Need assessment for HIV drug resistance testing and landscape of current and future technologies in low- and middle-income countries.

Resistance to antiretroviral drugs used to treat HIV is an important and evolving concern, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) which have been impacted to the greatest extent by the HIV pandemic. Efforts to monitor the emergence and transmission of resistance over the past decade have shown that drug resistance-especially to the nucleoside analogue and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors-can (and have) increased to levels that can jeopardize the efficacy of available treatment options at the population level. The global shift to integrase-based regimens as the preferred first-line therapy as well as technological advancements in the methods for detecting resistance have had an impact in broadening and diversifying the landscape of and use case for HIV drug resistance testing. This review estimates the potential demand for HIV drug resistance tests, and surveys current testing methodologies, with a focus on their application in LMICs.

Epidemiology of HIV drug resistance in low- and middle-income countries and WHO global strategy to monitor its emergence.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review summarises the latest information of the epidemiology of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) in low- and middle-income countries and the updated WHO global strategy for HIVDR surveillance and monitoring. RECENT FINDINGS: Finding from recent national-representative surveys show a rise in pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) to reverse transcriptase inhibitors and especially to the class of nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Levels of PDR are especially high in infants <18 months and adults reporting prior exposure to antiretrovirals. Although viral suppression rates are generally high and increasing among adults on antiretroviral therapy, those with unsuppressed viremia have high levels of acquired drug resistance (ADR). Programmatic data on HIVDR to integrase-transfer-inhibitor resistance is scarce, highlighting the need to increase integrase-inhibitors resistance surveillance. As the landscape of HIV prevention, treatment and monitoring evolves, WHO has also adapted its strategy to effectively support countries in preventing and monitoring the emergence of HIVDR. This includes new survey methods for monitoring resistance emerging from patients diagnosed with HIV while on preexposure prophylaxis, and a laboratory-based ADR survey leveraging on remnant viral load specimens which are expected to strengthen dolutegravir-resistance surveillance. SUMMARY: Monitoring HIVDR remains pivotal to ensure countries attain and sustain the global goals for ending HIV as a public health threat by 2030.

Updated assessment of risks and benefits of dolutegravir versus efavirenz in new antiretroviral treatment initiators in sub-Saharan Africa: modelling to inform treatment guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The integrase inhibitor dolutegravir is being considered in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa instead of efavirenz for people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) because of superior tolerability and a lower risk of resistance emergence. WHO requested updated modelling results for its 2019 Antiretroviral Guidelines update, which was restricted to the choice of dolutegravir or efavirenz in new ART initiators. In response to this request, we modelled the risks and benefits of alternative policies for initial first-line ART regimens. METHODS: We updated an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission and progression in adults to consider information on the risk of neural tube defects in women taking dolutegravir at time of conception, as well as the effects of dolutegravir on weight gain. The model accounted for drug resistance in determining viral suppression, with consequences for clinical outcomes and mother-to-child transmission. We sampled distributions of parameters to create various epidemic setting scenarios, which reflected the diversity of epidemic and programmatic situations in sub-Saharan Africa. For each setting scenario, we considered the situation in 2018 and compared ART initiation policies of an efavirenz-based regimen in women intending pregnancy, and a dolutegravir-based regimen in others, and a dolutegravir-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy. We considered predicted outcomes over a 20-year period from 2019 to 2039, used a 3% discount rate, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. FINDINGS: Considering updated information on risks and benefits, a policy of ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen rather than an efavirenz-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy, is predicted to bring population health benefits (10 990 DALYs averted per year) and to be cost-saving (by $2·9 million per year), leading to a reduction in the overall population burden of disease of 16 735 net DALYs per year for a country with an adult population size of 10 million. The policy involving ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen in women intending pregnancy was cost-effective in 87% of our setting scenarios and this finding was robust in various sensitivity analyses, including around the potential negative effects of weight gain. INTERPRETATION: In the context of a range of modelled setting scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa, we found that a policy of ART initiation with a dolutegravir-based regimen, including in women intending pregnancy, was predicted to bring population health benefits and be cost-effective, supporting WHO's strong recommendation for dolutegravir as a preferred drug for ART initiators. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cost-effectiveness of public-health policy options in the presence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There is concern over increasing prevalence of non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance in people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative public health responses in countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance to NNRTIs is high. METHODS: The HIV Synthesis Model is an individual-based simulation model of sexual HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART in adults, which is based on extensive published data sources and considers specific drugs and resistance mutations. We used this model to generate multiple setting scenarios mimicking those in sub-Saharan Africa and considered the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in 2017. We then compared effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative policy options. We took a 20 year time horizon, used a cost effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted, and discounted DALYs and costs at 3% per year. FINDINGS: A transition to use of a dolutegravir as a first-line regimen in all new ART initiators is the option predicted to produce the most health benefits, resulting in a reduction of about 1 death per year per 100 people on ART over the next 20 years in a situation in which more than 10% of ART initiators have NNRTI resistance. The negative effect on population health of postponing the transition to dolutegravir increases substantially with higher prevalence of HIV drug resistance to NNRTI in ART initiators. Because of the reduced risk of resistance acquisition with dolutegravir-based regimens and reduced use of expensive second-line boosted protease inhibitor regimens, this policy option is also predicted to lead to a reduction of overall programme cost. INTERPRETATION: A future transition from first-line regimens containing efavirenz to regimens containing dolutegravir formulations in adult ART initiators is predicted to be effective and cost-effective in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa at any prevalence of pre-ART NNRTI resistance. The urgency of the transition will depend largely on the country-specific prevalence of NNRTI resistance. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, World Health Organization.

