Risk Score for Predicting 2-Year Mortality in Patients With Chagas Cardiomyopathy From Endemic Areas: SaMi-Trop Cohort Study.

Background Risk stratification of Chagas disease patients in the limited-resource setting would be helpful in crafting management strategies. We developed a score to predict 2-year mortality in patients with Chagas cardiomyopathy from remote endemic areas. Methods and Results This study enrolled 1551 patients with Chagas cardiomyopathy from Minas Gerais State, Brazil, from the SaMi-Trop cohort (The São Paulo-Minas Gerais Tropical Medicine Research Center). Clinical evaluation, ECG, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) were performed. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop a prediction model based on the key predictors. The end point was all-cause mortality. The patients were classified into 3 risk categories at baseline (low, <2%; intermediate, ≥2% to 10%; high, ≥10%). External validation was performed by applying the score to an independent population with Chagas disease. After 2 years of follow-up, 110 patients died, with an overall mortality rate of 3.505 deaths per 100 person-years. Based on the nomogram, the independent predictors of mortality were assigned points: age (10 points per decade), New York Heart Association functional class higher than I (15 points), heart rate ≥80 beats/min (20 points), QRS duration ≥150 ms (15 points), and abnormal NT-proBNP adjusted by age (55 points). The observed mortality rates in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 0%, 3.6%, and 32.7%, respectively, in the derivation cohort and 3.2%, 8.7%, and 19.1%, respectively, in the validation cohort. The discrimination of the score was good in the development cohort (C statistic: 0.82), and validation cohort (C statistic: 0.71). Conclusions In a large population of patients with Chagas cardiomyopathy, a combination of risk factors accurately predicted early mortality. This helpful simple score could be used in remote areas with limited technological resources.

Increased risk of death and readmission after hospital discharge of critically ill patients in a developing country: a retrospective multicenter cohort study.

PURPOSE: To describe long-term mortality and hospital readmissions of patients admitted to Brazilian intensive care units (ICU). METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted to Brazilian hospitals affiliated to the Public Healthcare System from 10 state capitals. ICU patients were paired to non-ICU patients by frequency matching (ratio 1:2), according to postal code and admission semester. Hospitalization records were linked through deterministic linkage to national mortality data. Primary outcome was mortality up to 1 year. Other outcomes were mortality and readmissions at 30 and 90 days and 3 years. Multiple Cox regressions were used adjusting for age, sex, cancer diagnosis, type of hospital, and surgical status. RESULTS: We included 324,594 patients (108,302 ICU and 216,292 non-ICU). ICU patients had increased hospital length of stay [9 (5-17) vs. 3 (1-6) days, p < 0.001] and mortality (18.5 vs. 3.6%, p < 0.001) versus non-ICU patients. One year after discharge, ICU patients were more frequently readmitted to hospital (25.4 vs. 17.4%, p < 0.001) and to ICU (31.4 vs. 7.3%, p < 0.001) than controls. Mortality up to 1 year was also higher for ICU patients (14.3 vs. 3.9%, p < 0.001). A significant interaction between surgical status and mortality was found, with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) up to 1 year of 2.7 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.5-2.9] for surgical patients, and 3.4 (95%CI 3.3-3.5) for medical patients. The risk for death and readmission diminished over time up to 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: In a public healthcare system of a developing country, ICU patients have excessive long-term mortality and frequent readmissions. The ICU burden tended to reduce over time after hospital discharge.

Combined effect of PCV10 and meningococcal C conjugate vaccination on meningitis mortality among children under five years of age in Brazil.

The 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in the Brazilian National Immunization Program in March 2010, scheduled at 2, 4, and 6 months, with a booster at 12-15 months of age. The meningococcal C conjugate vaccine (MCC) was introduced in November 2010, scheduled at 3 and 5 months, with a booster dose at 12-15 months of age and no catch-up for older age groups. In this interrupted time-series analysis study, we used Brazilian mortality data from 2005 to 2015 for children under five years of age (excluding data from the state of Bahia) to assess the combined impact of these vaccines on the overall burden of meningitis mortality among children aged 0-23 months and 2-4 years, as defined using meningitis and meningococcemia specific International Classification of Diseases - tenth revision codes. Secular trends and seasonality were taken into account. We found significant reductions for both age groups relative to those observed for the comparison group of diseases, with immediate effects after the transition period (2010-2011) of 29.2% and 27.5% for children aged 0-23 months and 2-4 years, respectively. These immediate effects were sustained throughout the post-vaccination period (2012-2015). In total, 337 deaths were averted by the combined effect of both vaccines, 238 (95%CI 169-319) for children aged 0-23 months and 99 (95%CI 56-144) for those aged 2-4 years. These results add strong evidence in support of investments in these vaccines by low and middle-income countries.

