Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis.

BACKGROUND: The USA struggled in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but not all states struggled equally. Identifying the factors associated with cross-state variation in infection and mortality rates could help to improve responses to this and future pandemics. We sought to answer five key policy-relevant questions regarding the following: 1) what roles social, economic, and racial inequities had in interstate variation in COVID-19 outcomes; 2) whether states with greater health-care and public health capacity had better outcomes; 3) how politics influenced the results; 4) whether states that imposed more policy mandates and sustained them longer had better outcomes; and 5) whether there were trade-offs between a state having fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections and total COVID-19 deaths and its economic and educational outcomes. METHODS: Data disaggregated by US state were extracted from public databases, including COVID-19 infection and mortality estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) COVID-19 database; Bureau of Economic Analysis data on state gross domestic product (GDP); Federal Reserve economic data on employment rates; National Center for Education Statistics data on student standardised test scores; and US Census Bureau data on race and ethnicity by state. We standardised infection rates for population density and death rates for age and the prevalence of major comorbidities to facilitate comparison of states' successes in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. We regressed these health outcomes on prepandemic state characteristics (such as educational attainment and health spending per capita), policies adopted by states during the pandemic (such as mask mandates and business closures), and population-level behavioural responses (such as vaccine coverage and mobility). We explored potential mechanisms connecting state-level factors to individual-level behaviours using linear regression. We quantified reductions in state GDP, employment, and student test scores during the pandemic to identify policy and behavioural responses associated with these outcomes and to assess trade-offs between these outcomes and COVID-19 outcomes. Significance was defined as p<0·05. FINDINGS: Standardised cumulative COVID-19 death rates for the period from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022 varied across the USA (national rate 372 deaths per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 364-379]), with the lowest standardised rates in Hawaii (147 deaths per 100 000 [127-196]) and New Hampshire (215 per 100 000 [183-271]) and the highest in Arizona (581 per 100 000 [509-672]) and Washington, DC (526 per 100 000 [425-631]). A lower poverty rate, higher mean number of years of education, and a greater proportion of people expressing interpersonal trust were statistically associated with lower infection and death rates, and states where larger percentages of the population identify as Black (non-Hispanic) or Hispanic were associated with higher cumulative death rates. Access to quality health care (measured by the IHME's Healthcare Access and Quality Index) was associated with fewer total COVID-19 deaths and SARS-CoV-2 infections, but higher public health spending and more public health personnel per capita were not, at the state level. The political affiliation of the state governor was not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 death rates, but worse COVID-19 outcomes were associated with the proportion of a state's voters who voted for the 2020 Republican presidential candidate. State governments' uses of protective mandates were associated with lower infection rates, as were mask use, lower mobility, and higher vaccination rate, while vaccination rates were associated with lower death rates. State GDP and student reading test scores were not associated with state COVD-19 policy responses, infection rates, or death rates. Employment, however, had a statistically significant relationship with restaurant closures and greater infections and deaths: on average, 1574 (95% UI 884-7107) additional infections per 10 000 population were associated in states with a one percentage point increase in employment rate. Several policy mandates and protective behaviours were associated with lower fourth-grade mathematics test scores, but our study results did not find a link to state-level estimates of school closures. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 magnified the polarisation and persistent social, economic, and racial inequities that already existed across US society, but the next pandemic threat need not do the same. US states that mitigated those structural inequalities, deployed science-based interventions such as vaccination and targeted vaccine mandates, and promoted their adoption across society were able to match the best-performing nations in minimising COVID-19 death rates. These findings could contribute to the design and targeting of clinical and policy interventions to facilitate better health outcomes in future crises. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, J and E Nordstrom, and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Hospital Costs of Injection Drug Use in Florida.

People who inject drugs (PWID) experience significant injection-related infections (IRIs) at significant healthcare system cost. This study used and validated an algorithm based on the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, to estimate hospitalized PWID populations, assess the total statewide morbidity for IRIs among PWID, and calculate associated costs of care.

