Cost-Effectiveness and Budget Impact Analysis of the Implementation of Differentiated Service Delivery Models for HIV Treatment in Mozambique: a Modelling Study.

INTRODUCTION: In 2018, the Mozambique Ministry of Health launched guidelines for implementing differentiated service delivery models (DSDMs) to optimize HIV service delivery, improve retention in care, and ultimately reduce HIV-associated mortality. The models were fast-track, 3-month antiretrovirals dispensing, community antiretroviral therapy groups, adherence clubs, family approach and three one-stop shop models: adolescent-friendly health services, maternal and child health, and tuberculosis. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis and budget impact analysis to compare these models to conventional services. METHODS: We constructed a decision tree model based on the percentage of enrolment in each model and the probability of the outcome (12-month retention in treatment) for each year of the study period-three for the cost-effectiveness analysis (2019-2021) and three for the budget impact analysis (2022-2024). Costs for these analyses were primarily estimated per client-year from the health system perspective. A secondary cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from the societal perspective. Budget impact analysis costs included antiretrovirals, laboratory tests and service provision interactions. Cost-effectiveness analysis additionally included start-up, training and clients' opportunity costs. Effectiveness was estimated using an uncontrolled interrupted time series analysis comparing the outcome before and after the implementation of the differentiated models. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify drivers of uncertainty. RESULTS: After implementation of the DSDMs, there was a mean increase of 14.9 percentage points (95% CI: 12.2, 17.8) in 12-month retention, from 47.6% (95% CI, 44.9-50.2) to 62.5% (95% CI, 60.9-64.1). The mean cost difference comparing DSDMs and conventional care was US$ -6 million (173,391,277 vs. 179,461,668) and -32.5 million (394,705,618 vs. 433,232,289) from the health system and the societal perspective, respectively. Therefore, DSDMs dominated conventional care. Results were most sensitive to conventional care interaction costs in the one-way sensitivity analysis. For a population of 1.5 million, the base-case 3-year financial costs associated with the DSDMs was US$550 million, compared with US$564 million for conventional care. CONCLUSIONS: DSDMs were less expensive and more effective in retaining clients 12 months after antiretroviral therapy initiation and were estimated to save approximately US$14 million for the health system from 2022 to 2024.

Effects of primary healthcare reform on routine health information systems (RHISs): a mixed-methods study in Lesotho.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The Ministry of Health of Lesotho and Partners In Health piloted the Lesotho National Primary Health Care Reform (LPHCR) from July 2014 to June 2017 to improve quality and quantity of service delivery and enhance health system management. This initiative included improvement of routine health information systems (RHISs) to map disease burden and reinforce data utilisation for clinical quality improvement. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The WHO Data Quality Assurance framework's core indicators were used to compare the completeness of health data before versus after the LPHCR in 60 health centres and 6 hospitals across four districts. To examine change in data completeness, we conducted an interrupted time series analysis using multivariable logistic mixed-effects regression. Additionally, we conducted 25 key informant interviews with healthcare workers (HCWs) at the different levels of Lesotho's health system, following a purposive sampling approach. Interviews were analysed using deductive coding based on the Performance of Routine Information System Management framework, which inspected organisational, technical and behavioural factors influencing RHIS processes and outputs associated with the LPHCR. RESULTS: In multivariable analyses, trends in monthly data completion rate were higher after versus before the LPHCR for: documenting first antenatal care visit (adjusted OR (AOR): 1.24, 95% CI: 1.14 to 1.36) and institutional delivery (AOR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.32). When discussing processes, HCWs highlighted the value of establishing clear roles and responsibilities in reporting under a new organisational structure, improved community programmes among district health management teams, and enhanced data sharing and monitoring by districts. CONCLUSION: The Ministry of Health had a strong data completion rate pre-LPHCR, which was sustained throughout the LPHCR despite increased service utilisation. The data completion rate was optimised through improved behavioural, technical and organisational factors introduced as part of the LPHCR.

State Policy Removing the Personal Belief Exemption for Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) School Immunization Requirement, Washington State, 2014-2022.