Direct and indirect impact of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction on pneumonia hospitalizations and economic burden in all age-groups in Brazil: A time-series analysis.

Background: Ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in the National Immunization Program of Brazil in March/2010. Although there are recent reports of PCV10 impact on pneumonia hospitalizations, there is still uncertainty regarding the indirect impact in individuals non-targeted by vaccination. We assessed both direct and indirect effect of PCV10 on pneumonia hospitalizations and the impact on the economic burden of pneumonia hospitalizations. Methods: An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted considering monthly rates of pneumonia hospitalizations and comparison groups, in all age-groups, from January/2005-December/2015. We used records of the National Hospitalizations Information System. Observed pneumonia rates in the post-vaccination period (2011­2015) were compared to predicted rates, should PCV10 had not been introduced. Relative percent difference in rates and its 95% confidence interval were estimated. The number of pneumonia hospitalizations averted by vaccination was calculated as the difference between the predicted and observed cumulative number of pneumonia hospitalizations in the post-vaccination period. The impact of PCV10 on economic burden was presented as averted costs of pneumonia hospitalization. Results: Significant decrease in rates of pneumonia hospitalization was observed in both children targeted by vaccination (17.4%­26.5%; p<0.01), and in age-groups not targeted by vaccination (11.1%­27.1%, in individuals 10­49 years; p<0.01). In contrast, PCV10 introduction did not alter the increasing trends in pneumonia hospitalization among elderly ≥65 years. A total of 457,564 pneumonia hospitalizations was averted in Brazil for individuals aged <50 years, with a total averted costs of BRL 383.2 million (Int$ 225.2 million, and USD 147 million) for the 5 year period after PCV introduction. Conclusion: Vaccination with PCV10 5 years after its introduction in Brazil was associated with a relevant reduction in pneumonia hospitalization in the target age-groups, with an indirect effect in individuals aged 10­49 years, and significant reduction in associated economic burden. The increasing trends in pneumonia hospitalization rates in the elderly is a matter of concern for public health and should be further investigated.

Bacterial Meningitis in Brazil: Baseline Epidemiologic Assessment of the Decade Prior to the Introduction of Pneumococcal and Meningococcal Vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial meningitis is associated with significant burden in Brazil. In 2010, both 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and meningococcal capsular group C conjugate vaccine were introduced into the routine vaccination schedule. Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine was previously introduced in 1999. This study presents trends in demographics, microbiological characteristics and seasonality patterns of bacterial meningitis cases in Brazil from 2000 to 2010. METHODS AND FINDINGS: All meningitis cases confirmed by clinical and/or laboratory criteria notified to the national information system for notifiable diseases between 2000 and 2010 were analyzed. Proportions of bacterial meningitis cases by demographic characteristics, criteria used for confirmation and etiology were calculated. We estimated disease rates per 100,000 population and trends for the study period, with emphasis on H. influenzae, N. meningitidis and S. pneumoniae cases. In the decade, 341,805 cases of meningitis were notified in Brazil. Of the 251,853 cases with defined etiology, 110,264 (43.8%) were due to bacterial meningitis (excluding tuberculosis). Of these, 34,997 (31.7%) were due to meningococcal disease. The incidence of bacterial meningitis significantly decreased from 3.1/100,000 population in 2000-2002 to 2.14/100,000 in 2009-2010 (p<0.01). Among cases of meningococcal disease, the proportion of those associated with group C increased from 41% in 2007 to 61.7% in 2010, while the proportion of group B disease progressively declined. Throughout the study period, an increased number of cases occurred during winter. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the reduction in bacterial meningitis incidence during the last decade, it remains a significant healthcare issue in Brazil. Meningococcal disease is responsible for the majority of the cases with group C the most common capsular type. Our study demonstrates the appropriateness of introduction of meningococcal vaccination in Brazil. Furthermore, this study provides a baseline for future evaluation of the impact of the vaccines introduction in Brazil and changes in disease epidemiology.

Effect of 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine on pneumonia among children, Brazil.

Pneumonia is most problematic for children in developing countries. In 2010, Brazil introduced a 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) to its National Immunization Program. To assess the vaccine's effectiveness for preventing pneumonia, we analyzed rates of hospitalization among children 2-24 months of age who had pneumonia from all causes from January 2005 through August 2011. We used data from the National Hospitalization Information System to conduct an interrupted time-series analysis for 5 cities in Brazil that had good data quality and high PCV10 vaccination coverage. Of the 197,975 hospitalizations analyzed, 30% were for pneumonia. Significant declines in hospitalizations for pneumonia were noted in Belo Horizonte (28.7%), Curitiba (23.3%), and Recife (27.4%) but not in São Paulo and Porto Alegre. However, in the latter 2 cities, vaccination coverage was less than that in the former 3. Overall, 1 year after introduction of PCV10, hospitalizations of children for pneumonia were reduced.