Antidepressants in pregnancy: applying causal epidemiological methods to understand service-use outcomes in women and long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes in exposed children.

Background: Antidepressants are commonly prescribed during pregnancy, despite a lack of evidence from randomised trials on the benefits or risks. Some studies have reported associations of antidepressants during pregnancy with adverse offspring neurodevelopment, but whether or not such associations are causal is unclear. Objectives: To study the associations of antidepressants for depression in pregnancy with outcomes using multiple methods to strengthen causal inference. Design: This was an observational cohort design using multiple methods to strengthen causal inference, including multivariable regression, propensity score matching, instrumental variable analysis, negative control exposures, comparison across indications and exposure discordant pregnancies analysis. Setting: This took place in UK general practice. Participants: Participants were pregnant women with depression. Interventions: The interventions were initiation of antidepressants in pregnancy compared with no initiation, and continuation of antidepressants in pregnancy compared with discontinuation. Main outcome measures: The maternal outcome measures were the use of primary care and secondary mental health services during pregnancy, and during four 6-month follow-up periods up to 24 months after pregnancy, and antidepressant prescription status 24 months following pregnancy. The child outcome measures were diagnosis of autism, diagnosis of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and intellectual disability. Data sources: UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Results: Data on 80,103 pregnancies were used to study maternal primary care outcomes and were linked to 34,274 children with at least 4-year follow-up for neurodevelopmental outcomes. Women who initiated or continued antidepressants during pregnancy were more likely to have contact with primary and secondary health-care services during and after pregnancy and more likely to be prescribed an antidepressant 2 years following the end of pregnancy than women who did not initiate or continue antidepressants during pregnancy (odds ratioinitiation 2.16, 95% confidence interval 1.95 to 2.39; odds ratiocontinuation 2.40, 95% confidence interval 2.27 to 2.53). There was little evidence for any substantial association with autism (odds ratiomultivariableregression 1.10, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 1.35; odds ratiopropensityscore 1.06, 95% confidence interval 0.84 to 1.32), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (odds ratiomultivariableregression 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 1.29; odds ratiopropensityscore 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 1.25) or intellectual disability (odds ratiomultivariableregression 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 1.19; odds ratiopropensityscore 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.61 to 1.31) in children of women who continued antidepressants compared with those who discontinued antidepressants. There was inconsistent evidence of an association between initiation of antidepressants in pregnancy and diagnosis of autism in offspring (odds ratiomultivariableregression 1.23, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.78; odds ratiopropensityscore 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 2.66) but not attention deficit hyperactivity disorder or intellectual disability; however, but results were imprecise owing to smaller numbers. Limitations: Several causal-inference analyses lacked precision owing to limited numbers. In addition, adherence to the prescribed treatment was not measured. Conclusions: Women prescribed antidepressants during pregnancy had greater service use during and after pregnancy than those not prescribed antidepressants. The evidence against any substantial association with autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder or intellectual disability in the children of women who continued compared with those who discontinued antidepressants in pregnancy is reassuring. Potential association of initiation of antidepressants during pregnancy with offspring autism needs further investigation. Future work: Further research on larger samples could increase the robustness and precision of these findings. These methods applied could be a template for future pharmaco-epidemiological investigation of other pregnancy-related prescribing safety concerns. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (15/80/19) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 15. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

About one in seven women experience depression during pregnancy. Left untreated, this may harm them and their unborn babies. However, the decision to take antidepressants during pregnancy is difficult because women often worry about the risks to their unborn baby. Research findings have been inconsistent, so women often do not have clear information to enable them to make informed decisions. We studied women's and children's outcomes after starting (compared with not starting) or continuing (compared with stopping) antidepressants in pregnancy. We used a large UK primary care database and several novel methods of analysis. We tracked 80,103 pregnancies of women with depression for up to 2 years after pregnancy. We also tracked 34,274 children from these pregnancies for at least 4 years to check for developmental outcomes. Women prescribed antidepressants were more likely than women not prescribed antidepressants to use general practice and mental health services during and after pregnancy, and to be prescribed antidepressants 2 years after pregnancy. This suggests that antidepressants were being prescribed to women with greater clinical need. Women who continued antidepressants in pregnancy had no higher likelihood than those who discontinued antidepressants of autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder or intellectual disability in their children. This should reassure women making the decision to continue taking their medications in pregnancy. Women who started antidepressants in pregnancy may possibly have had a slightly higher likelihood of autism in their children than those who did not start them. These findings were not seen in all analyses and were based on smaller numbers; therefore, they should be viewed with caution. Importantly, over 98 in every 100 children of women who initiated or continued antidepressants in pregnancy did not receive an autism diagnosis. The findings may help women and clinicians make informed decisions on treatment with antidepressants in pregnancy.

A Diagnostic Test Accuracy Study Investigating General Practitioner Clinical Impression and Brief Cognitive Assessments for Dementia in Primary Care, Compared to Specialized Assessment.

