Cost-effectiveness of Improved WIC Food Package for Preventing Childhood Obesity.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) prevents food insecurity and supports nutrition for more than 3 million low-income young children. Our objectives were to determine the cost-effectiveness of changes to WIC's nutrition standards in 2009 for preventing obesity and to estimate impacts on socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to estimate impacts from 2010 through 2019 of the 2009 WIC food package change on obesity risk for children aged 2 to 4 years participating in WIC. Microsimulation models estimated the cases of obesity prevented in 2019 and costs per quality-adjusted-life year gained. RESULTS: An estimated 14.0 million 2- to 4-year old US children (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.7-14.2 million) were reached by the updated WIC nutrition standards from 2010 through 2019. In 2019, an estimated 62 700 (95% UI, 53 900-71 100) cases of childhood obesity were prevented, entirely among children from households with low incomes, leading to improved health equity. The update was estimated to cost $10 600 per quality-adjusted-life year gained (95% UI, $9760-$11 700). If WIC had reached all eligible children, more than twice as many cases of childhood obesity would have been prevented. CONCLUSIONS: Updates to WIC's nutrition standards for young children in 2009 were estimated to be highly cost-effective for preventing childhood obesity and contributed to reducing socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities in obesity prevalence. Improving nutrition policies for young children can be a sound public health investment; future research should explore how to improve access to them.

Cost Effectiveness of Calorie Labeling at Large Fast-Food Chains Across the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Calorie labeling of standard menu items has been implemented at large restaurant chains across the U.S. since 2018. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of calorie labeling at large U.S. fast-food chains. METHODS: This study evaluated the national implementation of calorie labeling at large fast-food chains from a modified societal perspective and projected its cost effectiveness over a 10-year period (2018-2027) using the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model. Using evidence from over 67 million fast-food restaurant transactions between 2015 and 2019, the impact of calorie labeling on calorie consumption and obesity incidence was projected. Benefits were estimated across all racial, ethnic, and income groups. Analyses were performed in 2022. RESULTS: Calorie labeling is estimated to be cost saving; prevent 550,000 cases of obesity in 2027 alone (95% uncertainty interval=518,000; 586,000), including 41,500 (95% uncertainty interval=33,700; 50,800) cases of childhood obesity; and save $22.60 in healthcare costs for every $1 spent by society in implementation costs. Calorie labeling is also projected to prevent cases of obesity across all racial and ethnic groups (range between 126 and 185 cases per 100,000 people) and all income groups (range between 152 and 186 cases per 100,000 people). CONCLUSIONS: Calorie labeling at large fast-food chains is estimated to be a cost-saving intervention to improve long-term population health. Calorie labeling is a low-cost intervention that is already implemented across the U.S. in large chain restaurants.

A Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax in California: Projected Benefits for Population Obesity and Health Equity.

INTRODUCTION: Amid the successes of local sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes, interest in state-wide policies has grown. This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of a hypothetical 2-cent-per-ounce excise tax in California and its implications for population health and health equity. METHODS: Using the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model, tax impacts on health, health equity, and cost effectiveness over 10 years in California were projected, both overall and stratified by race/ethnicity and income. Expanding on previous models, differences in the effect of intake of SSBs on weight by BMI category were incorporated. Costing was performed in 2020, and analyses were conducted in 2021-2022. RESULTS: The tax is projected to save $4.55 billion in healthcare costs, prevent 266,000 obesity cases in 2032, and gain 114,000 quality-adjusted life years. Cost-effectiveness metrics, including cost/quality-adjusted life year gained, were cost saving. Spending on SSBs was projected to decrease by $33 per adult and $26 per child overall in the first year. Reductions in obesity prevalence for Black and Hispanic Californians were 1.8 times larger than for White Californians, and reductions for adults with lowest incomes (<130% Federal Poverty Level) were 1.4 times the reduction among those with highest incomes (>350% Federal Poverty Level). The tax is projected to save $112 in obesity-related healthcare costs per $1 invested. CONCLUSIONS: A state-wide SSB tax in California would be cost saving, lead to reductions in obesity and improvement in SSB-related health equity, and lead to overall improvements in population health. The policy would generate more than $1.6 billion in state tax revenue annually that can also be used to improve health equity.