Assessment of Various Measurement Methods to Assess First Metatarsal Elevation in Hallux Rigidus.

BACKGROUND: While metatarsus primus elevatus (MPE) has been implicated in the development of hallux rigidus, previous studies have presented conflicting findings regarding the relationship between MPE and arthritis. This may be due to the variety of definitions for MPE and the radiographic measurement techniques that are used to assess it. Additionally, previous studies have only assessed elevation of the first metatarsal with respect to the floor or the second metatarsal, and not with respect to the proximal phalanx. The aim of this study was to examine the reliability of new radiographic measurements that consider the elevation of the first metatarsal in relation to the proximal phalanx, rather than in relation to the second metatarsal as previously described, to assess for MPE. In addition, we aimed to determine whether the elevation of the first metatarsal was significantly different in patients with hallux rigidus than in a control population. METHODS: A retrospective chart review was conducted from prospectively collected registry data at the investigators' institution to identify patients with hallux rigidus (n = 65). A size-matched control cohort of patients without evidence for first metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joint arthritis was identified (n = 65). Patients with a previous history of foot surgery, rheumatoid arthritis, or hallux valgus were excluded. Five blinded raters of varying levels of training, including 2 research assistants, 1 senior orthopedic resident, 1 foot and ankle fellowship-trained orthopedic surgeon, and 1 attending musculoskeletal fellowship-trained radiologist, evaluated 7 radiographic measurements for their reliability in assessing for MPE in hallux rigidus and control groups. Four of the 7 were newly designed measurements that include the relationship of the first MTP joint. Inter- and intrarater reliability were calculated using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and categorized by Landis and Koch reliability thresholds. The measurements between the hallux rigidus and control populations were compared using an independent t test. RESULTS: Six of the 7 radiographic measurements were found to have substantial to almost perfect interrater reliability (ICC, 0.800-0.953) between all levels of training, except for the proximal phalanx-first metatarsal angle, which showed moderate reliability (ICC, 0.527). Substantial to almost perfect intrarater reliability (ICC, 0.710-0.982) was demonstrated by the measurements performed by research assistants. All 7 of the measurements taken by the musculoskeletal fellowship-trained radiologist demonstrated significant differences in first metatarsal elevation between the hallux rigidus and control populations, with the hallux rigidus group showing increased elevation (P < .001-.019). CONCLUSION: This study confirmed the reliability of 7 radiographic measurements used to assess for MPE, including 3 previously established and 4 newly described measurements. Observers across all levels of training were able to demonstrate reliable measurements. In addition, the measurements were used to show that patients with hallux rigidus were more likely to have MPE compared with patients without radiographic evidence for first MTP arthritis. These measurements could be used in future work to examine how the presence of MPE relates to the etiology and progression of hallux rigidus, and how it affects the results of operative treatment. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, retrospective comparative study.

Accelerated Discharge Protocol for Posterior Spinal Fusion Patients With Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Decreases Hospital Postoperative Charges 22.

STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective study of consecutive patients. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine implementing an accelerated protocol could decrease our average hospital stay and what impact this had on postoperative pain management. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: To our knowledge, no prior studies have reviewed the effect of an accelerated discharge protocol on postoperative pain control for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) following posterior spinal fusion. METHODS: This is a retrospective review of all consecutive patients undergoing posterior spinal fusion (PSF) for AIS before (June 1, 2008-May 31, 2013 = traditional protocol) and after (June 1, 2013-October 22, 2014 = accelerated protocol) protocol implementation. Subjective response to the FACES Pain Intensity scale was collected for each postoperative day while in the hospital by the nursing staff. RESULTS: There were 194 patients in the traditional pathway and 90 patients in the accelerated pathway. No significant differences in age at surgery, sex, or number of levels fused were present between the groups. Patients managed under the accelerated discharge had an average hospital stay of 3.7 days compared with 5.0 days for the traditional discharge (P < 0.001). There was no increased incidence of wound complications between the two groups [3.6% (7/194) vs. 3.3% (3/90), P = 0.91] or readmission [1.5% (3/194) vs. 4.4% (4/90), P = 0.213]. Hospital charges for postoperative care were significantly less in the accelerated discharge group than in the traditional group ($18,360 vs. $23,640, P < 0.0001). This corresponded to a 22% ($5280/$23,640) decrease in postoperative hospital charges. Patients had a small (<1 point change on FACES pain scale) but statistically significant increase in pain on postoperative days 2, 3, and 4 (P = 0.0001, P = 0.0079, P = 0.0076). CONCLUSION: Accelerated discharge following PSF for AIS was associated with a 22% decrease in hospital charges in the postoperative period. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 4.