BACKGROUND: Many health systems are interested in increasing the number of uncomplicated and typical dementia diagnoses that are made in primary care, but the comparative accuracy of tests is unknown. OBJECTIVE: Calculate diagnostic accuracy of brief cognitive tests in primary care. METHODS: We did a diagnostic test accuracy study in general practice, in people over 70 years who had consulted their GP with cognitive symptoms but had no prior diagnosis of dementia. The reference standard was specialist assessment, adjudicated for difficult cases, according to ICD-10. We assessed 16 index tests at a research clinic, and additionally analyzed referring GPs clinical judgement. RESULTS: 240 participants had a median age of 80 years, of whom 126 were men and 132 had dementia. Sensitivity of individual tests at the recommended thresholds ranged from 56% for GP judgement (specificity 89%) to 100% for MoCA (specificity 16%). Specificity of individual tests ranged from 4% for Sniffin' sticks (sensitivity 100%) to 91% for Timed Up and Go (sensitivity 23%). The 95% centile of test duration in people with dementia ranged from 3 minutes for 6CIT and Time and Change, to 16 minutes for MoCA. Combining tests with GP judgement increased test specificity and decreased sensitivity: e.g., MoCA with GP Judgement had specificity 87% and sensitivity 55%. CONCLUSIONS: Using GP judgement to inform selection of tests was an efficient strategy. Using IQCODE in people who GPs judge as having dementia and 6CIT in people who GPs judge as having no dementia, would be a time-efficient and accurate diagnostic assessment.The original protocol for the study is available at https://bmcfampract.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12875-016-0475-2.

Caregiver burden in Parkinson's disease: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Providing informal care for a person with Parkinson's disease (PD) can be a demanding process affecting several dimensions of a caregiver's life and potentially causing caregiver burden. Despite the emerging literature on caregiver burden in people with PD, little is known about the inter-relationship between quantitative and qualitative findings. Filling this knowledge gap will provide a more holistic approach to develop and design innovations aiming at reducing or even preventing caregiver burden. This study aimed to characterize the determinants of caregiver burden among informal caregivers of persons with PD, in order to facilitate the development of tailored interventions that reduce caregiver burden. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study in The Netherlands using a sequential mixed methods approach, entailing a quantitative study of 504 persons with PD and their informal caregivers as well as a qualitative study in a representative subsample of 17 informal caregivers. The quantitative study included a standardized questionnaire of caregiver burden (Zarit Burden Inventory) and patient-related (Beck Depression Inventory, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Acceptance of Illness Scale, MDS-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part II on motor functions in daily life, Self-assessment Parkinson's Disease Disability Score), caregiver-related (Brief Coping Orientation to Problems Experience Inventory, Caregiver Activation Measurement, Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support) and interpersonal determinants (sociodemographic variables including among others gender, age, education, marital status and working status). The qualitative study consisted of semi-structured interviews. Multivariable regression and thematic analysis were used to analyse quantitative and qualitative data, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 337 caregivers were women (66.9%), and the majority of people with PD were men (N = 321, 63.7%). The mean age of persons with PD was 69.9 (standard deviation [SD] 8.1) years, and the mean disease duration was 7.2 (SD 5.2) years. A total of 366 (72.6%) persons with PD had no active employment. The mean age of informal caregivers was 67.5 (SD 9.2) years. Most informal caregivers were female (66.9%), had no active employment (65.9%) and were the spouse of the person with PD (90.7%). The mean Zarit Burden Inventory score was 15.9 (SD 11.7). The quantitative study showed that a lack of active employment of the person affected by PD was associated with a higher caregiver burden. The qualitative study revealed cognitive decline and psychological or emotional deficits of the person with PD as additional patient-related determinants of higher caregiver burden. The following caregiver-related and interpersonal determinants were associated with higher caregiver burden: low social support (quantitative study), concerns about the future (qualitative study), the caregiving-induced requirement of restrictions in everyday life (qualitative study), changes in the relationship with the person with PD (qualitative study) and a problem-focused or avoidant coping style (both studies). Integration of both data strands revealed that qualitative findings expanded quantitative findings by (1) distinguishing between the impact of the relationship with the person with PD and the relationship with others on perceived social support, (2) revealing the impact of non-motor symptoms next to motor symptoms and (3) revealing the following additional factors impacting caregiver burden: concern about the future, perceived restrictions and limitations in performing daily activities due to the disease, and negative feelings and emotional well-being. Qualitative findings were discordant with the quantitative finding demonstrating that problem-focused was associated with a higher caregiver burden. Factor analyses showed three sub-dimensions of the Zarit Burden Inventory: (i) role intensity and resource strain, (2) social restriction and anger and (3) self-criticism. Quantitative analysis showed that avoidant coping was a determinant for all three subscales, whereas problem-solved coping and perceived social support were significant predictors on two subscales, role intensity and resource strain and self-criticism. CONCLUSIONS: The burden experienced by informal caregivers of persons with PD is determined by a complex interplay of patient-related, caregiver-related and interpersonal characteristics. Our study highlights the utility of a mixed-methods approach to unravel the multidimensional burden experienced by informal caregivers of persons with chronic disease. We also offer starting points for the development of a tailored supportive approach for caregivers.

