Combined Longitudinal Clinical and Autopsy Phenomic Assessment in Lethal Metastatic Prostate Cancer: Recommendations for Advancing Precision Medicine.

BACKGROUND: Systematic identification of data essential for outcome prediction in metastatic prostate cancer (mPC) would accelerate development of precision oncology. OBJECTIVE: To identify novel phenotypes and features associated with mPC outcome, and to identify biomarker and data requirements to be tested in future precision oncology trials. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed deep longitudinal clinical, neuroendocrine expression, and autopsy data of 33 men who died from mPC between 1995 and 2004 (PELICAN33), and related findings to mPC biomarkers reported in the literature. INTERVENTION: Thirty-three men prospectively consented to participate in an integrated clinical-molecular rapid autopsy study of mPC. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Data exploration with correction for multiple testing and survival analysis from the time of diagnosis to time to death and time to first occurrence of severe pain as outcomes were carried out. The effect of seven complications on the modeled probability of dying within 2 yr after presenting with the complication was evaluated using logistic regression. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Feature exploration revealed novel phenotypes related to mPC outcome. Four complications (pleural effusion, severe anemia, severe or controlled pain, and bone fracture) predict the likelihood of death within 2 yr. Men with Gleason grade group 5 cancers developed severe pain sooner than those with lower-grade tumors. Surprisingly, neuroendocrine (NE) differentiation was frequently observed in the setting of high serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels (≥30 ng/ml). In 4/33 patients, no controlled (requiring analgesics) or severe pain was detected, and strikingly, 14/15 metastatic sites studied in these men did not express NE markers, suggesting an inverse relationship between NE differentiation and pain in mPC. Intracranial subdural metastasis is common (36%) and is usually clinically undetected. Categorization of "skeletal-related events" complications used in recent studies likely obscures the understanding of spinal cord compression and fracture. Early death from prostate cancer was identified in a subgroup of men with a low longitudinal PSA bandwidth. Cachexia is common (body mass index <0.89 in 24/31 patients) but limited to the last year of life. Biomarker review identified 30 categories of mPC biomarkers in need of winnowing in future trials. All findings require validation in larger cohorts, preferably alongside data from this study. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified novel outcome subgroups for future validation and provides "vision for mPC precision oncology 2020-2050" draft recommendations for future data collection and biomarker studies. PATIENT SUMMARY: To better understand variation in metastatic prostate cancer behavior, we assembled and analyzed longitudinal clinical and autopsy records in 33 men. We identified novel outcomes, phenotypes, and aspects of disease burden to be tested and refined in future trials.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of PSA-based mass screening: Evidence from a randomised controlled trial combined with register data.

In contrast to earlier studies which have used modelling to perform cost-effectiveness analysis, this study links data from a randomised controlled trial with register data from nationwide registries to reveal new evidence on costs, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of organised mass prostate-cancer screening based on prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted with individual-level data on health-care costs from comprehensive registers and register data on real-world effectiveness from the two arms of the Finnish Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (FinRSPC), following 80,149 men from 1996 through 2015. The study examines cost-effectiveness in terms of overall mortality and, in addition, in terms of diagnosed men's mortality from prostate cancer and mortality with but not from prostate cancer. Neither arm of the FinRSPC was clearly more cost-effective in analysis in terms of overall mortality. Organised screening in the FinRSPC could be considered cost-effective in terms of deaths from prostate cancer: averting just over one death per 1000 men screened. However, even with an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of below 20,000€ per death avoided, this result should not be considered in isolation. This is because mass screening in this trial also resulted in increases in death with, but not from, prostate cancer: with over five additional deaths per 1000 men screened. Analysis of real-world data from the FinRSPC reveals new evidence of the comparative effectiveness of PSA-based screening after 20 years of follow-up, suggesting the possibility of higher mortality, as well as higher healthcare costs, for screening-arm men who have been diagnosed with prostate cancer but who do not die from it. These findings should be corroborated or contradicted by similar analyses using data from other trials, in order to reveal if more diagnosed men have also died in the screening arms of other trials of mass screening for prostate cancer.