Objectives. To assess the impact of Washington State's 2019 Engrossed House Bill (EHB) 1638-which removed measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) personal belief exemptions-on MMR vaccine series completion and exemption rates in K-12 students. Methods. We used interrupted time-series analyses to examine changes in MMR vaccine series completion rates before and after EHB 1638 was passed and the χ2 test for differences in exemption rates. Results. EHB 1638 implementation was associated with a 5.4% relative increase in kindergarten MMR vaccine series completion rates (95% confidence interval = 3.8%, 7.1%; P ≤ .001), and results were similar with Oregon as a control state (no change observed in Oregon; P = .68). MMR exemptions overall decreased 41% (from 3.1% in 2018-2019 to 1.8% in 2019-2020; P ≤ .001), and religious exemptions increased 367% (from 0.3% to 1.4%; P ≤ .001). Conclusions. EHB 1638 was associated with an increase in MMR vaccine series completion rates and a decrease in any MMR exemption. However, effects were partially offset by an increase in religious exemption rates. Public Health Implications. Removal of personal belief exemptions for the MMR immunization requirement only may be an effective approach to increase MMR vaccine coverage rates statewide and among underimmunized communities. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(7):795-804. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307285).

Scrutinizing human resources for health availability and distribution in Mozambique between 2016 and 2020: a subnational descriptive longitudinal study.

INTRODUCTION: Overall, resilient health systems build upon sufficient, qualified, well-distributed, and motivated health workers; however, this precious resource is limited in numbers to meet people's demands, particularly in LMICs. Understanding the subnational distribution of health workers from different lens is critical to ensure quality healthcare and improving health outcomes. METHODS: Using data from Health Personnel Information System, facility-level Service Availability and Readiness Assessment, and other sources, we performed a district-level longitudinal analysis to assess health workforce density and the ratio of male to female health workers between January 2016 and June 2020 across all districts in Mozambique. RESULTS: 22 011 health workers were sampled, of whom 10 405 (47.3%) were male. The average age was 35 years (SD: 9.4). Physicians (1025, 4.7%), maternal and child health nurses (4808, 21.8%), and nurses (6402, 29.1%) represented about 55% of the sample. In January 2016, the average district-level workforce density was 75.8 per 100 000 population (95% CI 65.9, 87.1), and was increasing at an annual rate of 8.0% (95% CI 6.00, 9.00) through January 2018. The annual growth rate declined to 3.0% (95% CI 2.00, 4.00) after January 2018. Two provinces, Maputo City and Maputo Province, with 268.3 (95% CI 186.10, 387.00) and 104.6 (95% CI 84.20, 130.00) health workers per 100 000 population, respectively, had the highest workforce density at baseline (2016). There were 3122 community health workers (CHW), of whom 72.8% were male, in January 2016. The average number of CHWs per 10 000 population was 1.33 (95% CI 1.11, 1.59) in 2016 and increased by 18% annually between January 2016 and January 2018. This trend reduced to 11% (95% CI 0.00, 13.00) after January 2018. The sex ratio was twice as high for all provinces in the central and northern regions relative to Maputo Province. Maputo City (OR: 0.34; 95% CI 0.32, 0.34) and Maputo Province (OR: 0.56; 95% CI 0.49, 0.65) reported the lowest sex ratio at the baseline. Encouragingly, important sex ratio improvements were observed after January 2018, particularly in the northern and central regions. CONCLUSION: Mozambique made substantial progress in health workers' availability during the study period; however, with a critical slowdown after 2018. Despite the progress, meaningful shortages and distribution disparities persist.

Trends and Determinants of Full Immunisation among Children Aged 12-23 Months: Analysis of Pooled Data from Mozambican Household Surveys between 1997 and 2015.