Impact of HIV Drug Resistance on HIV/AIDS-Associated Mortality, New Infections, and Antiretroviral Therapy Program Costs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

To inform the level of attention to be given by antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs to HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), we used an individual-level model to estimate its impact on future AIDS deaths, HIV incidence, and ART program costs in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for a range of program situations. We applied this to SSA through the Spectrum-Goals model. In a situation in which current levels of pretreatment HIVDR are over 10% (mean, 15%), 16% of AIDS deaths (890 000 deaths), 9% of new infections (450 000), and 8% ($6.5 billion) of ART program costs in SSA in 2016-2030 will be attributable to HIVDR.

Suboptimal Viral Suppression Rates Among HIV-Infected Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The 90-90-90 goal to achieve viral suppression in 90% of all human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected people on antiretroviral treatment (ART) is especially challenging in children. Global estimates of viral suppression among children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are lacking. METHODS: We searched for randomized controlled trials and observational studies and analyzed viral suppression rates among children started on ART during 3 time periods: early (2000-2005), intermediate (2006-2009), and current (2010 and later), using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Seventy-two studies, reporting on 51 347 children (aged <18 years), were included. After 12 months on first-line ART, viral suppression was achieved by 64.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 57.5-71.8) in the early, 74.2% (95% CI, 70.2-78.2) in the intermediate, and 72.7% (95% 62.6-82.8) in the current time period. Rates were similar after 6 and 24 months of ART. Using an intention-to-treat analysis, 42.7% (95% CI, 33.7-51.7) in the early, 45.7% (95% CI, 33.2-58.3) in the intermediate, and 62.5% (95% CI, 53.3-72.6) in the current period were suppressed. Long-term follow-up data were scarce. CONCLUSIONS: Viral suppression rates among children on ART in LMICs were low and considerably poorer than those previously found in adults in LMICs and children in high-income countries. Little progress has been made in improving viral suppression rates over the past years. Without increased efforts to improve pediatric HIV treatment, the 90-90-90 goal for children in LMIC will not be reached.