Productivity losses associated with premature mortality due to cancer in Russia: A population-wide study covering 2001-2030.

Aims: Productivity losses related to premature cancer mortality have been assessed for most developed countries but results for Russia are limited to cross-sectional reports. The aim of this study was to quantify productivity costs due to cancer mortality in Russia between 2001 and 2015 and project this to 2030. Methods: Cancer mortality data (2001-2015) were acquired from the State Cancer Registry, whereas population data, labour force participation rates and annual earnings were retrieved from the Federal State Statistics Service. Cancer mortality was projected to 2030 and the human capital approach was applied to estimate productivity losses. Results: The total annual losses increased from US6.5b in 2001-2005 to US$8.1b in 2011-2015, corresponding to 0.24% of the annual gross domestic product. The value is expected to remain high in 2030 (US$7.5b, 0.14% of gross domestic product). Productivity losses per cancer death are predicted to grow faster in women (from US$18,622 to US$22,386) than in men (from US$25,064 to US$28,459). Total losses were found to be highest for breast cancer in women (US$0.6b, 20% of overall losses in women) and lung cancer in men (US$1.2b, 24%). The absolute predicted change of annual losses between 2011-2015 and 2026-2030 was greatest for cervix uteri (+US$214m) in women and for lip, oral and pharyngeal cancers in men (+US$182m). Conclusions: In Russia, productivity losses due to premature cancer mortality are substantial. Given the expected importance especially for potentially preventable cancers, steps to implement effective evidence-based national cancer control policies are urgently required.

Severity and bother of lower urinary tract symptoms among men aged 30-80 years: Tampere Ageing Male Urological Study (TAMUS).

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the severity and bother of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and evaluate the burden of each symptom in a male population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Postal questionnaires were sent to 7470 men aged 30-80 years. The Danish Prostatic Symptom Score (DAN-PSS-1) was used to determine the severity, bother and total symptom score for each symptom. To assess the total burden of each symptom at the population level, the total symptom scores were weighted by the prevalence they represented. RESULTS: The overall response rate was 58.7% (4384/7470 men). Urgency caused the greatest burden to men aged 30-80, with a prevalence-weighted symptom score of 0.712. Urgency affected 66.2% of men and 5.1% experienced moderate symptoms with moderate bother. Post-micturition dribble caused the second greatest burden, with a prevalence-weighted score of 0.704, affecting 58.7% of men and with 31.1% reporting mild bother from it. Nocturia and feeling of incomplete emptying caused the third and fourth greatest burdens, respectively. In young men (aged 30 and 40 years), post-micturition dribble caused the greatest burden, as moderate symptoms were common and caused mild bother to 11.4%. Among retired (70 and 80 years) and middle-aged (50 and 60 years) men, urgency was the most burdensome symptom. CONCLUSIONS: The most burdensome LUTS in men aged 30-80 years was urgency, followed by post-micturition dribble, nocturia and feeling of incomplete emptying. Urgency and nocturia were prominent in old men and post-micturition dribble was noted in young men.

Bayesian negative-binomial-family-based multistate Markov model for the evaluation of periodic population-based cancer screening considering incomplete information and measurement errors.

Population-based cancer screening is often asked but hardly addressed by a question: "How many rounds of screening are required before identifying a cancer of interest staying in the pre-clinical detectable phase (PCDP)?" and also a similar one related to the number of screens required for stopping screening for the low risk group. It can be answered by using longitudinal follow-up data on repeated rounds of screen, namely periodic screen, but such kind of data are rather complicated and fraught with intractable statistical properties including correlated multistate outcomes, unobserved and incomplete (censoring or truncation) information, and imperfect measurements. We therefore developed a negative-binomial-family-based discrete-time stochastic process, taking sensitivity and specificity into account, to accommodate these thorny issues. The estimation of parameters was implemented with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We demonstrated how to apply this proposed negative-binomial-family-based model to the empirical data similar to the Finnish breast cancer screening program.

