Physician Antipsychotic Overprescribing Letters and Cognitive, Behavioral, and Physical Health Outcomes Among People With Dementia: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Antipsychotics, such as quetiapine, are frequently prescribed to people with dementia to address behavioral symptoms but can also cause harm in this population. Objective: To determine whether warning letters to high prescribers of quetiapine can successfully reduce its use among patients with dementia and to investigate the impacts on patients' health outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial of overprescribing letters that began in April 2015 and included the highest-volume primary care physician (PCP) prescribers of quetiapine in original Medicare. Outcomes of patients with dementia were analyzed in repeated 90-day cross-sections through December 2018. Analyses were conducted from September 2021 to February 2024. Interventions: PCPs were randomized to a placebo letter or 3 overprescribing warning letters stating that their prescribing of quetiapine was high and under review by Medicare. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome of this analysis was patients' total quetiapine use in days per 90-day period (the original trial primary outcome was total quetiapine prescribing by study PCPs). Prespecified secondary outcomes included measures of cognitive function and behavioral symptoms from nursing home assessments, indicators of depression from screening questionnaires in assessments and diagnoses in claims, metabolic diagnoses derived from assessments and claims, indicators of use of the hospital and other health care services, and death. Outcomes were analyzed separately for patients living in nursing homes and in the community. Results: Of the 5055 study PCPs, 2528 were randomized to the placebo letter, and 2527 were randomized to the 3 warning letters. A total of 84 881 patients with dementia living in nursing homes and 261 288 community-dwelling patients with dementia were attributed to these PCPs. There were 92 874 baseline patients (mean [SD] age, 81.5 [10.5] years; 64 242 female [69.2%]). The intervention reduced quetiapine use among both nursing home patients (adjusted difference, -0.7 days; 95% CI, -1.3 to -0.1 days; P = .02) and community-dwelling patients (adjusted difference, -1.5 days; 95% CI, -1.8 to -1.1 days; P < .001). There were no detected adverse effects on cognitive function (cognitive function scale adjusted difference, 0.01; 95% CI, -0.01 to 0.03; P = .19), behavioral symptoms (agitated or reactive behavior adjusted difference, -0.2%; 95% CI -1.2% to 0.8% percentage points; P = .72), depression, metabolic diagnoses, or more severe outcomes, including hospitalization and death. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that overprescribing warning letters to PCPs safely reduced quetiapine prescribing to their patients with dementia. This intervention and others like it may be useful for future efforts to promote guideline-concordant care. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05172687.

Climate Change and Human Health in Africa in Relation to Opportunities to Strengthen Mitigating Potential and Adaptive Capacity: Strategies to Inform an African "Brains Trust".

Background: Africa faces diverse and complex population/human health challenges due to climate change. Understanding the health impacts of climate change in Africa in all its complexity is essential for implementing effective strategies and policies to mitigate risks and protect vulnerable populations. This study aimed to outline the major climate change-related health impacts in Africa in the context of economic resilience and to seek solutions and provide strategies to prevent or reduce adverse effects of climate change on human health and well-being in Africa. Methods: For this narrative review, a literature search was conducted in the Web of Science, Scopus, CAB Abstracts, MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases. We also searched the reference lists of retrieved articles for additional records as well as reports. We followed a conceptual framework to ensure all aspects of climate change and health impacts in Africa were identified. Results: The average temperatures in all six eco-regions of Africa have risen since the early twentieth century, and heat exposure, extreme events, and sea level rise are projected to disproportionately affect Africa, resulting in a larger burden of health impacts than other continents. Given that climate change already poses substantial challenges to African health and well-being, this will necessitate significant effort, financial investment, and dedication to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This review offers African leaders and decision-makers data-driven and action-oriented strategies that will ensure a more resilient healthcare system and safe, healthy populations-in ways that contribute to economic resiliency. Conclusions: The urgency of climate-health action integrated with sustainable development in Africa cannot be overstated, given the multiple economic gains from reducing current impacts and projected risks of climate change on the continent's population health and well-being. Climate action must be integrated into Africa's development plan to meet the Sustainable Development Goals, protect vulnerable populations from the detrimental effects of climate change, and promote economic development.

The impact of war on the health system of the Tigray region in Ethiopia: an assessment.