Under-5 mortality in 2851 Chinese counties, 1996-2012: a subnational assessment of achieving MDG 4 goals in China.

BACKGROUND: In the past two decades, the under-5 mortality rate in China has fallen substantially, but progress with regards to the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 at the subnational level has not been quantified. We aimed to estimate under-5 mortality rates in mainland China for the years 1970 to 2012. METHODS: We estimated the under-5 mortality rate for 31 provinces in mainland China between 1970 and 2013 with data from censuses, surveys, surveillance sites, and disease surveillance points. We estimated under-5 mortality rates for 2851 counties in China from 1996 to 2012 with the reported child mortality numbers from the Annual Report System on Maternal and Child Health. We used a small area mortality estimation model, spatiotemporal smoothing, and Gaussian process regression to synthesise data and generate consistent provincial and county-level estimates. We compared progress at the county level with what was expected on the basis of income and educational attainment using an econometric model. We computed Gini coefficients to study the inequality of under-5 mortality rates across counties. FINDINGS: In 2012, the lowest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was about five per 1000 livebirths, lower than in Canada, New Zealand, and the USA. The highest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was higher than that of Bangladesh. 29 provinces achieved a decrease in under-5 mortality rates twice as fast as the MDG 4 target rate; only two provinces will not achieve MDG 4 by 2015. Although some counties in China have under-5 mortality rates similar to those in the most developed nations in 2012, some have similar rates to those recorded in Burkina Faso and Cameroon. Despite wide differences, the inter-county Gini coefficient has been decreasing. Improvement in maternal education and the economic boom have contributed to the fall in child mortality; more than 60% of the counties in China had rates of decline in under-5 mortality rates significantly faster than expected. Fast reduction in under-5 mortality rates have been recorded not only in the Han population, the dominant ethnic majority in China, but also in the minority populations. All top ten minority groups in terms of population sizes have experienced annual reductions in under-5 mortality rates faster than the MDG 4 target at 4.4%. INTERPRETATION: The reduction of under-5 mortality rates in China at the country, provincial, and county level is an extraordinary success story. Reductions of under-5 mortality rates faster than 8.8% (twice MDG 4 pace) are possible. Extremely rapid declines seem to be related to public policy in addition to socioeconomic progress. Lessons from successful counties should prove valuable for China to intensify efforts for those with unacceptably high under-5 mortality rates. FUNDING: National "Twelfth Five-Year" Plan for Science and Technology Support, National Health and Family Planning Commission of The People's Republic of China, Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University, the National Institute on Aging, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Low-Risk Deliveries: A Comparison of Midwives, Family Physicians and Obstetricians.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the cost-effectiveness of in-hospital obstetrical care by obstetricians (OBs), family physicians (FPs) and midwives (MWs) for delivery of low-risk obstetrical patients. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analysis from the Ministry of Health perspective using a retrospective cohort study. The time horizon was from hospital admission of a low-risk pregnant patient to the discharge of the mother and infant. Costing data included human resource, intervention and hospital case-mix costs. Interventions measured were induction or augmentation of labour with oxytocin, epidural use, forceps or vacuum delivery and caesarean section. The outcome measured was avoidance of transfer to a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Model results were tested using various types of sensitivity analyses. FINDINGS: The mean maternal age by provider groups was 29.7 for OBs, 29.8 for FPs and 31.2 for MWs - a statistically higher mean for the MW group. The MW deliveries had lower costs and better outcomes than FPs and OBs. FPs also dominated OB.s The differences in cost per delivery were small, but slightly lower in MW ($5,102) and FP ($5,116) than in OB ($5,188). Avoidance of transfer to an NICU was highest for MW at 94.0% (95% CI: 91.0-97.0), compared with 90.2% for FP (95% CI: 88.2-92.2) and 89.6% for OB (95% CI: 88.6-90.6). The cost-effectiveness of the MW group is diminished by increases in compensation, and the cost-effectiveness of the FP group is sensitive to changes in intervention rates and costs. CONCLUSIONS: The MW strategy was the most cost-effective in this hospital setting. Given data limitations to further examine patient characteristics between groups, the overall conservative findings of this study support investments and better integration for MWs in the current system.