Organisational factors associated with hospital costs and patient mortality in the 365 days following hip fracture in England and Wales (REDUCE): a record-linkage cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Hip fracture care delivery varies between hospitals, which might explain variations in patient outcomes and health costs. The aim of this study was to identify hospital-level organisational factors associated with long-term patient outcomes and costs after hip fracture. METHODS: REDUCE was a record-linkage cohort study in which national databases for all patients aged 60 years and older who sustained a hip fracture in England and Wales were linked with hospital metrics from 18 organisational data sources. Multilevel models identified organisational factors associated with the case-mix adjusted primary outcomes: cumulative all-cause mortality, days spent in hospital, and inpatient costs over 365 days after hip fracture. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2016, and March 31, 2019, 178 757 patients with an index hip fracture were identified from 172 hospitals in England and Wales. 126 278 (70·6%) were female, 52 479 (29·4%) were male, and median age was 84 years (IQR 77-89) in England and 83 years (77-89) in Wales. 365 days after hip fracture, 50 354 (28·2%) patients had died. Patients spent a median 21 days (IQR 11-41) in hospital, incurring costs of £14 642 (95% CI 14 600-14 683) per patient, ranging from £10 867 (SD 5880) to £23 188 (17 223) between hospitals. 11 organisational factors were independently associated with mortality, 24 with number of days in hospital, and 25 with inpatient costs. Having all patients assessed by an orthogeriatrician within 72 h of admission was associated with a mean cost saving of £529 (95% CI 148-910) per patient and a lower 365-day mortality (odds ratio 0·85 [95% CI 0·76-0·94]). Consultant orthogeriatrician attendance at clinical governance meetings was associated with cost savings of £356 (95% CI 188-525) and 1·47 fewer days (95% CI 0·89-2·05) in the hospital in the 365 days after hip fracture per patient. The provision of physiotherapy to patients on weekends was associated with a cost saving of £676 (95% CI 67-1285) per patient and with 2·32 fewer days (0·35-4·29) in hospital in the 365 days after hip fracture. INTERPRETATION: Multiple, potentially modifiable hospital-level organisational factors associated with important clinical outcomes and inpatient costs were identified that should inform initiatives to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of hip fracture services. FUNDING: Versus Arthritis.

Inequalities in provision of hip and knee replacement surgery for osteoarthritis by age, sex, and social deprivation in England between 2007-2017: A population-based cohort study of the National Joint Registry.

BACKGROUND: While the United Kingdom National Health Service aimed to reduce social inequalities in the provision of joint replacement, it is unclear whether these gaps have reduced. We describe secular trends in the provision of primary hip and knee replacement surgery between social deprivation groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the National Joint Registry to identify all hip and knee replacements performed for osteoarthritis from 2007 to 2017 in England. The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2015 was used to identify the relative level of deprivation of the patient living area. Multilevel negative binomial regression models were used to model the differences in rates of joint replacement. Choropleth maps of hip and knee replacement provision were produced to identify the geographical variation in provision by Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs). A total of 675,342 primary hip and 834,146 primary knee replacements were studied. The mean age was 70 years old (standard deviation: 9) with 60% and 56% of women undergoing hip and knee replacements, respectively. The overall rate of hip replacement increased from 27 to 36 per 10,000 person-years and knee replacement from 33 to 46. Inequalities of provision between the most (reference) and least affluent areas have remained constant for both joints (hip: rate ratio (RR) = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [0.56, 0.60] in 2007, RR = 0.59 [0.58, 0.61] in 2017; knee: RR = 0.82 [0.80, 0.85] in 2007, RR = 0.81 [0.80, 0.83] in 2017). For hip replacement, CCGs with the highest concentration of deprived areas had lower overall provision rates, and CCGs with very few deprived areas had higher provision rates. There was no clear pattern of provision inequalities between CCGs and deprivation concentration for knee replacement. Study limitations include the lack of publicly available information to explore these inequalities beyond age, sex, and geographical area. Information on clinical need for surgery or patient willingness to access care were unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that there were inequalities, which remained constant over time, especially in the provision of hip replacement, by degree of social deprivation. Providers of healthcare need to take action to reduce this unwarranted variation in provision of surgery.

The high-volume haemodiafiltration vs high-flux haemodialysis registry trial (H4RT): a multi-centre, unblinded, randomised, parallel-group, superiority study to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of high-volume haemodiafiltration and high-flux haemodialysis in people with kidney failure on maintenance dialysis using linkage to routine healthcare databases for outcomes.

