Bottled water safety evaluation: A comprehensive health risk assessment of oral exposure to heavy metals through deterministic and probabilistic approaches by Monte Carlo simulation.

The consumption of bottled water has witnessed substantial global expansion in recent times. This study aimed to quantitatively evaluate the concentrations of eight heavy metals (As, Ba, Cd, Cr, Mn, Mo, Ni, and Zn) in 71 high-consumption bottled water brands in Iran. Non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk assessments were conducted using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Point estimation utilizing the Hazard Quotient (HQ) formula and sensitivity analysis employing the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method through 10,000 repetitions in Oracle Crystal Ball® was used to ascertain the health risks associated with heavy metal exposure. Heavy metal concentrations were quantified through Inductively Coupled Plasma-Optical Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-OES). HQ point estimation results indicated that Cr exhibited the highest mean HQ value, whereas Cd demonstrated the lowest. In the probabilistic approach, the highest 95 percentile values were observed for Cr and Mo at 3.9E-01, while the lowest values were recorded for Cr and Mn at 1.10E-02. Heavy metal concentrations emerged as critical factors influencing non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks across all groups in the sensitivity analysis. The findings highlight the need for ongoing monitoring, research, and targeted regulations to address health risks from heavy metal exposure in bottled water and ensure public well-being.

Comprehensive health risk analysis of heavy metal pollution using water quality indices and Monte Carlo simulation in R software.

Rapid urbanization, population growth, agricultural practices, and industrial activities have led to widespread groundwater contamination. This study evaluated heavy metal contamination in residential drinking water in Shiraz, Iran (2021). The analysis involved 80 groundwater samples collected across wet and dry seasons. Water quality was comprehensively assessed using several indices, including the heavy metals evaluation index (HEI), heavy metal pollution index (HPI), contamination degree (CD), and metal index (MI). Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk assessments were conducted using deterministic and probabilistic approaches for exposed populations. In the non-carcinogenic risk assessment, the chronic daily intake (CDI), hazard quotient (HQ), and hazard index (HI) are employed. The precision of risk assessment was bolstered through the utilization of Monte Carlo simulation, executed using the R software platform. Based on the results, in both wet and dry seasons, Zinc (Zn) consistently demonstrates the highest mean concentration, followed by Manganese (Mn) and Chromium (Cr). During the wet and dry seasons, 25% and 40% of the regions exhibited high CD, respectively. According to non-carcinogenic risk assessment, Cr presents the highest CDI and HQ in children and adults, followed by Mn, As and HI values, indicating elevated risk for children. The highest carcinogenic risk was for Cr in adults, while the lowest was for Cd in children. The sensitivity analysis found that heavy metal concentration and ingestion rate significantly impact both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks. These findings provide critical insights for shaping policy and allocating resources towards effectively managing heavy metal contamination in residential drinking water.