Left behind: widening disparities for males and females in US county life expectancy, 1985-2010.

BACKGROUND: The United States spends more than any other country on health care. The poor relative performance of the US compared to other high-income countries has attracted attention and raised questions about the performance of the US health system. An important dimension to poor national performance is the large disparities in life expectancy. METHODS: We applied a mixed effects Poisson statistical model and Gaussian Process Regression to estimate age-specific mortality rates for US counties from 1985 to 2010. We generated uncertainty distributions for life expectancy at each age using standard simulation methods. RESULTS: Female life expectancy in the United States increased from 78.0 years in 1985 to 80.9 years in 2010, while male life expectancy increased from 71.0 years in 1985 to 76.3 years in 2010. The gap between female and male life expectancy in the United States was 7.0 years in 1985, narrowing to 4.6 years in 2010. For males at the county level, the highest life expectancy steadily increased from 75.5 in 1985 to 81.7 in 2010, while the lowest life expectancy remained under 65. For females at the county level, the highest life expectancy increased from 81.1 to 85.0, and the lowest life expectancy remained around 73. For male life expectancy at the county level, there have been three phases in the evolution of inequality: a period of rising inequality from 1985 to 1993, a period of stable inequality from 1993 to 2002, and rising inequality from 2002 to 2010. For females, in contrast, inequality has steadily increased during the 25-year period. Compared to only 154 counties where male life expectancy remained stagnant or declined, 1,405 out of 3,143 counties (45%) have seen no significant change or a significant decline in female life expectancy from 1985 to 2010. In all time periods, the lowest county-level life expectancies are seen in the South, the Mississippi basin, West Virginia, Kentucky, and selected counties with large Native American populations. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in the number of counties where female life expectancy at birth is declining in the most recent period is welcome news. However, the widening disparities between counties and the slow rate of increase compared to other countries should be viewed as a call for action. An increased focus on factors affecting health outcomes, morbidity, and mortality such as socioeconomic factors, difficulty of access to and poor quality of health care, and behavioral, environmental, and metabolic risk factors is urgently required.

Carryover bias in visual assessment.

Carryover of stimuli in sequential judgments was studied for a visual assessment task involving estimation of the percentage cover of black circles on a white image. Seven image types with different levels of cover density were arranged in a sequentially balanced design in which each image type was preceded the same number of times by all image types. In the absence of carryover, when images were preceded by images with the same cover density, the response scores were well fitted by a power function of percentage cover with a mean exponent of 0.73 over subjects. Carryover took the form of an assimilation, so that the cover estimate for a target image was generally higher when preceded by an image with higher cover, and lower when preceded by an image with lower cover. However, the magnitude of the carryover effect showed little evidence of increasing with difference in cover between successive images. Nonparametric and parametric methods for testing for carryover are presented. The need for development of psychological models to explain the proposed statistical models is discussed.

The role of interpretation processes and parental discussion in the media's effects on adolescents' use of alcohol.