BACKGROUND: More than a third of the 65,000 people living with kidney failure in the UK attend a dialysis unit 2-5 times a week to have their blood cleaned for 3-5 h. In haemodialysis (HD), toxins are removed by diffusion, which can be enhanced using a high-flux dialyser. This can be augmented with convection, as occurs in haemodiafiltration (HDF), and improved outcomes have been reported in people who are able to achieve high volumes of convection. This study compares the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of high-volume HDF compared with high-flux HD in the treatment of kidney failure. METHODS: This is a UK-based, multi-centre, non-blinded randomised controlled trial. Adult patients already receiving HD or HDF will be randomised 1:1 to high-volume HDF (aiming for 21+ L of substitution fluid adjusted for body surface area) or high-flux HD. Exclusion criteria include lack of capacity to consent, life expectancy less than 3 months, on HD/HDF for less than 4 weeks, planned living kidney donor transplant or home dialysis scheduled within 3 months, prior intolerance of HDF and not suitable for high-volume HDF for other clinical reasons. The primary outcome is a composite of non-cancer mortality or hospital admission with a cardiovascular event or infection during follow-up (minimum 32 months, maximum 91 months) determined from routine data. Secondary outcomes include all-cause mortality, cardiovascular- and infection-related morbidity and mortality, health-related quality of life, cost-effectiveness and environmental impact. Baseline data will be collected by research personnel on-site. Follow-up data will be collected by linkage to routine healthcare databases - Hospital Episode Statistics, Civil Registration, Public Health England and the UK Renal Registry (UKRR) in England, and equivalent databases in Scotland and Wales, as necessary - and centrally administered patient-completed questionnaires. In addition, research personnel on-site will monitor for adverse events and collect data on adherence to the protocol (monthly during recruitment and quarterly during follow-up). DISCUSSION: This study will provide evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HD as compared to HDF for adults with kidney failure in-centre HD or HDF. It will inform management for this patient group in the UK and internationally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN10997319 . Registered on 10 October 2017.

Rationale and design to evaluate the PRIME Parkinson care model: a prospective observational evaluation of proactive, integrated and patient-centred Parkinson care in The Netherlands (PRIME-NL).

BACKGROUND: Culminating evidence shows that current care does not optimally meet the needs of persons with parkinsonism, their carers and healthcare professionals. Recently, a new model of care was developed to address the limitations of usual care: Proactive and Integrated Management and Empowerment in Parkinson's Disease (PRIME Parkinson). From 2021 onwards, PRIME Parkinson care will replace usual care in a well-defined region in The Netherlands. The utility of PRIME Parkinson care will be evaluated on a single primary endpoint (parkinsonism-related complications), which reflects the health of people with parkinsonism. Furthermore, several secondary endpoints will be measured for four dimensions: health, patient and carer experience, healthcare professional experience, and cost of healthcare. The reference will be usual care, which will be continued in other regions in The Netherlands. METHODS: This is a prospective observational study which will run from January 1, 2020 until December 31, 2023. Before the new model of care will replace the usual care in the PRIME Parkinson care region all baseline assessments will take place. Outcomes will be informed by two data sources. We will use healthcare claims-based data to evaluate the primary endpoint, and costs of healthcare, in all persons with parkinsonism receiving PRIME Parkinson care (estimated number: 2,000) and all persons with parkinsonism receiving usual care in the other parts of The Netherlands (estimated number: 48,000). We will also evaluate secondary endpoints by performing annual questionnaire-based assessments. These assessments will be administered to a subsample across both regions (estimated numbers: 1,200 persons with parkinsonism, 600 carers and 250 healthcare professionals). DISCUSSION: This prospective cohort study will evaluate the utility of a novel integrated model of care for persons with parkinsonism in The Netherlands. We anticipate that the results of this study will also provide insight for the delivery of care to persons with parkinsonism in other regions and may inform the design of a similar model for other chronic health conditions.

Development of an intervention to improve access to living-donor kidney transplantation (the ASK study).

A living-donor kidney transplant (LDKT) is one of the best treatments for kidney failure. The UK's LDKT activity falls behind that of many other countries, and there is evidence of socioeconomic inequity in access. We aimed to develop a UK-specific multicomponent intervention to support eligible individuals to access a LDKT. The intervention was designed to support those who are socioeconomically-deprived and currently disadvantaged, by targeting mediators of inequity identified in earlier work. We identified three existing interventions in the literature which target these mediators: a) the Norway model (healthcare practitioners contact patients' family with information about kidney donation), b) a home education model, and c) a Transplant candidate advocate model. We undertook intervention development using the Person-Based Approach (PBA). We performed in-depth qualitative interviews with people with advanced kidney disease (n = 13), their family members (n = 4), and renal and transplant healthcare practitioners (n = 15), analysed using thematic analysis. We investigated participant views on each proposed intervention component. We drafted intervention resources and revised these in light of comments from qualitative 'think-aloud' interviews. Four general themes were identified: i) Perceived cultural and societal norms; ii) Influence of family on decision-making; iii) Resource limitation, and iv) Evidence of effectiveness. For each intervention discussed, we identified three themes: for the Norway model: i) Overcoming communication barriers and assumptions; ii) Request from an official third party, and iii) Risk of coercion; for the home education model: i) Intragroup dynamics; ii) Avoidance of hospital, and iii) Burdens on participants; and for the transplant candidate advocates model: i) Vested interest of advocates; ii) Time commitment, and iii) Risk of misinformation. We used these results to develop a multicomponent intervention which comprises components from existing interventions that have been adapted to increase acceptability and engagement in a UK population. This will be evaluated in a future randomised controlled trial.

