Building upon the sugar beverage tax in Mexico: a modelling study of tax alternatives to increase benefits.

INTRODUCTION: In 2014, Mexico implemented a one peso-per-litre tax to sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB). Even though this tax reduced household purchases and predicted population health gains, the magnitude is lower compared with taxes implemented in other settings. In this study, we assessed what would happen if Mexico modified its existing tax to get higher benefits based on currently implemented taxes elsewhere. METHODS: For each tax scenario, we estimated net benefits as the difference between healthcare savings and lost jobs. We created hypothetical scenarios in which the current tax doubled or would be modified based on existing tax designs around the world including specific taxes (sugar-density or volumetric) and ad-valorem taxes. RESULTS: We found that the largest benefits would correspond to a tax increase of 7.4 Mexican pesos (0.45 US dollars (USD)) per SSB litre, following the current tax in Bahrain (the highest tax rate option). This tax is predicted to yield net benefits equivalent to USD 24.7 billion after 10 years of the tax redesign. We also found that sugar-density taxes can result in larger net benefits since, in addition to reductions in consumption associated with responses to prices, they induce product reformulation. Middle-income households are the most benefited group because they reported the highest baseline prevalence of obesity and the largest price elasticity. CONCLUSION: Policymakers should consider pursuing a tax reform adding to the current tax, with significant increases in prices linked to a sugar-density strategy to reach a higher benefit.

How Could Taxes on Sugary Drinks and Foods Help Reduce the Burden Of Type 2 Diabetes?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Taxes on sugary drinks and foods have emerged as a key strategy to counteract the alarming levels of diabetes worldwide. Added sugar consumption from industrialized foods and beverages has been strongly linked to type 2 diabetes. This review provides a synthesis of evidence on how taxes on sugary products can influence the onset of type 2 diabetes, describing the importance of the different mechanisms through which the consumption of these products is reduced, leading to changes in weight and potentially a decrease in the incidence of type 2 diabetes. RECENT FINDINGS: Observational studies have shown significant reductions in purchases, energy intake, and body weight after the implementation of taxes on sugary drinks or foods. Simulation studies based on the association between energy intake and type 2 diabetes estimated the potential long-term health and economic effects, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, suggesting that the implementation of sugary food and beverage taxes may have a meaningful impact on reducing type 2 diabetes and complications. Public health response to diabetes requires multi-faceted approaches from health and non-health actors to drive healthier societies. Population-wide strategies, such as added sugar taxes, highlight the potential benefits of financial incentives to address behaviors and protective factors to significantly change an individual's health trajectory and reduce the onset of type 2 diabetes worldwide, both in terms of economy and public health.

Comparison of Dietary Intake Before vs After Taxes on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages and Nonessential Energy-Dense Foods in Mexico, 2012 to 2018.

Importance: Tax evaluations have shown effectiveness in reducing purchases of taxed items. However, few studies have looked at changes in overall dietary intake according to national surveys. Objective: To estimate the contribution of taxed and untaxed beverages and foods to dietary intake over time, and the nutritional dietary profile in total beverages and foods consumed. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used data from 3 National Health and Nutrition Surveys of a nationally representative sample of participants aged older than 1 year in Mexico from 2012 (pretax), 2016, and 2018 (posttax). Data were analyzed from September 2021 to December 2022. Exposure: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and nonessential energy-dense foods implemented since 2014. Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcomes were the contribution of taxed and untaxed beverages to total beverage volume, the contribution of taxed and untaxed foods to total food energy, and the energy density and content of added sugars and saturated fats. Outcomes were assessed with 24-hour recalls (24HR) (2012 and 2016) and Food Frequency Questionnaires (FFQ) (2012, 2016, and 2018), and were adjusted by sociodemographic and macroeconomic variables. Results: A total of 17 239 participants were analyzed from 2012, 18 974 from 2016, and 30 027 from 2018; approximately 50% were men, and approximately 75% lived in urban areas. According to 24HRs, the contribution of taxed beverages to total beverage volume changed -2.3 (95% CI, -4.4 to -0.2) percentage points from 2012 to 2016, while water increased. The contribution of taxed foods to total food energy changed -3.0 (95% CI, -4.2 to -1.8) percentage points, while untaxed whole grains, processed meats, other animal sources, and sugars and desserts increased. The content in total beverages of added sugars changed -1.1 kcal/100 mL (95% CI, -2.0 to -0.2), and in total foods, the content of added sugar changed -0.6 %kcal (95% CI, -1.0 to -0.2), saturated fat changed -0.8 %kcal (95% CI, -1.1 to -0.4), and energy density changed -9.8 kcal/100 g (95% CI, -13.8 to -5.8). Main results were consistent with the FFQ (up to 2018), with some differences in subgroups and nutritional components. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study on 3 cross-sectional national dietary surveys are consistent with previous evaluations; after tax implementation, there was a decrease in the contribution of taxed items. Furthermore, some unhealthy untaxed items increased, but the content of unhealthful nutritional components, particularly added sugar, in overall beverages and foods decreased.