OBJECTIVE: The process that connects media use with alcohol-related beliefs and behaviors has not been well documented. To address this issue, we examined adolescents' viewing patterns, beliefs about alcohol and media messages, and parental discussion of media messages in the context of a theoretical model of message interpretation processes. Measures included the degree to which adolescents found portrayals desirable, realistic, and similar to their own lives; the degree to which they wanted to be like (identify with) the portrayals; and the degree to which they associated positive outcomes with drinking alcohol (expectancies). DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Two public high schools in the California central coastal area that include a diverse population in terms of ethnic origin, income level, and education level. PARTICIPANTS: Ninth-grade students (n = 252) and 12th-grade students (n = 326). OUTCOME MEASURES: Students reported the number of days within the past week watching various genres of television content, along with perceptions of realism of content, desirability of portrayals, identification with portrayals, expectancies toward alcohol use, personal norms for alcohol use, desire for products with alcohol logos, current alcohol use, frequency of parental reinforcement, and counter-reinforcement of television messages. Associations were examined via hierarchical multiple regression analysis. RESULTS: Effects of media exposure on drinking behavior, controlling for grade level, ethnicity, gender, household income, and education levels were primarily positive and indirect, operating through a number of intervening beliefs, especially expectancies (beta =.59; r(2) =.33). Direct associations, primarily with exposure to late-night talk shows (beta =.12; r(2) =.01), were small. Parental discussion also affected behavior indirectly, operating through expectancies, identification, and perceived realism. The appeal of products with alcohol logos, which was higher among the younger students (t = 3.44) and predicted by expectancies (beta =. 37; r(2) =.13), sports viewing (beta =.17; r(2) =.03) and late-night talk shows (beta =.10; r(2) =.01), predicted actual drinking behavior (beta =.22; r(2) =.04). Drinking behavior was higher among the older students (t = -2.515). CONCLUSIONS: Adolescents make drinking decisions using a progressive, logical decision-making process that can be overwhelmed by wishful thinking. The potential risk of frequent exposure to persuasive alcohol portrayals via late-night talk shows, sports, music videos, and prime-time television for underage drinking is moderated by parental reinforcement and counter-reinforcement of messages. Interventions need to acknowledge and counter the appeal of desirable and seemingly realistic alcohol portrayals in the media and alert parents to their potential for unintended adverse effects.

Specialty networking in pediatric surgery: a paradigm for the future of academic surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To review retrospectively a 4-year experience with pediatric surgical networking at a major academic medical center in the Midwest. BACKGROUND: The growth of managed care in the United States during the past decade has had a major impact on the practice of medicine in general, but especially on academic medicine. In some academic medical centers, the loss of market share has not only affected clinical activity but has also compromised the educational and research missions of these institutions. METHODS: At the authors' institution, a networking strategy in pediatric surgery was established in 1993 and implemented on July 1, 1994. In 1994, one new satellite practice was established; over the next 4 years, four additional practices were added, including one in another state. To assess the impact on financial status, clinical activity, education, and academic productivity, the following parameters were analyzed: gross and net revenue, surgical cases, clinic visits, ranking of the pediatric surgery residency, publications, grant support, and development and endowment funds. RESULTS: Gross and net revenue increased from $3,273,000 and $302,000 in 1993 to $10,087,000 and $2,826,000, respectively, in 1998. Surgical cases and clinic visits increased from 1240 and 3751 in 1993 to 5872 and 11,604, respectively, in 1998. At the medical center's children's hospital, surgical cases and clinic visits increased from 1240 and 3751 to 2592 and 4729 during the same time period. During this 4-year period, the faculty increased from 4 to 11. Since 1997, the National Resident Matching Program has provided data on how pediatric surgery residency candidates ranked a training program. In 1997, this program received the second-most one to five rankings; in 1998, it tied for first. This exceeds the faculty's perception of previous years' rankings. Publications increased from 26 in 1993 to a peak number of 62 in 1996; in 1997 and 1998 the publications were 48 and 37, respectively. External grant support increased from $139,882 in 1993 to a total of $6,109,971 in 1998. Development and endowment funds increased from $103,559 in 1993 to $2,702,2777 in 1998. CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric surgical networking at the authors' institution has had a markedly positive impact on finances, clinical activity, education, and academic productivity during a 4-year period. The residency training program appears to have improved in popularity among candidates, probably because of the increased referral of complex cases to the medical center from the various networking satellites. External grant support and basic laboratory research significantly increased, most likely because of the greater number of faculty with protected time for research recruited. Development and endowment funds dramatically grew because of the excellent fiscal health of the pediatric surgical program. This experience may serve as a model for other academic surgical specialties.