Costs of screening for prostate cancer: Evidence from the Finnish Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer after 20-year follow-up using register data.

OBJECTIVES: Few empirical analyses of the impact of organised prostate cancer (PCa) screening on healthcare costs exist, despite cost-related information often being considered as a prerequisite to informed screening decisions. Therefore, we estimate the differences in register-based costs of publicly funded healthcare in the two arms of the Finnish Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (FinRSPC) after 20 years. METHODS: We obtained individual-level register data on prescription medications, as well as inpatient and outpatient care, to estimate healthcare costs for 80,149 men during the first 20 years of the FinRSPC. We compared healthcare costs for the men in each trial arm and performed statistical analysis. RESULTS: For all men diagnosed with PCa during the 20-year observation period, mean PCa-related costs appeared to be around 10% lower in the screening arm (SA). Mean all-cause healthcare costs for these men were also lower in the SA, but differences were smaller than for PCa-related costs alone, and no longer statistically significant. For men dying from PCa, although the difference was not statistically significant, mean all-cause healthcare costs were around 10% higher. When analysis included all observations, cumulative costs were slightly higher in the CA; however, after excluding extreme values, cumulative costs were slightly higher in the SA. CONCLUSIONS: No major cost impacts due to screening were apparent, but the FinRSPC's 20-year follow-up period is too short to provide definitive evidence at this stage. Longer term follow-up will be required to be better informed about the costs of, or savings from, introducing mass PCa screening.

Costs of Robotic-Assisted Versus Traditional Laparoscopy in Endometrial Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to compare the costs of traditional laparoscopy and robotic-assisted laparoscopy in the treatment of endometrial cancer. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A total of 101 patients with endometrial cancer were randomized to the study and operated on starting from 2010 until 2013, at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of Tampere University Hospital, Tampere, Finland. Costs were calculated based on internal accounting, hospital database, and purchase prices and were compared using intention-to-treat analysis. Main outcome measures were item costs and total costs related to the operation, including a 6-month postoperative follow-up. RESULTS: The total costs including late complications were 2160 &OV0556; higher in the robotic group (median for traditional 5823 &OV0556;, vs robot median 7983 &OV0556;, P < 0.001). The difference was due to higher costs for instruments and equipment as well as to more expensive operating room and postanesthesia care unit time. Traditional laparoscopy involved higher costs for operation personnel, general costs, medication used in the operation, and surgeon, although these costs were not substantial. There was no significant difference in in-patient stay, laboratory, radiology, blood products, or costs related to complications. CONCLUSIONS: According to this study, robotic-assisted laparoscopy is 37% more expensive than traditional laparoscopy in the treatment of endometrial cancer. The cost difference is mainly explained by amortization of the robot and its instrumentation.

Prostate cancer-specific survival among warfarin users in the Finnish Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolic events (VTE) are common in cancer patients and associated with higher mortality. In vivo thrombosis and anticoagulation might be involved in tumor growth and progression. We studied the association of warfarin and other anticoagulant use as antithrombotic medication and prostate cancer (PCa) death in men with the disease. METHODS: The study included 6,537 men diagnosed with PCa during 1995-2009. Information on anticoagulant use was obtained from a national reimbursement registry. Cox regression with adjustment for age, PCa risk group, primary therapy and use of other medication was performed to compare risk of PCa death between warfarin users with 1) men using other types of anticoagulants and 2) non-users of anticoagulants. Medication use was analyzed as a time-dependent variable to minimize immortal time bias. RESULTS: In total, 728 men died from PCa during a median follow-up of 9 years. Compared to anticoagulant non-users, post-diagnostic use of warfarin was associated with an increased risk of PCa death (overall HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.13-1.93). However, this was limited to low-dose, low-intensity use. Otherwise, the risk was similar to anticoagulant non-users. Additionally, we found no risk difference between warfarin and other types of anticoagulants. Pre-diagnostic use of warfarin was not associated with the risk of PCa death. CONCLUSIONS: We found no reduction in risk of PCa death associated with warfarin use. Conversely, the risk was increased in short-term use, which is probably explained by a higher risk of thrombotic events prompting warfarin use in patients with terminal PCa.