Prioritising cardiovascular disease risk assessment to high risk individuals based on primary care records.

OBJECTIVE: To provide quantitative evidence for systematically prioritising individuals for full formal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment using primary care records with a novel tool (eHEART) with age- and sex- specific risk thresholds. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: eHEART was derived using landmark Cox models for incident CVD with repeated measures of conventional CVD risk predictors in 1,642,498 individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Using 119,137 individuals from UK Biobank, we modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy using eHEART with age- and sex-specific prioritisation thresholds corresponding to 5% false negative rates to prioritise adults aged 40-69 years in a population in England for invitation to a formal CVD risk assessment. RESULTS: Formal CVD risk assessment on all adults would identify 76% and 49% of future CVD events amongst men and women respectively, and 93 (95% CI: 90, 95) men and 279 (95% CI: 259, 297) women would need to be screened (NNS) to prevent one CVD event. In contrast, if eHEART was first used to prioritise individuals for formal CVD risk assessment, we would identify 73% and 47% of future events amongst men and women respectively, and a NNS of 75 (95% CI: 72, 77) men and 162 (95% CI: 150, 172) women. Replacing the age- and sex-specific prioritisation thresholds with a 10% threshold identify around 10% less events. CONCLUSIONS: The use of prioritisation tools with age- and sex-specific thresholds could lead to more efficient CVD assessment programmes with only small reductions in effectiveness at preventing new CVD events.

The societal costs and health impacts on obesity of BMI report cards in US schools.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the 10-year cost-effectiveness of school-based BMI report cards, a commonly implemented program for childhood obesity prevention in the US where student BMI is reported to parents/guardians by letter with nutrition and physical activity resources, for students in grades 3 to 7. METHODS: A microsimulation model, using data inputs from evidence reviews on health impacts and costs, estimated: how many students would be reached if the 15 states currently measuring student BMI (but not reporting to parents/guardians) implemented BMI report cards from 2023 to 2032; how many cases of childhood obesity would be prevented; expected changes in childhood obesity prevalence; and costs to society. RESULTS: BMI report cards were projected to reach 8.3 million children with overweight or obesity (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 7.7-8.9 million) but were not projected to prevent any cases of childhood obesity or significantly decrease childhood obesity prevalence. Ten-year costs totaled $210 million (95% UI: $30.5-$408 million) or $3.33 per child per year with overweight or obesity (95% UI: $3.11-$3.68). CONCLUSIONS: School-based BMI report cards are not cost-effective childhood obesity interventions. Deimplementation should be considered to free up resources for implementing effective programs.

Using Polygenic Risk Scores for Prioritizing Individuals at Greatest Need of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment.

Background The aim of this study was to provide quantitative evidence of the use of polygenic risk scores for systematically identifying individuals for invitation for full formal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment. Methods and Results A total of 108 685 participants aged 40 to 69 years, with measured biomarkers, linked primary care records, and genetic data in UK Biobank were used for model derivation and population health modeling. Prioritization tools using age, polygenic risk scores for coronary artery disease and stroke, and conventional risk factors for CVD available within longitudinal primary care records were derived using sex-specific Cox models. We modeled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy after prioritizing individuals for invitation to a formal CVD risk assessment. If primary care records were used to prioritize individuals for formal risk assessment using age- and sex-specific thresholds corresponding to 5% false-negative rates, then the numbers of men and women needed to be screened to prevent 1 CVD event are 149 and 280, respectively. In contrast, adding polygenic risk scores to both prioritization and formal assessments, and selecting thresholds to capture the same number of events, resulted in a number needed to screen of 116 for men and 180 for women. Conclusions Using both polygenic risk scores and primary care records to prioritize individuals at highest risk of a CVD event for a formal CVD risk assessment can efficiently prioritize those who need interventions the most than using primary care records alone. This could lead to better allocation of resources by reducing the number of risk assessments in primary care while still preventing the same number of CVD events.

Use of Evidence-Based Interventions to Promote Healthy Weight, Nutrition, and Physical Activity in Community Health Improvement Plans from Large Local Health Departments.

