Exploratory Analysis of the Economically Justifiable Price of a Hypothetical RSV Vaccine for Older Adults in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: In older adults, the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) resembles that of influenza and may even be considered worse due to the lack of preventive interventions. This study was performed to identify the available literature on RSV infection in older adults, and to provide updated exploratory results of the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical RSV vaccine in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. METHODS: A literature search was performed in Medline and EMBASE on 11 November 2019, which served as input for a static decision-tree model that was used to estimate the EJP, for an RSV vaccine applying different willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. WTP thresholds applied were €20 000 and €50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year for the Netherlands, and £20 000 and £30 000 per quality-adjusted life-year for the United Kingdom. Analyses were-in line with country-specific guidelines-conducted from a societal perspective for the Netherlands and a third-party payer perspective for the United Kingdom. The robustness of the cost-effectiveness results was tested in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: After screening the literature, 3 studies for the Netherlands and 6 for the United Kingdom remained to populate the country-specific models. In the base case analysis for the Netherlands (mean RSV incidence, 3.32%), justifiable vaccine prices of €16.38 and €50.03 were found, based on applying the lower and higher WTP thresholds, respectively. Similarly, for the United Kingdom (mean incidence, 7.13%), vaccine prices of £72.29 and £109.74 were found, respectively. CONCLUSION: RSV vaccination may well be cost-effective in both the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, depending on the exact RSV incidence, vaccine effectiveness and price. However, sensitivity analysis showed that the results were robust based on varying the different parameter estimates and assumptions. With RSV vaccines reaching the final stages of development, a strong need exists for cost-effectiveness studies to understand economically justifiable pricing of the vaccine.

Retrospective cost-effectiveness of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination program in Australia.

BACKGROUND: The Australian infant pneumococcal vaccination program was funded in 2005 using the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) and the 13-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in 2011. The PCV7 and PCV13 programs resulted in herd immunity effects across all age-groups, including older adults. Coincident with the introduction of the PCV7 program in 2005, 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) was funded for all Australian adults aged over 65 years. METHODS: A multi-cohort Markov model with a cycle length of one year was developed to retrospectively evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the PPV23 immunisation program from 2005 to 2015. The analysis was performed from the healthcare system perspective with costs and quality-adjusted life years discounted at 5% annually. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for PPV23 doses provided from 2005 to 2015 was calculated separately for each year when compared to no vaccination. Parameter uncertainty was explored using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: It was estimated that PPV23 doses given out over the 11-year period from 2005 to 2015 prevented 771 hospitalisations and 99 deaths from invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). However, the estimated IPD cases and deaths prevented by PPV23 declined by more than 50% over this period (e.g. from 12.9 deaths for doses given out in 2005 to 6.1 in 2015), likely driven by herd effects from infant PCV programs. The estimated ICER over the period 2005 to 2015 was approximately A$224,000/QALY gained compared to no vaccination. When examined per year, the ICER for each individual year worsened from $140,000/QALY in 2005 to $238,000/QALY in 2011 to $286,000/QALY in 2015. CONCLUSION: The cost-effectiveness of the PPV23 program in older Australians was estimated to have worsened over time. It is unlikely to have been cost-effective, unless PPV23 provided protection against non-invasive pneumococcal pneumonia and/or a low vaccine price was negotiated. A key policy priority should be to review of the future use of PPV23 in Australia, which is likely to be more cost-effective in certain high-risk groups.

Evolution over time in the cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in older Australians due to herd protection from infant vaccination.

In many settings, serotype changes as a result of infant 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) programs are likely to continue after the introduction of adult PCV13 programs. We applied a multi-cohort model to explore how potential serotype changes may impact on the cost-effectiveness of PCV13 use in Australian adults aged over 65 years. We found assumptions around continued herd protection from infant PCV13 programs to be critical when assessing the cost-effectiveness of adult PCV13 vaccination in Australia. Future cost-effectiveness analyses of adult PCV13 programs need to carefully consider how to predict these future changes in serotypes, with Australian data suggesting that the changes post-PCV13 use in infants may be different than post-PCV7.

