63-0.84) and 56% (95%CI = 0.44-0.68) for the ICU nurse and intensivist, respectively. Specificity was 98% (95%CI = 0.93-1.0) and 92% (95%CI = 0.84-1.0), respectively. Sensitivity was greater for mechanically-ventilated patients, women, and those aged ≥65 years. Specificity was greater for those aged < 65 years, non-mechanically-ventilated patients and men. The median duration to complete the Arabic CAM-ICU was 2 min (interquartile range, 2-3) and 4.5 min (IQR, 3-5) for the ICU nurse and intensivist, respectively. Inter-rater reliability (kappa) was 0.66. CONCLUSIONS: The Arabic CAM-ICU demonstrated acceptable reliability and validity to assess delirium in Arabic-speaking ICU patients.

Antimicrobial consumption in five adult intensive care units: a 33-month surveillance study.

Background: Estimating the baseline antimicrobial consumption is extremely important to monitor the impact of antimicrobial stewardship activities that aim to reduce the burden and cost of antimicrobial consumption. Objectives: To quantify service-specific antimicrobial consumption using different metrics. Methods: A surveillance study was conducted at King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between October 2012 and June 2015 in five adult intensive care units (ICUs). Consumption data were collected manually on a daily basis by infection control practitioners. Data were presented as defined daily dose (DDD), days of therapy (DOT) per 1000 patient days, and frequency of daily consumption. Results: A total of 43,970 DDDs and 46,940 DOTs were monitored during 54,116 patient-days. For the most frequently consumed antimicrobials, the consumption of carbapenems, piperacillin/tazobactam, vancomycin, and colistin (respectively) in all ICUs combined were 255.9, 134.3, 98.2, and 13.6 DDDs per 1000 patient-days and 235.7, 145.9, 129.5, and 117.5 DOTs per 1000 patient-days. For the frequency of daily consumption, carbapenems were the most frequently consumed antimicrobial group in medical/surgical, burn, and step-down ICUs while piperacillin/tazobactam was the most frequently consumed antimicrobial in neuro-surgical and cardio-thoracic ICUs. Conclusion: High consumption of broad-spectrum antimicrobial agents such as meropenem and piperacillin/tazobactam is observed in multiple ICUs in a tertiary care hospital. Meropenem consumption is considerably higher than similar ICUs internationally. Future studies focusing on concurrent monitoring of antimicrobial resistance and identifying patient and physician characteristics associated with specific prescription patterns may help in improving judicious antimicrobial consumption.

Geo-economic variations in epidemiology, patterns of care, and outcomes in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: insights from the LUNG SAFE prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available about the geo-economic variations in demographics, management, and outcomes of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to characterise the effect of these geo-economic variations in patients enrolled in the Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure (LUNG SAFE). METHODS: LUNG SAFE was done during 4 consecutive weeks in winter, 2014, in a convenience sample of 459 intensive-care units in 50 countries across six continents. Inclusion criteria were admission to a participating intensive-care unit (including transfers) within the enrolment window and receipt of invasive or non-invasive ventilation. One of the trial's secondary aims was to characterise variations in the demographics, management, and outcome of patients with ARDS. We used the 2016 World Bank countries classification to define three major geo-economic groupings, namely European high-income countries (Europe-High), high-income countries in the rest of the world (rWORLD-High), and middle-income countries (Middle). We compared patient outcomes across these three groupings. LUNG SAFE is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02010073. FINDINGS: Of the 2813 patients enrolled in LUNG SAFE who fulfilled ARDS criteria on day 1 or 2, 1521 (54%) were recruited from Europe-High, 746 (27%) from rWORLD-High, and 546 (19%) from Middle countries. We noted significant geographical variations in demographics, risk factors for ARDS, and comorbid diseases. The proportion of patients with severe ARDS or with ratios of the partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO2) to the fractional concentration of oxygen in inspired air (FiO2) less than 150 was significantly lower in rWORLD-High countries than in the two other regions. Use of prone positioning and neuromuscular blockade was significantly more common in Europe-High countries than in the other two regions. Adjusted duration of invasive mechanical ventilation and length of stay in the intensive-care unit were significantly shorter in patients in rWORLD-High countries than in Europe-High or Middle countries. High gross national income per person was associated with increased survival in ARDS; hospital survival was significantly lower in Middle countries than in Europe-High or rWORLD-High countries. INTERPRETATION: Important geo-economic differences exist in the severity, clinician recognition, and management of ARDS, and in patients' outcomes. Income per person and outcomes in ARDS are independently associated. FUNDING: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine, St Michael's Hospital, University of Milan-Bicocca.