Bisphosphonates to reduce bone fractures in stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease: a propensity score-matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Bisphosphonates are contraindicated in patients with stage 4+ chronic kidney disease. However, they are widely used to prevent fragility fractures in stage 3 chronic kidney disease, despite a lack of good-quality data on their effects. OBJECTIVES: The aims of each work package were as follows. Work package 1: to study the relationship between bisphosphonate use and chronic kidney disease progression. Work package 2: to study the association between using bisphosphonates and fracture risk. Work package 3: to determine the risks of hypocalcaemia, hypophosphataemia, acute kidney injury and upper gastrointestinal events associated with using bisphosphonates. Work package 4: to investigate the association between using bisphosphonates and changes in bone mineral density over time. DESIGN: This was a new-user cohort study design with propensity score matching. SETTING AND DATA SOURCES: Data were obtained from UK NHS primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database) and linked hospital inpatient records (Hospital Episode Statistics) for work packages 1-3 and from the Danish Odense University Hospital Databases for work package 4. PARTICIPANTS: Patients registered in the data sources who had at least one measurement of estimated glomerular filtration rate of < 45 ml/minute/1.73 m2 were eligible. A second estimated glomerular filtration rate value of < 45 ml/minute/1.73 m2 within 1 year after the first was requested for work packages 1 and 3. Patients with no Hospital Episode Statistics linkage were excluded from work packages 1-3. Patients with < 1 year of run-in data before index estimated glomerular filtration rate and previous users of anti-osteoporosis medications were excluded from work packages 1-4. INTERVENTIONS/EXPOSURE: Bisphosphonate use, identified from primary care prescriptions (for work packages 1-3) or pharmacy dispensations (for work package 4), was the main exposure. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Work package 1: chronic kidney disease progression, defined as stage worsening or starting renal replacement. Work package 2: hip fracture. Work package 3: acute kidney injury, hypocalcaemia and hypophosphataemia identified from Hospital Episode Statistics, and gastrointestinal events identified from Clinical Practice Research Datalink or Hospital Episode Statistics. Work package 4: annualised femoral neck bone mineral density percentage change. RESULTS: Bisphosphonate use was associated with an excess risk of chronic kidney disease progression (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.24) in work package 1, but did not increase the probability of other safety outcomes in work package 3. The results from work package 2 suggested that bisphosphonate use increased fracture risk (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.39) for hip fractures, but sensitivity analyses suggested that this was related to unresolved confounding. Conversely, work package 4 suggested that bisphosphonates improved bone mineral density, with an average 2.65% (95% confidence interval 1.32% to 3.99%) greater gain in femoral neck bone mineral density per year in bisphosphonate users than in matched non-users. LIMITATIONS: Confounding by indication was a concern for the clinical effectiveness (i.e. work package 2) data. Bias analyses suggested that these findings were due to inappropriate adjustment for pre-treatment risk. work packages 3 and 4 were based on small numbers of events and participants, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Bisphosphonates were associated with a 12% excess risk of chronic kidney disease progression in participants with stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease. No other safety concerns were identified. Bisphosphonate therapy increased bone mineral density, but the research team failed to demonstrate antifracture effectiveness. FUTURE WORK: Randomised controlled trial data are needed to demonstrate antifracture efficacy in patients with stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease. More safety analyses are needed to characterise the renal toxicity of bisphosphonates in stage 3A chronic kidney disease, possibly using observational data. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as EUPAS10029. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. The project was also supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford.

RATIONALE AND AIMS: Bisphosphonates are used to prevent fractures in people with fragile bones. People with chronic kidney disease have a high risk of fracturing, but the safety and effectiveness of bisphosphonates in severe chronic kidney disease is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the benefits (e.g. bone strength improvement and fracture prevention) and the risks of unwanted effects associated with bisphosphonates for people with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease. METHODS: Anonymised primary and secondary care electronic medical records data from the UK NHS were used, as well as a Danish equivalent that included bone density scans. Anyone in these databases with a measure of reduced kidney function that suggested moderate to severe chronic kidney disease was eligible, which was > 220,000 people from the UK. Over 20,000 of them used bisphosphonates. Bisphosphonate users were matched to non-users with similar age, sex and other characteristics. RESULTS: Bisphosphonate users had a 12% higher risk of their chronic kidney disease getting worse than non-users. Their risks of other side effects, such as acute kidney injuries and gastrointestinal problems, did not change. Bisphosphonate users had a 25% higher risk of fractures than non-users in the UK database, probably because the matching methods did not create similar-enough groups of users and non-users. However, it was found that bisphosphonate improved bone density in the Danish database. Bone density is a proxy for bone strength, so better bone density should mean fewer fractures. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that bisphosphonate therapy may make moderate to severe chronic kidney disease worse. More studies are needed on how bisphosphonates affect milder chronic kidney disease. Bisphosphonates were associated with better bone strength, but it could not be demonstrated that they reduced fracture risk. More data are required, probably from a placebo-controlled trial, to determine whether or not bisphosphonates prevent fractures in people with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease and whether or not this is worth the risk of their chronic kidney disease worsening.

Economic evaluation of GPs' direct access to computed tomography for identification of brain tumours.

