Improving detection of cystic fibrosis related liver disease using liver fibrosis assessment tools.

Background & aims: Cystic Fibrosis related liver disease (CFLD) is the 3rd largest cause of death in Cystic Fibrosis (CF). As advances in pulmonary therapies have increased life-expectancy, CFLD has become more prevalent. Current guidelines may underdiagnose liver fibrosis, particularly in its early stages. Newer modalities for the assessment of fibrosis may provide a more accurate assessment. FibroScan is validated in assessing fibrosis for several aetiologies including alcohol and fatty liver, the CFLD cohort have an entirely different phenotype so the cut off values are not transferrable. We appraised fibrosis assessment tools to improve diagnosis of CFLD. Methods: A prospective cohort (n = 114) of patients from the Manchester Adult Cystic Fibrosis Centre, UK were identified at annual assessment. Demographic data including co-morbidity, CFTR genotyping, biochemistry and imaging were used alongside current guidelines to group into CFLD and CF without evidence of liver disease. All patients underwent liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and assessment of serum-based fibrosis biomarker panels. A new diagnostic criterion was created and validated in a second, independent cohort. Results: 12 of 114 patient classified as CFLD according to the European Cystic Fibrosis Society best practice guidelines. No specific risk factors for development of CFLD were identified. Liver enzymes were elevated in patients with CFLD. Serum biomarker panels did not improve diagnostic criteria. LSM accurately predicted CFLD. A new diagnostic criterion was proposed and validated in a separate cohort, accurately predicating CFLD in 10 of 32 patients (31 %). Conclusion: We present a cohort of patients with CF assessed for the presence of liver fibrosis using blood biomarkers and LSM based platforms. We propose a new, simplified diagnostic criteria, capable of accurately predicting liver disease in patients with CF.Clinical trials number: NCT04277819.

3-Dimensional objective aesthetic evaluation to replace panel assessment after breast-conserving treatment.

BACKGROUND: Two-thirds of patients with early breast cancer undergo breast-conserving treatment (BCT). Aesthetic outcome is important and has long term implications for psychosocial wellbeing. The aesthetic goal of BCT is symmetry for which there is no gold-standard measure. Panel scoring is the most widely adopted assessment but has well-described limitations. This paper describes a model to objectively report aesthetic outcome using measures derived from 3-dimensional surface images (3D-SI). METHOD: Objective measures and panel assessment were undertaken independently for 3D-SI of women who underwent BCT 1-5 years previously. Univariate analysis was used to test for association between measures and panel score. A forward stepwise multiple linear regression model was fitted to identify 3D measurements that jointly predicted the mean panel score. The fitted model coefficients were used to predict mean panel scores for an independent validation set then compared to the mean observed panel score. RESULTS: Very good intra-panel reliability was observed for the training and validation sets (wκ = 0.87, wκ = 0.84). Six 3D-measures were used in the multivariate model. There was a good correlation between the predicted and mean observed panel score in the training (n = 190) and validation (n = 100) sets (r = 0.68, r = 0.65). The 3D model tended to predict scores towards the median. The model was calibrated which improved the distribution of predicted scores. CONCLUSION: A six-variable objective aesthetic outcome model for BCT has been described and validated. This can predict and could replace panel assessment, facilitating the independent and unbiased evaluation of aesthetic outcome to communicate and compare results, benchmark practice, and raise standards.

Assessment of Molecular Relapse Detection in Early-Stage Breast Cancer.

Importance: Current treatment cures most cases of early-stage, primary breast cancer. However, better techniques are required to identify which patients are at risk of relapse. Objective: To assess the clinical validity of molecular relapse detection with circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis in early-stage breast cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective, multicenter, sample collection, validation study conducted at 5 United Kingdom medical centers from November 24, 2011, to October 18, 2016, assessed patients with early-stage breast cancer irrespective of hormone receptor and ERBB2 (formerly HER2 or HER2/neu) status who were receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery or surgery before adjuvant chemotherapy. The study recruited 170 women, with mutations identified in 101 patients forming the main cohort. Secondary analyses were conducted on a combined cohort of 144 patients, including 43 patients previously analyzed in a proof of principle study. Interventions: Primary tumor was sequenced to identify somatic mutations, and personalized tumor-specific digital polymerase chain reaction assays were used to monitor these mutations in serial plasma samples taken every 3 months for the first year of follow-up and subsequently every 6 months. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was relapse-free survival analyzed with Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: In the main cohort of 101 female patients (mean [SD] age, 54 [11] years) with a median follow-up of 35.5 months (interquartile range, 27.9-43.0 months), detection of ctDNA during follow-up was associated with relapse (hazard ratio, 25.2; 95% CI, 6.7-95.6; P < .001). Detection of ctDNA at diagnosis, before any treatment, was also associated with relapse-free survival (hazard ratio, 5.8; 95% CI, 1.2-27.1; P = .01). In the combined cohort, ctDNA detection had a median lead time of 10.7 months (95% CI, 8.1-19.1 months) compared with clinical relapse and was associated with relapse in all breast cancer subtypes. Distant extracranial metastatic relapse was detected by ctDNA in 22 of 23 patients (96%). Brain-only metastasis was less commonly detected by ctDNA (1 of 6 patients [17%]), suggesting relapse sites less readily detectable by ctDNA analysis. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that detection of ctDNA during follow-up is associated with a high risk of future relapse of early-stage breast cancer. Prospective studies are needed to assess the potential of molecular relapse detection to guide adjuvant therapy.

