Estimated Annual Healthcare Costs After Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Results From a Prospective Multicentre Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Patients surviving acute pulmonary embolism (PE) necessitate long-term treatment and follow-up. However, the chronic economic impact of PE on European healthcare systems remains to be determined. METHODS AND RESULTS: We calculated the direct cost of illness during the first year after discharge for the index PE, analyzing data from a multicentre prospective cohort study in Germany. Main and accompanying readmission diagnoses were used to calculate DRG-based hospital reimbursements; anticoagulation costs were estimated from the exact treatment duration and each drug's unique national identifier; and outpatient post-PE care costs from guidelines-recommended algorithms and national reimbursement catalogues. Of 1017 patients enrolled at 17 centres, 958 (94%) completed ≥ 3-month follow-up; of those, 24% were rehospitalized (0.34 [95% CI 0.30-0.39] readmissions per PE survivor). Age, coronary artery, pulmonary and kidney disease, diabetes, and (in the sensitivity analysis of 837 patients with complete 12-month follow-up) cancer, but not recurrent PE, were independent cost predictors by hurdle gamma regression accounting for zero readmissions. Estimated rehospitalization cost was €1138 (95% CI 896-1420) per patient. Anticoagulation duration was 329 (IQR 142-365) days, with estimated average per-patient costs of €1050 (median 972; IQR 458-1197); costs of scheduled ambulatory follow-up visits amounted to €181. Total estimated direct per-patient costs during the first year after PE ranged from €2369 (primary analysis) to €2542 (sensitivity analysis). CONCLUSIONS: By estimating per-patient costs and identifying cost drivers of post-PE care, our study may inform decisions concerning implementation and reimbursement of follow-up programmes aiming at improved cardiovascular prevention. (Trial registration number: DRKS00005939).

Drivers and recent trends of hospitalisation costs related to acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The socio-economic burden imposed by acute pulmonary embolism (PE) on European healthcare systems is largely unknown. We sought to determine temporal trends and identify cost drivers of hospitalisation for PE in Germany. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed the totality of reimbursed hospitalisation costs in Germany (G-DRG system) in the years 2016-2020. Overall, 484 884 PE hospitalisations were coded in this period. Direct hospital costs amounted to a median of 3572 (IQR, 2804 to 5869) euros, resulting in average total reimbursements of 710 million euros annually. Age, PE severity, comorbidities and in-hospital (particularly bleeding) complications were identified by multivariable logistic regression as significant cost drivers. Use of catheter-directed therapy (CDT) constantly increased (annual change in the absolute proportion of hospitalisations with CDT + 0.40% [95% CI + 0.32% to + 0.47%]; P < 0.001), and it more than doubled in the group of patients with severe PE (28% of the entire population) over time. Although CDT use was overall associated with increased hospitalisation costs, this association was no longer present (adjusted OR 1.02 [0.80-1.31]) in patients with severe PE and shock; this was related, at least in part, to a reduction in the median length of hospital stay (for 14.0 to 8.0 days). CONCLUSIONS: We identified current and emerging cost drivers of hospitalisation for PE, focusing on severe disease and intermediate/high risk of an adverse early outcome. The present study may inform reimbursement decisions by policymakers and help to guide future health economic analysis of advanced treatment options for patients with PE.

Intraindividual time-varying dynamic network of affects: linear autoregressive mixed-effects models for ecological momentary assessment.

