Odds of return: a prospective study using provider assessment to predict short-term patient return visits to the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have assessed patient-level characteristics associated with emergency department (ED) return visits, but none have used provider assessment. We prospectively investigate whether clinical providers could accurately predict ED return visits. METHODS: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Single academically affiliated urban county hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Discharged ED patients over a 14-month period with a provider assessment of the likelihood of patient return within 7 days of ED discharge. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome of interest was a return visit to the ED within 7 days. Additional outcome measures included a return visit within 72 hours and a return visit resulting in admission. We also measured the accuracy of provider gestalt, and provide measures of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios. RESULTS: Of the 11 922 ED discharges included in this study, providers expected 2116 (17.7%) to result in a return visit within 7 days. Providers were much more likely to perceive a return visit if the patient left against medical advice (OR: 5.97, 95% CI: 4.67 to 7.62), or was homeless (OR: 5.69, 95% CI: 5.14 to 6.29). Patients who actually returned were also more likely to be homeless, English speaking and to have left the ED against medical advice on the initial encounter. The strongest predictor of a return visit at both 72 hours and 7 days in multivariable modelling was provider assessment (OR: 3.77, 95% CI: 3.25 to 4.37; OR: 3.72, 95% CI: 3.29 to 4.21, respectively). Overall sensitivity and specificity of provider gestalt as a measure of patient return within 7 days were 47% and 87%, respectively. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 3.51 and 0.61, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Clinician assessment was the strongest predictor of a return visit in this dataset. Clinician assessment may be used as a way to screen patients during the index visit and enrol them in efforts to decrease return visits.

Qualitative needs assessment for paediatric emergency care in Kampala, Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: Acute childhood illnesses, such as malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhoea, represent the leading causes of under-five mortality in Uganda. Given that most early child deaths are treatable with timely interventions, emergency units dedicated to paediatric populations have been established in the country. In light of recent developments, the department of paediatrics at Makerere University requested a needs assessment in the paediatric acute care unit (PACU) at Mulago National Referral Hospital, which could guide the development of a new training curriculum for medical providers. METHODS: We administered a survey for medical providers working in the PACU at Mulago Hospital, which assessed their self-rated comfort levels with paediatric assessment, treatment, and teamwork skills. We also conducted focus groups with a smaller subset of medical providers to understand barriers and facilitators to paediatric emergency and critical care. RESULTS: Of 35 paediatric assessment, treatment, and teamwork skills, 29 (83%) questions had the median comfort rating of 6 or 7 on a 7-point Likert scale. The remaining 6 (17%) skills had a median comfort rating of 5 or lower. Focus groups identified a number of major barriers to caring for critically ill children, including limited resources and staffing, training gaps, and challenges with interprofessional teamwork. In terms of training development, focus group participants suggested continuous training for all medical providers working in the PACU led by local leaders. DISCUSSION: This study identified the need and desirability of continuous trainings in the PACU. Key components include objective skills assessment, simulation-based scenarios, and interprofessional teamwork. Training development should be augmented by increases in resources, staffing, and training opportunities in collaboration with the Uganda Ministry of Health.

Analysis of Financial Management in public Emergency Medical Services sector: Case study of the Department of Emergency Medical Services, Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of the study was to critically analyse financial management of the public Emergency Medical Services (EMS) sector with specific focus on the financing methods for public EMS. METHODS: The study is a descriptive cross-sectional quantitative survey. It was conducted in the Department of EMS at the Ministry of Health, Uganda. A census was conducted for all twenty-one members of the Department of EMS. Data was collected with the use of a structured questionnaire. RESULTS: The prominent sources of funding towards EMS in Uganda included government, development partners and charity organizations. The most highlighted factors constraining financial management of EMS included reduced government funding, bureaucracies within government agencies and increasing costs of running EMS. The major strategies to improve on the financial constraints included formation of a national insurance scheme, increasing government's contribution and forming Public-Private Partnerships. CONCLUSION: The department seemed to be taking on the trend of the developed world in form of strategies to combat financial management constraints which is a step in the right direction but should be cognizant of the challenges this could bring on due to adaptation of these practices. The department of EMS still had a narrow scope of funding sources mainly circling around government and development partner support and was utilizing less of the more contemporary sources mainly exercised by the developed world.

Acute Care Referral Systems in Liberia: Transfer and Referral Capabilities in a Low-Income Country.