The war in Tigray region of Ethiopia that started in November 2020 and is still ongoing has brought enormous damage to the health system. This analysis provides an assessment of the health system before and during the war. Evidence of damage was compiled from November 2020 to June 2021 from various reports by the interim government of Tigray, and also by international non-governmental organisations. Comparison was made with data from the prewar calendar year. Six months into the war, only 30% of hospitals, 17% of health centres, 11.5% of ambulances and none of the 712 health posts were functional. As of June 2021, the population in need of emergency food assistance in Tigray increased from less than one million to over 5.2 million. While the prewar performance of antenatal care, supervised delivery, postnatal care and children vaccination was 64%, 73%, 63% and 73%, respectively, but none of the services were likely to be delivered in the first 90 days of the war. A conservative estimate places the number of girls and women raped in the first 5 months of the war to be 10 000. These data indicate a widespread destruction of livelihoods and a collapse of the healthcare system. The use of hunger and rape as a weapon of war and the targeting of healthcare facilities are key components of the war. To avert worsening conditions, an immediate intervention is needed to deliver food and supplies and rehabilitate the healthcare delivery system and infrastructure.

Fine particulate pollution concentration in Addis Ababa exceeds the WHO guideline value: Results of 3 years of continuous monitoring and health impact assessment.

Real-time monitoring of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and assessing the health impact are limited in Ethiopia. The objective of this study is to describe current levels of PM2.5 air pollution in Addis Ababa and examine temporal patterns and to consider the health impact of current PM2.5 exposure levels. METHODS: PM2.5 concentrations were measured using a centrally-located Beta Attenuator Monitor (BAM-1022) for 3 years (1 April 2017 to 31 March 2020), with data downloaded biweekly. Deaths attributable to current PM2.5 concentration levels were estimated using the AirQ+ tool. The daily average was estimated using hourly data. RESULTS: The daily mean (SD) PM2.5 concentration was 42.4 µg/m3 (15.98). Two daily extremes were observed: morning (high) and afternoon (low). Sundays had the lowest PM2.5 concentration, while Mondays to Thursdays saw a continuous increase; Fridays showed the highest concentration. Seasons showed marked variation, with the highest values during the wet season. Concentration spikes reflected periods of intensive fuel combustion. A total of 502 deaths (4.44%) were attributable to current air pollution levels referenced to the 35 µg/m3 WHO interim target annual level and 2,043 (17.7%) at the WHO 10 µg/m3 annual guideline. CONCLUSION: PM2.5 daily levels were 1.7 times higher than the WHO-recommended 24-hour guideline. The current annual mean PM2.5 concentration results in a substantial burden of attributable deaths compared to an annual mean of 10 µg/m3. The high PM2.5 level and its variability across days and seasons calls for citywide interventions to promote clean air.

Tobacco Retail Licensing and Youth Product Use.

BACKGROUND: Restricting youth access to tobacco is a central feature of US tobacco regulatory policy, but impact of local tobacco retail licensing (TRL) regulation on cigarette smoking rates remains uncertain. Effects of TRL on other tobacco product use and use as adolescents reach the age to legally purchase tobacco products has not been investigated. METHODS: Prevalences of ever and past 30-day cigarette, electronic cigarette (e-cigarette), cigar, and hookah use were assessed in a survey of a cohort of 1553 11th- and 12th-grade adolescents (mean age: 17.3 years); rates of initiation were evaluated 1.5 years later. An American Lung Association (2014) youth access grade was assigned to each of 14 political jurisdictions in which participants lived on the basis of the strength of the local TRL ordinance. RESULTS: At baseline, participants living in 4 jurisdictions with "A" grades (ie, with most restrictive ordinances) had lower odds of ever cigarette use (odds ratio [OR] 0.61; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.41-0.90) and of past 30-day use (OR 0.51; 95% CI 0.29-0.89) than participants in 10 D- to F-grade jurisdictions. At follow-up at legal age of purchase, lower odds of cigarette use initiation (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.45-0.99) occurred in jurisdictions with stronger TRL policy. Lower odds of e-cigarette initiation at follow-up (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.55-0.99) and of initiation with past 30-day use (OR 0.45; 95% CI 0.23-0.90) were also associated with better regulation. CONCLUSIONS: Strong local TRL ordinance may lower rates of cigarette and e-cigarette use among youth and young adults.