The role of timeliness in the cost-effectiveness of older adult vaccination: A case study of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Australia.

While the impact of the timeliness of vaccine administration has been well-studied for childhood vaccinations, there has been little detailed quantitative analysis on the potential impact of the timeliness of vaccinations in older adults. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of implementing more realistic observed uptake distributions, taking into the account reduced vaccine efficacy but higher pneumococcal disease burden with increasing age beyond 65 years. A multi-cohort Markov model was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a pneumococcal (PCV13) immunisation program in Australia, assuming two different uptake modelling approaches. The approach using an estimate of observed uptake was compared with a scenario in which the total cumulative uptake was delivered at the recommended age of vaccination. We found these two approaches produced different results both in terms of cases prevented and cost-effectiveness. The impact of the non-timely uptake in adult programs may sometimes have positive and other times negative effects, depending on several factors including the age-specific disease rates and the duration of vaccine protection. Our study highlights the importance of using realistic assumptions around uptake (including non-timely vaccination) when estimating the impact of vaccination in adults.

Cost-effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in older Australians.

BACKGROUND: The 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) has been funded under the Australia National Immunisation Program (NIP) since January 2005 for those aged >65years and other risk groups. In 2016, PCV13 was accepted by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) as a replacement for a single dose of PPV23 in older Australian adults. METHODS: A single-cohort deterministic multi-compartment (Markov) model was developed describing the transition of the population between different invasive and non-invasive pneumococcal disease related health states. We applied a healthcare system perspective with costs (Australian dollars, A$) and health effects (measured in quality adjusted life-years, QALYs) attached to model states and discounted at 5% annually. We explored replacement of PPV23 with PCV13 at 65years as well as other age based vaccination strategies. Parameter uncertainty was explored using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: In a single cohort, we estimated PCV13 vaccination at the age of 65years to cost ∼A$11,120,000 and prevent 39 hospitalisations and 6 deaths from invasive pneumococcal disease and 180 hospitalisations and 10 deaths from community acquired pneumonia. The PCV13 program had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ∼A$88,100 per QALY gained when compared to a no-vaccination, whereas PPV23 was ∼A$297,200 per QALY gained. To fall under a cost-effectiveness threshold of A$60,000 per QALY, PCV13 would have to be priced below ∼A$46 per dose. The cost-effectiveness of PCV13 in comparison to PPV23 was ∼A$35,300 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: In comparison to no-vaccination, we found PCV13 use in those aged 65years was unlikely to be cost-effective unless the vaccine price was below A$46 or a longer duration of protection can be established. However, we found that in comparison to the PPV23, vaccination with PCV13 was cost-effective. This partly reflects the poor value for money estimated for PPV23 use in Australia.

Beyond expectations: Post-implementation data shows rotavirus vaccination is likely cost-saving in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Universal vaccination against rotavirus was included in the funded Australian National Immunisation Program in July 2007. Predictive cost-effectiveness models assessed the program before introduction. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective economic evaluation of the Australian rotavirus program using national level post-implementation data on vaccine uptake, before-after measures of program impact and published estimates of excess intussusception cases. These data were used as inputs into a multi-cohort compartmental model which assigned cost and quality of life estimates to relevant health states, adopting a healthcare payer perspective. The primary outcome was discounted cost per quality adjusted life year gained, including or excluding unspecified acute gastroenteritis (AGE) hospitalisations. RESULTS: Relative to the baseline period (1997-2006), over the 6years (2007-2012) after implementation of the rotavirus program, we estimated that ∼77,000 hospitalisations (17,000 coded rotavirus and 60,000 unspecified AGE) and ∼3 deaths were prevented, compared with an estimated excess of 78 cases of intussusception. Approximately 90% of hospitalisations prevented were in children <5years, with evidence of herd protection in older age groups. The program was cost-saving when observed changes (declines) in both hospitalisations coded as rotavirus and as unspecified AGE were attributed to the rotavirus vaccine program. The adverse impact of estimated excess cases of intussusception was far outweighed by the benefits of the program. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of herd impact and declines in unspecified AGE hospitalisations resulted in the value for money achieved by the Australian rotavirus immunisation program being substantially greater than predicted bypre-implementation models, despite the potential increased cases of intussusception. This Australian experience is likely to be relevant to high-income countries yet to implement rotavirus vaccination programs.