Application of Failure Mode Effect Analysis to Improve the Care of Septic Patients Admitted Through the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: Failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) is a proactive multistep tool used to analyze risks, identify failures before they occur, and prioritize preventive measures. METHODS: A multidisciplinary team trained on FMEA methodology analyzed the process of treatment of septic patients and recorded processes under 3 major phases (recognition of severe sepsis, referral, and resuscitation). The team identified potential failure modes in each process; assigned severity, occurrence, and detection scores for each; and calculated the risk priority numbers (RPNs). Finally, higher-priority failure modes (RPN of ≥300) were analyzed to redesign the care process. RESULTS: We identified 27 processes and 48 failure modes with a mean RPN of 270. Twenty-two high-risk failures were identified by RPN of 300 or higher. All identified critical processes were related to phase 1 (recognition of sepsis) and phase 3 (resuscitation). The most critical process seemed to be related to the initial workup and treatment of septic patients, with 4 potential failure modes and a total RPN of 1485. CONCLUSIONS: Patient safety and care reliability issues are a major concern in health care. This study suggests that tools such as FMEA can enable a detailed analysis of the care process of septic patients by outlining potential failure modes and guiding improvement efforts.

Time-Limited Trials of Intensive Care for Critically Ill Patients With Cancer: How Long Is Long Enough?

IMPORTANCE: Time-limited trials of intensive care are commonly used in patients perceived to have a poor prognosis. The optimal duration of such trials is unknown. Factors such as a cancer diagnosis are associated with clinician pessimism and may affect the decision to limit care independent of a patient's severity of illness. OBJECTIVE: To identify the optimal duration of intensive care for short-term mortality in critically ill patients with cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Decision analysis using a state-transition microsimulation model was performed to simulate the hospital course of patients with poor-prognosis primary tumors, metastatic disease, or hematologic malignant neoplasms admitted to medical and surgical intensive care units. Transition probabilities were derived from 920 participants stratified by sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores to identify severity of illness. The model was validated in 3 independent cohorts with 349, 158, and 117 participants from quaternary care academic hospitals. Monte Carlo microsimulation was performed, followed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Outcomes were assessed in the overall cohort and in solid tumors alone. INTERVENTIONS: Time-unlimited vs time-limited trials of intensive care. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: 30-day all-cause mortality and mean survival duration. RESULTS: The SOFA scores at ICU admission were significantly associated with mortality. A 3-, 8-, or 15-day trial of intensive care resulted in decreased mean 30-day survival vs aggressive care in all but the sickest patients (SOFA score, 5-9: 48.4% [95% CI, 48.0%-48.8%], 60.6% [95% CI, 60.2%-61.1%], and 66.8% [95% CI, 66.4%-67.2%], respectively, vs 74.6% [95% CI, 74.3%-75.0%] with time-unlimited aggressive care; SOFA score, 10-14: 36.2% [95% CI, 35.8%-36.6%], 44.1% [95% CI, 43.6%-44.5%], and 46.1% [95% CI, 45.6%-46.5%], respectively, vs 48.4% [95% CI, 48.0%-48.8%] with aggressive care; SOFA score, ≥ 15: 5.8% [95% CI, 5.6%-6.0%], 8.1% [95% CI, 7.9%-8.3%], and 8.3% [95% CI, 8.1%-8.6%], respectively, vs 8.8% [95% CI, 8.5%-9.0%] with aggressive care). However, the clinical magnitude of these differences was variable. Trial durations of 8 days in the sickest patients offered mean survival duration that was no more than 1 day different from time-unlimited care, whereas trial durations of 10 to 12 days were required in healthier patients. For the subset of patients with solid tumors, trial durations of 1 to 4 days offered mean survival that was not statistically significantly different from time-unlimited care. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Trials of ICU care lasting 1 to 4 days may be sufficient in patients with poor-prognosis solid tumors, whereas patients with hematologic malignant neoplasms or less severe illness seem to benefit from longer trials of intensive care.