Benefit of neurophysiologic monitoring for pediatric cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric patients undergoing repair of congenital cardiac abnormalities have a significant risk of an adverse neurologic event. Therefore this retrospective cohort study examined the potential benefit of interventions based on intraoperative neurophysiologic monitoring in decreasing both postoperative neurologic sequelae and length of hospital stay as a cost proxy. METHODS: With informed parental consent approved by the institutional review board, electroencephalography, transcranial Doppler ultrasonic measurement of middle cerebral artery blood flow velocity, and transcranial near-infrared cerebral oximetry were monitored in 250 patients. An interventional algorithm was used to detect and correct specific deficiencies in cerebral perfusion or oxygenation or to increase cerebral tolerance to ischemia or hypoxia. RESULTS: Noteworthy changes in brain perfusion or metabolism were observed in 176 of 250 (70%) patients. Intervention that altered patient management was initially deemed appropriate in 130 of 176 (74%) patients with neurophysiologic changes. Obvious neurologic sequelae (i.e., seizure, movement, vision or speech disorder) occurred in five of 74 (7%) patients without noteworthy change, seven of 130 (6%) patients with intervention, and 12 of 46 (26%) patients without intervention (p = 0.001). Survivors' median length of stay was 6 days in the no-change and intervention groups but 9 days in the no-intervention group. In addition, the percentage of patients in the no-intervention group discharged from the hospital within 1 week (32%) was significantly less than that in either the intervention (51%, p = 0.05) or no-change (58%, p = 0.01) groups. On the basis of an estimated hospital neurologic complication cost of $1500 per day, break-even analysis justified a hospital expenditure for neurophysiologic monitoring of $2142 per case. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions based on neurophysiologic monitoring appear to decrease the incidence of postoperative neurologic sequelae and reduce the length of stay. Inasmuch as the break-even cost for neurophysiologic monitoring is more than four times the actual average charge, both patients and hospital may profit from this service. Because this study was not a truly randomized clinical trial, unintentional statistical bias may have occurred and caution is urged in interpreting the magnitude of apparent intergroup outcome differences.

Early assessment of rest and exercise left ventricular function following coronary artery surgery.

Radionuclide assessment of rest and exercise left ventricular function was performed in 14 patients before, eight days after, and three months after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Resting function was unaltered after operation, although mild increases in heart rate and end-diastolic volume were observed on the eighth postoperative day. In contrast, exercise function was significantly improved at both postoperative time periods. Exercise ejection fraction was 0.54 +/- 0.10 before operation, 0.73 +/- 0.12 at eight days, and 0.64 +/- 0.13 at three months. Before CABG, the exercise-induced increase in stroke volume was achieved by an increase in end-diastolic volume, whereas eight days after CABG this increase was achieved by an increase in contractility (systolic blood pressure/end-systolic volume). By three months, both contractility and end-diastolic volume increased with exercise. Thus, improvement in left ventricular function during exercise can be documented as early as eight days after coronary revascularization. This change may be less pronounced after three months of convalescence, but considerable improvement in ventricular function persists compared to preoperative assessment.

Family abuse of the elderly.

In 12 cases of family abuse of disabled elderly persons, the majority of the abused were women. Caretakers included spouses, children, siblings or other relatives. Abuse was both physical and verbal/psychologic. Neglect, the most common form of physical abuse, sometimes resulted in decubitus ulcers and vermin infestation. Misuse of medical therapy and nutrition were other areas of physical abuse. Psychologic abuse included derogation, infantilization, and threats of institutionalization, abandonment, and homicide. Possible causes of abuse included alcoholism in the caretaker, financial concerns, and long-term family conflicts. Various recommendations are made for the management of abusive families.