Medical costs of treatment and survival of patients with acute myeloid leukemia in Belgium.

The advent of new cell-based immunotherapies for leukemia offers treatment possibilities for certain leukemia subgroups. The wider acceptability of these new technologies in clinical practice will depend on its impact on survival and costs. Due to the small patient groups who have received it, these aspects have remained understudied. This non-randomized single-center study evaluated medical costs and survival for acute myeloid leukemia between 2005 and 2010 in 50 patients: patients treated with induction and consolidation chemotherapy (ICT) alone; patients treated with ICT plus allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT), which is the current preferred post-remission therapy in patients with intermediate- and poor-risk AML with few co-morbidities, and patients treated with ICT plus immunotherapy using autologous dendritic cells (DC) engineered to express the Wilms' tumor protein (WT1). Total costs including post- consolidation costs on medical care at the hematology ward and outpatient clinic, pharmaceutical prescriptions, intensive care ward, laboratory tests and medical imaging were analyzed. Survival was markedly better in HCT and DC. HCT and DC were more costly than ICT. The median total costs for HCT and DC were similar. These results need to be confirmed to enable more thorough cost-effectiveness analyses, based on observations from multicenter, randomized clinical trials and preferably using quality-adjusted life-years as an outcome measure.

Retrospective economic evaluation of childhood 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in Australia: Uncertain herd impact on pneumonia critical.

BACKGROUND: Retrospective cost-effectiveness analyses of vaccination programs using routinely collected post-implementation data are sparse by comparison with pre-program analyses. We performed a retrospective economic evaluation of the childhood 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) program in Australia. METHODS: We developed a deterministic multi-compartment model that describes health states related to invasive and non-invasive pneumococcal disease. Costs (Australian dollars, A$) and health effects (quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) were attached to model states. The perspective for costs was that of the healthcare system and government. Where possible, we used observed changes in the disease rates from national surveillance and healthcare databases to estimate the impact of the PCV7 program (2005-2010). We stratified our cost-effectiveness results into alternative scenarios which differed by the outcome states included. Parameter uncertainty was explored using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The PCV7 program was estimated to have prevented ∼5900 hospitalisations and ∼160 deaths from invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Approximately half of these were prevented in adults via herd protection. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was ∼A$161,000 per QALY gained when including only IPD-related outcomes. The cost-effectiveness of PCV7 remained in the range A$88,000-$122,000 when changes in various non-invasive disease states were included. The inclusion of observed changes in adult non-invasive pneumonia deaths substantially improved cost-effectiveness (∼A$9000 per QALY gained). CONCLUSION: Using the initial vaccine price negotiated for Australia, the PCV7 program was unlikely to have been cost-effective (at conventional thresholds) unless observed reductions in non-invasive pneumonia deaths in the elderly are attributed to it. Further analyses are required to explore this finding, which has significant implications for the incremental benefit achievable by adult PCV programs.

Health-related quality of life in patients with melanoma expressed as utilities and disability weights.

