Current Trends in Mortality Attributable to Racial or Ethnic Disparities in Post-Surgical Population in The United States: A Population-Based Study.

Background: No study has contextualized the excess mortality attributable to racial and ethnic disparities in surgical outcomes. Further, not much effort has been made to quantify the effort needed to eliminate these disparities. Objective: We examined the current trends in mortality attributable to racial or ethnic disparities in the US postsurgical population. We then identified the target for mortality reduction that would be necessary to eliminate these disparities by 2030. Methods: We performed a population-based study of 1,512,974 high-risk surgical procedures among adults (18-64 years) performed across US hospitals between 2000 and 2020. Results: Between 2000 and 2020, the risk-adjusted mortality rates declined for all groups. Nonetheless, Black patients were more likely to die following surgery (adjusted relative risk 1.42; 95% CI, 1.39-1.46) driven by higher Black mortality in the northeast (1.60; 95% CI, 1.52-1.68), as well as the West (1.53; 95% CI, 1.43-1.62). Similarly, mortality risk remained consistently higher for Hispanics compared with White patients (1.21; 95% CI, 1.19-1.24), driven by higher mortality in the West (1.26; 95% CI, 1.21-1.31). Overall, 8364 fewer deaths are required for Black patients to experience mortality on the same scale as White patients. Similar figures for Hispanic patients are 4388. To eliminate the disparity between Black and White patients by 2030, we need a 2.7% annualized reduction in the projected mortality among Black patients. For Hispanics, the annualized reduction needed is 0.8%. Conclusions: Our data provides a framework for incorporating population and health systems measures for eliminating disparity in surgical mortality within the next decade.

Geographic Inequalities in Cardiovascular Mortality in the United States: 1999 to 2018.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the trends in cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and heart failure mortality in the stroke belt in comparison with the rest of the United States. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We evaluated the nationwide mortality data of all Americans from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database from 1999 to 2018. Cause-specific deaths were identified in the stroke belt and nonstroke belt populations using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes. The relative percentage gap was estimated as the absolute difference computed relative to nonstroke belt mortality. Piecewise linear regression and age-period-cohort modeling were used to assess, respectively, the trends and to forecast mortality across the 2 regions. RESULTS: The cardiovascular mortality rate (per 100,000 persons) was 288.3 (95% CI, 288.0 to 288.6; 3,684,273 deaths) in the stroke belt region and 251.2 (95% CI, 251.0 to 251.3; 13,296,164 deaths) in the nonstroke belt region. In the stroke belt region, age-adjusted mortality rates due to all cardiovascular causes (average annual percentage change [AAPC] in mortality rates, -2.4; 95% CI, -2.8 to -2.0), IHD (AAPC, -3.8; 95% CI, -4.2 to -3.5), and stroke (AAPC, -2.8; 95% CI, -3.4 to -2.1) declined from 1999 to 2018. A similar decline in cardiovascular (AAPC, -2.5; 95% CI, -3.0 to -2.0), IHD (AAPC, -4.0; 95% CI, -4.3 to -3.7), and stroke (AAPC, -2.9; 95% CI, -3.2 to -2.2) mortality was seen in the nonstroke belt region. There was no overall change in heart failure mortality in both regions (PAAPC>.05). The cardiovascular mortality gap was 11.8% in 1999 and 15.9% in 2018, with a modest reduction in absolute mortality rate difference (~7 deaths per 100,000 persons). These patterns were consistent across subgroups of age, sex, race, and urbanization status. An estimated 101,953 additional cardiovascular deaths need to be prevented from 2020 to 2025 in the stroke belt to ameliorate the gap between the 2 regions. CONCLUSION: Despite the overall decline, substantial geographic disparities in cardiovascular mortality persist. Novel approaches are needed to attenuate the long-standing geographic inequalities in cardiovascular mortality in the United States, which are projected to increase.

Trends in Mortality Due to Cancer in the United States by Age and County-Level Income, 1999-2015.

Disparities in cancer mortality by county-level income have increased. It is unclear whether these widening disparities have affected older and younger adults equally. National death certificate data were utilized to ascertain cancer deaths during 1999-2015. Average annual percent changes in mortality rates and mortality rate ratios (RRs) were estimated by county-level income quintile and age (25-64 vs ≥65 years). Among 25- to 64-year-olds, cancer mortality rates were 30% higher (RR = 1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.29 to 1.31) in the lowest-vs the highest-income counties in 1999-2001 and 56% higher (RR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.55 to 1.57) in 2013-2015; the disparities among those 65 years and older were smaller but also widened over time (RR1999-2001 = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.05; RR2013-2015 = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.14). Widening disparities occurred across cancer sites. If all counties had the mortality rates of the highest-income counties, 21.5% of cancer deaths among 25- to 64-year-olds and 7.3% of cancer deaths in those 65 years and older would have been avoided in 2015. These results highlight an ongoing need for equity-focused interventions, particularly among younger adults.

Premature mortality from all causes and drug poisonings in the USA according to socioeconomic status and rurality: an analysis of death certificate data by county from 2000-15.

BACKGROUND: Increasing premature mortality among some groups of Americans has been largely driven by increases in drug poisoning deaths. However, to our knowledge, a formal descriptive study by race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, rurality, and geography has not been done. In this study, we examined US trends in premature all-cause and drug poisoning mortality between 2000 and 2015 at the county level among white, black, and Latino people. METHODS: We used US mortality data for the period Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2015, including underlying cause of death and demographic data, collected from death certificates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics, and ascertained county attributes from the 2011-15 Census American Community Survey. We categorised counties into quintiles on the basis of the percentage of people unemployed, the percentage of people with a bachelor's degree, median income, and rurality. We estimated premature (ie, deaths in those aged 25-64 years) age-standardised mortality for all causes (by race and ethnicity) and drug poisoning, by county, for the periods of 2000-03 and 2012-15. We estimated annual percentage changes in mortality (2000-15) by county-level characteristics. FINDINGS: Premature mortality declined from 2000-03 to 2012-15 among black and Latino people, but increased among white people in many US counties. Drug poisoning mortality increased in counties throughout the country. Significant increases between 2000 and 2015 occurred across low and high socioeconomic status and urban and rural counties among white people aged 25-64 years (annual percentage change range 4·56% per year [95% CI 3·56-5·57] to 11·51% per year [9·41-13·65]), black people aged 50-64 years (2·27% per year [0·42-4·16] to 9·46% per year [7·02-11·96]), Latino women aged 25-49 years (2·43% per year [1·18-3·71] to 5·01% per year [3·80-6·23]), and Latino men aged 50-64 years (2·42% per year [0·53-4·34] to 5·96% per year [3·86-8·11]). Although drug poisoning mortality increased rapidly in counties with the lowest socioeconomic status and in rural counties, most deaths during 2012-15 occurred in the largest metropolitan counties (121 395 [76%] in metropolitan counties with ≥250 000 people vs 2175 [1%] in the most rural counties), reflecting population size. INTERPRETATION: Premature mortality has declined among black and Latino people in the USA, and increased among white people, particularly in less affluent and rural counties. Increasing drug poisoning mortality was not limited to poor white people in rural areas. Rapid increases have occurred in communities throughout the USA regardless of race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, or rurality. Widespread public health interventions are needed to addess this public health emergency. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.