Multimorbidity matters in low and middle-income countries.

Multimorbidity is a complex challenge affecting individuals, families, caregivers, and health systems worldwide. The burden of multimorbidity is remarkable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) given the many existing challenges in these settings. Investigating multimorbidity in LMICs poses many challenges including the different conditions studied, and the restriction of data sources to relatively few countries, limiting comparability and representativeness. This has led to a paucity of evidence on multimorbidity prevalence and trends, disease clusters, and health outcomes, particularly longitudinal outcomes. In this paper, based on our experience of investigating multimorbidity in LMICs contexts, we discuss how the structure of the health system does not favor addressing multimorbidity, and how this is amplified by social and economic disparities and, more recently, by the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that generating epidemiologic data around multimorbidity with similar methods and definition is essential to improve comparability, guide clinical decision-making and inform policies, research priorities, and local responses. We call for action on policy to refinance and prioritize primary care and integrated care as the center of multimorbidity.

Plataforma CLIMSS como herramienta de alfabetización en salud durante la crisis sanitaria de Covid-19 / CLIMSS online platform as a health literacy tool during the health crisis of Covid-19

Resumen: Objetivo: Describir a la plataforma Cursos en Línea Masivos del IMSS (CLIMSS) como herramienta de alfabetización en salud, a través de la evaluación de la eficiencia terminal, la ganancia de competencias y satisfacción de los usuarios de cursos en línea masivos en el tema de Covid-19. Material y métodos: Se analizaron datos de 20 cursos ofertados entre marzo y octubre de 2020. Se evaluaron las calificaciones pre y pos, el número total de registros, el total de cursos terminados y la satisfacción del usuario. Resultados: Se registraron un total de 4.9 millones de usuarios y 10 millones de inscripciones, en todos los estados de la República mexicana, con una eficiencia terminal de 85%, una ganancia de competencias de 30% y una satisfacción de 9.34 (10). Conclusiones: La plataforma CLIMSS ha mostrado ser una herramienta para la alfabetización en salud con un alcance de millones de mexicanos en temas relacionados con la crisis sanitaria Covid-19.

Abstract: Objective: To describe the Massive Online Open Courses (MOOC) or Cursos en Línea Masivos del IMSS (CLIMSS) platform as a health literacy tool by evaluating the terminal efficiency, the competence gains, and the users' satisfaction of the massive online courses offered by the Mexican Institute of Social Security, on Covid- 19. Materials and methods: Data from 20 courses offered between March and October 2020 were analyzed. We evaluated scores from the pre and post-tests, the total number of registries, total courses completed, and users' satisfaction. Results: We registered a total of 4.9 million users and 10 million registrations, in all Mexican states, with a terminal efficiency of 85%, a competence gain of 30%, and a users' satisfaction of 9.34 (10). Conclusions: The CLIMSS platform has proven to be a tool for health literacy reaching millions of Mexicans on Covid-19 related topics.

Acceptance, refusal, and hesitancy of Covid-19 vaccination in Mexico: Ensanut 2020 Covid-19 / Aceptabilidad, rechazo y duda ante la vacunación contra Covid-19 en México: Ensanut 2020 Covid-19

Abstract: Objective: To estimate the willingness to vaccinate against Covid-19 (acceptance) in the Mexican population and to identify socioeconomic factors associated with vaccine hesitancy and refusal. Materials and methods: We estimated the acceptance, refusal and hesitancy proportions using data from the Covid-19 National Health and Nutrition Survey conducted from August to November 2020. Factors associated with refusal and hesitancy were explored using multinomial logistic regression. Results: Covid-19 vaccination acceptance was 62.3%, refusal 28.2% and hesitancy 9.5%. Refusal and hesitancy were associated with being female, having older age, lower educational level, lower socioeconomic status and working in the informal sector. Conclusion: National campaigns to incentivize vaccine acceptance need to consider specific subgroups were the likelihood of hesitancy and refusal is high. In Mexico, refusal and hesitancy were higher in vulnerable groups, and people at a higher risk of Covid-19 complications and death.