BACKGROUND: Few studies about health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with melanoma have expressed their results in terms of utilities or disability weights (DWs). Utilities are required for calculating quality-adjusted life years and therefore for cost-effectiveness analyses. DWs are useful to assess the burden of diseases through disability-adjusted life years. OBJECTIVES: To provide utilities and DWs regarding patients with melanoma. METHODS: The patients were classified into eight groups using four stages based on the 2009 American Joint Committee on Cancer stages, with each stage subdivided into treatment and remission phases. The EuroQoL Five Dimensions Five Levels (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire was completed by the patients with melanoma to provide a mean utility for each group. In addition to this, the EuroQoL visual analogue scale (VAS) and a validated quality-of-life questionnaire dedicated to patients with melanoma [Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy Melanoma (FACT-M)] were completed by the same patients in order to compare their results with the obtained utilities. DWs were obtained by calculating, for each patient, the difference between his/her utility and the corresponding sex- and age-specific population norm. RESULTS: A total of 395 questionnaire sets were completed. Utilities and DWs showed significant differences between follow-up groups. Treatment groups had similar utilities and DWs but these results were obtained during different treatment durations and therefore have different weights. The VAS and the FACT-M were found to be less sensitive. Nevertheless, the FACT-M identified some problems not found by the EQ-5D-5L questionnaire. CONCLUSIONS: The EQ-5D-5L questionnaire seems adequate to provide utilities and DWs in patients with melanoma. Lower HRQoL in female patients with melanoma is probably linked to lower HRQoL in the general population.

Economic evaluations of implemented vaccination programmes: key methodological challenges in retrospective analyses.

Post-implementation evaluation should play an important role in assessing the success of public health programmes; however, the value for money achieved by vaccine programmes after introduction has received relatively little attention to date. In this article we explore the methodological challenges in these analyses and offer direction for future evaluations in the area. We identify alternative approaches to addressing these challenges, which include the estimation of disease changes attributable to vaccination efforts, the hypothetical no vaccination comparator scenario and the full benefit achieved by implemented vaccination programmes. We also outline other important considerations such as the evolution of prices over time. Further work needs to be done to explore these issues and to determine how the application of different approaches may impact on the results of evaluations in various circumstances. As retrospective analyses are likely to become more frequent and influential, it is important that both the benefits and the limitations of post-implementation evaluations are recognised and understood. We argue that it would be useful to establish a methodological framework to provide standards and guidance on how to undertake such analyses in the future.

[Opinions and attitudes of Flemish pharmacists and general practitioners towards INN prescribing. A survery in Antwerp and East Flanders]. / Avis et attitudes des pharmaciens et des médecins généralistes vis-à-vis de la prescription en DCI. Enquête réalisée à Anvers et en Flandre Orientate.

INTRODUCTION: Since 2002 in Belgium, physicians are allowed to prescribe by International Non-proprietary Name (INN). In 2005, the conditions for this decree were set. Examples from other countries have shown that INN prescribing can significantly contribute to controlling pharmaceutical expenditures. The share of INN prescriptions remains low in Belgium (7% in 2011). OBJECTIVE: To formulate an answer to the question: what are the opinions and attitudes of pharmacists and general practitioners [GP's] with regards to INN prescribing? METHOD: In the winter of 2011-2012, a questionnaire with closed-ended questions was send to pharmacists and GP's in the provinces of Antwerp and East-Flanders, through training days and personal visits. Pharmacists and GP's scored a list of statements with a 5-point Likert scale. The themes of the statements related to: delivering INN prescriptions, legislation, impact on expenditures, choices regarding patient concerns and interprofessional relations. RESULTS: In total, 353 questionnaires were completed and returned of which 228 165%1 were by pharmacists and 125 (35%1 by GP's. Although both declared to be sufficiently up to date with regulations to prescribe (84%) or to deliver (95%] a INN prescription, only 13% of the pharmacists said all prescription they receive contain the correct information. Less GP's [36%) than pharmacists (82%] feel aided by their software program when prescribing or delivering an INN prescription. GP's rely mostly on NIHDI (National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance) as the main source for information on INN prescribing, pharmacists rely on the [Local) pharmacists association. The pharmacists and GP's in the study who relied on NIHDI as main information source, were less aware of legislation concerning INN [N2, p<0,05] than those who rely on the local professional association [N2, p<0,0001]. All pharmacists in the study said to consider the patients medication history when delivering an INN prescription for chronic treatment. However, 57% of the GP's preferred not to prescribe by INN for the reason that they are not sure whether the pharmacist will always consider the patients medication history in case of an INN prescription. Although the GP's showed certain motivation to prescribe by INN, it was no greater than for generic prescribing. And INN prescribing has no added value compared to generic prescribing, according to the GP's. For the pharmacists, INN prescribing does contain an opportunity. With the increase in numbers of dosages and sorts of packaging of generic products, it becomes more and more difficult for pharmacists to manage their stock. In case of an INN prescription, the pharmacist can choose between the different packages in his stock. This offers opportunities especially for acute conditions. CONCLUSION: INN prescribing is a good example of where the collaboration between pharmacists and GP's still contains a lot of opportunities, as well for the two professions, as the government and the patient in terms of controlling the pharmaceutical expenditures. Also the education for pharmacist or GP can further contribute to the sensitization of INN prescribing. In practice, there remain a number of issues and differences in opinions between pharmacists and general practitioners regarding INN prescribing. GP's feel few motivation to prescribe by INN and the government has put no imperative demands towards prescribers. Further evaluation of the practicaL feasibility of the current conditions for prescribing and delivering INN prescriptions is needed.