The 1974 Expanded Program on Immunisation has saved millions of children worldwide by promoting full immunisation coverage (FIC). However, forty years later, many sub-Saharan African countries remain well below its target of 90% FIC. This study analysed the level, trends and determinants of FIC in 4322 Mozambican children aged 12-23 months from pooled data from four national surveys between 1997 and 2015. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression models were performed to analyse the factors associated with full immunisation coverage. Overall, the coverage of fully immunised children increased from 47.9% in 1997 to 66.5% in 2015, corresponding to a 1.8% yearly increase. The needed FIC growth rate post-2015 was 4.3 times higher. Increased maternal education and a higher household wealth index were associated with higher odds of FIS. Furthermore, attending antenatal care (ANC) visits, institutional delivery and living in southern provinces were also associated with increased odds of FIS. Between 1997 and 2015, FIC among 12-23-month-old children made modest annual gains but remained well below international targets. Factors related to access to healthcare, educational level, socioeconomic status and geographical location were associated with improved FIC. Targeted interventions to expand these factors will improve immunisation coverage among Mozambican children.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of HIV counselling and testing modalities in Southern Mozambique.

OBJECTIVE: Despite the high HIV associated burden, Mozambique lacks data on HIV counselling and testing (HCT) costs. To help guide national HIV/AIDS programs, we estimated the cost per test for voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) from the patient's perspective and the costs per person tested and per HIV-positive individual linked to care to the healthcare provider for VCT, provider-initiated counselling and testing (PICT) and home-based testing (HBT). We also assessed the cost-effectiveness of these strategies for linking patients to care. METHODS: Data from a cohort study conducted in the Manhiça District were used to derive costs and linkage-to-care outcomes of the three HCT strategies. A decision tree was used to model HCT costs according to the likelihood of HCT linking individuals to care and to obtain the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of PICT and HBT with VCT as the comparator. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess robustness of base-case findings. FINDINGS: Based on costs and valuations in 2015, average and median VCT costs to the patient per individual tested were US$1.34 and US$1.08, respectively. Costs per individual tested were greatest for HBT (US$11.07), followed by VCT (US$7.79), and PICT (US$7.14). The costs per HIV-positive individual linked to care followed a similar trend. PICT was not cost-effective in comparison with VCT at a willingness-to-accept threshold of US$4.53, but only marginally given a corresponding base-case ICER of US$4.15, while HBT was dominated, with higher costs and lower impact than VCT. Base-case results for the comparison between PICT and VCT presented great uncertainty, whereas findings for HBT were robust. CONCLUSION: PICT and VCT are likely equally cost-effective in Manhiça. We recommend that VCT be offered as the predominant HCT strategy in Mozambique, but expansion of PICT could be considered in limited-resource areas. HBT without facilitated linkage or reduced costs is unlikely to be cost-effective.

Challenges and facilitators to evidence-based decision-making for maternal and child health in Mozambique: district, municipal and national case studies.

BACKGROUND: The need for evidence-based decision-making in the health sector is well understood in the global health community. Yet, gaps persist between the availability of evidence and the use of that evidence. Most research on evidence-based decision-making has been carried out in higher-income countries, and most studies look at policy-making rather than decision-making more broadly. We conducted this study to address these gaps and to identify challenges and facilitators to evidence-based decision-making in Maternal, Newborn and Child Health and Nutrition (MNCH&N) at the municipality, district, and national levels in Mozambique. METHODS: We used a case study design to capture the experiences of decision-makers and analysts (n = 24) who participated in evidence-based decision-making processes related to health policies and interventions to improve MNCH&N in diverse decision-making contexts (district, municipality, and national levels) in 2014-2017, in Mozambique. We examined six case studies, at the national level, in Maputo City and in two districts of Sofala Province and two of Zambézia Province, using individual in-depth interviews with key informants and a document review, for three weeks, in July 2018. RESULTS: Our analysis highlighted various challenges for evidence-based decision-making for MNCH&N, at national, district, and municipality levels in Mozambique, including limited demand for evidence, limited capacity to use evidence, and lack of trust in the available evidence. By contrast, access to evidence, and availability of evidence were viewed positively and seen as potential facilitators. Organizational capacity for the demand and use of evidence appears to be the greatest challenge; while individual capacity is also a barrier. CONCLUSION: Evidence-based decision-making requires that actors have access to evidence and are empowered to act on that evidence. This, in turn, requires alignment between those who collect data, those who analyze and interpret data, and those who make and implement decisions. Investments in individual, organizational, and systems capacity to use evidence are needed to foster practices of evidence-based decision-making for improved maternal and child health in Mozambique.