Increasing the use of second-line therapy is a cost-effective approach to prevent the spread of drug-resistant HIV: a mathematical modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Earlier antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation reduces HIV-1 incidence. This benefit may be offset by increased transmitted drug resistance (TDR), which could limit future HIV treatment options. We analyze the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of strategies to reduce TDR. METHODS: We develop a deterministic mathematical model representing Kampala, Uganda, to predict the prevalence of TDR over a 10-year period. We then compare the impact on TDR and cost-effectiveness of: (1) introduction of pre-therapy genotyping; (2) doubling use of second-line treatment to 80% (50-90%) of patients with confirmed virological failure on first-line ART; and (3) increasing viral load monitoring from yearly to twice yearly. An intervention can be considered cost-effective if it costs less than three times the gross domestic product per capita per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained, or less than $3420 in Uganda. RESULTS: The prevalence of TDR is predicted to rise from 6.7% (interquartile range [IQR] 6.2-7.2%) in 2014, to 6.8% (IQR 6.1-7.6%), 10.0% (IQR 8.9-11.5%) and 11.1% (IQR 9.7-13.0%) in 2024 if treatment is initiated at a CD4 <350, <500, or immediately, respectively. The absolute number of TDR cases is predicted to decrease 4.4-8.1% when treating earlier compared to treating at CD4 <350 due to the preventative effects of earlier treatment. Most cases of TDR can be averted by increasing second-line treatment (additional 7.1-10.2% reduction), followed by increased viral load monitoring (<2.7%) and pre-therapy genotyping (<1.0%). Only increasing second-line treatment is cost-effective, ranging from $1612 to $2234 (IQR $450-dominated) per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: While earlier treatment initiation will result in a predicted increase in the proportion of patients infected with drug-resistant HIV, the absolute numbers of patients infected with drug-resistant HIV is predicted to decrease. Increasing use of second-line treatment to all patients with confirmed failure on first-line therapy is a cost-effective approach to reduce TDR. Improving access to second-line ART is therefore a major priority.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of potential responses to future high levels of transmitted HIV drug resistance in antiretroviral drug-naive populations beginning treatment: modelling study and economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: With continued roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, evidence is emerging of increasing levels of transmitted drug-resistant HIV. We aimed to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different potential public health responses to substantial levels of transmitted drug resistance. METHODS: We created a model of HIV transmission, progression, and the effects of ART, which accounted for resistance generation, transmission, and disappearance of resistance from majority virus in the absence of drug pressure. We simulated 5000 ART programmatic scenarios with different prevalence levels of detectable resistance in people starting ART in 2017 (t0) who had not previously been exposed to antiretroviral drugs. We used the model to predict cost-effectiveness of various potential changes in policy triggered by different prevalence levels of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) measured in the population starting ART. FINDINGS: Individual-level resistance testing before ART initiation was not generally a cost-effective option, irrespective of the cost-effectiveness threshold. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), no change in policy was cost effective (ie, no change in policy would involve paying less than $500 per QALY gained), irrespective of the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI resistance, because of the increased cost of the policy alternatives. At thresholds of $1000 or higher, and with the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI resistance greater than 10%, a policy to measure viral load 6 months after ART initiation became cost effective. The policy option to change the standard first-line treatment to a boosted protease inhibitor regimen became cost effective at a prevalence of NNRTI resistance higher than 15%, for cost-effectiveness thresholds greater than $2000. INTERPRETATION: Cost-effectiveness of potential policies to adopt in response to different levels of pretreatment HIV drug resistance depends on competing budgetary claims, reflected in the cost-effectiveness threshold. Results from our model will help inform WHO recommendations on monitoring of HIV drug resistance in people starting ART. FUNDING: WHO (with funds provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation), CHAIN (European Commission).

Transmission of drug resistant HIV and its potential impact on mortality and treatment outcomes in resource-limited settings.

Scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in low- and middle-income countries has been achieved by using a public health approach that involved national standard regimens and clinical monitoring in settings where laboratory infrastructure was not available. This strategy potentially allows for long periods of unrecognized viral failure, during which drug-resistant virus can be transmitted and this could compromise the long-term effectiveness of currently available first-line regimens. In response to this concern, the World Health Organization recommends population-based surveys to detect whether the prevalence of resistance in ART-naive people is reaching alerting levels. Whereas adherence counseling has to be an integral component of any treatment program, it is still unclear which threshold of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) should trigger additional targeted public health actions and which action is the most cost-effective. Mathematical models can contribute to answer these questions. In order to estimate the potential long-term impact of TDR on mortality in people on ART we used the Synthesis transmission model. TDR is predicted to have potentially significant impact on future HIV mortality. It is critical to remain vigilant over transmission of drug-resistant HIV.

Cost-effectiveness of tenofovir instead of zidovudine for use in first-line antiretroviral therapy in settings without virological monitoring.