We sought to identify evidence-based healthy weight, nutrition, and physical activity strategies related to obesity prevention in large local health department (LHD) Community Health Improvement Plans (CHIPs). We analyzed the content of the most recent, publicly available plans from 72 accredited LHDs serving a population of at least 500 000 people. We matched CHIP strategies to the County Health Rankings and Roadmaps' What Works for Health (WWFH) database of interventions. We identified 739 strategies across 55 plans, 62.5% of which matched a "WWFH intervention" rated for effectiveness on diet and exercise outcomes. Among the 20 most commonly identified WWFH interventions in CHIPs, 10 had the highest evidence for effectiveness while 4 were rated as likely to decrease health disparities according to WWFH. Future prioritization of strategies by health agencies could focus on strategies with the strongest evidence for promoting healthy weight, nutrition, and physical activity outcomes and reducing health disparities.

Incremental value of risk factor variability for cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with type 2 diabetes: results from UK primary care electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models for individuals with type 2 diabetes are important tools to guide intensification of interventions for CVD prevention. We aimed to assess the added value of incorporating risk factors variability in CVD risk prediction for people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We used electronic health records (EHRs) data from 83 910 adults with type 2 diabetes but without pre-existing CVD from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink for 2004-2017. Using a landmark-modelling approach, we developed and validated sex-specific Cox models, incorporating conventional predictors and trajectories plus variability of systolic blood pressure (SBP), total and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c). Such models were compared against simpler models using single last observed values or means. RESULTS: The standard deviations (SDs) of SBP, HDL cholesterol and HbA1c were associated with higher CVD risk (P < 0.05). Models incorporating trajectories and variability of continuous predictors demonstrated improvement in risk discrimination (C-index = 0.659, 95% CI: 0.654-0.663) as compared with using last observed values (C-index = 0.651, 95% CI: 0.646-0.656) or means (C-index = 0.650, 95% CI: 0.645-0.655). Inclusion of SDs of SBP yielded the greatest improvement in discrimination (C-index increase = 0.005, 95% CI: 0.004-0.007) in comparison to incorporating SDs of total cholesterol (C-index increase = 0.002, 95% CI: 0.000-0.003), HbA1c (C-index increase = 0.002, 95% CI: 0.000-0.003) or HDL cholesterol (C-index increase= 0.003, 95% CI: 0.002-0.005). CONCLUSION: Incorporating variability of predictors from EHRs provides a modest improvement in CVD risk discrimination for individuals with type 2 diabetes. Given that repeat measures are readily available in EHRs especially for regularly monitored patients with diabetes, this improvement could easily be achieved.

Imputation Strategies Under Clinical Presence: Impact on Algorithmic Fairness.

Biases have marked medical history, leading to unequal care affecting marginalised groups. The patterns of missingness in observational data often reflect these group discrepancies, but the algorithmic fairness implications of group-specific missingness are not well understood. Despite its potential impact, imputation is too often an overlooked preprocessing step. When explicitly considered, attention is placed on overall performance, ignoring how this preprocessing can reinforce groupspecific inequities. Our work questions this choice by studying how imputation affects downstream algorithmic fairness. First, we provide a structured view of the relationship between clinical presence mechanisms and groupspecific missingness patterns. Then, through simulations and real-world experiments, we demonstrate that the imputation choice influences marginalised group performance and that no imputation strategy consistently reduces disparities. Importantly, our results show that current practices may endanger health equity as similarly performing imputation strategies at the population level can affect marginalised groups differently. Finally, we propose recommendations for mitigating inequities that may stem from a neglected step of the machine learning pipeline.

Limiting Television to Reduce Childhood Obesity: Cost-Effectiveness of Five Population Strategies.