Determinants of geographical inequalities for DTP3 vaccine coverage in sub-Saharan Africa.

Childhood immunization is one of the most effective health interventions, making it a key indicator of progress towards universal health coverage. In the last decade, improvements in coverage have been made globally, however, slow progress has been documented in sub-Saharan Africa with considerable subnational variations. We explore potential drivers of equitable immunization services based on subnational DTP3 coverage estimates. Using vaccine coverage at the 5 by 5 km area from 2000 to 2016, we quantify inequality using three measures. We assess the shortfall inequality which is the average deviation across subnational units from that with the highest coverage for each country. Secondly we estimate the threshold index, the proportion of children below a globally set subnational coverage target, and lastly, a Gini coefficient representing the within-country distribution of coverage. We use time series analyses to quantify associations with immunization expenditures controlling for country socio-economic and population characteristics. Development assistance, maternal education and governance were associated with reductions in inequality. Furthermore, high quality governance was associated with a stronger relationship between development assistance and reductions in inequality. Results from this analysis also indicate that countries with the lowest coverage suffer the highest inequalities. We highlight growing inequalities among countries which have met national coverage targets such as South Africa and Kenya. In 2016, values for the shortfall inequality ranged from 1% to 43%, the threshold index from 0% to 100% and Gini coefficient from 0.01 to 0.37. Burundi, Comoros, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, Rwanda, and Sao Tome and Principe had the least shortfall inequality (<5%) while Angola, Ethiopia and Nigeria had values greater than 40%. A similar picture was noted for the other dimensions of inequality among these particular countries. Immunization program investments offer promise in addressing inequality, however, domestic mechanisms for resource implementation and accountability should be strengthened to maximize gains in coverage.

Effect of donor funding for immunization from Gavi and other development assistance channels on vaccine coverage: Evidence from 120 low and middle income recipient countries.

Donor assistance for immunization has remained resilient with increased resource mobilization efforts in recent years to achieve current global coverage targets. As a result, more countries continue to introduce new vaccines while optimizing coverage for traditional vaccines. Gavi the Vaccine Alliance has been at the forefront of immunization support specifically among low and middle income countries, alongside other channels of development assistance which continue to play a vital role in immunization. Using available recipient country level data from 1996 to 2016, we estimate the impact of Gavi support for vaccines and health systems strengthening on vaccine coverage for 3 dose DPT, 3 dose pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, 3 dose pentavalent, 2 dose measles and 2 dose rotavirus vaccines. We investigate the same effects of total aid for immunization from other channels of development assistance. Standard time series cross sectional analysis methods are applied to investigate the effects of vaccine support controlling for country income, governance and population, with robustness tests implemented using different model specifications. Double counting was eliminated and results are presented in real 2017 US dollars. We found significant positive effects of aid particularly among the newer vaccines. Using 2016 country specific disbursements and coverage levels as baseline, we estimated that among recipient countries below the universal target, additional DAH per capita required to reach 90%, ranged from 0.01USD to 4.33USD for PCV, 0.03USD to 9.06USD for pentavalent vaccine and 0.01USD to 2.57USD for rotavirus vaccine. The estimated number of children vaccinated through 2016, attributable to Gavi support totaled 46.6million, 75.2million and 12.3million for PCV, pentavalent and rotavirus vaccines respectively. Our analysis suggests substantial success both from a historical and prospective perspective in the implementation of global immunization initiatives thus far. As more vaccines are rolled out and countries transition from donor aid, strategies for fiscal sustainability and efficiency need to be strengthened in order to achieve universal immunization coverage.

Implementation strategy and cost of Mozambique's HPV vaccine demonstration project.