BACKGROUND: The most recent World Health Organization (WHO) antiretroviral treatment guidelines recommend the inclusion of zidovudine (ZDV) or tenofovir (TDF) in first-line therapy. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with emphasis on emerging patterns of drug resistance upon treatment failure and their impact on second-line therapy. METHODS: We used a stochastic simulation of a generalized HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa to compare two strategies for first-line combination antiretroviral treatment including lamivudine, nevirapine and either ZDV or TDF. Model input parameters were derived from literature and, for the simulation of resistance pathways, estimated from drug resistance data obtained after first-line treatment failure in settings without virological monitoring. Treatment failure and cost effectiveness were determined based on WHO definitions. Two scenarios with optimistic (no emergence; base) and pessimistic (extensive emergence) assumptions regarding occurrence of multidrug resistance patterns were tested. RESULTS: In the base scenario, cumulative proportions of treatment failure according to WHO criteria were higher among first-line ZDV users (median after six years 36% [95% simulation interval 32%; 39%]) compared with first-line TDF users (31% [29%; 33%]). Consequently, a higher proportion initiated second-line therapy (including lamivudine, boosted protease inhibitors and either ZDV or TDF) in the first-line ZDV user group 34% [31%; 37%] relative to first-line TDF users (30% [27%; 32%]). At the time of second-line initiation, a higher proportion (16%) of first-line ZDV users harboured TDF-resistant HIV compared with ZDV-resistant viruses among first-line TDF users (0% and 6% in base and pessimistic scenarios, respectively). In the base scenario, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio with respect to quality adjusted life years (QALY) was US$83 when TDF instead of ZDV was used in first-line therapy (pessimistic scenario: US$ 315), which was below the WHO threshold for high cost effectiveness (US$ 2154). CONCLUSIONS: Using TDF instead of ZDV in first-line treatment in resource-limited settings is very cost-effective and likely to better preserve future treatment options in absence of virological monitoring.

Determinants of HIV drug resistance and public health implications in low- and middle-income countries.

Global scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is an unprecedented public health achievement. With planned efforts of expanded ART access including earlier treatment initiation and the use of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs for prophylaxis, increasing levels of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) are expected.Several factors may lead to selection and transmission of significant HIVDR in LMICs, which will lead to decreased population-level efficacy of standard first- and second-line ART regimens. These factors include low genetic barrier of some ARVs to resistance development, drug-drug interactions, inappropriate prescribing practices, interruption of drug supply, poor retention in care and lack of routine viral load monitoring.To maximize long-term effectiveness of available ARVs, policy makers and programme managers in LMICs should routinely monitor programme factors associated with emergence and transmission of HIVDR and implement routine HIVDR surveillance following standardized methods. When surveillance results suggest the need for action, specific public health interventions must be taken to adjust ART programme functioning to minimize further emergence and transmission of HIVDR.In this paper, we review ARV drug, HIV, patient and programme-related determinants of HIVDR. Additionally, we summarize the World Health Orgnization's global HIVDR surveillance and prevention strategy and describe resulting public health and policy implications.

Are countries using global fund support to implement HIV drug resistance surveillance? A review of funded HIV grants.

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) is the largest funder of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention and treatment programs worldwide. Since 2002, the Global Fund has encouraged grant recipients to implement drug resistance surveillance (DRS) as part of treatment programs. We reviewed documentation of 147 grants funded in 2004-2008 (funding rounds 4-8) to assess grantees' use of funds to support HIV DRS. Overall, 94 grants (64%) described HIV DRS as part of the national treatment program. However, only 32 grants (22%) specifically documented DRS as a grant-funded activity. This review provides baseline information suggesting limited use by countries of Global Fund financing to support HIV DRS. Additional assessment is required to evaluate barriers to using Global Fund grants to support DRS.

Transmitted HIV drug resistance among drug-naive subjects recently infected with HIV in Mexico City: a World Health Organization survey to classify resistance and to field test two alternative patient enrollment methods.

In 2004, the World Health Organization performed a survey to assess transmitted drug resistance in Mexico City among drug-naive persons with newly diagnosed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and likely to be recently infected who were attending 3 voluntary counseling and testing sites. A parallel study comparing 2 alternative methods of enrolling survey participant was conducted in 9 voluntary counseling and testing sites in central Mexico. In study arm 1, subject information, consent and blood specimens were obtained during the HIV diagnostic testing visit. In study arm 2, consent and blood specimens were obtained at the return visit, only from those who were HIV infected. This survey classified nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor and nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor transmitted drug resistance as <5% and 5%-15%, respectively. Arm 2 yielded major advantages in cost and workload, with no evidence of increased sampling bias.