Introduction Following two decades of armed conflict in Liberia, over 95% of health care facilities were partially or completely destroyed. Although the Liberian health system has undergone significant rehabilitation, one particular weakness is the lack of organized systems for referral and prehospital care. Acute care referral systems are a critical component of effective health care delivery and have led to improved quality of care and patient outcomes. Problem This study aimed to characterize the referral and transfer systems in the largest county of Liberia. METHODS: A cross-sectional, health referral survey of a representative sample of health facilities in Montserrado County, Liberia was performed. A systematic random sample of all primary health care (PHC) clinics, fraction proportional to district population size, and all secondary and tertiary health facilities were included in the study sample. Collected data included baseline information about the health facility, patient flow, and qualitative and quantitative data regarding referral practices. RESULTS: A total of 62 health facilities-41 PHC clinics, 11 health centers (HCs), and 10 referral hospitals (RHs)-were surveyed during the 6-week study period. In sum, three percent of patients were referred to a higher-level of care. Communication between health facilities was largely unsystematic, with lack of specific protocols (n=3; 5.0%) and standardized documentation (n=26; 44.0%) for referral. While most health facilities reported walking as the primary means by which patients presented to initial health facilities (n=50; 81.0%), private vehicles, including commercial taxis (n=37; 60.0%), were the primary transport mechanism for referral of patients between health facilities. CONCLUSION: This study identified several weaknesses in acute care referral systems in Liberia, including lack of systematic care protocols for transfer, documentation, communication, and transport. However, several informal, well-functioning mechanisms for referral exist and could serve as the basis for a more robust system. Well-integrated acute care referral systems in low-income countries, like Liberia, may help to mitigate future public health crises by augmenting a country's capacity for emergency preparedness. Kim J , Barreix M , Babcock C , Bills CB . Acute care referral systems in Liberia: transfer and referral capabilities in a low-income country. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(6):642-650.

The academic health center in complex humanitarian emergencies: lessons learned from the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

On January 12, 2010, a 7.0-magnitude earthquake struck Haiti. The event disrupted infrastructure and was marked by extreme morbidity and mortality. The global response to the disaster was rapid and immense, comprising multiple actors-including academic health centers (AHCs)-that provided assistance in the field and from home. The authors retrospectively examine the multidisciplinary approach that the University of Chicago Medicine (UCM) applied to postearthquake Haiti, which included the application of institutional structure and strategy, systematic deployment of teams tailored to evolving needs, and the actual response and recovery. The university mobilized significant human and material resources for deployment within 48 hours and sustained the effort for over four months. In partnership with international and local nongovernmental organizations as well as other AHCs, the UCM operated one of the largest and more efficient acute field hospitals in the country. The UCM's efforts in postearthquake Haiti provide insight into the role AHCs can play, including their strengths and limitations, in complex disasters. AHCs can provide necessary intellectual and material resources as well as technical expertise, but the cost and speed required for responding to an emergency, and ongoing domestic responsibilities, may limit the response of a large university and hospital system. The authors describe the strong institutional backing, the detailed predeployment planning and logistical support UCM provided, the engagement of faculty and staff who had previous experience in complex humanitarian emergencies, and the help of volunteers fluent in the local language which, together, made UCM's mission in postearthquake Haiti successful.

Media coverage of violent deaths in iraQ: an opportunistic capture-recapture assessment.

INTRODUCTION: Western media coverage of the violence associated with the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq has contrasted in magnitude and nature with population-based survey reports. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the extent to which first-hand reports of violent deaths were captured in the English language media by conducting in-depth interviews with Iraqi citizens. METHODS: The England-based Iraq Body Count (IBC) has methodically monitored media reports and recorded each violent death in Iraq that could be confirmed by two English language media sources. Using the capture-recapture method, 25 Masters' Degree students were assigned to interview residents in Iraq and asked them to describe 10 violent deaths that occurred closest to their home since the 2003 invasion. Students then matched these reports with those documented in IBC. These reports were matched both individually and crosschecked in groups to obtain a percentage of those deaths captured in the English language media. RESULTS: Eighteen out of 25 students successfully interviewed someone in Iraq. Six contacted individuals by telephone, while the others conducted interviews via e-mail. One out of seven (14%) phone contacts refused to participate. Seventeen out of 18 primary interviewees resided in Baghdad, however, some interviewees reported deaths of neighbors that occurred while the neighbors were elsewhere. The Baghdad residents reported 161 deaths in total, 39 of which (24%) were believed to be reported in the press as summarized by IBC. An additional 13 deaths (8%) might have been in the database, and 61 (38%) were absolutely not in the database. CONCLUSIONS: The vast majority of violent deaths (estimated from the results of this study as being between 68-76%) are not reported by the press. Efforts to monitor events by press coverage or reports of tallies similar to those reported in the press, should be evaluated with the suspicion applied to any passive surveillance network: that it may be incomplete. Even in the most heavily reported conflicts, the media may miss the majority of violent events.