RESUMO
Risk dynamic early warning is of great importance for financing risk decision-making. Intellectual property (IP) pledge financing is an effective way to alleviate the financial difficulties for technologically small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It is very important to study the financing risk decision-making because of its higher risk compared with other mortgage loans. Based on Kalman filter, we establish the pledge financing risk decision-making model and extract the key variables affecting financing risk by principal component analysis. We test the model with 88 listed SMEs. The results show that the average error between the predicted and the real values is 8.5% and the overall recognition accuracy of the model is 89.1%. The risk decision-making model has high discriminant accuracy and can provide evidence to risk decision-making.