BACKGROUND: Cost is an important determinant of health program implementation. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the implementation strategy of Mozambique's school-based HPV vaccine demonstration project. We sought to estimate the total costs for the program, cost per fully immunized girl (FIG), and compute projections for the total cost of implementing a similar national level vaccination program. METHODS: We collected primary data through document review, participatory observation, and key informant interviews at all levels of the national health system and Ministry of Education. We used a combination of micro-costing methods-identification and measurement of resource quantities and valuation by application of unit costs, and gross costing-for consideration of resource bundles as they apply to the number of vaccinated girls. We extrapolated the cost per FIG to the HPV-vaccine-eligible population of Mozambique, to demonstrate the projected total annual cost for two scenarios of a similarly executed HPV vaccine program. RESULTS: The total cost of the Mozambique HPV vaccine demonstration project was $523,602. The mean cost per FIG was $72 (Credibility Intervals (CI): $62 - $83) in year one, $38 (CI: $37 - $40) in year two, and $54 CI: $49 - $61) for years one and two. The mean cost per FIG with the third HPV vaccine dose excluded from consideration was $60 (CI: $50 - $72) in year one, $38 (CI: $31 - $46) in year two, and $48 (CI: $42 - $55) for years one and two. The mean cost per FIG when only one HPV vaccine dose is considered was $30 (CI: $27 - $33)) in year one, $19 (CI: $15-$23) in year two, and $24 (CI: $22-$27) for both years. The projected annual cost of a two-and one-dose vaccine program targeting all 10-year-old girls in the country was $18.2 m (CI: $15.9 m - $20.7 m) and $9 m (CI: $8 m - $10 m) respectively. CONCLUSION: National adaptation and scale-up of Mozambique's school-based HPV vaccine strategy may result in substantial costs depending on dosing. For sustainability, stakeholders will need to negotiate vaccine price and achieve higher efficiency in startup activities and demand creation.

External Quality Assessment Programme for Early Infant Diagnosis of HIV-1, Mozambique, 2011-2014.

This study evaluated a National External Quality Scheme Program for early infant diagnosis of HIV. Fourteen laboratory technicians participated and nine testing panel cycles were sent between 2011 and 2014. The response rate was 100% for the first eight panels, and the number of technicians with a test score of 100% increased during the first three panels. Based on the evaluations of the technicians, the quality of testing for early infant diagnosis of HIV improved over time in the laboratories.

Tracking donor funding towards achieving the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) goals: A landscape analysis (1990-2016).

Efforts driving universal coverage have recently been strengthened through implementation of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) where cost estimates for immunization support were developed totaling US$40 billion of donor assistance by 2020. In addition to resource mobilization, there has been an increasing focus on improving both vaccine access and delivery systems. We track donor assistance for immunization by funding objective and channel from 1990 to 2016, and illustrate projections through 2020 to inform progress of the GVAP. Using available data from development agencies supporting immunization, we categorize funding by vaccine and quantify support for systems strengthening. We split time into four periods including the post universal childhood immunization era (1990-1999) and Gavi's three funding phases between 2000 and 2015, during which annualized funding changes are estimated. Lastly, we perform a linear extrapolation through 2020 to predict the success of stipulated resource mobilization targets. Double counting was eliminated and results presented in real 2017 US dollars. Over the last 27 years, funding for immunization increased by 10.5% annually, with non-Gavi funding increasing by 7.1% and Gavi funding by 23.6% in the last 17 years. Gavi disbursements targeting vaccines and health system improvements increased uniformly at 15%, compared to 22.5% for vaccines and 11.7% for system strengthening from non-Gavi channels. Funding fluctuated for non-Gavi channels with disbursements declining before 2000 and during Gavi funding phase II, while Gavi disbursements continued to grow relative the previous phase. New and underused vaccines were prioritized by Gavi whereas non-Gavi channels focused on elimination efforts. Projected funding targets were estimated to be on track for Gavi contrary to non-Gavi support which was estimated to remain 40% below the stipulated target. Renewed assessments for funding requirements need to be undertaken, while strengthening existing resource efficiencies in order to achieve current global universal coverage targets.

Small area estimation of under-5 mortality in Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia using spatially misaligned data.