Dynamic Latent Trait Models with Mixed Hidden Markov Structure for Mixed Longitudinal Outcomes.

We propose a general Bayesian joint modeling approach to model mixed longitudinal outcomes from the exponential family for taking into account any differential misclassification that may exist among categorical outcomes. Under this framework, outcomes observed without measurement error are related to latent trait variables through generalized linear mixed effect models. The misclassified outcomes are related to the latent class variables, which represent unobserved real states, using mixed hidden Markov models (MHMM). In addition to enabling the estimation of parameters in prevalence, transition and misclassification probabilities, MHMMs capture cluster level heterogeneity. A transition modeling structure allows the latent trait and latent class variables to depend on observed predictors at the same time period and also on latent trait and latent class variables at previous time periods for each individual. Simulation studies are conducted to make comparisons with traditional models in order to illustrate the gains from the proposed approach. The new approach is applied to data from the Southern California Children Health Study (CHS) to jointly model questionnaire based asthma state and multiple lung function measurements in order to gain better insight about the underlying biological mechanism that governs the inter-relationship between asthma state and lung function development.

Occupational Health and Safety in Ethiopia: A review of Situational Analysis and Needs Assessment.

BACKGROUND: The current rapid economic development has brought changes in workplaces in developing countries, including Ethiopia. The organization of occupational health and safety services is not yet resilient enough to handle the growing demands for workers' health in the context of industrialization. There is limited information on the gaps and needs of occupational health services in workplaces in Ethiopia. OBJECTIVES: The present review article describes the existing profile of occupational safety and health services in Ethiopia and identifies the current gaps and needs in the services. METHODS: Secondary data sources were reviewed using a structured checklist to explore the status of occupational safety, health services and related morbidity. Local literature was consulted in order to describe the type and prevalence of work related hazards, patterns of industries and of workforce. Published articles were searched in Google, Google scholar, PUBMED, and HINARI databases. Relevant heads of stakeholder organizations and experts were interviewed to verify the gaps that were synthesized using desk review. RESULTS: Ethiopia is an agrarian country that is industrializing rapidly with a focus on construction, manufacturing, mining, and road infrastructure. An estimated work force of about two million is currently engaged in the public and private sectors. Males constitute the majority of this workforce. Most of the workforce has basic primary education. Commonly observed hazards in the workplace include occupational noise and dust of various types in manufacturing sectors and chemical exposures in the flower industry. Injury in both the agriculture and the manufacturing sectors is another workplace hazard commonly observed in the country. A lack of information made assessing workplace exposures in detail difficult. The prevalence of noise exposure was found to be high with the potential to seriously impact hearing capacity. Exposure to dust in textile and cement factories greatly exceeded international permissible limits. There is a high level of workplace injuries that often leads to an extended loss of productive working days. Occupational safety and health services were found to be inadequately organized. There is limited practice in exposure assessment and monitoring. This happens to be true despite the existing favorable environment in areas of policies and regulations. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: There is a severe scarcity of peer-reviewed literature related to workplace exposures and their impact on workplace health and safety. Limited adequately skilled manpower is available. The internal infrastructural capacity is weak and cannot help to identify and assess hazards in the workplace. Monitoring system and laboratory investigation is limited despite the presence of favorable policy and regulatory frameworks. Addressing these gaps is of immediate concern.

Health Effects of Environmental Exposures, Occupational Hazards and Climate Change in Ethiopia: Synthesis of Situational Analysis, Needs Assessment and the Way Forward.

BACKGROUND: The burden of diseases caused by environmental and occupational health hazards and the effects of global climate change are of growing concerns in Ethiopia. However, no adequate information seems to be available on the current situation. This means there is a critical gap in research, policy framework and implementation in the country. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this paper was to synthesize evidence from a systematic situational analysis and needs assessment to help establish a hub for research and training on three major themes and their related policy frameworks: air pollution and health, occupational health and safety and climate change and health. METHODS: The methods used in this work include a systematic review of secondary data from peer-reviewed literature, thesis reports from academia, government and national statistical reports. Limited primary data based on key informant interviews held with major stakeholders were also used as sources of data. FINDINGS: Exposures to high levels of indoor and outdoor air pollutants were found to be major sources of public health challenges. Lack of occupational safety and health due to agricultural activities and exposure to industries was found to be substantial. Worse is the growing fear that climate change will pose increasingly significant multidimensional challenges to the environment and public health. Across all three areas of focus, there was a paucity of information on local scientific evidence. There is also very limited trained skilled manpower and physical infrastructure to monitor the environment and enforce regulatory guidelines. Research, policy frameworks and regulatory mechanisms were among the cross-cutting issues that needed urgent attention. CONCLUSIONS: Critical gaps were observed in research and training across the three themes. Also, there is a limitation in implementing the link between policy and related regulations in the environment and health.