An interesting recent development in emotion research and clinical psychology is the discovery that affective states can be modeled as a network of temporally interacting moods or emotions. Additionally, external factors like stressors or treatments can influence the mood network by amplifying or dampening the activation of specific moods. Researchers have turned to multilevel autoregressive models to fit these affective networks using intensive longitudinal data gathered through ecological momentary assessment. Nonetheless, a more comprehensive examination of the performance of such models is warranted. In our study, we focus on simple directed intraindividual networks consisting of two interconnected mood nodes that mutually enhance or dampen each other. We also introduce a node representing external factors that affect both mood nodes unidirectionally. Importantly, we disregard the potential effects of a current mood/emotion on the perception of external factors. We then formalize the mathematical representation of such networks by exogenous linear autoregressive mixed-effects models. In this representation, the autoregressive coefficients signify the interactions between moods, while external factors are incorporated as exogenous covariates. We let the autoregressive and exogenous coefficients in the model have fixed and random components. Depending on the analysis, this leads to networks with variable structures over reasonable time units, such as days or weeks, which are captured by the variability of random effects. Furthermore, the fixed-effects parameters encapsulate a subject-specific network structure. Leveraging the well-established theoretical and computational foundation of linear mixed-effects models, we transform the autoregressive formulation to a classical one and utilize the existing methods and tools. To validate our approach, we perform simulations assuming our model as the true data-generating process. By manipulating a predefined set of parameters, we investigate the reliability and feasibility of our approach across varying numbers of observations, levels of noise intensity, compliance rates, and scalability to higher dimensions. Our findings underscore the challenges associated with estimating individualized parameters in the context of common longitudinal designs, where the required number of observations may often be unattainable. Moreover, our study highlights the sensitivity of autoregressive mixed-effect models to noise levels and the difficulty of scaling due to the substantial number of parameters.

Modelling costs of interventional pulmonary embolism treatment: implications of US trends for a European healthcare system.

AIMS: Catheter-directed treatment (CDT) of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is entering a growth phase in Europe following a steady increase in the USA in the past decade, but the potential economic impact on European healthcare systems remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We built two statistical models for the monthly trend of proportion of CDT among patients with severe (intermediate- or high-risk) PE in the USA. The conservative model was based on admission data from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) 2016-20 and the model reflecting increasing access to advanced treatment from the PERT™ national quality assurance database registry 2018-21. By applying these models to the forecast of annual PE-related hospitalizations in Germany, we calculated the annual number of severe PE cases and the expected increase in CDT use for the period 2025-30. The NIS-based model yielded a slow increase, reaching 3.1% (95% confidence interval 3.0-3.2%) among all hospitalizations with PE in 2030; in the PERT-based model, increase would be steeper, reaching 8.7% (8.3-9.2%). Based on current reimbursement rates, we estimated an increase of annual costs for PE-related hospitalizations in Germany ranging from 15.3 to 49.8 million euros by 2030. This calculation does not account for potential cost savings, including those from reduced length of hospital stay. CONCLUSION: Our approach and results, which may be adapted to other European healthcare systems, provide a benchmark for healthcare costs expected to result from CDT. Data from ongoing trials on clinical benefits and cost savings are needed to determine cost-effectiveness and inform reimbursement decisions.

Healthcare resource utilisation and associated costs after low-risk pulmonary embolism: pre-specified analysis of the Home Treatment of Pulmonary Embolism (HoT-PE) study.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary embolism (PE) and its sequelae impact healthcare systems globally. Low-risk PE patients can be managed with early discharge strategies leading to cost savings, but post-discharge costs are undetermined. PURPOSE: To define healthcare resource utilisation and overall costs during follow-up of low-risk PE. METHODS: We used an incidence-based, bottom-up approach and calculated direct and indirect costs over 3-month follow-up after low-risk PE, with data from the Home Treatment of Patients with Low-Risk Pulmonary Embolism (HoT-PE) cohort study. RESULTS: Average 3-month costs per patient having suffered low-risk PE were 7029.62 €; of this amount, 4872.93 € were associated with PE, accounting to 69.3% of total costs. Specifically, direct costs totalled 3019.33 €, and of those, 862.64 € (28.6%) were associated with PE. Anticoagulation (279.00 €), rehospitalisations (296.83 €), and ambulatory visits (194.95 €) comprised the majority of the 3-month direct costs. The remaining costs amounting to 4010.29 € were indirect costs due to loss of productivity. CONCLUSION: In a patient cohort with acute low-risk PE followed over 3 months, the majority of costs were indirect costs related to productivity loss, whereas direct, PE-specific post-discharge costs were low. Effective interventions are needed to reduce the burden of PE and associated costs, especially those related to productivity loss.