BACKGROUND: When GPs suspect a brain tumour, a referral for specialist assessment and subsequent brain imaging is generally the first option. NICE has recommended that GPs have rapid direct access to brain imaging for adults with progressive sub-acute loss of central nervous function; however, no studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness. METHODS: We developed a cost-effectiveness model based on data from one region of the UK with direct access computed tomography (DACT), routine data from GP records and the literature, to explore whether unrestricted DACT for patients with suspected brain tumour might be more cost-effective than criteria-based DACT or no DACT. RESULTS: Although criteria-based DACT allows some patients without brain tumour to avoid imaging, our model suggests this may increase costs of diagnosis due to non-specific risk criteria and high costs of diagnosing or 'ruling out' brain tumours by other pathways. For patients diagnosed with tumours, differences in outcomes between the three diagnostic strategies are small. CONCLUSIONS: Unrestricted DACT may reduce diagnostic costs; however, the evidence is not strong and further controlled studies are required. Criteria-based access to CT for GPs might reduce demand for DACT, but imperfect sensitivity and specificity of current risk stratification mean that it will not necessarily be cost-effective.

Metabolic profiles of socio-economic position: a multi-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Low socio-economic position (SEP) is a risk factor for multiple health outcomes, but its molecular imprints in the body remain unclear. METHODS: We examined SEP as a determinant of serum nuclear magnetic resonance metabolic profiles in ∼30 000 adults and 4000 children across 10 UK and Finnish cohort studies. RESULTS: In risk-factor-adjusted analysis of 233 metabolic measures, low educational attainment was associated with 37 measures including higher levels of triglycerides in small high-density lipoproteins (HDL) and lower levels of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), omega-3 fatty acids, apolipoprotein A1, large and very large HDL particles (including levels of their respective lipid constituents) and cholesterol measures across different density lipoproteins. Among adults whose father worked in manual occupations, associations with apolipoprotein A1, large and very large HDL particles and HDL-2 cholesterol remained after adjustment for SEP in later life. Among manual workers, levels of glutamine were higher compared with non-manual workers. All three indicators of low SEP were associated with lower DHA, omega-3 fatty acids and HDL diameter. At all ages, children of manual workers had lower levels of DHA as a proportion of total fatty acids. CONCLUSIONS: Our work indicates that social and economic factors have a measurable impact on human physiology. Lower SEP was independently associated with a generally unfavourable metabolic profile, consistent across ages and cohorts. The metabolites we found to be associated with SEP, including DHA, are known to predict cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline in later life and may contribute to health inequalities.

Investigating Ethnic Disparity in Living-Donor Kidney Transplantation in the UK: Patient-Identified Reasons for Non-Donation among Family Members.

There is ethnic inequity in access to living-donor kidney transplants in the UK. This study asked kidney patients from Black, Asian and minority ethnic groups why members of their family were not able to be living kidney donors. Responses were compared with responses from White individuals. This questionnaire-based mixed-methods study included adults transplanted between 1/4/13-31/3/17 at 14 UK hospitals. Participants were asked to indicate why relatives could not donate, selecting all options applicable from: Age; Health; Weight; Location; Financial/Cost; Job; Blood group; No-one to care for them after donation. A box entitled 'Other-please give details' was provided for free-text entries. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyse the association between the likelihood of selecting each reason for non-donation and the participant's self-reported ethnicity. Qualitative responses were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. In total, 1240 questionnaires were returned (40% response). There was strong evidence that Black, Asian and minority ethnic group individuals were more likely than White people to indicate that family members lived too far away to donate (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 3.25, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.30-4.58), were prevented from donating by financial concerns (aOR = 2.95, 95% CI 2.02-4.29), were unable to take time off work (aOR = 1.88, 95% CI 1.18-3.02), were "not the right blood group" (aOR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.35-2.01), or had no-one to care for them post-donation (aOR = 3.73, 95% CI 2.60-5.35). Four qualitative themes were identified from responses from Black, Asian and minority ethnic group participants: 'Burden of disease within the family'; 'Differing religious interpretations'; 'Geographical concerns'; and 'A culture of silence'. Patients perceive barriers to living kidney donation in the UK Black, Asian and minority ethnic population. If confirmed, these could be targeted by interventions to redress the observed ethnic inequity.

Interventions to reduce the time to diagnosis of brain tumours.