Statistical analysis plan for the Erythropoietin in Traumatic Brain Injury trial: a randomised controlled trial of erythropoietin versus placebo in moderate and severe traumatic brain injury.

BACKGROUND: The Erythropoietin in Traumatic Brain Injury (EPO-TBI) trial aims to determine whether the administration of erythropoietin to patients with moderate or severe traumatic brain injury improves patient-centred outcomes. METHODS: EPO-TBI is a multicentre, blinded, randomised, parallel groups, placebo-controlled, phase III superiority trial of erythropoietin in ICU patients with traumatic brain injury conducted in Australia and New Zealand, Saudi Arabia and Europe; 606 critically ill patients aged 15 to 65 years with moderate or severe acute traumatic brain injury will be enrolled. Trial patients will receive either 40,000 IU erythropoietin or placebo by subcutaneous injection administered weekly for up to three doses during their ICU admission. The primary outcome measure is the proportion of unfavourable neurological outcomes, comprising death or severe disability, observed at 6 months following randomisation utilizing the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale. Secondary outcomes, also assessed at 6 months following randomisation, include the probability of an equal or greater Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale level, mortality, the proportions of patients with proximal deep venous thrombosis or with composite thrombotic vascular events, as well as assessment of quality of life and cost-effectiveness. The planned sample size will allow 90% power to detect a reduction from 50% to 36% in unfavourable neurological outcomes at a two-sided alpha of 0.05. DISCUSSION: A detailed analysis plan has been developed for EPO-TBI that is consistent with international guidelines. This plan specifies the statistical models for evaluation of primary and secondary outcomes, as well as defining covariates for adjusted analyses. Application of this statistical analysis plan to the forthcoming EPO-TBI trial will facilitate unbiased analyses of these important clinical data. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12609000827235 (22 September 2009). ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00987454 (29 September 2009). European Drug Regulatory Authorities Clinical Trials: 2011-005235-22 (18 January 2012).

Economic evaluation of the prophylaxis for thromboembolism in critical care trial (E-PROTECT): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common complication of critical illness with important clinical consequences. The Prophylaxis for ThromboEmbolism in Critical Care Trial (PROTECT) is a multicenter, blinded, randomized controlled trial comparing the effectiveness of the two most common pharmocoprevention strategies, unfractionated heparin (UFH) and low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) dalteparin, in medical-surgical patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). E-PROTECT is a prospective and concurrent economic evaluation of the PROTECT trial. METHODS/DESIGN: The primary objective of E-PROTECT is to identify and quantify the total (direct and indirect, variable and fixed) costs associated with the management of critically ill patients participating in the PROTECT trial, and, to combine costs and outcome results to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of LMWH versus UFH, from the acute healthcare system perspective, over a data-rich time horizon of ICU admission and hospital admission. We derive baseline characteristics and probabilities of in-ICU and in-hospital events from all enrolled patients. Total costs are derived from centers, proportional to the numbers of patients enrolled in each country. Direct costs include medication, physician and other personnel costs, diagnostic radiology and laboratory testing, operative and non-operative procedures, costs associated with bleeding, transfusions and treatment-related complications. Indirect costs include ICU and hospital ward overhead costs. Outcomes are the ratio of incremental costs per incremental effects of LMWH versus UFH during hospitalization; incremental cost to prevent a thrombosis at any site (primary outcome); incremental cost to prevent a pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis, major bleeding event or episode of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (secondary outcomes) and incremental cost per life-year gained (tertiary outcome). Pre-specified subgroups and sensitivity analyses will be performed and confidence intervals for the estimates of incremental cost-effectiveness will be obtained using bootstrapping. DISCUSSION: This economic evaluation employs a prospective costing methodology concurrent with a randomized controlled blinded clinical trial, with a pre-specified analytic plan, outcome measures, subgroup and sensitivity analyses. This economic evaluation has received only peer-reviewed funding and funders will not play a role in the generation, analysis or decision to submit the manuscripts for publication. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00182143 . Date of registration: 10 September 2005.

Cost-effectiveness of dalteparin vs unfractionated heparin for the prevention of venous thromboembolism in critically ill patients.