Needs assessment towards research data management at the Medical Faculty of the University of Freiburg - Data of the BE-KONFORM study.

In order to investigate employees' needs of the Medical Faculty of the University of Freiburg regarding research data management, the BE-KONFORM study was performed in a two-step approach. First, guideline-based qualitative video interviews with four researchers were performed to identify key constructs of relevance. Second, a standardized online survey was conducted from 1st to 15th of November 2020 based on e-mail invitation by the dean and a faculty newsletter. The questionnaire was provided bilingual (English and German) using a backward-forward translation method, no reminders and incentives were used to increase the response rate. The online survey was programmed in REDCap and was accessible via online link. The target population were members of the Medical Faculty (listed in the newsletter mailing list) regardless of the type of working contract signed. The final dataset contains 236 complete cases (90% German and 10% English). The study includes a randomised module asking for data publication (group A) or not (group B). 113 cases were randomized into group A and 99% of them consented to the publication of the collected research data in anonymized form (n=112). The dataset comprised questions about work-related characteristics (professional status, working experience, scientific field of work), data management-related items (definition of research data management, type of data used, type of storage used for saving data, use of electronic laboratory notebooks), experience and attitudes towards data publication in data repositories, as well as needs and preferences regarding research data management support. The produced data offers the possibility to connect with other data collected in this field in other contexts (faculties or universities).

The Frequent Stressor and Mental Health Monitoring-Paradigm: A Proposal for the Operationalization and Measurement of Resilience and the Identification of Resilience Processes in Longitudinal Observational Studies.

Resilience has been defined as the maintenance or quick recovery of mental health during and after times of adversity. How to operationalize resilience and to determine the factors and processes that lead to good long-term mental health outcomes in stressor-exposed individuals is a matter of ongoing debate and of critical importance for the advancement of the field. One of the biggest challenges for implementing an outcome-based definition of resilience in longitudinal observational study designs lies in the fact that real-life adversity is usually unpredictable and that its substantial qualitative as well as temporal variability between subjects often precludes defining circumscribed time windows of inter-individually comparable stressor exposure relative to which the maintenance or recovery of mental health can be determined. To address this pertinent issue, we propose to frequently and regularly monitor stressor exposure (E) and mental health problems (P) throughout a study's observation period [Frequent Stressor and Mental Health Monitoring (FRESHMO)-paradigm]. On this basis, a subject's deviation at any single monitoring time point from the study sample's normative E-P relationship (the regression residual) can be used to calculate that subject's current mental health reactivity to stressor exposure ("stressor reactivity," SR). The SR score takes into account the individual extent of experienced adversity and is comparable between and within subjects. Individual SR time courses across monitoring time points reflect intra-individual temporal variability in SR, where periods of under-reactivity (negative SR score) are associated with accumulation of fewer mental health problems than is normal for the sample. If FRESHMO is accompanied by regular measurement of potential resilience factors, temporal changes in resilience factors can be used to predict SR time courses. An increase in a resilience factor measurement explaining a lagged decrease in SR can then be considered to index a process of adaptation to stressor exposure that promotes a resilient outcome (an allostatic resilience process). This design principle allows resilience research to move beyond merely determining baseline predictors of resilience outcomes, which cannot inform about how individuals successfully adjust and adapt when confronted with adversity. Hence, FRESHMO plus regular resilience factor monitoring incorporates a dynamic-systems perspective into resilience research.

Absolute mortality risk assessment of COVID-19 patients: the Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study.