BACKGROUND: The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) is an important metric of child health and survival. Country-level estimates of U5MR are readily available, but efforts to estimate U5MR subnationally have been limited, in part, due to spatial misalignment of available data sources (e.g., use of different administrative levels, or as a result of historical boundary changes). METHODS: We analyzed all available complete and summary birth history data in surveys and censuses in six countries (Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia) at the finest geographic level available in each data source. We then developed small area estimation models capable of incorporating spatially misaligned data. These small area estimation models were applied to the birth history data in order to estimate trends in U5MR from 1980 to 2015 at the second administrative level in Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia and at the third administrative level in Bangladesh. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in U5MR in all six countries: there was more than a two-fold difference in U5MR between the area with the highest rate and the area with the lowest rate in every country. All areas in all countries experienced declines in U5MR between 1980 and 2015, but the degree varied both within and between countries. In Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, and Zambia we found areas with U5MRs in 2015 that were higher than in other parts of the same country in 1980. Comparing subnational U5MR to country-level targets for the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), we find that 12.8% of areas in Bangladesh did not meet the country-level target, although the country as whole did. A minority of areas in Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia met the country-level MDG targets while these countries as a whole did not. CONCLUSIONS: Subnational estimates of U5MR reveal significant within-country variation. These estimates could be used for identifying high-need areas and positive deviants, tracking trends in geographic inequalities, and evaluating progress towards international development targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals.

Progress in Mozambique: Changes in the availability, use, and quality of emergency obstetric and newborn care between 2007 and 2012.

INTRODUCTION: Maternal mortality in Mozambique has not declined significantly in the last 10-15 years, plateauing around 480 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. Good quality antenatal care and routine and emergency intrapartum care are critical to reducing preventable maternal and newborn deaths. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We compare the findings from two national cross-sectional facility-based assessments conducted in 2007 and 2012. Both were designed to measure the availability, use and quality of emergency obstetric and neonatal care. Indicators for monitoring emergency obstetric care were used as were descriptive statistics. RESULTS: The availability of facilities providing the full range of obstetric life-saving procedures (signal functions) decreased. However, an expansion in the provision of individual signal functions was highly visible in health centers and health posts, but in hospitals, performance was less satisfactory, with proportionally fewer hospitals providing assisted vaginal delivery, obstetric surgery and blood transfusions. All other key indicators showed signs of improvements: the institutional delivery rate, the cesarean delivery rate, met need for emergency obstetric care (EmOC), institutional stillbirth and early neonatal death rates, and cause-specific case fatality rates (CFRs). CFRs for most major obstetric complications declined between 17% and 69%. The contribution of direct causes to maternal deaths decreased while the proportion of indirect causes doubled during the five-year interval. CONCLUSIONS: The indicator of EmOC service availability, often used for planning and developing EmONC networks, requires close examination. The standard definition can mask programmatic weaknesses and thus, fails to inform decision makers of what to target. In this case, the decline in the use of assisted vaginal delivery explained much of the difference in this indicator between the two surveys, as did faltering hospital performance. Despite this backsliding, many signs of improvement were also observed in this 5-year period, but indicator levels continue below recommended thresholds. The quality of intrapartum care and the adverse consequences from infectious diseases during pregnancy point to priority areas for programmatic improvement.