BACKGROUND: Brain tumours are recognised as one of the most difficult cancers to diagnose because presenting symptoms, such as headache, cognitive symptoms, and seizures, may be more commonly attributable to other, more benign conditions. Interventions to reduce the time to diagnosis of brain tumours include national awareness initiatives, expedited pathways, and protocols to diagnose brain tumours, based on a person's presenting symptoms and signs; and interventions to reduce waiting times for brain imaging pathways. If such interventions reduce the time to diagnosis, it may make it less likely that people experience clinical deterioration, and different treatment options may be available. OBJECTIVES: To systematically evaluate evidence on the effectiveness of interventions that may influence: symptomatic participants to present early (shortening the patient interval), thresholds for primary care referral (shortening the primary care interval), and time to imaging diagnosis (shortening the secondary care interval and diagnostic interval). To produce a brief economic commentary, summarising the economic evaluations relevant to these interventions. SEARCH METHODS: For evidence on effectiveness, we searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and Embase from January 2000 to January 2020; Clinicaltrials.gov to May 2020, and conference proceedings from 2014 to 2018. For economic evidence, we searched the UK National Health Services Economic Evaluation Database from 2000 to December 2014. SELECTION CRITERIA: We planned to include studies evaluating any active intervention that may influence the diagnostic pathway, e.g. clinical guidelines, direct access imaging, public health campaigns, educational initiatives, and other interventions that might lead to early identification of primary brain tumours. We planned to include randomised and non-randomised comparative studies. Included studies would include people of any age, with a presentation that might suggest a brain tumour. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed titles identified by the search strategy, and the full texts of potentially eligible studies. We resolved discrepancies through discussion or, if required, by consulting another review author. MAIN RESULTS: We did not identify any studies for inclusion in this review. We excluded 115 studies. The main reason for exclusion of potentially eligible intervention studies was their study design, due to a lack of control groups. We found no economic evidence to inform a brief economic commentary on this topic. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In this version of the review, we did not identify any studies that met the review inclusion criteria for either effectiveness or cost-effectiveness. Therefore, there is no evidence from good quality studies on the best strategies to reduce the time to diagnosis of brain tumours, despite the prioritisation of research on early diagnosis by the James Lind Alliance in 2015. This review highlights the need for research in this area.

Mediators of Socioeconomic Inequity in Living-donor Kidney Transplantation: Results From a UK Multicenter Case-Control Study.

There is evidence of socioeconomic inequity in access to living-donor kidney transplantation, but limited evidence as to why. We investigated possible mediators of the inequity. METHODS: This questionnaire-based case-control study included 14 UK hospitals. Participants were adults transplanted between April 1, 2013 and March 31, 2017. Living-donor kidney transplant (LDKT) recipients (cases) were compared with deceased-donor kidney transplant recipients (controls). We collected data on mediators identified in earlier qualitative work: perceived social support (Interpersonal Support Evaluation List shortened version-12), patient activation (Patient Activation Measure 13), and LDKT knowledge (Rotterdam Renal Replacement Knowledge Test). We performed mediation analyses to investigate what proportion of the effect of socioeconomic position (education and income) on case-control status was mediated by these variables. RESULTS: One thousand two-hundred and forty questionnaires were returned (40% response). Receipt of an LDKT over a deceased-donor kidney transplant was associated with higher socioeconomic position [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) university degree versus no degree aOR = 1.48 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.84), P = 0.001 and aOR per +£1000 increase in monthly household income after tax 1.14 (95% CI, 1.11-1.17), P < 0.001] higher perceived social support (aOR per +1-point Interpersonal Support Evaluation List shortened version-12 score = 1.05 (95% CI, 1.03-1.08), P < 0.001), higher levels of patient activation (aOR per +1 patient activation measure level = 1.35 (95% CI, 1.24-1.48), P < 0.001), and greater LDKT knowledge (aOR per + 1-point Rotterdam Renal Replacement Knowledge Test score = 1.59 (95% CI, 1.49-1.69), P < 0.001). Mediation analyses revealed that perceived social support, patient activation, and LDKT knowledge together mediate 48.5% (95% CI, 12.7-84.3, P = 0.008) of the association between university education and LDKT status, and 46.0% (95% CI, 28.7-63.4, P < 0.001) of the association between income and LDKT status. CONCLUSIONS: LDKT knowledge, perceived social support, and patient activation are associated with the socioeconomic position of people with kidney disease, and mediate approximately 50% of the association between the socioeconomic position and receipt of an LDKT. Interventions that target these factors may redress observed socioeconomic inequity.

Social determinants of multimorbidity and multiple functional limitations among the ageing population of England, 2002-2015.

This study explores longitudinal relationships between material, psycho-social and behavioural social determinants of health and multimorbidity of people aged 50 years or older in England. We used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing collected biannually between 2002 and 2015. Apart from the basic measure of multimorbidity (two or more diseases within a person) we constructed two distinct measures of health in order to take into account the biology of ageing (complex multimorbidity and multiple functional limitations). We found that the likelihood of multimorbidity and multiple functional limitations was consistently associated with the levels of household wealth, sense of control over one's life, physical activity and loneliness. Larger health inequalities were observed when health was measured as complex multimorbidity and multiple functional limitations than basic multimorbidity. Compared to the population group with the highest wealth, those with the lowest wealth had 47% higher odds of basic multimorbidity (95% C.I. 1.34-1.61), 73% higher odds of complex multimorbidity (95% C.I. 1.52-1.96) and 90% higher odds of having 10 or more functional limitations (95% C.I. 1.59-2.26). We did not find a dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption, smoking and multimorbidity but rather evidence of people in ill health actively moderating their health behaviour. We suggest that materialist models of multimorbidity and functional limitation at older age can not, on their own, explain the health inequalities as the behavioural and psycho-social factors play an important role. Policies aiming to reduce the risk of multimorbidity and functional limitation should address the issue at these three levels simultaneously, using the existing national infrastructure of General Practices.

The Consortium of Metabolomics Studies (COMETS): Metabolomics in 47 Prospective Cohort Studies.