BACKGROUND: Already at hospital admission, clinicians require simple tools to identify hospitalized COVID-19 patients at high risk of mortality. Such tools can significantly improve resource allocation and patient management within hospitals. From the statistical point of view, extended time-to-event models are required to account for competing risks (discharge from hospital) and censoring so that active cases can also contribute to the analysis. METHODS: We used the hospital-based open Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study with 630 COVID-19 patients from Isfahan, Iran. Competing risk methods are used to develop a death risk chart based on the following variables, which can simply be measured at hospital admission: sex, age, hypertension, oxygen saturation, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. The area under the receiver operator curve was used to assess accuracy concerning discrimination between patients discharged alive and dead. RESULTS: Cause-specific hazard regression models show that these baseline variables are associated with both death, and discharge hazards. The risk chart reflects the combined results of the two cause-specific hazard regression models. The proposed risk assessment method had a very good accuracy (AUC = 0.872 [CI 95%: 0.835-0.910]). CONCLUSIONS: This study aims to improve and validate a personalized mortality risk calculator based on hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The risk assessment of patient mortality provides physicians with additional guidance for making tough decisions.

Bidimensional structure and measurement equivalence of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9: sex-sensitive assessment of depressive symptoms in three representative German cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: The Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) has been proposed as a reliable and valid screening instrument for depressive symptoms with one latent factor. However, studies explicitly testing alternative model structures found support for a two-dimensional structure reflecting a somatic and a cognitive-affective dimension. We investigated the bidimensional structure of the PHQ-9, with a somatic (sleeping problems, fatigability, appetitive problems, and psychomotor retardation) and a cognitive-affective dimension (lack of interest, depressed mood, negative feelings about self, concentration problems, and suicidal ideation), and tested for sex- and regional-differences. METHODS: We have included data from the GEnder-Sensitive Analyses of mental health trajectories and implications for prevention: A multi-cohort consortium (GESA). Privacy-preserving analyses to provide information on the overall population and cohort-specific information and analyses of variance to compare depressive, somatic and cognitive-affective symptoms between sexes and cohorts were executed in DataSHIELD. In order to determine the dimensionality and measurement invariance of the PHQ-9 we tested three models (1 factor, 2 correlated factors, and bifactor) via confirmatory analyses and performed multi-group confirmatory factor analysis. RESULTS: Differences between sex and cohorts exist for PHQ-9 and for both of its dimensions. Women reported depressive symptoms in general as well as somatic and cognitive-affective symptoms more frequently. For all tested models an acceptable to excellent fit was found, consistently indicating a better model fit for the two-factor and bifactor model. Scalar measurement invariance was established between women and men, the three cohorts, and their interaction. CONCLUSIONS: The two facets of depression should be taken into account when using PHQ-9, while data also render support to a general factor. Somatic and cognitive-affective symptoms assessed by the PHQ-9 can be considered equivalent across women and men and between different German populations from different regions.

Similarities and Differences of Mental Health in Women and Men: A Systematic Review of Findings in Three Large German Cohorts.

In Germany, large, population-based cohort studies have been implemented in order to identify risk and protective factors for maintaining health across the life span. The purpose of this systematic review is to analyse findings from three large ongoing cohorts and to identify sex-specific prevalence rates, risk and protective factors for mental health. Published studies from the Cooperative Health Research in the Region Augsburg (KORA), the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) and the Gutenberg Health Study (GHS)), representing the southern, north-eastern and middle parts of Germany, were identified through searches of the databases PubMed and Web of Science. A total of 52 articles was identified from the start of each cohort until June 2019. Articles reporting prevalence rates of mental health [N = 22], explanatory factors for mental health [N = 25], or both [N = 5] were identified. Consistent across cohorts, higher prevalence rates of internalizing disorders were found for women and more externalizing disorders for men. Risk and protective factors for mental health included social factors, lifestyle, physical health, body mass index (BMI), diabetes, genetic and biological factors. In all areas, differences and similarities were found between women and men. The most evident were the sex-specific risk profiles for depression with mostly external risk factors for men and internal risk factors for women. Gender was not assessed directly, therefore we examined whether socioeconomic and family-related factors reflecting gender roles or institutionalized gender could be used as a proxy for gender. Overall, this systematic review shows differences and similarities in prevalence rates and determinants of mental health indicators between women and men. They underline the importance of focussing on sex specific approaches in mental health research and in the development of prevention measures. Current research on mental health still lacks focus on gender aspects. Therefore, an increased focus on sex and gender in mental health research is of great importance.