The 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease outbreak and primary healthcare delivery in Liberia: Time-series analyses for 2010-2016.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to estimate the immediate and lasting effects of the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak on public-sector primary healthcare delivery in Liberia using 7 years of comprehensive routine health information system data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed 10 key primary healthcare indicators before, during, and after the EVD outbreak using 31,836 facility-month service outputs from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2016 across a census of 379 public-sector health facilities in Liberia (excluding Montserrado County). All indicators had statistically significant decreases during the first 4 months of the EVD outbreak, with all indicators having their lowest raw mean outputs in August 2014. Decreases in outputs comparing the end of the initial EVD period (September 2014) to May 2014 (pre-EVD) ranged in magnitude from a 67.3% decrease in measles vaccinations (95% CI: -77.9%, -56.8%, p < 0.001) and a 61.4% decrease in artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) treatments for malaria (95% CI: -69.0%, -53.8%, p < 0.001) to a 35.2% decrease in first antenatal care (ANC) visits (95% CI: -45.8%, -24.7%, p < 0.001) and a 38.5% decrease in medroxyprogesterone acetate doses (95% CI: -47.6%, -29.5%, p < 0.001). Following the nadir of system outputs in August 2014, all indicators showed statistically significant increases from October 2014 to December 2014. All indicators had significant positive trends during the post-EVD period, with every system output exceeding pre-Ebola forecasted trends for 3 consecutive months by November 2016. Health system outputs lost during and after the EVD outbreak were large and sustained for most indicators. Prior to exceeding pre-EVD forecasted trends for 3 months, we estimate statistically significant cumulative losses of -776,110 clinic visits (95% CI: -1,480,896, -101,357, p = 0.030); -24,449 bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccinations (95% CI: -45,947, -2,020, p = 0.032); -9,129 measles vaccinations (95% CI: -12,312, -5,659, p < 0.001); -17,191 postnatal care (PNC) visits within 6 weeks of birth (95% CI: -28,344, -5,775, p = 0.002); and -101,857 ACT malaria treatments (95% CI: -205,839, -2,139, p = 0.044) due to the EVD outbreak. Other outputs showed statistically significant cumulative losses only through December 2014, including losses of -12,941 first pentavalent vaccinations (95% CI: -20,309, -5,527, p = 0.002); -5,122 institutional births (95% CI: -8,767, -1,234, p = 0.003); and -45,024 acute respiratory infections treated (95% CI: -66,185, -24,019, p < 0.001). Compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, medroxyprogesterone acetate doses and first ANC visits did not show statistically significant net losses. ACT treatment for malaria was the only indicator with an estimated net increase in system outputs through December 2016, showing an excess of +78,583 outputs (95% CI: -309,417, +450,661, p = 0.634) compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, although this increase was not statistically significant. However, comparing December 2013 to December 2017, ACT malaria cases have increased 49.2% (95% CI: 33.9%, 64.5%, p < 0.001). Compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, there remains a statistically significant loss of -15,144 PNC visits within 6 weeks (95% CI: -29,453, -787, p = 0.040) through December 2016. CONCLUSIONS: The Liberian public-sector primary healthcare system has made strides towards recovery from the 2014-2015 EVD outbreak. All primary healthcare indicators tracked have recovered to pre-EVD levels as of November 2016. Yet, for most indicators, it took more than 1 year to recover to pre-EVD levels. During this time, large losses of essential primary healthcare services occurred compared to what would have been expected had the EVD outbreak not occurred. The disruption of malaria case management during the EVD outbreak may have resulted in increased malaria cases. Large and sustained investments in public-sector primary care health system strengthening are urgently needed for EVD-affected countries.

Health and socio-demographic profile of women of reproductive age in rural communities of southern Mozambique.

Reliable statistics on maternal morbidity and mortality are scarce in low and middle-income countries, especially in rural areas. This is the case in Mozambique where many births happen at home. Furthermore, a sizeable number of facility births have inadequate registration. Such information is crucial for developing effective national and global health policies for maternal and child health. The aim of this study was to generate reliable baseline socio-demographic information on women of reproductive age as well as to establish a demographic surveillance platform to support the planning and implementation of the Community Level Intervention for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) study, a cluster randomized controlled trial. This study represents a census of all women of reproductive age (12-49 years) in twelve rural communities in Maputo and Gaza provinces of Mozambique. The data were collected through electronic forms implemented in Open Data Kit (ODK) (an app for android based tablets) and household and individual characteristics. Verbal autopsies were conducted on all reported maternal deaths to determine the underlying cause of death. Between March and October 2014, 50,493 households and 80,483 women of reproductive age (mean age 26.9 years) were surveyed. A total of 14,617 pregnancies were reported in the twelve months prior to the census, resulting in 9,029 completed pregnancies. Of completed pregnancies, 8,796 resulted in live births, 466 resulted in stillbirths and 288 resulted in miscarriages. The remaining pregnancies had not yet been completed during the time of the survey (5,588 pregnancies). The age specific fertility indicates that highest rate (188 live births per 1,000 women) occurs in the age 20-24 years old. The estimated stillbirth rate was 50.3/1,000 live and stillbirths; neonatal mortality rate was 13.3/1,000 live births and maternal mortality ratio was 204.6/100,000 live births. The most common direct cause of maternal death was eclampsia and tuberculosis was the most common indirect cause of death. This study found that fertility rate is high at age 20-24 years old. Pregnancy in the advanced age (>35 years of age) in this study was associated with higher poor outcomes such as miscarriage and stillbirth. The study also found high stillbirth rate indicating a need for increased attention to maternal health in southern Mozambique. Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS are prominent indirect causes of maternal death, while eclampsia represents the number one direct obstetric cause of maternal deaths in these communities. Additional efforts to promote safe motherhood and improve child survival are crucial in these communities.