Objective: To quantify the potential population-wide costs, number of individuals reached, and impact on obesity of five effective interventions to reduce children's television viewing if implemented nationally. Study Design: Utilizing evidence from systematic reviews, the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES) microsimulation model estimated the cost, population reach, and impact on childhood obesity from 2020 to 2030 of five hypothetical policy strategies to reduce the negative impact of children's TV exposure: (1) eliminating the tax deductibility of food and beverage advertising; (2) targeting TV reduction during home visiting programs; (3) motivational interviewing to reduce home television time at Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) clinic visits; (4) adoption of a television-reduction curriculum in child care; and (5) limiting noneducational television in licensed child care settings. Results: Eliminating the tax deductibility of food advertising could reach the most children [106 million, 95% uncertainty interval (UI): 105-107 million], prevent the most cases of obesity (78,700, 95% UI: 30,200-130,000), and save more in health care costs than it costs to implement. Strategies targeting young children in child care and WIC also cost little to implement (between $0.19 and $32.73 per child reached), and, although reaching fewer children because of the restricted age range, were estimated to prevent between 25,500 (95% UI: 4600-59,300) and 35,400 (95% UI: 13,200-62,100) cases of obesity. Home visiting to reduce television viewing had high costs and a low reach. Conclusions: Interventions to reduce television exposure across a range of settings, if implemented widely, could help prevent childhood obesity in the population at relatively low cost.

Explaining the Sex Effect on Survival in Cystic Fibrosis: a Joint Modeling Study of UK Registry Data.

BACKGROUND: Male sex is associated with better lung function and survival in people with cystic fibrosis but it is unclear whether the survival benefit is solely due to the sex-effect on lung function. METHODS: This study analyzes data between 1996 and 2015 from the longitudinal registry study of the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry. We jointly analyze repeated measurements and time-to-event outcomes to assess how much of the sex effect on lung function also explains survival. These novel methods allow examination of association between percent of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (%FEV1) and covariates such as sex and genotype, and survival, in the same modeling framework. We estimate the probability of surviving one more year with a probit model. RESULTS: The dataset includes 81,129 lung function measurements of %FEV1 on 9,741 patients seen between 1996 and 2015 and captures 1,543 deaths. Males compared with females experienced a more gradual decline in %FEV1 (difference 0.11 per year 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.08, 0.14). After adjusting for confounders, both overall level of %FEV1 and %FEV1 rate of change are associated with the concurrent hazard for death. There was evidence of a male survival advantage (probit coefficient 0.15; 95% CI = 0.10, 0.19) which changed little after adjustment for %FEV1 using conventional approaches but was attenuated by 37% on adjustment for %FEV1 level and slope in the joint model (0.09; 95% CI = 0.06, 0.12). CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that about 37% of the association of sex on survival in cystic fibrosis is mediated through lung function.

Mixed-effects models for health care longitudinal data with an informative visiting process: A Monte Carlo simulation study.

Electronic health records are being increasingly used in medical research to answer more relevant and detailed clinical questions; however, they pose new and significant methodological challenges. For instance, observation times are likely correlated with the underlying disease severity: Patients with worse conditions utilise health care more and may have worse biomarker values recorded. Traditional methods for analysing longitudinal data assume independence between observation times and disease severity; yet, with health care data, such assumptions unlikely hold. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we compare different analytical approaches proposed to account for an informative visiting process to assess whether they lead to unbiased results. Furthermore, we formalise a joint model for the observation process and the longitudinal outcome within an extended joint modelling framework. We illustrate our results using data from a pragmatic trial on enhanced care for individuals with chronic kidney disease, and we introduce user-friendly software that can be used to fit the joint model for the observation process and a longitudinal outcome.

Cost-Effectiveness of Water Promotion Strategies in Schools for Preventing Childhood Obesity and Increasing Water Intake.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness and impact on childhood obesity of installation of chilled water dispensers ("water jets") on school lunch lines and to compare water jets' cost, reach, and impact on water consumption with three additional strategies. METHODS: The Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study(CHOICES) microsimulation model estimated the cost-effectiveness of water jets on US childhood obesity cases prevented in 2025. Also estimated were the cost, number of children reached, and impact on water consumption of the installation of water jets and three other strategies. RESULTS: Installing water jets on school lunch lines was projected to reach 29.6 million children (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 29.4 million-29.8 million), cost $4.25 (95% UI: $2.74-$5.69) per child, prevent 179,550 cases of childhood obesity in 2025 (95% UI: 101,970-257,870), and save $0.31 in health care costs per dollar invested (95% UI: $0.15-$0.55). In the secondary analysis, installing cup dispensers next to existing water fountains was the least costly but also had the lowest population reach. CONCLUSIONS: Installating water jet dispensers on school lunch lines could also save almost half of the dollars needed for implementation via a reduction in obesity-related health care costs. School-based interventions to promote drinking water may be relatively inexpensive strategies for improving child health.