Norovirus Gastroenteritis among Hospitalized Patients, Germany, 2007-2012.

We estimated numbers of hospitalizations for norovirus gastroenteritis (NGE) and associated medical costs in Germany, where norovirus testing is high because reimbursement is affected. We extracted aggregate data for patients hospitalized with a primary or secondary code from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10), NGE diagnosis during 2007-2012 from the German Federal Statistics Office. We assessed reliability of the coding system in patient records from a large academic hospital. Approximately 53,000-90,000 NGE hospitalizations occurred annually in Germany (21,000-33,000 with primary and 32,000-57,000 with secondary ICD-10-coded NGE diagnoses). Rates of hospitalization with NGE as primary diagnosis were highest in children <2 years of age; rates of hospitalization with NGE as secondary diagnosis were highest in adults >85 years of age. The average annual reimbursed direct medical cost of NGE hospitalizations was €31-43 million. Among patients with a NGE ICD-10 code, 87.6% had positive norovirus laboratory results.

Comparison of Different Hypotheses Regarding the Spread of Alzheimer's Disease Using Markov Random Fields and Multimodal Imaging.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by a cascade of pathological processes that can be assessed in vivo using different neuroimaging methods. Recent research suggests a systematic sequence of pathogenic events on a global biomarker level, but little is known about the associations and dependencies of distinct lesion patterns on a regional level. Markov random fields are a probabilistic graphical modeling approach that represent the interaction between individual random variables by an undirected graph. We propose the novel application of this approach to study the interregional associations and dependencies between multimodal imaging markers of AD pathology and to compare different hypotheses regarding the spread of the disease. We retrieved multimodal imaging data from 577 subjects enrolled in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Mean amyloid load (AV45-PET), glucose metabolism (FDG-PET), and gray matter volume (MRI) were calculated for the six principle nodes of the default mode network- a functional network of brain regions that appears to be preferentially targeted by AD. Multimodal Markov random field models were developed for three different hypotheses regarding the spread of the disease: the "intraregional evolution model", the "trans-neuronal spread" hypothesis, and the "wear-and-tear" hypothesis. The model likelihood to reflect the given data was evaluated using tenfold cross-validation with 1,000 repetitions. The most likely graph structure contained the posterior cingulate cortex as main hub region with edges to various other regions, in accordance with the "wear-and-tear" hypothesis of disease vulnerability. Probabilistic graphical models facilitate the analysis of interactions between several variables in a network model and therefore afford great potential to complement traditional multiple regression analyses in multimodal neuroimaging research.

Disease Burden of Rotavirus Gastroenteritis in Children Residing in Germany: A Retrospective, Hospital-based Surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Representative, population-based epidemiologic data for gastroenteritis caused by rotavirus (RV) are rare. RV vaccines were first licensed in Europe in 2006 and recommended in 5 western federal states in 2008 or thereafter. This study establishes a baseline for assessing the impact of vaccination and delineates the RV disease burden in Germany today. METHODS: Nationwide data obtained from hospitals for children 0 to 10 years of age and transferred to the Federal Statistical Office were analyzed retrospectively. Acute gastroenteritis cases because of RV were identified by the International Classification of Diseases code (ICD-10) combined with the referring diagnosis-related group code. Coding quality was validated by random sampling the patient records (n=1003). Crude and age-standardized rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated. The rate ratios of seasonal effects and recommended immunization adjusted for year, federal state and age were estimated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2010, 5,843,730 children were hospitalized; 520,606 cases were hospitalized because of acute gastroenteritis. RV caused 152,636 of these cases or an age-standardized rate of 302 hospitalizations per 100,000 person-years. Rates were slightly higher in boys than girls, decreased with age, and differed by federal state, year and season. Rate ratios decreased in those western federal states that recommended immunization and were inversely associated with vaccine doses sold. CONCLUSIONS: With an average of 25,440 children hospitalized yearly, RV infection has a great impact on the German healthcare system. Our findings indicate that RV immunization will lead to a decline in in-patient treatment and associated costs.