The effect of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs on risk of benign prostatic hyperplasia.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation may play a role in pathogenesis of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). However, the role of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) as BPH risk factor is unclear. The objective of this study was to examine risk of BPH by NSAID use in a population-based cohort. METHODS: A total of 74 754 Finnish men without previous BPH at baseline in 1996-1999 were linked to national medication reimbursement database for information on physician-prescribed NSAID purchases during 1995-2009. Information on BPH procedures and diagnoses was obtained from national Care Register for Health Care. Cox regression with adjustment for age and use of cholesterol-lowering, antidiabetic and antihypertensive medication, with NSAID use as time-dependent variable was used to analyse the risk of BPH surgery, medication use, and recorded diagnosis. RESULTS: Of the subjects 57 707 men (77.2%) used prescription NSAIDs. The risk of BPH was elevated among NSAID users compared to non-users: HR 2.04, 95% CI 1.97-2.10 for BPH medication use, HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.47-1.71 for recorded diagnosis and HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.49-1.74 for surgery. The risk increase correlated with duration of NSAID usage, less with annual dosage. Nevertheless, the risk increase was observed already at short-term and low-dosage use. CONCLUSIONS: NSAID use is associated with an increased risk of BPH. The association is affected by systematic differences by NSAID use as the risk increase was observed already at short-term use. Nevertheless, the association correlated with duration of use, suggesting that NSAID usage or the conditions indicating it may increase BPH risk.

National economic and development indicators and international variation in prostate cancer incidence and mortality: an ecological analysis.

BACKGROUND: Macroeconomic indicators are likely associated with prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality globally, but have rarely been assessed. METHODS: Data on PCa incidence in 2003-2007 for 49 countries with either nationwide cancer registry or at least two regional registries were obtained from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Vol X and national PCa mortality for 2012 from GLOBOCAN 2012. We compared PCa incidence and mortality rates with various population-level indicators of health, economy and development in 2000. Poisson and linear regression methods were used to quantify the associations. RESULTS: PCa incidence varied more than 15-fold, being highest in high-income countries. PCa mortality exhibited less variation, with higher rates in many low- and middle-income countries. Healthcare expenditure (rate ratio, RR 1.46, 95 % CI 1.45-1.47) and population growth (RR 1.15, 95 % CI 1.14-1.16), as well as computer and mobile phone density, were associated with a higher PCa incidence, while gross domestic product, GDP (RR 0.94, 95 % CI 0.93-0.95) and overall mortality (RR 0.72, 95 % CI 0.71-0.73) were associated with a low incidence. GDP (RR 0.55, 95 % CI 0.46-0.66) was also associated with a low PCa mortality, while life expectancy (RR 3.93, 95 % CI 3.22-4.79) and healthcare expenditure (RR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.09-1.32) were associated with an elevated mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that healthcare expenditure and, thus, the availability of medical resources are an important contributor to the patterns of international variation in PCa incidence. This suggests that there is an iatrogenic component in the current global epidemic of PCa. On the other hand, higher healthcare expenditure is associated with lower PCa death rates.

Prostate Cancer and Socioeconomic Status in the Finnish Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer.

