An Integrated Assessment of Emissions, Air Quality, and Public Health Impacts of China's Transition to Electric Vehicles.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are a promising pathway to providing cleaner personal mobility. China provides substantial supports to increase EV market share. This study provides an extensive analysis of the currently unclear environmental and health benefits of these incentives at the provincial level. EVs in China have modest cradle-to-gate CO2 benefits (on average 29%) compared to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), but have similar carbon emissions relative to hybrid electric vehicles. Well-to-wheel air pollutant emissions assessment shows that emissions associated with ICEVs are mainly from gasoline production, not the tailpipe, suggesting tighter emissions controls on refineries are needed to combat air pollution problems effectively. By integrating a vehicle fleet model into policy scenario analysis, we quantify the policy impacts associated with the passenger vehicles in the major Chinese provinces: broader EV penetration, especially combined with cleaner power generation, could deliver greater air quality and health benefits, but not necessarily significant climate change mitigation. The total value to society of the climate and mortality benefits in 2030 is found to be comparable to a prior estimate of the EV policy's economic costs.

Environmental and Economic Performance of Hybrid Power-to-Liquid and Biomass-to-Liquid Fuel Production in the United States.

Power-to-liquids are a class of liquid drop-in fuels produced from electricity and carbon dioxide as the primary process inputs, which have the potential to reduce transportation's climate impacts. We quantify the economic and life cycle environmental characteristics of four electrofuel technology pathways that rely on the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis but produce synthesis gas via different schemes: power-to-liquid (PtL) via electrolysis and a reverse water gas shift (RWGS) reaction; PtL via co-electrolysis; gasification of biomass-to-liquid (BtL); and a hybrid power- and biomass-to-liquid (PBtL) pathway. The results indicate that the hybrid PBtL pathway is the most environmentally and economically promising option for electrofuel production, with results highly dependent on input electricity source characteristics such as cost and emissions. The carbon intensities of electricity generation that must not be exceeded for electrofuels to have lower life cycle emissions than conventional diesel are 222, 116, and 143 gCO2e/kWh for PBtL, PtL electrolysis + RWGS, and PtL co-electrolysis, respectively. We characterize the PBtL pathway in more detail by combining spatially resolved data on biomass cultivation, electricity generation, and cost-optimized hydrogen production from renewable electricity in the United States (US). We find that the private emissions abatement cost for PBtL fuels varies between 740 and 2000 $/tCO2e, depending primarily on the location of fuel production.

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Costs of Production of Diesel and Jet Fuel from Municipal Solid Waste.

This paper quantifies and compares the life cycle GHG emissions and costs of production of diesel and jet fuel derived from municipal solid waste (MSW) in the United States via three thermochemical conversion pathways: conventional gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (FT middle distillate, MD), plasma gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (Plasma FT MD), and conventional gasification, catalytic alcohol synthesis, and alcohol-to-jet upgrading (ATJ MD). We use expanded system boundaries to capture the change in existing MSW use and disposal, and account for parameter uncertainty with Monte Carlo simulations. We estimate median life cycle GHG emissions of 32.9, 62.3, and 52.7 gCO2e/MJ for FT, Plasma FT and ATJ MD fuels, respectively, compared to a baseline of 90 gCO2e/MJ for conventional MD fuels. Median minimum selling prices are estimated at 0.99, 1.78, and 1.20 $ per liter with the probability of achieving a positive net present value of fuel production at market prices of 14%, 0.1% and 7% for FT, Plasma FT and ATJ MD fuels, respectively. If the societal perspective rather than an investor's perspective is evaluated, then the probability of positive net present value of fuel production increases to 93%, 67%, and 92.5% for the FT, Plasma FT, and ATJ MD fuels, respectively.

The costs of production of alternative jet fuel: A harmonized stochastic assessment.

This study quantifies and compares the costs of production for six alternative jet fuel pathways using consistent financial and technical assumptions. Uncertainty was propagated through the analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. The six processes assessed were HEFA, advanced fermentation, Fischer-Tropsch, aqueous phase processing, hydrothermal liquefaction, and fast pyrolysis. The results indicate that none of the six processes would be profitable in the absence of government incentives, with HEFA using yellow grease, HEFA using tallow, and FT revealing the lowest mean jet fuel prices at $0.91/liter ($0.66/liter-$1.24/liter), $1.06/liter ($0.79/liter-$1.42/liter), and $1.15/liter ($0.95/liter-$1.39/liter), respectively. This study also quantifies plant performance in the United States with a Renewable Fuel Standard policy analysis. Results indicate that some pathways could achieve positive NPV with relatively high likelihood under existing policy supports, with HEFA and FPH revealing the highest probability of positive NPV at 94.9% and 99.7%, respectively, in the best-case scenario.

Costs of IQ Loss from Leaded Aviation Gasoline Emissions.

