Assessment of portal hypertension severity using machine learning models in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In individuals with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), the severity of portal hypertension (PH) determines the risk of decompensation. Invasive measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is the diagnostic gold standard for PH. We evaluated the utility of machine learning models (MLMs) based on standard laboratory parameters to predict the severity of PH in individuals with cACLD. METHODS: A detailed laboratory workup of individuals with cACLD recruited from the Vienna cohort (NCT03267615) was utilised to predict clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH, i.e., HVPG ≥10 mmHg) and severe PH (i.e., HVPG ≥16 mmHg). The MLMs were then evaluated in individual external datasets and optimised in the merged cohort. RESULTS: Among 1,232 participants with cACLD, the prevalence of CSPH/severe PH was similar in the Vienna (n = 163, 67.4%/35.0%) and validation (n = 1,069, 70.3%/34.7%) cohorts. The MLMs were based on 3 (3P: platelet count, bilirubin, international normalised ratio) or 5 (5P: +cholinesterase, +gamma-glutamyl transferase, +activated partial thromboplastin time replacing international normalised ratio) laboratory parameters. The MLMs performed robustly in the Vienna cohort. 5P-MLM had the best AUCs for CSPH (0.813) and severe PH (0.887) and compared favourably to liver stiffness measurement (AUC: 0.808). Their performance in external validation datasets was heterogeneous (AUCs: 0.589-0.887). Training on the merged cohort optimised model performance for CSPH (AUCs for 3P and 5P: 0.775 and 0.789, respectively) and severe PH (0.737 and 0.828, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Internally trained MLMs reliably predicted PH severity in the Vienna cACLD cohort but exhibited heterogeneous results on external validation. The proposed 3P/5P online tool can reliably identify individuals with CSPH or severe PH, who are thus at risk of hepatic decompensation. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: We used machine learning models based on widely available laboratory parameters to develop a non-invasive model to predict the severity of portal hypertension in individuals with compensated cirrhosis, who currently require invasive measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient. We validated our findings in a large multicentre cohort of individuals with advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) of any cause. Finally, we provide a readily available online calculator, based on 3 (platelet count, bilirubin, international normalised ratio) or 5 (platelet count, bilirubin, activated partial thromboplastin time, gamma-glutamyltransferase, choline-esterase) widely available laboratory parameters, that clinicians can use to predict the likelihood of their patients with cACLD having clinically significant or severe portal hypertension.

Direct and Indirect Costs of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Ten Years of Follow-up in a Danish Population-based Inception Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease [IBD], encompassing Crohn's disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC], places a high burden on health care resources. To date, no study has assessed the combined direct and indirect cost of IBD in a population-based setting. Our aim was to assess this in a population-based inception cohort with 10 years of follow-up. METHODS: All incident patients diagnosed with CD or UC, 2003-2004, in a well-defined area of Copenhagen, were followed prospectively until 2015. Direct and indirect costs were retrieved from Danish national registries. Data were compared with a control population [1:20]. Associations between the costs and multiple variables were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 513 (CD: 213 [42%], UC: 300 [58%]) IBD patients were included. No significant differences were found in indirect costs between CD, UC, and the control population. Costs for CD patients were significantly higher than those for UC regarding all direct expenditures (except for5-aminosalicylates [5-ASA] and diagnostic expenses). Biologics accounted for €1.6 and €0.3 million for CD and UC, respectively. The total costs amounted to €42.6 million. Only patients with extensive colitis had significantly higher direct costs (proctitis: €2273 [1341-4092], left-sided: €3606 [2354-5311], extensive: €4093 [2313-6057], p <0.001). No variables were significantly associated with increased total costs in CD or in UC patients. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective population-based cohort, direct costs for IBD remain high. However, indirect costs did not surpass the control population. Total costs were mainly driven by hospitalisation, but indirect costs accounted for a higher percentage overall, although these did decrease over time. PODCAST: This article has an associated podcast which can be accessed at https://academic.oup.com/ecco-jcc/pages/podcast.

Pronounced Coronary Arteriosclerosis in Cirrhosis: Influence on Cardiac Function and Survival?

BACKGROUND: The relation between excessive alcohol consumption and coronary arteriosclerosis has remained controversial. The etiology of cirrhosis has been considered a substantial risk factor for development of arteriosclerotic lesions. The coronary artery calcium-score derived from coronary CT angiography is a robust marker of coronary arteriosclerosis. AIMS: To study the burden of coronary arteriosclerosis in cirrhotic patients of various etiologies and association to cardiac dysfunction and survival. METHODS: Fifty-seven patients with cirrhosis without cardiovascular disease underwent coronary CT angiography, tissue Doppler echocardiography, electrocardiogram and registration of clinical and biochemical characteristics. RESULTS: In patients with cirrhosis the median coronary artery calcium-score was increased in comparison with age and race-adjusted healthy reference values (men: 328 vs. 9 HU and women: 136 vs. 0 HU; p < 0.001). Moreover, the coronary artery calcium-score in alcohol-related cirrhosis was significantly higher than in nonalcohol-related cirrhosis (362 vs. 46 HU, p < 0.001). Coronary artery calcium-score correlated with age (p = 0.002) but not with established cardiovascular risk factors including smoking, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, gender, or hypercholesterolemia. Coronary artery calcium-score was associated with diastolic dysfunction, lateral e´ (p = 0.025), but not with other markers of cardiac dysfunction. During a median follow-up of 25 months 12 patients (21%) died but coronary artery calcium-score was not associated with survival. CONCLUSIONS: Coronary arteriosclerosis was particular extensive in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. However, the current results suggest that coronary arteriosclerosis only have limited influence on cardiac function and survival. Surprisingly, no other established risk factors apart from age seemed to interfere with coronary arteriosclerosis in cirrhotic patients.

Assessment of response to beta-blockers by expression of ßArr2 and RhoA/ROCK2 in antrum mucosa in cirrhotic patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-selective beta-blockers (NSBB) are first choice for prevention of variceal bleeding. But possible deleterious effects in refractory ascites and frequent non-response are clinical drawbacks. Since levels of vasoactive proteins in antrum mucosa reflect vascular dysfunction in cirrhosis, these expression levels might also reflect hemodynamic response to NSBB. METHODS: Biopsies from the gastric and duodenal mucosa of 25 patients with cirrhosis were collected and the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) was measured before and after an acute propranolol challenge. Transcription and protein expression of Ras homolog family member A (RhoA), Rho-kinase (ROCK)2, beta-arrestin2 (ßArr2), endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) and the phosphorylation of downstream effectors VASP and moesin were analyzed using PCR and Western blot. Further 21 patients on NSBB were evaluated on their follow up for events of variceal bleeding defined as non-response. RESULTS: Ten patients showed HVPG <10mmHg, further seven patients showed significant hemodynamic response to NSBB, whereas eight patients were non-responders. The mucosal transcription of vasoactive proteins was higher in antrum mucosa compared to corpus and duodenum. The transcriptional levels of vasoactive proteins were higher in patients with HVPG >10mmHg and HVPG >16mmHg. Interestingly, mRNA levels of RhoA and ROCK2 were lower in patients with large varices at endoscopy. Moreover, RhoA and ROCK2 transcription correlated with the decrease of HVPG after acute NSBB challenge. Finally, acute and long-term non-responders showed lower expression of ßArr2 in antrum mucosa. CONCLUSION: This study shows for the first time that the expression of ßArr2 in antrum mucosa biopsies might reflect the hemodynamic response to NSBB and their long-term protective effect. This finding might offer an easy approach at upper endoscopy to facilitate the decision to treat with NSBB if varices are present.