Prostate cancer (PC) screening remains controversial. We investigated whether screening reduces the difference in prostate cancer risk by socioeconomic status (SES). In 1996-2011, a total of 72,139 men from the Finnish Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer were analyzed. Outcome measures were PC incidence, mortality, and participation in screening. SES indicators were educational level, income, and home ownership status (data obtained from the Statistics Finland registry). The mean duration of follow-up was 12.7 years. Higher SES was associated with a higher incidence of low- to moderate-risk PC but with a lower risk of advanced PC. Higher education was associated with significantly lower PC mortality in both control and screening arms (risk ratio = 0.48-0.69; P < 0.05). Higher income was also associated with lower PC mortality but only in the control arm (risk ratio = 0.45-0.73; P < 0.05). There were no significant differences in SES gradient by arm (Pinteraction = 0.33 and Pinteraction = 0.47 for primary vs. secondary education and primary vs. tertiary education, respectively; Pinteraction = 0.65 and Pinteraction = 0.09 for low vs. intermediate income and low vs. high income, respectively; and Pinteraction = 0.27 among home ownership status strata). Substantial gradients by SES in PC incidence and mortality were observed in the control arm. Higher SES was associated with overdiagnosis of low-risk PC and, conversely, lower risk of incurable PC and lower PC mortality. Special attention should be directed toward recruiting men with low SES to participate in population-based cancer screening.

Epilepsy, excess deaths and years of life lost from external causes.

We systematically quantified excess mortality in epilepsy patients by cause of death using the population-attributable fraction and epilepsy-attributable years of potential life lost (YPLL) by age 75 years at ages 15 and over. We updated and undertook a re-review of mortality studies from our previous systematic review following PRISMA guidelines to identify cohort studies of general epilepsy populations reporting a relative risk (RR) of death by cause relative to the background rates in the population. Studies on epilepsy prevalence were identified through published reviews. Country-specific mortality figures were obtained from the WHO World Mortality Database. We performed a pooled analysis with the DerSimonian-Laird random effects method. In countries with very high Human Development Indices, epilepsy contributed to 0.5-1.1 % of all deaths in the total population. Among external causes, suicides (RR 2.9, 95 % confidence interval 2.2-3.8; I(2) 52 %) were the major contributor to YPLL, corresponding to 6.7 % and 4.2 % of excess YPLL due to epilepsy in the United States (US) and in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2010, with 541 (346-792) and 44 (28-65) excess suicide cases, respectively. Fatal accidental falls were more common, with 813 (610-1064) and 95 (71-125) excess deaths in the US and in the UK, but these caused only 2.0 % of excess YPLL as they occurred in older age groups. Suicides were the most important external cause of death in epilepsy patients in terms of excess YPLL, whereas other external causes were either more common in older ages or caused less excess deaths.

Prostate cancer screening using risk stratification based on a multi-state model of genetic variants.

BACKGROUND: Risk-stratified screening for prostate cancer (PCa) with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing incorporating genetic variants has received some attention but has been scarcely investigated. We developed a model to stratify the Finnish population by different risk profiles related to genetic variants to optimize the screening policy. METHODS: Data from the Finnish randomized controlled trial on screening for PCa with PSA testing were used to estimate a six-state Markov model of disease progression. Blood samples from Finnish men were used to assess the risk of PCa related to three genetic variants (rs4242382, rs138213197, and rs200331695). A risk score-based approach combined with a series of computer simulation models was applied to optimize individual screening policies. RESULTS: The 10-year risk of having progressive prostate cancer detected ranged from 43% in the top 5% risk group to approximately 11% in the bottom half of the population. Using the median group, with screening every four years beginning at 55 years-old, as the reference group, the recommended age beginning screening was approximately 47 years-old for the top 5% risk group and 55 years-old for those in the lower 60% risk group. The recommended interscreening interval has been shortened for individuals in the high risk group. The increased availability of genomic information allows the proposed multistate model to be more discriminating with respect to risk stratification and the suggested screening policy, particularly for the lowest risk groups-. -- CONCLUSIONS: A multi-state genetic variant-based model was developed for further application to population risk stratification to optimize the interscreening interval and the age at which to begin screening for PSA. A small sub-group of the population is likely to benefit from more intensive screening with early start and short interval, while half of the population is unlikely to benefit from such protocol (compared with four-year interval after age 55 years).