In the United States, general aviation piston-driven aircraft are now the largest source of lead emitted to the atmosphere. Elevated lead concentrations impair children's IQ and can lead to lower earnings potentials. This study is the first assessment of the nationwide annual costs of IQ losses from aircraft lead emissions. We develop a general aviation emissions inventory for the continental United States and model its impact on atmospheric concentrations using the community multi-scale air quality model (CMAQ). We use these concentrations to quantify the impacts of annual aviation lead emissions on the U.S. population using two methods: through static estimates of cohort-wide IQ deficits and through dynamic economy-wide effects using a computational general equilibrium model. We also examine the sensitivity of these damage estimates to different background lead concentrations, showing the impact of lead controls and regulations on marginal costs. We find that aircraft-attributable lead contributes to $1.06 billion 2006 USD ($0.01-$11.6) in annual damages from lifetime earnings reductions, and that dynamic economy-wide methods result in damage estimates that are 54% larger. Because the marginal costs of lead are dependent on background concentration, the costs of piston-driven aircraft lead emissions are expected to increase over time as regulations on other emissions sources are tightened.

Biomass logistics analysis for large scale biofuel production: case study of loblolly pine and switchgrass.

The objective of this study was to assess the costs, energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions throughout the biomass supply chain for large scale biofuel production. Two types of energy crop were considered, switchgrass and loblolly pine, as representative of herbaceous and woody biomass. A biomass logistics model has been developed to estimate the feedstock supply system from biomass production through transportation. Biomass in the form of woodchip, bale and pellet was investigated with road, railway and waterway transportation options. Our analysis indicated that the farm or forest gate cost is lowest for loblolly pine whole tree woodchip at $39.7/dry tonne and highest for switchgrass round bale at $72.3/dry tonne. Switchgrass farm gate GHG emissions is approximately 146kgCO2e/dry tonne, about 4 times higher than loblolly pine. The optimum biomass transportation mode and delivered form are determined by the tradeoff between fixed and variable costs for feedstock shipment.

Economic and environmental benefits of higher-octane gasoline.

We quantify the economic and environmental benefits of designing U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDVs) to attain higher fuel economy by utilizing higher octane (98 RON) gasoline. We use engine simulations, a review of experimental data, and drive cycle simulations to estimate the reduction in fuel consumption associated with using higher-RON gasoline in individual vehicles. Lifecycle CO2 emissions and economic impacts for the U.S. LDV fleet are estimated based on a linear-programming refinery model, a historically calibrated fleet model, and a well-to-wheels emissions analysis. We find that greater use of high-RON gasoline in appropriately tuned vehicles could reduce annual gasoline consumption in the U.S. by 3.0-4.4%. Accounting for the increase in refinery emissions from production of additional high-RON gasoline, net CO2 emissions are reduced by 19-35 Mt/y in 2040 (2.5-4.7% of total direct LDV CO2 emissions). For the strategies studied, the annual direct economic benefit is estimated to be $0.4-6.4 billion in 2040, and the annual net societal benefit including the social cost of carbon is estimated to be $1.7-8.8 billion in 2040. Adoption of a RON standard in the U.S. in place of the current antiknock index (AKI) may enable refineries to produce larger quantities of high-RON gasoline.

Air quality and climate impacts of alternative bus technologies in Greater London.

The environmental impact of diesel-fueled buses can potentially be reduced by the adoption of alternative propulsion technologies such as lean-burn compressed natural gas (LB-CNG) or hybrid electric buses (HEB), and emissions control strategies such as a continuously regenerating trap (CRT), exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), or selective catalytic reduction with trap (SCRT). This study assessed the environmental costs and benefits of these bus technologies in Greater London relative to the existing fleet and characterized emissions changes due to alternative technologies. We found a >30% increase in CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions for CNG buses, a <5% change for exhaust treatment scenarios, and a 13% (90% confidence interval 3.8-20.9%) reduction for HEB relative to baseline CO2e emissions. A multiscale regional chemistry-transport model quantified the impact of alternative bus technologies on air quality, which was then related to premature mortality risk. We found the largest decrease in population exposure (about 83%) to particulate matter (PM2.5) occurred with LB-CNG buses. Monetized environmental and investment costs relative to the baseline gave estimated net present cost of LB-CNG or HEB conversion to be $187 million ($73 million to $301 million) or $36 million ($-25 million to $102 million), respectively, while EGR or SCRT estimated net present costs were $19 million ($7 million to $32 million) or $15 million ($8 million to $23 million), respectively.

Public health, climate, and economic impacts of desulfurizing jet fuel.

In jurisdictions including the US and the EU ground transportation and marine fuels have recently been required to contain lower concentrations of sulfur, which has resulted in reduced atmospheric SO(x) emissions. In contrast, the maximum sulfur content of aviation fuel has remained unchanged at 3000 ppm (although sulfur levels average 600 ppm in practice). We assess the costs and benefits of a potential ultra-low sulfur (15 ppm) jet fuel standard ("ULSJ"). We estimate that global implementation of ULSJ will cost US$1-4bn per year and prevent 900-4000 air quality-related premature mortalities per year. Radiative forcing associated with reduction in atmospheric sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium loading is estimated at +3.4 mW/m(2) (equivalent to about 1/10th of the warming due to CO(2) emissions from aviation) and ULSJ increases life cycle CO(2) emissions by approximately 2%. The public health benefits are dominated by the reduction in cruise SO(x) emissions, so a key uncertainty is the atmospheric modeling of vertical transport of pollution from cruise altitudes to the ground. Comparisons of modeled and measured vertical profiles of CO, PAN, O(3), and (7)Be indicate that this uncertainty is low relative to uncertainties regarding the value of statistical life and the toxicity of fine particulate matter.

