Mortality Effects of Hypothetical Interventions on Physical Activity and TV Viewing.

INTRODUCTION: Long-term effects of physical activity and television (TV) viewing on mortality have been inferred from observational studies. The associations observed do not allow for inferences about the effects of population interventions and could be subject to bias due to time-varying confounding. METHODS: Using data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study, collected in 1999-2000 (T0), 2004-2005 (T1), and 2011-2012 (T2), we applied the parametric g-formula to estimate cumulative risks of death under hypothetical interventions on physical activity and/or TV viewing determined from self-report while adjusting for time-varying confounding. RESULTS: In the 6377 participants followed up for 13 yr from 2004 to 2005 to death or censoring in 2017, 781 participants died. The observed cumulative risk of death was 12.2%. The most effective hypothetical intervention was to increase weekly physical activity to >300 min (risk ratio (RR), 0.66 (0.46-0.86) compared with a "worst-case" scenario; RR, 0.83 (0.73-0.94) compared with no intervention). Reducing daily TV viewing to <2 h in addition to physical activity interventions did not show added survival benefits. Reducing TV viewing alone was least effective in reducing mortality (RR, 0.85 (0.60-1.10) compared with the worst-case scenario; RR, 1.06 (0.93-1.20) compared with no intervention). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggested that sustained interventions to increase physical activity could lower all-cause mortality over a 13-yr period, and there might be limited gain from intervening to reduce TV viewing time in a relatively healthy population.

Social and economic factors, maternal behaviours in pregnancy and neonatal adiposity in the PANDORA cohort.

BACKGROUND: Australian Indigenous women experience high rates of social disadvantage and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in pregnancy, but it is not known how social factors and maternal behaviours impact neonatal adiposity in offspring of women with hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. METHODS: Participants were Indigenous (n = 404) and Europid (n = 240) women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or T2D in pregnancy and their offspring in the Pregnancy and Neonatal Diabetes Outcomes in Remote Australia (PANDORA) study. Social, economic factors, and maternal behaviours were measured in pregnancy and six neonatal anthropometric outcomes were examined after birth. RESULTS: On univariate analysis, maternal education < 12 years (p = 0.03), unemployment (p = 0.001), welfare income vs no welfare income (p = 0.001), lower area based socio-economic score (p < 0.001), and fast food intake > 2 times/week (p = 0.002) were associated with increased sum of skinfolds (SSF) in offspring. Smoking was significantly associated with a reduction in anthropometric measures, except SSF. In multivariable models adjusted for ethnicity, BMI and hyperglycaemia, social and economic factors were no longer significant predictors of neonatal outcomes. Smoking was independently associated with a reduction in length, head circumference and fat free mass. Frequent fast food intake remained independently associated with SSF (ß-coefficient 1.08 mm, p = 0.02). CONCLUSION: In women with hyperglycaemia in pregnancy, social factors were associated with neonatal adiposity, particularly skinfold measures. Promoting smoking cessation and limited intake of energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods in pregnancy are important to improve neonatal adiposity and lean mass outcomes. Addressing inequities in social and economic factors are likely to be important, particularly for Indigenous women or women experiencing social disadvantage.

Trends in incidence of total or type 2 diabetes: systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To assess what proportions of studies reported increasing, stable, or declining trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes. DESIGN: Systematic review of studies reporting trends of diabetes incidence in adults from 1980 to 2017 according to PRISMA guidelines. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant publications. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies of open population based cohorts, diabetes registries, and administrative and health insurance databases on secular trends in the incidence of total diabetes or type 2 diabetes in adults were included. Poisson regression was used to model data by age group and year. RESULTS: Among the 22 833 screened abstracts, 47 studies were included, providing data on 121 separate sex specific or ethnicity specific populations; 42 (89%) of the included studies reported on diagnosed diabetes. In 1960-89, 36% (8/22) of the populations studied had increasing trends in incidence of diabetes, 55% (12/22) had stable trends, and 9% (2/22) had decreasing trends. In 1990-2005, diabetes incidence increased in 66% (33/50) of populations, was stable in 32% (16/50), and decreased in 2% (1/50). In 2006-14, increasing trends were reported in only 33% (11/33) of populations, whereas 30% (10/33) and 36% (12/33) had stable or declining incidence, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has continued to rise in only a minority of populations studied since 2006, with over a third of populations having a fall in incidence in this time period. Preventive strategies could have contributed to the fall in diabetes incidence in recent years. Data are limited in low and middle income countries, where trends in diabetes incidence could be different. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Prospero CRD42018092287.

Diabetes mellitus prevalence is increasing in South Asians but is stable in Chinese living in Singapore and Mauritius.

BACKGROUND: Asia is experiencing a type 2 diabetes epidemic, but prevalence differs by ethnicity and level of socioeconomic development. Singapore and Mauritius have implemented comprehensive campaigns to address this public health problem. We compared diabetes and obesity prevalence trends among Chinese and South Asians living in Singapore and Mauritius to determine the contribution of ethnicity and economic development to diabetes. METHODS: Age-specific data from serial national population-based surveys in Singapore and Mauritius between 1987 and 2010 were used to estimate age-standardized diabetes and obesity prevalence. Modified Breslow-Cox proportional hazard models were used to obtain rate ratios for diabetes risk factors. RESULTS: In Singapore, the age-standardized prevalence of diabetes remained stable for Chinese (men: 14% in 1992, 13% in 2010; women: 12% in 1992, 10% in 2010), but increases were observed for South Asians (men: 20% in 1992, 26% in 2010; women: 18% in 1992, 20% in 2010). There were similar patterns in Mauritius. In both countries, obesity prevalence trends were stable for Chinese women, but increased for Chinese men and South Asians. Associations between obesity and diabetes were stronger in Chinese than South Asians regardless of country. CONCLUSIONS: Despite different socioeconomic settings in Singapore and Mauritius, we observed rising diabetes prevalence among South Asians but stable prevalence in Chinese in both countries. This provides further evidence that ethnicity contributes to the development of diabetes, and that there should be an increased emphasis on future prevention strategies targeting South Asian populations in these countries.