Long-term mortality risk by cause of death in newly diagnosed patients with epilepsy in Finland: a nationwide register-based study.

To estimate long-term mortality by cause of death in a nationwide, register-based cohort of newly diagnosed patients with epilepsy (PWE). All noninstitutionalized Finnish PWE aged 10-74 years (n = 10,818) eligible for reimbursement for antiepileptic medication for the first time between 1990 and 1994 were identified in the database of Social Insurance Institution of Finland. Mortality was compared against a population-based reference cohort (n = 43,894). Hazard ratios (HR) and their 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI) during a follow-up of 18 years were estimated using proportional hazards modeling. Potential years of life lost (PYLL) and excess fraction of causes of death attributable to epilepsy were estimated. PWE contributed 137,610 person-years of observation and there were 3,558 deaths. Mortality remained elevated up to 18 years post-diagnosis (HR 3.21, 95 % CI 3.07-3.35). Ischemic heart disease mortality in PWE was two-fold (HR 2.31, 95 % CI 2.09-2.54), and remained constantly elevated during entire follow-up in both men and women. Most premature mortality in terms of PYLL was attributable to brain cancer (17 %), other cancers (15 %), ischemic heart disease (11 %), as well as cerebrovascular diseases (10 %). The percentage of deaths in PWE statistically attributable to epilepsy was 3.9 % for accidents, 3.4 % for alcohol-related diseases, and 1.6 % for suicides. PWE had substantial excess mortality from non-communicable diseases, which did not disappear by 18 years. Diseases of the circulatory system and cancers, especially brain cancer, were the most important causes of death almost regardless of the mortality indicator.

Smoking cessation intervention in rural kerala, India: findings of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of tobacco use is higher in the rural than urban areas of India. Unlike tobacco cessation clinics located in urban areas, community-based smoking cessation intervention has the potential to reach a wider section of the community to assist in smoking cessation in the rural setting. The present study aimed to assess the effectiveness of a cessation intervention in rural Kerala state, India. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Current daily smoking resident males in the age group 18-60 years from four community development blocks in rural Kerala were randomly allocated to intervention and control groups. The intervention group received multiple approaches in which priority was given to face-to-face interviews and telephone counselling. Initially educational materials on tobacco hazards were distributed. Further, four rounds of counselling sessions were conducted which included a group counselling with a medical camp as well as individual counselling by trained medical social workers. The control group received general awareness training on tobacco hazards along with an anti-tobacco leaflet. Self-reported smoking status was assessed after 6 and 12 months. Factors associated with tobacco cessation were estimated using binomial regression method. RESULTS: Overall prevalence of smoking abstinence was 14.7% in the intervention and 6.8% in the control group (Relative risk: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.05, 3.25). A total of 41.3% subjects in the intervention area and 13.6% in the control area had reduced smoking by 50% or more at the end of 12 months. Lower number of cigarettes/ bidi used, low nicotine dependence and consultation with a doctor for a medical ailment were the statistically significant predictors for smoking cessation. CONCLUSIONS: Rigorous approaches for smoking cessation programmes can enhance quit rates in smoking in rural areas of India.

The impact of interscreening interval and age on prostate cancer screening with prostate-specific antigen.