Cost analysis in favor of a combined approach for cytomegalovirus after kidney transplantation: a single-center experience.

BACKGROUND: In kidney transplant recipients, cytomegalovirus (CMV) can cause significant morbidity, mortality, and costs, which can be prevented by universal antiviral prophylaxis or preemptive therapy. METHODS: With the aim to improve our understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of these interventions, we documented resource use for 101 consecutive kidney transplant recipients in our center receiving preemptive therapy and estimated resource use for 2 alternative scenarios. RESULTS: At 100 days after transplantation, the mean total costs of our preemptive strategy including monitoring and treatment with intravenous ganciclovir was €2545 per patient. At €4853 per patient, these costs were highest for the CMV-positive donor/CMV-negative recipient (D+/R-) patient subgroup (n = 28), who frequently require recurrent treatment. A treatment scenario with valganciclovir prophylaxis for D+/R- and R+ patients, in which we ignored late-onset disease after discontinuation of prophylaxis, resulted in an estimated cost of €1892 per patient. A combined approach using valganciclovir prophylaxis in the D+/R- group and a preemptive strategy in the R+ groups would result in the lowest mean and median costs per patient (€1701). CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that a combined approach, using valganciclovir prophylaxis in D+/R- patients and preemptive treatment in R+ patients, may result in the lowest cost. This approach seems reasonable as it restricts expensive prophylactic drug therapy to those who would benefit the most, whereas it limits the risk for drug toxicity and late-onset disease in those at lower risk for CMV.

Potential impact of policy regulation and generic competition on sales of cholesterol lowering medication, antidepressants and acid blocking agents in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Pharmaceutical expenditures are increasing as a proportion of health expenditures in most rich countries. Antidepressants, acid blocking agents and cholesterol lowering medication are major contributors to medicine sales around the globe. METHODS: We aimed to document the possible impact of policy regulations and generic market penetration on the evolution of sales volume and average cost per unit (Defined Daily Doses and packages) of antidepressants, acid blocking agents and cholesterol lowering medication. We extracted data from the IMS health database regarding the public price and sales volume of the antidepressants (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI's), monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOl's) and tricyclic and remaining antidepressants (TCA's)), acid blocking agents (proton pump inhibitors (PPl's) and H2 receptor antagonists) and cholesterol lowering medication (statins and fibrates) in Belgium between 1995 and 2009. We describe these sales data in relation to various national policy measures which were systematically searched in official records. RESULTS: Our analysis suggests that particular policy regulations have had immediate impact on sales figures and expenditures on pharmaceuticals in Belgium: changes in reimbursement conditions, a public tender and entry of generic competitors in a reference pricing system. However, possible sustainable effects seem to be counteracted by other mechanisms such as marketing strategies, prescribing behaviour, brand loyalty and the entry of pseudogenerics. It is likely that demand-side measures have a more sustainable impact on expenditure. CONCLUSION: Compared with other European countries, generic penetration in Belgium remains low. Alternative policy regulations aimed at enlarging the generic market and influencing pharmaceutical expenditures deserve consideration. This should include policies aiming to influence physicians' prescribing and a shared responsibility of pharmacists, physicians and patients towards expenditures.