The UK EndoVascular Aneurysm Repair (EVAR) randomised controlled trials: long-term follow-up and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Short-term survival benefits of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) compared with open repair (OR) of intact abdominal aortic aneurysms have been shown in randomised trials, but this early survival benefit is soon lost. Survival benefit of EVAR was unclear at follow-up to 10 years. OBJECTIVE: To assess the long-term efficacy of EVAR against OR in patients deemed fit and suitable for both procedures (EVAR trial 1; EVAR-1); and against no intervention in patients unfit for OR (EVAR trial 2; EVAR-2). To appraise the long-term significance of type II endoleak and define criteria for intervention. DESIGN: Two national, multicentre randomised controlled trials: EVAR-1 and EVAR-2. SETTING: Patients were recruited from 37 hospitals in the UK between 1 September 1999 and 31 August 2004. PARTICIPANTS: Men and women aged ≥ 60 years with an aneurysm of ≥ 5.5 cm (as identified by computed tomography scanning), anatomically suitable and fit for OR were randomly assigned 1 : 1 to either EVAR (n = 626) or OR (n = 626) in EVAR-1 using computer-generated sequences at the trial hub. Patients considered unfit were randomly assigned to EVAR (n = 197) or no intervention (n = 207) in EVAR-2. There was no blinding. INTERVENTIONS: EVAR, OR or no intervention. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary end points were total and aneurysm-related mortality until mid-2015 for both trials. Secondary outcomes for EVAR-1 were reinterventions, costs and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: In EVAR-1, over a mean of 12.7 years (standard deviation 1.5 years; maximum 15.8 years), we recorded 9.3 deaths per 100 person-years in the EVAR group and 8.9 deaths per 100 person-years in the OR group [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97 to 1.27; p = 0.14]. At 0-6 months after randomisation, patients in the EVAR group had a lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.37 to 1.02 for total mortality; HR 0.47, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.93 for aneurysm-related mortality; p = 0.031), but beyond 8 years of follow-up patients in the OR group had a significantly lower mortality (adjusted HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.56, p = 0.048 for total mortality; HR 5.82, 95% CI 1.64 to 20.65, p = 0.0064 for aneurysm-related mortality). The increased aneurysm-related mortality in the EVAR group after 8 years was mainly attributable to secondary aneurysm sac rupture, with increased cancer mortality also observed in the EVAR group. Overall, aneurysm reintervention rates were higher in the EVAR group than in the OR group, 4.1 and 1.7 per 100 person-years, respectively (p < 0.001), with reinterventions occurring throughout follow-up. The mean difference in costs over 14 years was £3798 (95% CI £2338 to £5258). Economic modelling based on the outcomes of the EVAR-1 trial showed that the cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained over the patient's lifetime exceeds conventional thresholds used in the UK. In EVAR-2, patients died at the same rate in both groups, but there was suggestion of lower aneurysm mortality in those who actually underwent EVAR. Type II endoleak itself is not associated with a higher rate of mortality. LIMITATIONS: Devices used were implanted between 1999 and 2004. Newer devices might have better results. Later follow-up imaging declined, particularly for OR patients. Methodology to capture reinterventions changed mainly to record linkage through the Hospital Episode Statistics administrative data set from 2009. CONCLUSIONS: EVAR has an early survival benefit but an inferior late survival benefit compared with OR, which needs to be addressed by lifelong surveillance of EVAR and reintervention if necessary. EVAR does not prolong life in patients unfit for OR. Type II endoleak alone is relatively benign. FUTURE WORK: To find easier ways to monitor sac expansion to trigger timely reintervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN55703451. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and the results will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Driven to Support: Individual- and County-Level Factors Associated With Public Support for Active Transportation Policies.