Integrated surveillance of HIV care in low-income and middle-income countries.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: HIV care should be seen as a continuum of health interventions that starts from HIV testing and counselling and ends with life-long provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART). All the interventions should be monitored with appropriate methods and indicators to constitute an integrated surveillance system of HIV care. This review outlines the different elements of this comprehensive surveillance, highlighting their public health importance. RECENT FINDINGS: Data on HIV care programmes in developing countries are generally fragmented and weak, focusing primarily on outcomes of patients on ART. A global scale-up of ART should be accompanied by robust programmatic assessment of the whole spectrum of HIV care components, which include monitoring pre-ART and ART programmatic elements, routine surveillance of HIV drug resistance, pharmacovigilance and appropriate surveillance of HIV-related mortality. SUMMARY: Comprehensive surveillance of HIV care that integrates multiple elements is needed in order to provide evidence-based data to optimize quality of care and improve survival. However, due to the increasing number of patients, the need for life-long interventions and the weakness of the health system, the implementation and sustainability of an integrated surveillance programme is challenging.

World Health Organization surveys to monitor HIV drug resistance prevention and associated factors in sentinel antiretroviral treatment sites.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that >2 million people will have started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2006. As the development of some HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) is inevitable in populations taking ART, the emergence of HIVDR must be balanced against the benefits of providing ART, including improved health outcomes and decreased HIV/AIDS-associated morbidity and mortality. ART programmes should operate to minimize the emergence of HIVDR in populations receiving therapy and HIVDR itself must be monitored to ensure ongoing regimen efficacy. ART regimens in resource-limited settings are usually selected at the national level following a public health approach: generally only one first-line regimen with alternate regimen(s) incorporating within-class drug substitutions are available in the public sector. The WHO has developed a population-based HIVDR assessment and prevention strategy, which includes standardized HIVDR monitoring surveys in populations receiving first-line ART at sentinel sites. The WHO surveys monitor HIVDR prevention in sentinel sites by utilizing a standardized, minimum-resource prospective survey methodology to assess the success of adult and paediatric ART sites in preventing HIVDR emergence during the first year of ART. The surveys also identify associated factors that can be addressed at the level of the ART site or programme. WHO HIVDR monitoring surveys are designed to be integrated easily into a country's ongoing, routine HIV-related evaluation activities. Performed regularly at representative sites, the data generated will inform evidence-based decision making regarding national and global ART regimen selection and minimize the emergence of HIVDR at a population level.

The World Health Organization's global strategy for prevention and assessment of HIV drug resistance.

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) for HIV is being scaled up rapidly in resource-limited countries. Treatment options are simplified and standardized, generally with one potent first-line regimen and one potent alternate first-line regimen recommended. Widespread HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) was initially feared, but reports from resource-limited countries suggest that initial ART programmes are as effective as in resource-rich countries, which should limit HIV drug resistance if programme effectiveness continues during scale-up. ART interruptions must be minimized to maintain viral suppression on the first-line regimen for as long as possible. Lack of availability of appropriate second-line drugs is a concern, as is the additional accumulation of resistance mutations in the absence of viral load testing to determine failure. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a minimum-resource strategy for prevention and assessment of HIVDR in resource-limited countries. The WHO's Global Network HIVResNet provides standardized tools, training, technical assistance, laboratory quality assurance, analysis of results and recommendations for guidelines and public health action. National strategies focus on assessments to guide immediate public health action to improve ART programme effectiveness in minimizing HIVDR and to guide regimen selection. Globally, WHO HIVResNet collects and analyses data to support evidence-based international policies and guidelines. Financial support is provided by major international organizations and technical support from HIVDR experts worldwide. As of December 2007, 25 countries were planning or implementing the strategy; seven countries report results in this supplement.

HIV drug resistance surveillance: summary of an April 2003 WHO consultation.

The widespread use of any antimicrobial agent, including antiretroviral agents, has the potential to select drug-resistant populations of microorganisms. HIV drug-resistant strains have been recognized as a serious threat to the efficacy of current antiretroviral treatments and could jeopardize efforts to increase access to treatment in countries most affected by the HIV epidemic. The WHO Global HIV Drug Resistance Surveillance Programme aims at enhancing and enabling the response to the threat of antiretroviral drug resistance by assessing the geographical and temporal trends in HIV drug resistance, increasing our understanding of the determinants of HIV drug resistance, and identifying ways to minimize its appearance, evolution and spread. Based on a global network of experts and collaborating institutions, the programme is developing and field-testing tools and guidelines for the regular monitoring of the level and spread of HIV resistance, particularly in treatment-naive patients. Although relevant progress has been made, several important challenges still exist to the implementation of this essential and innovative programme.