The Consortium of Metabolomics Studies (COMETS) was established in 2014 to facilitate large-scale collaborative research on the human metabolome and its relationship with disease etiology, diagnosis, and prognosis. COMETS comprises 47 cohorts from Asia, Europe, North America, and South America that together include more than 136,000 participants with blood metabolomics data on samples collected from 1985 to 2017. Metabolomics data were provided by 17 different platforms, with the most frequently used labs being Metabolon, Inc. (14 cohorts), the Broad Institute (15 cohorts), and Nightingale Health (11 cohorts). Participants have been followed for a median of 23 years for health outcomes including death, cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and others; many of the studies are ongoing. Available exposure-related data include common clinical measurements and behavioral factors, as well as genome-wide genotype data. Two feasibility studies were conducted to evaluate the comparability of metabolomics platforms used by COMETS cohorts. The first study showed that the overlap between any 2 different laboratories ranged from 6 to 121 metabolites at 5 leading laboratories. The second study showed that the median Spearman correlation comparing 111 overlapping metabolites captured by Metabolon and the Broad Institute was 0.79 (interquartile range, 0.56-0.89).

Assessing the long-term effectiveness of interferon-beta and glatiramer acetate in multiple sclerosis: final 10-year results from the UK multiple sclerosis risk-sharing scheme.

BACKGROUND: Because multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease causing disability over decades, it is crucial to know if the short-term effects of disease-modifying therapies reported in randomised controlled trials reduce long-term disability. This 10-year prospective observational study of disability outcomes (Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and utility) was set up, in conjunction with a risk-sharing agreement between payers and producers, to investigate this issue. METHODS: The outcomes of the UK treated patients were compared with a modelled untreated control based on the British Columbia MS data set to assess the long-term effectiveness of these treatments. Two complementary analysis models were used: a multilevel model (MLM) and a continuous Markov model. RESULTS: 4862 patients with MS were eligible for the primary analysis (mean and median follow-up times 8.7 and 10 years). EDSS worsening was reduced by 28% (MLM), 7% (Markov) and 24% time-adjusted Markov in the total cohort, and by 31% (MLM) and 14% (Markov) for relapsing remitting patients. The utility worsening was reduced by 23%-24% in the total cohort and by 24%-31% in the RR patients depending on the model used. All sensitivity analyses showed a treatment effect. There was a 4-year (CI 2.7 to 5.3) delay to EDSS 6.0. An apparent waning of treatment effect with time was seen. Subgroup analyses suggested better treatment effects in those treated earlier and with lower EDSS scores. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports a beneficial effect on long-term disability with first-line MS disease-modifying treatments, which is clinically meaningful. However the waning effect noted requires further study.

Age-related inequalities in colon cancer treatment persist over time: a population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Older people experience poorer outcomes from colon cancer. We examined if treatment for colon cancer was related to age and if inequalities changed over time. METHODS: Data from the UK population-based Northern and Yorkshire Cancer Registry on 31 910 incident colon cancers (ICD10 C18) diagnosed between 1999-2010 were obtained. Likelihood of receipt of: (1) cancer-directed surgery, (2) chemotherapy in surgical patients, (3) chemotherapy in non-surgical patients by age, adjusting for sex, area deprivation, cancer stage, comorbidity and period of diagnosis, was examined. RESULTS: Age-related inequalities in treatment exist after adjustment for confounding factors. Patients aged 60- 69, 70-79 and 80+ years were significantly less likely to receive surgery than those aged <60 years (multivariable ORs (95% CI) 0.84(0.74 to 0.95), 0.54(0.48 to 0.61) and 0.19(0.17 to 0.21), respectively). Age-related differences in receipt of surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy (but not chemotherapy in non-surgical patients) narrowed over time for the 'younger old' (aged <80 years) but did not diminish for the oldest patients. CONCLUSIONS: Age inequality in treatment of colon cancer remains after adjustment for confounders, suggesting age remains a major factor in treatment decisions. Research is needed to better understand the cancer treatment decision-making process, and how to influence this, for older patients.

Associations with Wellbeing and Medication Adherence in Young Adults Receiving Kidney Replacement Therapy.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Young adults receiving kidney replacement therapy (KRT) have impaired quality of life and may exhibit low medication adherence. We tested the hypothesis that wellbeing and medication adherence are associated with psychosocial factors. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We conducted a cross-sectional online survey for young adults on KRT. Additional clinical information was obtained from the UK Renal Registry. We compared outcomes by treatment modality using age- and sex-adjusted regression models, having applied survey weights to account for response bias by sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. We used multivariable linear regression to examine psychosocial associations with scores on the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale and the eight-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale. RESULTS: We recruited 976 young adults and 64% responded to the survey; 417 (71%) with transplants and 173 (29%) on dialysis. Wellbeing was positively associated with extraversion, openness, independence, and social support, and negatively associated with neuroticism, negative body image, stigma, psychologic morbidity, and dialysis. Higher medication adherence was associated with living with parents, conscientiousness, physician access satisfaction, patient activation, age, and male sex, and lower adherence was associated with comorbidity, dialysis, education, ethnicity, and psychologic morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Wellbeing and medication adherence were both associated with psychologic morbidity in young adults. Dialysis treatment is associated with poorer wellbeing and medication adherence.