BACKGROUND: Population-based screening for prostate cancer (PCa) has used serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) since the early 1990s. However, the efficacy could be affected by screening interval, age ranges of screening, attendance, and contamination of the control group in randomised controlled trials. OBJECTIVE: Assess the impact of the above-mentioned factors on screening efficacy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Parameters pertaining to the natural history of PCa and sensitivity were estimated using data from the Finnish quadrennial screening program starting at 55 yr of age and terminating at 71 yr of age and comprising 80 458 men (32 000 in the screening arm and 48 458 in the control arm). We performed Markov decision analyses for different screening policies with a simulated 25-yr follow-up. INTERVENTION: PSA screening. MEASUREMENTS: The impact of different interscreening intervals and target age ranges on advanced PCa (stage III or worse) and PCa mortality was assessed. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: With 65% attendance and 20% contamination, as in the Finnish trial, screening would result in an 11.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.1-13.3%) reduction in advanced cancers and a 7.3% (95% CI, 5.3-9.7%) reduction in PCa death, with corresponding absolute risk difference of 2.6% (95% CI, 1.9-3.5%) and 1.8% (95% CI, 1.4-2.2%), respectively. Numbers needed to screen were 385 to prevent one case of advanced PCa and 556 to prevent one PCa death at 25 yr. Those figures remained similar from 12 yr onwards. Reduction in advanced PCa increased to 40% with annual screening and to 24% with biennial screening. When the age at screening initiation was increased by 5 yr, the benefit was reduced by 9% with annual screening and by 3% with biennial screening. CONCLUSIONS: We predicted the impact of basic screening characteristics on the benefit of the program. The screening interval (1-4 yr) had a greater impact on mortality reduction than did the age at start of screening (55-65 yr). CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): ISRCTN49127736.

A stochastic model for survival of early prostate cancer with adjustments for leadtime, length bias, and over-detection.

To compare the survival between screen-detected and clinically detected cancers, we applied a series of non-homogeneous stochastic processes to deal with leadtime, length bias, and over-detection by using full information on detection modes obtained from the Finnish randomized controlled trial for prostate cancer screening. The results show after 9-year follow-up the hazard ratio of prostate cancer death for screen-detected cases against clinically detected cases increased from 0.24 (95% CI: 0.16-0.35) without correction for these biases, to 0.76 after correction for leadtime and length biases, and finally to 1.03 (95% CI: 0.79-1.33) for a further adjustment for over-detection. Adjustment for leadtime and length bias but no over-detection led to a 24% reduction in prostate cancer death as a result of prostate-specific antigen test. The further calibration of over-detection indicates no gain in survival of screen-detected prostate cancers (excluding over-detected case as stayer considered in the mover-stayer model) as compared with the control group in the absence of screening that is considered as the mover. However, whether the model assumption on over-detection is robust should be validated with other data sets and longer follow-up.

Panel discussion does not improve reliability of peer review for medical research grant proposals.

OBJECTIVE: Peer review is the gold standard for evaluating scientific quality. Compared with studies on inter-reviewer variability, research on panel evaluation is scarce. To appraise the reliability of panel evaluations in grant review, we compared scores by two expert panels reviewing the same grant proposals. Our main interest was to evaluate whether panel discussion improves reliability. METHODS: Thirty reviewers were randomly allocated to one of the two panels. Sixty-five grant proposals in the fields of clinical medicine and epidemiology were reviewed by both panels. All reviewers received 5-12 proposals. Each proposal was evaluated by two reviewers, using a six-point scale. The reliability of reviewer and panel scores was evaluated using Cohen's kappa with linear weighting. In addition, reliability was also evaluated for the panel mean scores (mean of reviewer scores was used as panel score). RESULTS: The proportion of large differences (at least two points) was 40% for reviewers in panel A, 36% for reviewers in panel B, 26% for the panel discussion scores, and 14% when the means of the two reviewer scores were used. The kappa for panel score after discussion was 0.23 (95% confidence interval: 0.08, 0.39). By using the mean of the reviewer scores, the panel coefficient was similarly 0.23 (0.00, 0.46). CONCLUSION: The reliability between panel scores was higher than between reviewer scores. The similar interpanel reliability, when using the final panel score or the mean value of reviewer scores, indicates that panel discussions per se did not improve the reliability of the evaluation.