IMPORTANCE: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common complication of acute illness, and its prevention is a ubiquitous aspect of inpatient care. A multicenter blinded, randomized trial compared the effectiveness of the most common pharmocoprevention strategies, unfractionated heparin (UFH) and the low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) dalteparin, finding no difference in the primary end point of leg deep-vein thrombosis but a reduced rate of pulmonary embolus and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia among critically ill medical-surgical patients who received dalteparin. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the comparative cost-effectiveness of LMWH vs UFH for prophylaxis against VTE in critically ill patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective economic evaluation concurrent with the Prophylaxis for Thromboembolism in Critical Care Randomized Trial (May 2006 to June 2010). The economic evaluation adopted a health care payer perspective and in-hospital time horizon; derived baseline characteristics and probabilities of intensive care unit and in-hospital events; and measured costs among 2344 patients in 23 centers in 5 countries and applied these costs to measured resource use and effects of all enrolled patients. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Costs, effects, incremental cost-effectiveness of LMWH vs UFH during the period of hospitalization, and sensitivity analyses across cost ranges. RESULTS: Hospital costs per patient were $39,508 (interquartile range [IQR], $24,676 to $71,431) for 1862 patients who received LMWH compared with $40,805 (IQR, $24,393 to $76,139) for 1862 patients who received UFH (incremental cost, -$1297 [IQR, -$4398 to $1404]; P = .41). In 78% of simulations, a strategy using LMWH was most effective and least costly. In sensitivity analyses, a strategy using LMWH remained least costly unless the drug acquisition cost of dalteparin increased from $8 to $179 per dose and was consistent among higher- and lower-spending health care systems. There was no threshold at which lowering the acquisition cost of UFH favored prophylaxis with UFH. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: From a health care payer perspective, the use of the LMWH dalteparin for VTE prophylaxis among critically ill medical-surgical patients was more effective and had similar or lower costs than the use of UFH. These findings were driven by lower rates of pulmonary embolus and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia and corresponding lower overall use of resources with LMWH.

Screening and prevention of venous thromboembolism in critically ill patients: a decision analysis and economic evaluation.

RATIONALE: Venous thromboembolism is difficult to diagnose in critically ill patients and may increase morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies to reduce morbidity from venous thromboembolism in critically ill patients. METHODS: A Markov decision analytic model to compare weekly compression ultrasound screening (screening) plus investigation for clinically suspected deep vein thrombosis (DVT) (case finding) versus case finding alone; and a hypothetical program to increase adherence to DVT prevention. Probabilities were derived from a systematic review of venous thromboembolism in medical-surgical intensive care unit patients. Costs (in 2010 $US) were obtained from hospitals in Canada, Australia, and the United States, and the medical literature. Analyses were conducted from a societal perspective over a lifetime horizon. Outcomes included costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In the base case, the rate of proximal DVT was 85 per 1,000 patients. Screening resulted in three fewer pulmonary emboli than case-finding alone but also two additional bleeding episodes, and cost $223,801 per QALY gained. In sensitivity analyses, screening cost less than $50,000 per QALY only if the probability of proximal DVT increased from a baseline of 8.5-16%. By comparison, increasing adherence to appropriate pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis by 10% resulted in 16 fewer DVTs, one fewer pulmonary emboli, and one additional heparin-induced thrombocytopenia and bleeding event, and cost $27,953 per QALY gained. Programs achieving increased adherence to best-practice venous thromboembolism prevention were cost-effective over a wide range of program costs and were robust in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Appropriate prophylaxis provides better value in terms of costs and health gains than routine screening for DVT. Resources should be targeted at optimizing thromboprophylaxis.