The health and economic burden of chickenpox and herpes zoster in Belgium.

Varicella-zoster virus causes chickenpox (CP) and after reactivation herpes zoster (HZ). Vaccines are available against both diseases warranting an assessment of the pre-vaccination burden of disease. We collected data from relevant Belgian databases and performed five surveys of CP and HZ patients. The rates at which a general practitioner is visited at least once for CP and HZ are 346 and 378/100 000 person-years, respectively. The average CP and HZ hospitalization rates are 5·3 and 14·2/100 000 person-years respectively. The direct medical cost for HZ is about twice as large as the direct medical cost for CP. The quality-adjusted life years lost for ambulatory CP patients consulting a physician is more than double that of those not consulting a physician (0·010 vs. 0·004). In conclusion, both diseases cause a substantial burden in Belgium.

Introduction of human papillomavirus vaccination in Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

AIMS: To document progress with human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine introduction in three closely related European countries, one with organized (the Netherlands) and two with opportunistic cervical cancer screening (Belgium and Luxembourg). METHODS: Experts involved in cervical cancer screening and national immunization programs from the three countries were contacted to provide information on the decision-making process concerning the introduction of HPV vaccine. Sales statistics were obtained from Intercontinental Marketing Services. RESULTS: Advisory boards in all three countries advised organized HPV vaccination of girls of 12 years with variable catch-up policies. In Belgium, the national health authority partially reimburses the HPV vaccine for girls of 12-15 years (recently extended until 18 years). In Luxembourg, 12-year-old girls are invited for free vaccination, but the HPV vaccine is also free of charge for female adolescents of 13-17 years. The number of vaccines reimbursed in Belgium in December 2007 to May 2008 corresponds with the amount required to fully vaccinate 29% of the female population aged 12-15 years. In Luxembourg, between March and November 2008, the immunization program delivered a quantity of HPV vaccines which theoretically covered 29% of females aged 12-17 years. In the Netherlands, nationwide HPV vaccination of girls of 12 years will start in September 2009. The sales of HPV vaccines (all ages combined) were by far the lowest in the Netherlands. CONCLUSION: Up to the end of 2008, HPV vaccination efforts reached less than a third of the target population in Belgium and Luxembourg. If the latest trend continues, the current policy is expected to reach to most half of the target population. Well-planned introduction of vaccination combined with an organized screening program and active surveillance are crucial for the program to achieve and monitor its desired aims. Such surveillance should include linkage between vaccination, screening and cancer registries.

Introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Belgium, 2007-2008.

This paper documents the progress of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine introduction in Belgium. Information on vaccine use is based on sales statistics and reimbursement claims. From November 2007 to November 2008, the National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance reimbursed the HPV vaccine for girls aged between 12-15 years. In December 2008, the age limit was extended to include girls up to the age of 18. In November 2008, the total number of HPV vaccines sold exceeded 530,000 doses. The number of vaccines reimbursed in Belgium, for the period November 2007-November 2008, corresponds to the amount required to fully vaccinate 44% of all girls aged between 12-15 years. However, the trend was decreasing over the last 10 months. By the current reimbursement policy, we can expect that maximum half of the target population can be reached. In Flanders (one of the three Communities in Belgium), the intention is to start, from September 2010, with a free school-based HPV immunisation for girls in the first year of secondary school (12 years of age), complemented with vaccination by a physician of choice. This strategy ensures a higher HPV vaccine coverage which is expected to be as high as the current coverage in the hepatitis B vaccination programme (approximately 80%) offered to boys and girls in the same age group and under the same circumstances.