Assessment of the impact of forestry and leisure activities on wild boar spatial disturbance with a potential application to ASF risk of spread.

In Europe, African swine fever virus (ASFV) is one of the most threatening infectious transboundary diseases of domestic pigs and wild boar. In September 2018, ASF was detected in wild boar in the South of Belgium. France, as a bordering country, is extremely concerned about the ASF situation in Belgium, and an active preparedness is ongoing in the country. One of the questions raised by this situation relates to disturbing activities that may affect wild boar movements and their possible impact on the spread of ASFV. Despite evidence of disturbance related to hunting practices, there is a paucity of information on the impact of forestry and human leisure activities. To assess this impact on wild boar movements, a systematic review was first conducted but very few useful data were obtained. For this reason, an expert elicitation was carried out by the French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health & Safety in order to deal with this knowledge gap. A total of 30 experts originating from France and adjacent neighbouring countries (Spain, Belgium and Switzerland) were elicited about the relative importance of six factors of spatial disturbance of wild boar (noise, smell, invasion of space, modification of the environment, duration and frequency of the activity). Then, for each factor of disturbance, they were asked about the impact of 16 different commercial forestry and human leisure activities. A global weighted score was estimated in order to capture the variability of a wide range of territorial conditions and the uncertainty of expert elicitation. This estimate permitted ranking all 16 activities and aggregating them in three groups according to their potential for disturbance of wild boar, using a regression tree analysis. The results of this expert elicitation provide a methodological approach that may be useful for French and other European decision makers and stakeholders involved in the crisis management of ASF.

Assessment of pulmonary tissue responses in pigs challenged with PRRSV Lena strain shows better protection after immunization with field than vaccine strains.

The porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is plaguing porcine production. Previously piglets were immunized with a PRRSV-1 commercial modified live virus vaccine (MLV1), a PRRSV-2 MLV (MLV2) or a Western European strain (Finistere: Fini) to assess and compare the protection brought by these strains upon challenge with virulent Lena strain. Lena viremia was reduced in all the immunized groups with a slightly higher level of protection following immunization with Fini. Using lung samples collected from the same experiment, tissue response to Lena challenge was assessed at the acute and chronic stages of infection. A pre-immunization with any one of the three PRRSV strains globally exacerbated microscopic lung lesions. Ten days post-challenge (DPC), MLV1 group score was higher than unimmunized group score and 42 DPC, MLV2 group score was higher than in unimmunized group. Lowest lung Lena viral loads were measured in Fini group. Using principal component analysis, we showed 10 DPC that the lesion score was positively correlated with chemokine receptors and negatively correlated with viral load. Forty-two DPC, variables for lesion score, IL6, IL8, and CCL20 transcripts were positively correlated together and negatively correlated with CCL28, CXCL6, and CXCR4 transcripts suggesting a role for the latter ones in the tissue recovery process. In conclusions, our study shows a significant impact of the three immunizations on pulmonary tissue with the best protection against Lena challenge conferred by Fini strain. Furthermore, it gives insight into the interactions between vaccine and Fini strains and the lung upon Lena challenge.

A modelling framework based on MDP to coordinate farmers' disease control decisions at a regional scale.

The effectiveness of infectious disease control depends on the ability of health managers to act in a coordinated way. However, with regards to non-notifiable animal diseases, farmers individually decide whether or not to implement control measures, leading to positive and negative externalities for connected farms and possibly impairing disease control at a regional scale. Our objective was to facilitate the identification of optimal incentive schemes at a collective level, adaptive to the epidemiological situation, and minimizing the economic costs due to a disease and its control. We proposed a modelling framework based on Markov Decision Processes (MDP) to identify effective strategies to control PorcineReproductive andRespiratorySyndrome (PRRS), a worldwide endemicinfectiousdisease thatsignificantly impactspig farmproductivity. Using a stochastic discrete-time compartmental model representing PRRS virus spread and control within a group of pig herds, we defined the associated MDP. Using a decision-tree framework, we translated the optimal policy into a limited number of rules providing actions to be performed per 6-month time-step according to the observed system state. We evaluated the effect of varying costs and transition probabilities on optimal policy and epidemiological results. We finally identifiedan adaptive policy that gave the best net financial benefit. The proposed framework is a tool for decision support as it allows decision-makers to identify the optimal policy and to assess its robustness to variations in the values of parameters representing an impact of incentives on farmers' decisions.

Modelling Salmonella transmission among pigs from farm to slaughterhouse: Interplay between management variability and epidemiological uncertainty.

Salmonella carriage and cutaneous contamination of pigs at slaughter are a major risk for carcass contamination. They depend on Salmonella prevalence at farm, but also on transmission and skin soiling among pigs during their journey from farm to slaughterhouse. To better understand and potentially control what influences Salmonella transmission within a pig batch during this transport and lairage step, we proposed a compartmental, discrete-time and stochastic model. We calibrated the model using pork chain data from Brittany. We carried out a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of the variability in management protocols and of the uncertainty in epidemiological parameters on three model outcomes: prevalence of infection, average cutaneous contamination and number of new infections at slaughter. Each outcome is mainly influenced by a single management factor: prevalence at slaughter mainly depends on the prevalence at farm, cutaneous contamination on the contamination of lairage pens and new infections on the total duration of transport and lairage. However, these results are strongly affected by the uncertainty in epidemiological parameters. Re-excretion of carriers due to stress does not have a major impact on the number of new infections.

Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.

Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g., via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle and swine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventing outbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of market disruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on position along the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggest that trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks, which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. We assess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions from the perspectives of regulators and the market, using percolation analysis. We show that preferentially targeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when the costs to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Our study highlights the importance of assessing joint economic-epidemiological risks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade.

Alternatives to the use of antimicrobial agents in pig production: A multi-country expert-ranking of perceived effectiveness, feasibility and return on investment.

Nineteen alternatives to antimicrobial agents were ranked on perceived effectiveness, feasibility and return on investment (ROI) from 0 (not effective, not feasible, no ROI) to 10 (fully effective, completely feasible, maximum ROI) by 111 pig health experts from Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland. The top 5 measures in terms of perceived effectiveness were (1) improved internal biosecurity, (2) improved external biosecurity, (3) improved climate/environmental conditions, (4) high health/Specific Pathogen Free/disease eradication and (5) increased vaccination. The top 5 measures in terms of perceived feasibility were (1) increased vaccination, (2) increased use of anti-inflammatory products, (3) improved water quality, (4) feed quality/optimization and (5) use of zinc/metals. The top 5 measures in terms of perceived ROI were (1) improved internal biosecurity, (2) zinc/metals, (3) diagnostics/action plan, (4) feed quality/optimization and (5) climate/environmental improvements. Univariate linear regression showed that veterinary practitioners rank internal biosecurity, vaccination, use of zinc/metals, feed quality optimization and climate/environmental on average highest, while researchers and professors focused more on increased use of diagnostics and action plans. Financial incentives/penalties ranked low in all countries. Belgian respondents ranked feed quality significantly lower compared to the German respondents while reduction of stocking density was ranked higher in Belgium compared to Denmark. Categorical Principal Component Analysis applied to the average ranking supported the finding that veterinary practitioners had a preference for more practical, common and already known alternatives. The results showed that improvements in biosecurity, increased use of vaccination, use of zinc/metals, feed quality improvement and regular diagnostic testing combined with a clear action plan were perceived to be the most promising alternatives to antimicrobials in industrial pig production based on combined effectiveness, feasibility and ROI.