Bayesian mixed hidden Markov models: a multi-level approach to modeling categorical outcomes with differential misclassification.

Questionnaire-based health status outcomes are often prone to misclassification. When studying the effect of risk factors on such outcomes, ignoring any potential misclassification may lead to biased effect estimates. Analytical challenges posed by these misclassified outcomes are further complicated when simultaneously exploring factors for both the misclassification and health processes in a multi-level setting. To address these challenges, we propose a fully Bayesian mixed hidden Markov model (BMHMM) for handling differential misclassification in categorical outcomes in a multi-level setting. The BMHMM generalizes the traditional hidden Markov model (HMM) by introducing random effects into three sets of HMM parameters for joint estimation of the prevalence, transition, and misclassification probabilities. This formulation not only allows joint estimation of all three sets of parameters but also accounts for cluster-level heterogeneity based on a multi-level model structure. Using this novel approach, both the true health status prevalence and the transition probabilities between the health states during follow-up are modeled as functions of covariates. The observed, possibly misclassified, health states are related to the true, but unobserved, health states and covariates. Results from simulation studies are presented to validate the estimation procedure, to show the computational efficiency due to the Bayesian approach and also to illustrate the gains from the proposed method compared to existing methods that ignore outcome misclassification and cluster-level heterogeneity. We apply the proposed method to examine the risk factors for both asthma transition and misclassification in the Southern California Children's Health Study.

Social environment and asthma: associations with crime and No Child Left Behind programmes.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between asthma and socio-economic status remains unclear. The authors investigated how neighbourhood, school and community social environments were associated with incident asthma in Southern California schoolchildren. METHODS: New-onset asthma was measured over 3 years of follow-up in the Children's Health Study cohort. Multilevel random-effects models assessed associations between social environments and asthma, adjusted for individual risk factors. At baseline, subjects resided in 274 census tracts (ie, neighbourhoods) and attended kindergarten or first grade in one of 45 schools distributed in 13 communities throughout Southern California. Neighbourhoods and communities were characterised by measures of deprivation, income inequality and racial segregation. Communities were further described by crime rates. Information on schools included whether a school received funding related to the Title 1 No Child Left Behind programme, which aims to reduce academic underachievement in disadvantaged populations. RESULTS: Increased risk for asthma was observed in subjects attending schools receiving Title I funds compared with those from schools without funding (adjusted HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.58), and residing in communities with higher rates of larceny crime (adjusted HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.08 to 3.02 across the range of 1827 incidents per 100,000 population). CONCLUSIONS: Risk for asthma was higher in areas of low socio-economic status, possibly due to unmeasured risk factors or chronic stress.

Automobile traffic around the home and attained body mass index: a longitudinal cohort study of children aged 10-18 years.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between measured traffic density near the homes of children and attained body mass index (BMI) over an eight-year follow up. METHODS: Children aged 9-10 years were enrolled across multiple communities in Southern California in 1993 and 1996 (n=3318). Children were followed until age 18 or high school graduation to collect longitudinal information, including annual height and weight measurements. Multilevel growth curve models were used to assess the association between BMI levels at age 18 and traffic around the home. RESULTS: For traffic within 150 m around the child's home, there were significant positive associations with attained BMI for both sexes at age 18. With the 300 m traffic buffer, associations for both male and female growth in BMI were positive, but significantly elevated only in females. These associations persisted even after controlling for numerous potential confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis yields the first evidence of significant effects from traffic density on BMI levels at age 18 in a large cohort of children. Traffic is a pervasive exposure in most cities, and our results identify traffic as a major risk factor for the development of obesity in children.