Predictors of placebo group decline in the Alzheimer's disease Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) in 24 week clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease.

One limitation of several recent 24 week Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical trials was the lack of cognitive decline detected by the AD Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog) in the placebo groups, possibly obscuring true medication effects. Data from 733 individuals in the placebo arms of six AD clinical trials performed 1996-1997 were pooled to examine the relationship of clinical, demographic, and genetic characteristics with the 24 week change in ADAS-cog. Baseline cognitive and functional status and the screening-to-baseline change in ADAS-cog were the strongest independent predictors of the 24 week change in ADAS-cog. The ADAS-cog did not detect progression in patients with mild dementia (screening Mini-Mental State Exam, MMSE, >or=20). The change in ADAS-cog from screening to baseline was inversely correlated with the 24 week change score; it was more difficult to detect cognitive decline at 24 weeks if individuals markedly worsened from screening to baseline. The effects of baseline MMSE and screening-to-baseline change in ADAS-cog generalized to the placebo group (N=106) of another AD study performed in 2004-2005. Overcoming lack of placebo decline in AD clinical trials will require scales more sensitive to cognitive decline in mild AD and strategies to reduce within-person variability in outcome measures.

Life's a switch. Experiences in NSF undergraduate design projects.

During the summer of 2002 Stephanie Popp and Jennifer Barnes developed a manual, "Life's a Switch," through a project funded by the National Science Foundation. This manual teaches people how to build their own cost effective assistive switches. Assistive switches are a form of assistive technology which includes any device that enhances a person's quality of life by improving the individual's mobility, ability to perform daily activities, enhancing communication, or allowing participation in education, vocational activities and recreation. One main goal of assistive technology is to provide opportunities for children with disabilities to explore, play, learn, and communicate with others. Switches are essential tools used to provide these opportunities. When a child with developmental disabilities understands the connection between the activation of a switch and the resulting action it triggers, the knowledge of cause and effect is gained. Therefore, the basis for all future learning is established [1]. One of the current problems facing assistive switch users is the cost of available items. This project provides more affordable solutions for switch users by teaching the families and educators of switch users how to make their own switches and adaptors in the "Life's a Switch" manual. For example, some assistive technology vendors sell large button switches from $25.00 to $45.00, tread switches for $40.00, and pillow switches for $35.00 [2]. Amazingly, all parts and tools used to make these assistive switches can be bought and made into personally designed assistive devices averaging a cost of around $10.00 [3]. A workshop to teach this manual was also developed. This workshop will spread awareness of the more affordable options this project sets forth. In September of 2002, the first workshop was held in a laboratory classroom at the University of Wyoming's College of Engineering. Each attendant was provided with a kit that included all essential tools and components needed to make an assistive switch. Workshops scheduled into 2003 will provide educational opportunities for participants as well as opportunities for improvement of the manual.

University of Wyoming, College of Engineering, undergraduate design project: star tracer.

The University of Wyoming received funding in the spring of 2002 from the National Science Foundation Division of Bioengineering and Environmental Systems in order to complete undergraduate design projects. One design project that was chosen by the College of Engineering involved partnering with the College of Education. The College of Education's Special Education Department needed some visual teaching aids to be redesigned and then built. Two undergraduate students were hired throughout the summer of 2002 under NSF REU funding in order to develop thirty new teaching devices. These devices were going to be used to educate middle school students about the effects of possessing a learning disability. The teaching aids are specifically designed for simulating the affects of dyslexia. The new teaching aids required improved transportability and durability, quicker setup time, and a lighter weight. Throughout the summer, the teaching aids were redesigned and built by an undergraduate student team from the College of Engineering, and have since provided many benefits for the state of Wyoming.

University of Wyoming, College of Engineering, undergraduate design projects to aid Wyoming persons with disabilities.

In Spring 2002 the University of Wyoming received NSF funding from the Division of Bioengineering and Environmental Systems to provide a meaningful design experience for University of Wyoming, College of Engineering students that will directly aid individuals with disabilities within the state of Wyoming. Other universities have participated in this very worthwhile program [1, 2, 3]. To achieve the program purpose, the following objectives were established: Provide engineering students multi-disciplinary, meaningful, community service design projects, Provide persons with disabilities assistive devices to empower them to achieve the maximum individual growth and development and afford them the opportunity to participate in all aspects of life as they choose, Provide engineering students education and awareness on the special needs and challenges of persons with disabilities, and Provide undergraduate engineering students exposure to the biomedical field of engineering. To accomplish these objectives the College of Engineering partnered with three organizations that provide education and service related to disability. Specifically, the college has joined with the Wyoming Institute for Disabilities (WIND) assistive technology program, Wyoming New Options in Technology (WYNOT) and their Sports and Outdoor Assistive Recreation (SOAR) project along with the university's Special Education program. In this paper we will describe how the program was created, developed, and its current status.