Resumen: Objetivo: Estimar la aceptabilidad de la vacunación contra Covid-19 en la población mexicana e identificar factores socioeconómicos asociados con el rechazo o la duda. Material y métodos: Se estimó la proporción de aceptabilidad, rechazo y duda utilizando los datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2020 sobre Covid-19 levantada durante agosto y noviembre de 2020. Se exploraron los factores asociados con rechazo y duda mediante un modelo de regresión multinomial. Resultados: La aceptabilidad de la vacunación contra Covid-19 fue de 62.3%, el rechazo de 28.2% y la duda de 9.5%. El rechazo y la duda se asociaron con ser mujer, tener mayor edad, menor nivel de educación, menor nivel socioeconómico y trabajar en el sector informal. Conclusión: Las campañas para incentivar la aceptabilidad de la vacuna necesitan considerar los subgrupos específicos con una alta proporción de rechazo y duda. En México observamos un mayor rechazo y duda en grupos con mayor riesgo de complicaciones y muerte por Covid-19.

Predicting obesity reduction after implementing warning labels in Mexico: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: In October 2019, Mexico approved a law to establish that nonalcoholic beverages and packaged foods that exceed a threshold for added calories, sugars, fats, trans fat, or sodium should have an "excess of" warning label. We aimed to estimate the expected reduction in the obesity prevalence and obesity costs in Mexico by introducing warning labels, over 5 years, among adults under 60 years of age. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Baseline intakes of beverages and snacks were obtained from the 2016 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey. The expected impact of labels on caloric intake was obtained from an experimental study, with a 10.5% caloric reduction for beverages and 3.0% caloric reduction for snacks. The caloric reduction was introduced into a dynamic model to estimate weight change. The model output was then used to estimate the expected changes in the prevalence of obesity and overweight. To predict obesity costs, we used the Health Ministry report of the impact of overweight and obesity in Mexico 1999-2023. We estimated a mean caloric reduction of 36.8 kcal/day/person (23.2 kcal/day from beverages and 13.6 kcal/day from snacks). Five years after implementation, this caloric reduction could reduce 1.68 kg and 4.98 percentage points (pp) in obesity (14.7%, with respect to baseline), which translates into a reduction of 1.3 million cases of obesity and a reduction of US$1.8 billion in direct and indirect costs. Our estimate is based on experimental evidence derived from warning labels as proposed in Canada, which include a single label and less restrictive limits to sugar, sodium, and saturated fats. Our estimates depend on various assumptions, such as the transportability of effect estimates from the experimental study to the Mexican population and that other factors that could influence weight and food and beverage consumption remain unchanged. Our results will need to be corroborated by future observational studies through the analysis of changes in sales, consumption, and body weight. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we estimated that warning labels may effectively reduce obesity and obesity-related costs. Mexico is following Chile, Peru, and Uruguay in implementing warning labels to processed foods, but other countries could benefit from this intervention.

Prevalencia de diabetes y descontrol glucémico en México: resultados de la Ensanut 2016 / Prevalence of diabetes and poor glycemic control in Mexico: results from Ensanut 2016

Resumen: Objetivo: Estimar la prevalencia de diabetes (total, diagnosticada y no diagnosticada), de descontrol glucémico en México y sus factores asociados. Material y métodos: Se analizaron 3 700 adultos participantes en la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición de 2016. Se estimaron las prevalencias con ponderadores poblacionales y los factores asociados con diabetes total y descontrol glucémico con modelos de regresión de Poisson. Resultados: La prevalencia total de diabetes fue de 13.7% (9.5% diagnosticada, 4.1% no diagnosticada); 68.2% de los diagnosticados presentó descontrol glucémico. Mayor tiempo de diagnóstico, vivir en el centro/sur del país y ser atendido en farmacias se asoció con descontrol glucémico, mientras que ser atendido en los servicios de seguridad social se asoció con mejor control glucémico. Conclusión: Se requieren esfuerzos multisectoriales para fortalecer el tamizaje, diagnóstico oportuno y control de la enfermedad, considerando las diferencias por región y tipo de servicio de salud.

Abstract: Objective: To estimate the prevalence of total, diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, and the prevalence of poor glycemic control in Mexico, and its associated factors. Materials and methods: Data from 3 700 adult participants were analysed in the 2016 National Health and Nutrition Survey. Diabetes prevalences were estimated with population weights, and the factors associated with total diabetes and poor glycemic control with Poisson regression models. Results: The total prevalence of diabetes was 13.7% (9.5% diagnosed, 4.1% undiagnosed); 68.2% of people with diagnosed diabetes presented poor glycemic control. Longer disease duration, living in the centre or south of the country and being treated in pharmacies were associated with poor glycemic control. Being treated in a social security system was associated with better glycemic control. Conclusion: Multisectoral efforts are needed to strengthen screening, timely diagnosis and disease control, considering differences by region and type of health service.