Assessing uncertainty in spatial exposure models for air pollution health effects assessment.

BACKGROUND: Although numerous epidemiologic studies now use models of intraurban exposure, there has been little systematic evaluation of the performance of different models. OBJECTIVES: In this present article we proposed a modeling framework for assessing exposure model performance and the role of spatial autocorrelation in the estimation of health effects. METHODS: We obtained data from an exposure measurement substudy of subjects from the Southern California Children's Health Study. We examined how the addition of spatial correlations to a previously described unified exposure and health outcome modeling framework affects estimates of exposure-response relationships using the substudy data. The methods proposed build upon the previous work, which developed measurement-error techniques to estimate long-term nitrogen dioxide exposure and its effect on lung function in children. In this present article, we further develop these methods by introducing between- and within-community spatial autocorrelation error terms to evaluate effects of air pollution on forced vital capacity. The analytical methods developed are set in a Bayesian framework where multistage models are fitted jointly, properly incorporating parameter estimation uncertainty at all levels of the modeling process. RESULTS: Results suggest that the inclusion of residual spatial error terms improves the prediction of adverse health effects. These findings also demonstrate how residual spatial error may be used as a diagnostic for comparing exposure model performance.

The association between contextual socioeconomic factors and prevalent asthma in a cohort of Southern California school children.

Spatial variation in childhood asthma and a recent increase in prevalence indicate that environmental factors play a significant role in the etiology of this important disease. Socioeconomic position (SEP) has been associated inversely and positively with childhood asthma. These contradictory results indicate a need for systematic research about SEP and asthma. Pathways have been suggested for effects of SEP on asthma at both the individual and community level. We examined the relationship of prevalent asthma to community-level indicators of SEP among 5762 children in 12 Southern California communities, using a multilevel random effects model. Estimates of community-level SEP were derived by summarizing census block group-level data using a novel method of weighting by the proportion of the block groups included in a community-specific bounding rectangle that contained 95% of local study subjects. Community characteristics included measures of male unemployment, household income, low education (i.e., no high school diploma) and poverty. There was a consistent inverse association between male unemployment and asthma across the inter-quartile range of community unemployment rates, indicating that asthma rates increase as community SEP increases. The results were robust to individual-level confounding, methods for summarizing census block group data to the community level, scale of analysis (i.e., community-level vs. neighborhood-level) and the modeling algorithm. The positive association between SEP and prevalent childhood asthma might be explained by differential access to medical care that remains unmeasured, by the hygiene hypothesis (e.g., lower SES may associate with higher protective exposures to endotoxin in early life), or by SEP acting as a proxy for unmeasured neighborhood characteristics.

Effect of exposure to traffic on lung development from 10 to 18 years of age: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Whether local exposure to major roadways adversely affects lung-function growth during the period of rapid lung development that takes place between 10 and 18 years of age is unknown. This study investigated the association between residential exposure to traffic and 8-year lung-function growth. METHODS: In this prospective study, 3677 children (mean age 10 years [SD 0.44]) participated from 12 southern California communities that represent a wide range in regional air quality. Children were followed up for 8 years, with yearly lung-function measurements recorded. For each child, we identified several indicators of residential exposure to traffic from large roads. Regression analysis was used to establish whether 8-year growth in lung function was associated with local traffic exposure, and whether local traffic effects were independent of regional air quality. FINDINGS: Children who lived within 500 m of a freeway (motorway) had substantial deficits in 8-year growth of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1), -81 mL, p=0.01 [95% CI -143 to -18]) and maximum midexpiratory flow rate (MMEF, -127 mL/s, p=0.03 [-243 to -11), compared with children who lived at least 1500 m from a freeway. Joint models showed that both local exposure to freeways and regional air pollution had detrimental, and independent, effects on lung-function growth. Pronounced deficits in attained lung function at age 18 years were recorded for those living within 500 m of a freeway, with mean percent-predicted 97.0% for FEV1 (p=0.013, relative to >1500 m [95% CI 94.6-99.4]) and 93.4% for MMEF (p=0.006 [95% CI 89.1-97.7]). INTERPRETATION: Local exposure to traffic on a freeway has adverse effects on children's lung development, which are independent of regional air quality, and which could result in important deficits in attained lung function in later life.