Venous Thromboembolism Prophylaxis Strategies for People Undergoing Elective Total Hip Replacement: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy and safety of venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in people undergoing elective total hip replacement. METHODS: Systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials were conducted for 3 outcomes: deep vein thrombosis (DVT), pulmonary embolism (PE), and major bleeding (MB). MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library (CENTRAL) databases were searched. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias checklist. Fixed- and random-effects models were fitted and compared. The median relative risk (RR) and odds ratio (OR) compared with no prophylaxis, with their 95% credible intervals (CrIs), rank, and probability of being the best, were calculated. RESULTS: Forty-two (n = 24 374, 26 interventions), 30 (n = 28 842, 23 interventions), and 24 (n = 31 792, 15 interventions) randomized controlled trials were included in the DVT, PE, and MB networks, respectively. Rivaroxaban had the highest probability of being the most effective intervention for DVT (RR 0.06 [95% CrI 0.01-0.29]). Strategy of low-molecular-weight heparin followed by aspirin had the highest probability of reducing the risk of PE and MB (RR 0.0011 [95% CrI 0.00-0.096] and OR 0.37 [95% CrI 0.00-26.96], respectively). The ranking of efficacy estimates across the 3 networks, particularly PE and MB, had very wide CrIs, indicating high degree of uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: A strategy of low-molecular-weight heparin given for 10 days followed by aspirin for 28 days had the best benefit-risk balance, with the highest probability of being the best on the basis of the results of the PE and MB network meta-analyses. Nevertheless, there is considerable uncertainty around the median ranks of the interventions.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Venous Thromboembolism Prophylaxis Strategies for People Undergoing Elective Total Hip and Total Knee Replacement Surgeries in the English National Health Service.

Background: Major orthopedic surgery, such as elective total hip replacement (eTHR) and elective total knee replacement (eTKR), are associated with a higher risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) than other surgical procedures. Little is known, however, about the cost-effectiveness of VTE prophylaxis strategies in people undergoing these procedures. Aim: The aim of this work was to assess the cost-effectiveness of these strategies from the English National Health Service perspective to inform NICE guideline (NG89) recommendations. Materials and Methods: Cost-utility analysis, using decision modeling, was undertaken to compare 15 VTE prophylaxis strategies for eTHR and 12 for eTKR, in addition to "no prophylaxis" strategy. The analysis complied with the NICE Reference Case. Structure and assumptions were agreed with the guideline committee. Incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) was calculated, vs. the model comparator (LMWH+ antiembolism stockings), at a threshold of £20,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The model was run probabilistically. Deterministic sensitivity analyses (SAs) were undertaken to assess the robustness of the results. Results: The most cost-effective strategies were LMWH for 10 days followed by aspirin for 28 days (INMB = £530 [95% CI: -£784 to £1,103], probability of being most cost-effective = 72%) for eTHR, and foot pump (INMB = £353 [95% CI: -£101 to £665]; probability of being most cost-effective = 18%) for eTKR. There was considerable uncertainty regarding the cost-effectiveness ranking in the eTKR analysis. The results were robust to change in all SAs. Conclusions: For eTHR, LMWH (standard dose) for 10 days followed by aspirin for 28 days is the most cost-effective VTE prophylaxis strategy. For eTKR, the results are highly uncertain but foot pump appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy, followed closely by aspirin (low dose). Future research should focus on assessing cost-effectiveness of VTE prophylaxis in the eTKR population.

The effect of baseline morphology and its change during treatment on the accuracy of Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours in assessment of liver metastases.

PURPOSE: Tumour response assessment to therapy is crucial in oncology. We analysed the morphology of liver metastases (LM) in gastrointestinal stromal tumour (GIST) patients to determine whether uni-dimensional measurement of lesions by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST), accurately reflects lesion volume. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The volumes of LM (n=139) from a GIST patient cohort were measured using computed tomography (CT) at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months after commencement of imatinib therapy. Baseline measurements were obtained by two independent investigators and inter-observer agreement assessed using Bland-Altman plots. Actual lesion volumes (V(ACTUAL)) were measured and compared with volumes based on the RECIST measure (V(RECIST)), and with volumes based on three orthogonal measures (V(ELLIPSOID)) at several time-points. RESULTS: At baseline, the inter-observer bias for V(ACTUAL) was just 1.8%. V(RECIST) and V(ELLIPSOID) overestimated V(ACTUAL) by a mean of 35% and only 9% respectively (P<0.0001 for both). At baseline, 44% (61/139) of LM were classified as spheroidal and 56% (78/139) as ellipsoidal. During treatment, only 42% of LM retained their original morphology. The remainder demonstrated significant changes in morphology (from spheroidal to ellipsoidal and vice versa) over time, while the RECIST measure did not reflect such changes. CONCLUSIONS: The morphology of LM in GIST is rarely spherical (an underlying assumption for RECIST) and can change considerably during imatinib therapy. In this setting, measurements using RECIST do not reflect changes in size and morphology. Additionally, whilst V(ELLIPSOID) is a more suitable surrogate for volume estimation, it is still somewhat limited by the morphology and orientation of such lesions. Studies are warranted to further explore the clinical impact of these findings.

Sweat chloride is not a useful marker of clinical response to Ivacaftor.

Clinical trials have revealed that Ivacaftor significantly reduces sweat chloride in patients with cystic fibrosis who carry the G551D mutation. This finding has been incorporated into the commissioning guidelines in the UK with a sweat chloride reduction of 30% or below 60 mmol/L, specified as the main criteria for continued funding of Ivacaftor for individual patients. In a cohort of 24 adults who were prescribed Ivacaftor, there was no correlation between absolute or relative reductions in sweat chloride and improvements in lung function. This questions the validity of sweat chloride as a surrogate marker of clinical efficacy.