Assessment of linkages from HIV testing to enrolment and retention in HIV care in Central Mozambique.

INTRODUCTION: Effectiveness of the rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) throughout sub-Saharan Africa is highly dependent on adequate enrolment and retention in HIV care. However, the measurement of both has been challenging in these settings. This study aimed to assess enrolment and retention in HIV care (pre-ART and ART) among HIV-positive adults in Central Mozambique, including identification of barriers and facilitators. METHODS: We assessed linkages to and retention in HIV care using a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach in six districts of Manica and Sofala provinces. We analyzed routine district and health facility monthly reports and HIV care registries from April 2012 to March 2013 and used single imputation and trimmed means to adjust for missing values. In eight health facilities in the same districts and period, we assessed retention in HIV care among 795 randomly selected adult patient charts (15 years and older). We also conducted 25 focus group discussions and 53 in-depth interviews with HIV-positive adults, healthcare providers and community members to identify facilitators and barriers to enrolment and retention in HIV care. RESULTS: Overall, 46% of the monthly HIV testing reports expected at the district level were missing, compared to 6.4% of the pre-ART registry reports. After adjustment for missing values, we estimated that the aggregate numbers of adults registered in pre-ART was 75% of the number of persons tested HIV-positive in the six districts. In the eight health facilities, 40% of the patient charts for adults enrolled in pre-ART and 44% in ART were missing. Of those on ART for whom charts were found, retention in treatment within 90 and 60 days prior to the study team visit was 34 and 25%, respectively. Combining these multiple data sources, the overall estimated retention was 18% in our sample. Individual-level factors were perceived to be key influences to enrolment in HIV care, while health facility and structural-level factors were perceived to be key influences of retention. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to increase linkages to and retention in HIV care should address individual, health facility, and structural-level factors in Central Mozambique. However, their outcomes cannot be reliably assessed without improving the quality of routine health information systems.

Assessment of the safety of antimalarial drug use during early pregnancy (ASAP): protocol for a multicenter prospective cohort study in Burkina Faso, Kenya and Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: A major unresolved safety concern for malaria case management is the use of artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) in the first trimester of pregnancy. There is a need for human data to inform policy makers and treatment guidelines on the safety of artemisinin combination therapies (ACT) when used during early pregnancy. METHODS: The overall goal of this paper is to describe the methods and implementation of a study aimed at developing surveillance systems for identifying exposures to antimalarials during early pregnancy and for monitoring pregnancy outcomes using health and demographic surveillance platforms. This was a multi-center prospective observational cohort study involving women at health and demographic surveillance sites in three countries in Africa: Burkina Faso, Kenya and Mozambique [(ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01232530)]. The study was designed to identify pregnant women with artemisinin exposure in the first trimester and compare them to: 1) pregnant women without malaria, 2) pregnant women treated for malaria, but exposed to other antimalarials, and 3) pregnant women with malaria and treated with artemisinins in the 2nd or 3rd trimesters from the same settings. Pregnant women were recruited through community-based surveys and attendance at health facilities, including antenatal care clinics and followed until delivery. Data from the three sites will be pooled for analysis at the end of the study. Results are forthcoming. DISCUSSION: Despite few limitations, the methods described here are relevant to the development of sustainable pharmacovigilance systems for drugs used by pregnant women in the tropics using health and demographic surveillance sites to prospectively ascertain drug safety in early pregnancy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01232530.