PURPOSE: To assess predictors of stated support for policies promoting physically active transportation. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: US counties selected on county-level physical activity and obesity health status. PARTICIPANTS: Participants completing random-digit dialed telephone survey (n = 906). MEASURES: Survey measures assessed stated support for 5 policies to promote physically active transportation, access to active transportation facilities, and time spent in a car. County-level estimates included household car dependence and funding for bicycle-pedestrian projects. ANALYSIS: Multivariable generalized linear mixed models using binary distribution and logit link, accounting for clustering within county. RESULTS: Respondents supported policies for accommodating bicyclists and pedestrians through street improvements (89%), school active transportation programs (75%), employer-funded active commuting incentives (67%), and allocation of public funding (68%) and tax support (56%) for building and maintaining public transit. Residents spending >2 h/d (vs <0.7 hours) in cars were more likely to support street (odds ratio [OR]: 1.87; confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-3.22) and public transit (OR: 1.85; CI: 1.24-2.77) improvements. Residents in counties investing >$1.6 million in bicycle and pedestrian improvements expressed greater support for funding (OR: 1.71; CI: 1.04-2.83) and tax increases (OR: 1.73; CI: 1.08-2.75) for transit improvements compared to those with lower prior investments (<$276 100). CONCLUSION: Support for policies to enable active transportation is higher where relevant investments in active transportation infrastructure are large (>$1.6 M), public transit is nearby, and respondents drive >2 h/d.

Using cost-effectiveness analysis to prioritize policy and programmatic approaches to physical activity promotion and obesity prevention in childhood.

Participation in recommended levels of physical activity promotes a healthy body weight and reduced chronic disease risk. To inform investment in prevention initiatives, we simulate the national implementation, impact on physical activity and childhood obesity and associated cost-effectiveness (versus the status quo) of six recommended strategies that can be applied throughout childhood to increase physical activity in US school, afterschool and childcare settings. In 2016, the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES) systematic review process identified six interventions for study. A microsimulation model estimated intervention outcomes 2015-2025 including changes in mean MET-hours/day, intervention reach and cost per person, cost per MET-hour change, ten-year net costs to society and cases of childhood obesity prevented. First year reach of the interventions ranged from 90,000 youth attending a Healthy Afterschool Program to 31.3 million youth reached by Active School Day policies. Mean MET-hour/day/person increases ranged from 0.05 MET-hour/day/person for Active PE and Healthy Afterschool to 1.29 MET-hour/day/person for the implementation of New Afterschool Programs. Cost per MET-hour change ranged from cost saving to $3.14. Approximately 2500 to 110,000 cases of children with obesity could be prevented depending on the intervention implemented. All of the six interventions are estimated to increase physical activity levels among children and adolescents in the US population and prevent cases of childhood obesity. Results do not include other impacts of increased physical activity, including cognitive and behavioral effects. Decision-makers can use these methods to inform prioritization of physical activity promotion and obesity prevention on policy agendas.

Three Interventions That Reduce Childhood Obesity Are Projected To Save More Than They Cost To Implement.

Policy makers seeking to reduce childhood obesity must prioritize investment in treatment and primary prevention. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of seven interventions high on the obesity policy agenda: a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax; elimination of the tax subsidy for advertising unhealthy food to children; restaurant menu calorie labeling; nutrition standards for school meals; nutrition standards for all other food and beverages sold in schools; improved early care and education; and increased access to adolescent bariatric surgery. We used systematic reviews and a microsimulation model of national implementation of the interventions over the period 2015-25 to estimate their impact on obesity prevalence and their cost-effectiveness for reducing the body mass index of individuals. In our model, three of the seven interventions--excise tax, elimination of the tax deduction, and nutrition standards for food and beverages sold in schools outside of meals--saved more in health care costs than they cost to implement. Each of the three interventions prevented 129,000-576,000 cases of childhood obesity in 2025. Adolescent bariatric surgery had a negligible impact on obesity prevalence. Our results highlight the importance of primary prevention for policy makers aiming to reduce childhood obesity.

Cost Effectiveness of Childhood Obesity Interventions: Evidence and Methods for CHOICES.