[Prevalence of diabetes and poor glycemic control in Mexico: results from Ensanut 2016.] / Prevalencia de diabetes y descontrol glucémico en México: resultados de la Ensanut 2016.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of total, diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, and the prevalence of poor glycemic control in Mexico, and its associated factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from 3 700 adult participants were analysed in the 2016 National Health and Nutrition Survey. Diabetes prevalences were estimated with population weights, and the factors associated with total diabetes and poor glycemic control with Poisson regression models. RESULTS: The total prevalence of diabetes was 13.7% (9.5% diagnosed, 4.1% undiagnosed); 68.2% of people with diagnosed diabetes presented poor glycemic control. Longer disease duration, living in the centre or south of the country and being treated in pharmacies were associated with poor glycemic control. Being treated in a social security system was associated with better glycemic control. CONCLUSIONS: Multisectoral efforts are needed to strengthen screening, timely diagnosis and disease control, considering differences by region and type of health service.

OBJETIVO: Estimar la prevalencia de diabetes (total, diagnosticada y no diagnosticada), de descontrol glucémico en México y sus factores asociados. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se analizaron 3 700 adultos participantes en la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición de 2016. Se estimaron las prevalencias con ponderadores poblacionales y los factores asociados con diabetes total y descontrol glucémico con modelos de regresión de Poisson. RESULTADOS: La prevalencia total de diabetes fue de 13.7% (9.5% diagnosticada, 4.1% no diagnosticada); 68.2% de los diagnosticados presentó descontrol glucémico. Mayor tiempo de diagnóstico, vivir en el centro/sur del país y ser atendido en farmacias se asoció con descontrol glucémico, mientras que ser atendido en los servicios de seguridad social se asoció con mejor control glucémico. CONCLUSIONES: Se requieren esfuerzos multisectoriales para fortalecer el tamizaje, diagnóstico oportuno y control de la enfermedad, considerando las diferencias por región y tipo de servicio de salud.

Cost-Effectiveness Of The Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax In Mexico.

An excise tax of 1 peso per liter on sugar-sweetened beverages was implemented in Mexico in 2014. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of this tax and an alternative tax scenario of 2 pesos per liter. We developed a cohort simulation model calibrated for Mexico to project the impact of the tax over ten years. The current tax is projected to prevent 239,900 cases of obesity, 39 percent of which would be among children. It could also prevent 61,340 cases of diabetes, lead to gains of 55,300 quality-adjusted life-years, and avert 5,840 disability-adjusted life-years. The tax is estimated to save $3.98 per dollar spent on its implementation. Doubling the tax to 2 pesos per liter would nearly double the cost savings and health impact. Countries with comparable conditions could benefit from implementing a similar tax.

The shift of obesity burden by socioeconomic status between 1998 and 2017 in Latin America and the Caribbean: a cross-sectional series study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of obesity differs by socioeconomic status. We aimed to characterise the prevalence of obesity among adult men and women in Latin America and the Caribbean by socioeconomic measures and the shifting obesity burden over time. METHODS: We did a cross-sectional series analysis of obesity prevalence by socioeconomic status by use of national health surveys done between 1998 and 2017 in 13 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We generated equiplots to display inequalities in, the primary outcome, obesity by wealth, education, and residence area. We measured obesity gaps as the difference in percentage points between the highest and lowest obesity prevalence within each socioeconomic measure, and described trends as well as changing patterns of the obesity burden over time. FINDINGS: 479 809 adult men and women were included in the analysis. Obesity prevalence across countries has increased over time, with distinct patterns emerging by wealth and education indices. In the most recent available surveys, obesity was most prevalent among women in Mexico in 2016, and the least prevalent among women in Haiti in 2016. The largest gap between the highest and lowest obesity estimates by wealth was observed in Honduras among women (21·6 percentage point gap), and in Peru among men (22·4 percentage point gap), compared with a 3·7 percentage point gap among women in Brazil and 3·3 percentage points among men in Argentina. Urban residents consistently had a larger burden than their rural counterparts in most countries, with obesity gaps ranging from 0·1 percentage points among women in Paraguay to 15·8 percentage points among men in Peru. The trend analysis done in five countries suggests a shifting of the obesity burden across socioeconomic groups and different patterns by gender. Obesity gaps by education in Mexico have reduced over time among women, but increased among men, whereas the gap has increased among women but remains relatively constant among men in Argentina. INTERPRETATION: The increase in obesity prevalence in the Latin American and Caribbean region has been paralleled with an unequal distribution and a shifting burden across socioeconomic groups. Anticipation of the establishment of obesity among low socioeconomic groups could provide opportunities for societal gains in primordial prevention. FUNDING: None.