An assessment of the Acute Kidney Injury Network creatinine-based criteria in patients submitted to mechanical ventilation.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The aim of our study was to assess the new diagnostic criteria of acute kidney injury (AKI) proposed by the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) in a large cohort of mechanically ventilated patients. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: This is a prospective observational cohort study enrolling 2783 adult intensive care unit patients under mechanical ventilation (MV) with data on serum creatinine concentration (SCr) in the first 48 hours. The absolute and the relative AKIN diagnostic criteria (changes in SCr ≥ 0.3 mg/dl or ≥ 50% over the first 48 hours of MV, respectively) were analyzed separately. In addition, patients were classified into three groups according to their change in SCr (ΔSCr) over the first day on MV (ΔSCr): group 1, ΔSCr ≤ -0.3 mg/dl; group 2, ΔSCr between -0.3 and +0.29 mg/dl; and group 3, ΔSCr ≥ +0.3 mg/dl). The primary end point was in-hospital mortality, and secondary end points were intensive care unit and hospital length of stay, and duration of MV. RESULTS: Of 2783 patients, 803 (28.8%) had AKI according to both criteria: 431 only absolute (AKI(A)), 362 both relative and absolute (AKI(R+A)), and 10 only relative. The relative criterion identified more patients when baseline SCr (SCr0) was <0.9 mg/dl and the absolute when SCr0 was >1.5 mg/dl. The diagnosis of AKI was associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms the validity of the AKIN criteria in a population of mechanically patients and the criteria's relationship with the baseline SCr.

Pro/con debate: octreotide has an important role in the treatment of gastrointestinal bleeding of unknown origin?

Whether it is the primary reason for admission or a complication of critical illness, upper gastrointestinal bleeding is commonly encountered in the intensive care unit. In this setting, in the absence of endoscopy, intensivists generally provide supportive care (transfusion of blood products) and acid suppression (such as proton pump inhibitors). More recently, octreotide (a somatostatin analogue) has been used in such patients. However, its precise role in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding is not necessarily clear and the drug is associated with significant costs. In this issue of Critical Care, two expert teams debate the merits of using octreotide in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

Assessment of six mortality prediction models in patients admitted with severe sepsis and septic shock to the intensive care unit: a prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: We conducted the present study to assess the validity of mortality prediction systems in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with severe sepsis and septic shock. We included Acute Physiology and Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Mortality Probability Model (MPM) II0 and MPM II24 in our evaluation. In addition, SAPS II and MPM II24 were customized for septic patients in a previous study, and the customized versions were included in this evaluation. MATERIALS AND METHOD: This cohort, prospective, observational study was conducted in a tertiary care medical/surgical ICU. Consecutive patients meeting the diagnostic criteria for severe sepsis and septic shock during the first 24 hours of ICU admission between March 1999 and August 2001 were included. The data necessary for mortality prediction were collected prospectively as part of the ongoing ICU database. Predicted and actual mortality rates, and standardized mortality ratio were calculated. Calibration was assessed using Lemeshow-Hosmer goodness of fit C-statistic. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: The overall mortality prediction was adequate for all six systems because none of the standardized mortality ratios differed significantly from 1. Calibration was inadequate for APACHE II, SAPS II, MPM II0 and MPM II24. However, the customized version of SAPS II exhibited significantly improved calibration (C-statistic for SAPS II 23.6 [P = 0.003] and for customized SAPS II 11.5 [P = 0.18]). Discrimination was best for customized MPM II24 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.826), followed by MPM II24 and customized SAPS II. CONCLUSION: Although general ICU mortality system models had accurate overall mortality prediction, they had poor calibration. Customization of SAPS II and, to a lesser extent, MPM II24 improved calibration. The customized model may be a useful tool when evaluating outcomes in patients with sepsis.

Improving resource utilization in the intensive care units. A challenge for Saudi Hospitals.

In the face of increasing demand of intensive care services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as well as the high cost of delivering such services, systematic steps must be undertaken in order to ensure optional utilization and fair allocation of resources. Strategies start prior to intensive care units (ICU) admission by the proper selection of patients who are likely to benefit from ICU. Less resource-demanding alternatives, such as intermediate care units, should be used for low-risk patients. Do-not-resuscitate status in patients with no meaningful chance of recovery will prevent futile admissions to ICUs. Measures known to improve the efficiency of care in the ICU must be implemented, including hiring full-time qualified intensivists, switching open units to closed ones and the introduction of certain evidence-base driven management protocols. On discharge, the intermediate care units again play a role as less expensive alternative transitional area for patients who are not stable enough to go to general ward. Measures to reduce re-admissions to ICU must also be implemented. Improving ICU resource utilization requires teamwork not only the intensivists but also the administrators and other health care providers.