INTRODUCTION: The childhood obesity epidemic continues in the U.S., and fiscal crises are leading policymakers to ask not only whether an intervention works but also whether it offers value for money. However, cost-effectiveness analyses have been limited. This paper discusses methods and outcomes of four childhood obesity interventions: (1) sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax (SSB); (2) eliminating tax subsidy of TV advertising to children (TV AD); (3) early care and education policy change (ECE); and (4) active physical education (Active PE). METHODS: Cost-effectiveness models of nationwide implementation of interventions were estimated for a simulated cohort representative of the 2015 U.S. population over 10 years (2015-2025). A societal perspective was used; future outcomes were discounted at 3%. Data were analyzed in 2014. Effectiveness, implementation, and equity issues were reviewed. RESULTS: Population reach varied widely, and cost per BMI change ranged from $1.16 (TV AD) to $401 (Active PE). At 10 years, assuming maintenance of the intervention effect, three interventions would save net costs, with SSB and TV AD saving $55 and $38 for every dollar spent. The SSB intervention would avert disability-adjusted life years, and both SSB and TV AD would increase quality-adjusted life years. Both SSB ($12.5 billion) and TV AD ($80 million) would produce yearly tax revenue. CONCLUSIONS: The cost effectiveness of these preventive interventions is greater than that seen for published clinical interventions to treat obesity. Cost-effectiveness evaluations of childhood obesity interventions can provide decision makers with information demonstrating best value for the money.

Cost Effectiveness of an Elementary School Active Physical Education Policy.

INTRODUCTION: Many American children do not meet recommendations for moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Although school-based physical education (PE) provides children with opportunities for MVPA, less than half of PE minutes are typically active. The purpose of this study is to estimate the cost effectiveness of a state "active PE" policy implemented nationally requiring that at least 50% of elementary school PE time is spent in MVPA. METHODS: A cohort model was used to simulate the impact of an active PE policy on physical activity, BMI, and healthcare costs over 10 years for a simulated cohort of the 2015 U.S. population aged 6-11 years. Data were analyzed in 2014. RESULTS: An elementary school active PE policy would increase MVPA per 30-minute PE class by 1.87 minutes (95% uncertainty interval [UI]=1.23, 2.51) and cost $70.7 million (95% UI=$51.1, $95.9 million) in the first year to implement nationally. Physical activity gains would cost $0.34 per MET-hour/day (95% UI=$0.15, $2.15), and BMI could be reduced after 2 years at a cost of $401 per BMI unit (95% UI=$148, $3,100). From 2015 to 2025, the policy would cost $235 million (95% UI=$170 million, $319 million) and reduce healthcare costs by $60.5 million (95% UI=$7.93 million, $153 million). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing an active PE policy at the elementary school level could have a small impact on physical activity levels in the population and potentially lead to reductions in BMI and obesity-related healthcare expenditures over 10 years.

Development of a 'patient information leaflet' for use following assessment of patients with reported or suspected paracetamol overdose in the UK.

The aim of this study was to design an information leaflet for patients with paracetamol overdose based on Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency guidance and to assess its readability. A two-sided one page information leaflet was designed for patients being discharged from hospital after a paracetamol overdose. Patients presenting with an acute paracetamol overdose, irrespective of whether they were treated or not, were recruited to read the leaflet and then answer a brief structured questionnaire based on the leaflet. The readability of the information leaflet was assessed using the Flesch reading ease score. Thirty patients (15 male, 12 female, 3 not recorded; mean age 38 ± 13.0 years) were recruited, wherein 100% of patients reported the language used was understandable, 96.6% knew which symptoms would require urgent medical review after discharge and 100% of patients knew the liver was affected by paracetamol. The Flesch reading ease score was 67.6 (out of a maximum of 100), equivalent to a UK reading age of 10-11years old. Our information leaflet for all patients being discharged after paracetamol overdose was well received by patients, provided them with the required knowledge and had an appropriate reading age based on UK literacy rates. We would recommend that this leaflet could be used as a template on a national level, localized to individual hospitals, to improve patient knowledge of paracetamol toxicity, and facilitate early medical review in the event of deterioration following discharge from the hospital.