The Relationship of Socioeconomic Status with Body Mass Index Depends on the Socioeconomic Measure Used.

OBJECTIVE: The association between socioeconomic status (SES) and body mass index (BMI) in middle-income countries is mixed. Heterogeneity in SES indicators used could explain some differences. This study aimed to identify SES indicators consistently associated with BMI in Mexican adults in 2006, 2012, and 2016. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Surveys of 2006, 2012, and 2016, including adults 20 to 59 years old. Given expected differences by sex, sex-stratified linear regression models were fitted for each survey. Age-adjusted and multivariate models were fit by using seven noncollinear SES indicators. RESULTS: In age-adjusted models, most SES indicators were associated with a higher BMI in men; mixed associations were found for women. In multivariate models, living in urban areas was associated with a higher BMI for both men and women in 2006 and 2012. Across all surveys, education was associated with a lower BMI in women, while household assets were associated with a higher BMI in men. CONCLUSIONS: The association between SES indicators and BMI is complex. Differences by sex need to be explicitly recognized when modeling this association. Approaches that rely on a single indicator could be confounded by other SES indicators. Adjusted models show the specific SES attributes that may influence BMI.

Dissonant health transition in the states of Mexico, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: Child and maternal health outcomes have notably improved in Mexico since 1990, whereas rising adult mortality rates defy traditional epidemiological transition models in which decreased death rates occur across all ages. These trends suggest Mexico is experiencing a more complex, dissonant health transition than historically observed. Enduring inequalities between states further emphasise the need for more detailed health assessments over time. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2013 (GBD 2013) provides the comprehensive, comparable framework through which such national and subnational analyses can occur. This study offers a state-level quantification of disease burden and risk factor attribution in Mexico for the first time. METHODS: We extracted data from GBD 2013 to assess mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) in Mexico and its 32 states, along with eight comparator countries in the Americas. States were grouped by Marginalisation Index scores to compare subnational burden along a socioeconomic dimension. We split extracted data by state and applied GBD methods to generate estimates of burden, and attributable burden due to behavioural, metabolic, and environmental or occupational risks. We present results for 306 causes, 2337 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. FINDINGS: From 1990 to 2013, life expectancy from birth in Mexico increased by 3·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 3·1-3·8), from 72·1 years (71·8-72·3) to 75·5 years (75·3-75·7), and these gains were more pronounced in states with high marginalisation. Nationally, age-standardised death rates fell 13·3% (11·9-14·6%) since 1990, but state-level reductions for all-cause mortality varied and gaps between life expectancy and years lived in full health, as measured by HALE, widened in several states. Progress in women's life expectancy exceeded that of men, in whom negligible improvements were observed since 2000. For many states, this trend corresponded with rising YLL rates from interpersonal violence and chronic kidney disease. Nationally, age-standardised YLL rates for diarrhoeal diseases and protein-energy malnutrition markedly decreased, ranking Mexico well above comparator countries. However, amid Mexico's progress against communicable diseases, chronic kidney disease burden rapidly climbed, with age-standardised YLL and DALY rates increasing more than 130% by 2013. For women, DALY rates from breast cancer also increased since 1990, rising 12·1% (4·6-23·1%). In 2013, the leading five causes of DALYs were diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, low back and neck pain, and depressive disorders; the latter three were not among the leading five causes in 1990, further underscoring Mexico's rapid epidemiological transition. Leading risk factors for disease burden in 1990, such as undernutrition, were replaced by high fasting plasma glucose and high body-mass index by 2013. Attributable burden due to dietary risks also increased, accounting for more than 10% of DALYs in 2013. INTERPRETATION: Mexico achieved sizeable reductions in burden due to several causes, such as diarrhoeal diseases, and risks factors, such as undernutrition and poor sanitation, which were mainly associated with maternal and child health interventions. Yet rising adult mortality rates from chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cirrhosis, and, since 2000, interpersonal violence drove deteriorating health outcomes, particularly in men. Although state inequalities from communicable diseases narrowed over time, non-communicable diseases and injury burdens varied markedly at local levels. The dissonance with which Mexico and its 32 states are experiencing epidemiological transitions might strain health-system responsiveness and performance, which stresses the importance of timely, evidence-informed health policies and programmes linked to the health needs of each state. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública.