Cost-Effectiveness of Mass Treatment with Azithromycin for Reducing Child Mortality in Malawi: Secondary Analysis from the MORDOR Trial.

The recent Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial reported a reduction in child mortality following biannual azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA). Here, we investigate the financial costs and cost-effectiveness from the health provider perspective of azithromycin MDA at the MORDOR-Malawi study site. During MORDOR, a cluster-randomized trial involving biannual azithromycin MDA or placebo to children aged 1-59 months, fieldwork-related costs were collected, including personnel, transport, consumables, overheads, training, and supervision. Mortality rates in azithromycin- and placebo-treated clusters were calculated overall and for the five health zones of Mangochi district. These were used to estimate the number needed to treat to avert one death and the costs per death and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. The cost per dose of MDA was $0.74 overall, varying between $0.63 and $0.94 in the five zones. Overall, the number needed to treat to avert one death was 1,213 children; the cost per death averted was $898.47, and the cost per DALY averted was $9.98. In the three zones where mortality was lower in azithromycin-treated clusters, the number needed to treat to avert one death, cost per death averted, and cost per DALY averted, respectively, were as follows: 3,070, $2,899.24, and $32.31 in Monkey Bay zone; 1,530, $1,214.42, and $13.49 in Chilipa zone; and 344, $217.98, and $2.42 in Namwera zone. This study is a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis that indicates azithromycin MDA for reducing child mortality has the potential to be highly cost-effective in some settings in Malawi, but the reasons for geographical variation in effectiveness require further investigation.

Effectiveness of expanding annual mass azithromycin distribution treatment coverage for trachoma in Niger: a cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The WHO recommends 3-5 years of annual mass azithromycin distribution with at least 80% treatment coverage to districts with active trachoma prevalence over 10% among children. Here, we assess the efficacy of expanding the coverage target to at least 90% for trachoma control in a mesoendemic region of Niger. METHODS: Twenty-four communities were randomised to a single day of azithromycin distribution with a coverage target of 80% of the community or up to 4 days of treatment, aiming for greater than 90% coverage. Distributions were annual and individuals above 6 months of age were treated. Children under 5 years of age were monitored for ocular chlamydia infection and active trachoma. RESULTS: At baseline, ocular chlamydia prevalence was 20.5% (95% CI 9.8% to 31.2%) in the standard coverage arm and 21.9% (95% CI 11.3% to 32.5%) in the enhanced coverage arm, which reduced to 4.6% (95% CI 0% to 9.5%, p=0.008) and 7.1% (95% CI 2.7% to 11.4%, p<0.001) at 36 months, respectively. There was no significant difference in 36-month ocular chlamydia prevalence between the two arms (p=0.21). There was no difference in the rate of decline in ocular chlamydia between the two arms in a repeated measures model (p=0.80). CONCLUSIONS: For annual mass azithromycin distribution programme to an entire community, there may be no additional benefit of increasing antibiotic coverage above the WHO's 80% target. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00792922, post-results.

Population-based prevalence survey of follicular trachoma and trachomatous trichiasis in the Casamance region of Senegal.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma, caused by ocular infection with Chlamydia trachomatis, is the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide. We conducted the first population-based trachoma prevalence survey in the Casamance region of Senegal to enable the Senegalese National Eye Care Programme (NECP) to plan its trachoma control activities. The World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines state that any individual with trachomatous trichiasis (TT) should be offered surgery, but that surgery should be prioritised where the prevalence is >0.1%, and that districts and communities with a trachomatous inflammation, follicular (TF) prevalence of ≥10% in 1-9 year-olds should receive mass antibiotic treatment annually for a minimum of three years, along with hygiene promotion and environmental improvement, before re-assessing the prevalence to determine whether treatment can be discontinued (when TF prevalence in 1-9 year-olds falls <5%). METHODS: Local healthcare workers conducted a population-based household survey in four districts of the Bignona Department of Casamance region to estimate the prevalence of TF in 1-9 year-olds, and TT in ≥15 year-olds. Children's facial cleanliness (ocular and/or nasal discharge, dirt on the face, flies on the face) was measured at time of examination. Risk factor questionnaires were completed at the household level. RESULTS: Sixty communities participated with a total censused population of 5580 individuals. The cluster-, age- and sex-adjusted estimated prevalence of TF in 1-9 year-olds was 2.5% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.8-3.6) (38/1425) at the regional level and <5% in all districts, although the upper 95%CI exceeded 5% in all but one district. The prevalence of TT in those aged ≥15 years was estimated to be 1.4% (95%CI 1.0-1.9) (40/2744) at the regional level and >1% in all districts. CONCLUSION: With a prevalence <5%, TF does not appear to be a significant public health problem in this region. However, TF monitoring and surveillance at sub-district level will be required to ensure that elimination targets are sustained and that TF does not re-emerge as a public health problem. TT surgery remains the priority for trachoma elimination efforts in the region, with an estimated 1819 TT surgeries to conduct.

Assessment of transmission in trachoma programs over time suggests no short-term loss of immunity.

Trachoma programs have dramatically reduced the prevalence of the ocular chlamydia that cause the disease. Some have hypothesized that immunity to the infection may be reduced because of program success in reducing the incidence of infection, and transmission may then increase. Longitudinal studies of multiple communities would be necessary to test this hypothesis. Here, we quantify transmission using an estimated basic reproduction number based on 32 communities during the first, second, and third years of an antibiotic treatment program. We found that there is little to no increase in the basic reproduction number over time. The estimated linear trend in the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], was found to be -0.025 per year, 95% CI -0.167 to 0.117 per year. We are unable to find evidence supporting any loss of immunity over the course of a 3-year program. This is encouraging, as it allows the possibility that repeated mass antibiotic distributions may eliminate infection from even the most severely affected areas.

Using a nonparametric multilevel latent Markov model to evaluate diagnostics for trachoma.

In disease control or elimination programs, diagnostics are essential for assessing the impact of interventions, refining treatment strategies, and minimizing the waste of scarce resources. Although high-performance tests are desirable, increased accuracy is frequently accompanied by a requirement for more elaborate infrastructure, which is often not feasible in the developing world. These challenges are pertinent to mapping, impact monitoring, and surveillance in trachoma elimination programs. To help inform rational design of diagnostics for trachoma elimination, we outline a nonparametric multilevel latent Markov modeling approach and apply it to 2 longitudinal cohort studies of trachoma-endemic communities in Tanzania (2000-2002) and The Gambia (2001-2002) to provide simultaneous inferences about the true population prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and disease and the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of 3 diagnostic tests for C. trachomatis infection. Estimates were obtained by using data collected before and after mass azithromycin administration. Such estimates are particularly important for trachoma because of the absence of a true "gold standard" diagnostic test for C. trachomatis. Estimated transition probabilities provide useful insights into key epidemiologic questions about the persistence of disease and the clearance of infection as well as the required frequency of surveillance in the post-elimination setting.

Targeting antibiotics to households for trachoma control.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) is part of the current trachoma control strategy, but it can be costly and results in many uninfected individuals receiving treatment. Here we explore whether alternative, targeted approaches are effective antibiotic-sparing strategies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analysed data on the prevalence of ocular infection with Chlamydia trachomatis and of active trachoma disease among 4,436 individuals from two communities in The Gambia (West Africa) and two communities in Tanzania (East Africa). An age- and household-structured mathematical model of transmission was fitted to these data using maximum likelihood. The presence of active inflammatory disease as a marker of infection in a household was, in general, significantly more sensitive (between 79% [95%CI: 60%-92%] and 86% [71%-95%] across the four communities) than as a marker of infection in an individual (24% [16%-33%]-66% [56%-76%]). Model simulations, under the best fit models for each community, showed that targeting treatment to households has the potential to be as effective as and significantly more cost-effective than mass treatment when antibiotics are not donated. The cost (2007US$) per incident infection averted ranged from 1.5 to 3.1 for MDA, from 1.0 to 1.7 for household-targeted treatment assuming equivalent coverage, and from 0.4 to 1.7 if household visits increased treatment coverage to 100% in selected households. Assuming antibiotics were donated, MDA was predicted to be more cost-effective unless opportunity costs incurred by individuals collecting antibiotics were included or household visits improved treatment uptake. Limiting MDA to children was not as effective in reducing infection as the other aforementioned distribution strategies. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our model suggests that targeting antibiotics to households with active trachoma has the potential to be a cost-effective trachoma control measure, but further work is required to assess if costs can be reduced and to what extent the approach can increase the treatment coverage of infected individuals compared to MDA in different settings.

Epidemiology and control of trachoma: systematic review.

Trachoma is the commonest infectious cause of blindness. Recurrent episodes of infection with serovars A-C of Chlamydia trachomatis cause conjunctival inflammation in children who go on to develop scarring and blindness as adults. It was estimated that in 2002 at least 1.3 million people were blind from trachoma, and currently 40 million people are thought to have active disease and 8.2 million to have trichiasis. The disease is largely found in poor, rural communities in developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The WHO promotes trachoma control through a multifaceted approach involving surgery, mass antibiotic distribution, encouraging facial cleanliness and environmental improvements. This has been associated with significant reductions in the prevalence of active disease over the past 20 years, but there remain a large number of people with trichiasis who are at risk of blindness.

The natural history of trachoma infection and disease in a Gambian cohort with frequent follow-up.

BACKGROUND: The natural history of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infections in endemic communities has not been well characterised and is an important determinant of the effectiveness of different mass treatment strategies to prevent blindness due to trachoma. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A multistate hidden Markov model was fitted to data on infection and active disease from 256 untreated villagers in The Gambia who were examined every 2 weeks over a 6-month period. Parameters defining the natural history of trachoma were estimated, and associations between these parameters, demographic and baseline immune measurements examined. The median incubation period following infection was estimated at 17 days (95% confidence interval: 11-28). Disease persisted for longer than infection (median 21 (15-32) weeks) versus 17 (12-24) weeks), with an estimated median duration of post-infection inflammation of 5 (3-8) weeks. The duration of active disease showed a significant decline with age even after accounting for lower rates of re-infection and disease at older ages (p = 0.004). Measurements of levels of baseline IgA to epitopes in the major outer membrane protein of Chlamydia trachomatis were not significantly correlated with protection or more rapid clearance of infection. CONCLUSIONS: The average duration of infection with Chlamydia trachomatis especially at younger ages is long. This contributes to the persistence and gradual return of trachoma after community-wide treatment with antibiotics.

Which members of a community need antibiotics to control trachoma? Conjunctival Chlamydia trachomatis infection load in Gambian villages.

PURPOSE: Trachoma is the leading cause of infectious blindness worldwide. Control strategies target antibiotic therapy to individuals likely to be infected with Chlamydia trachomatis on the basis of clinical signs. However, many studies have found chlamydial infection in the absence of clinical disease. It has been unclear whether such individuals represent a significant reservoir of infection. In the current study, a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was used to investigate the distribution and determinants of chlamydial infection load in an endemic community, and the findings were used to evaluate the potential effectiveness of different control strategies. METHODS: Members of a trachoma-endemic community (n = 1319) in a rural area of The Gambia were examined for signs of disease, and tarsal conjunctival swab samples were collected. C. trachomatis was initially detected by qualitative PCR. The load of infection was then estimated by real-time quantitative PCR. RESULTS: Chlamydial infection was detected in 7.2% of the population. The distribution of infection load was skewed, with a few individuals having high loads. Only 24% of infected individuals had signs of active trachoma. Infection loads were higher in those with clinically active disease and were highest among those with severe inflammatory trachoma. High infection loads were associated with having no accessible latrine and living with a person with active disease. CONCLUSIONS: In this low-prevalence setting, infected individuals without signs of active trachoma constitute a significant reservoir of infection. Treatment of a defined unit of people who live with someone with clinically active trachoma would effectively target antibiotic treatment to infected people without signs of disease.