Psychosocial Care Needs of Melanoma Survivors: Are They Being Met?

Patients who have survived malignant melanoma for more than five years may lack the opportunity to talk about their burden. As a consequence their psychosocial care needs remain undetected and available supportive interventions may not be utilised. Therefore, the psychosocial burden of this patient group needs to be assessed using specific screening instruments. The aim of this study was to investigate the psychosocial burden of long-term melanoma survivors, their psychosocial care needs and the determinants of these needs. We wanted to find out if the use of professional support corresponds to the care needs defined by experts. Using the cancer registry of Rhineland-Palatinate, melanoma patients diagnosed at least 5 years before the survey were contacted by physicians. N = 689 former patients completed the Hornheide Questionnaire (short form HQ-S) to identify psychosocial support need (scale cut off ≥ 16 or item-based cut-off score) and the potential psychosocial determinants of these needs. Additionally, they were asked about their utilisation of the professional support system. More than one third (36%) of them was in need for professional psychosocial support. The highest burden scores concerned worry about tumour progression. Younger age (< 50), higher general fatigue, higher symptom burden, lower general health, negative social interactions and unfulfilled information needs were significant predictors of the need for psychosocial intervention. Related to the percentage of survivors identified as 'in need', the professional support system was underused. Further studies should investigate whether using the HQ-S to routinely identify burdened melanoma patients could lead to better fulfilment of their intervention needs, ultimately enhancing health-related quality of life.

Burden of caregivers of patients with bipolar affective disorders.

Thirty-two problem-oriented interviews with caregivers of patients with bipolar affective disorders were analyzed using content analysis. The 722 statements of caregivers about their experiences of subjective burden because of the illness of their family members were summarized in 49 global statements and correlated by factor analysis to 10 types of burden. In particular, patients' noncompliance as well as the helplessness of the caregivers in interaction with the (changing) depressive and manic symptoms of the ill family members emerged as serious burdens on the caregivers. Whereas female caregivers suffered more from problems regarding quality of relationship with the patient, male caregivers experienced more constraints on their own autonomy, uncertainty concerning their judgment of patients' capacity, and uncertainty because of the changing symptoms of illness. The findings of this study highlight that an appreciation of caregivers' own consternation and information about how best to handle the (uncooperative) behavior of the patient should be taken into account in psychoeducational groups as well as in the daily work routine of professionals.

Assessment of survival prediction models based on microarray data.

MOTIVATION: In the process of developing risk prediction models, various steps of model building and model selection are involved. If this process is not adequately controlled, overfitting may result in serious overoptimism leading to potentially erroneous conclusions. METHODS: For right censored time-to-event data, we estimate the prediction error for assessing the performance of a risk prediction model (Gerds and Schumacher, 2006; Graf et al., 1999). Furthermore, resampling methods are used to detect overfitting and resulting overoptimism and to adjust the estimates of prediction error (Gerds and Schumacher, 2007). RESULTS: We show how and to what extent the methodology can be used in situations characterized by a large number of potential predictor variables where overfitting may be expected to be overwhelming. This is illustrated by estimating the prediction error of some recently proposed techniques for fitting a multivariate Cox regression model applied to the data of a prognostic study in patients with diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). AVAILABILITY: Resampling-based estimation of prediction error curves is implemented in an R package called pec available from the authors.