Disparity in quantitative risk assessment: a review of input distributions.

Monte Carlo simulations are commonplace in quantitative risk assessments (QRAs). Designed to propagate the variability and uncertainty associated with each individual exposure input parameter in a quantitative risk assessment, Monte Carlo methods statistically combine the individual parameter distributions to yield a single, overall distribution. Critical to such an assessment is the representativeness of each individual input distribution. The authors performed a literature review to collect and compare the distributions used in published QRAs for the parameters of body weight, food consumption, soil ingestion rates, breathing rates, and fluid intake. To provide a basis for comparison, all estimated exposure parameter distributions were evaluated with respect to four properties: consistency, accuracy, precision, and specificity. The results varied depending on the exposure parameter. Even where extensive, well-collected data exist, investigators used a variety of different distributional shapes to approximate these data. Where such data do not exist, investigators have collected their own data, often leading to substantial disparity in parameter estimates and subsequent choice of distribution. The present findings indicate that more attention must be paid to the data underlying these distributional choices. More emphasis should be placed on sensitivity analyses, quantifying the impact of assumptions, and on discussion of sources of variation as part of the presentation of any risk assessment results. If such practices and disclosures are followed, it is believed that Monte Carlo simulations can greatly enhance the accuracy and appropriateness of specific risk assessments. Without such disclosures, researchers will be increasing the size of the risk assessment "black box," a concern already raised by many critics of more traditional risk assessments.

Assessment of bronchial effects following topical administration of butylamino-phenoxy-propanol-acetate, an oculoselective beta-adrenoceptor blocker in asthmatic subjects.

1. Butylamino-phenoxy-propanol-acetate (BPPA) is a new topical oculoselective beta-adrenoceptor blocker for the reduction of intraocular pressure (IOP) in man. Its potency on the airways of normal subjects was identical with that of placebo. A study was carried out to determine the potential of BPPA to cause bronchoconstriction in mild asthmatics (FEV1 greater than or equal to 60% predicted) with normal IOP. 2. Twelve nonsmoking outpatients who bronchoconstricted to 0.25 or 0.50% of timolol eye drops (fall in FEV1 23.33 +/- 1.20% (mean +/- s.e. mean), range 16-30) were investigated in this double-masked, randomized, 3-period, crossover study. On three different occasions six incremental concentrations of BPPA (range: 0.1-2%; maximum cumulative concentration 4%), timolol (0.1-1%; 2%), and placebo were administered bilaterally until bronchoconstriction (decrease in FEV1 greater than or equal to 20% and in specific airway conductance (sGaw) greater than or equal to 35% simultaneously) or the maximum cumulative concentration was reached. 3. Airway response was measured as change in FEV1 and sGaw and dose-response curves to timolol, BPPA and placebo were performed. IOP was measured 3 h after the highest concentration of each study day. 4. Timolol caused dose-dependent falls in FEV1 and sGaw as well as clinical symptoms of respiratory distress in all subjects. The median cumulative concentrations of timolol required to decrease FEV1 by 20% and sGaw by 35% were 0.98% and 1.53%. Neither placebo (P greater than 0.05) nor BPPA (P greater than 0.05) caused a significant change in sGaw. A fall in FEV1 by 20% not accompanied by a simultaneous fall in sGaw by 35% was found in four subjects following BPPA and in five subjects following placebo.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Assessment of systemic effects of different ophthalmic beta-blockers in healthy volunteers.

Systemic beta-blockade after single doses of ophthalmic beta-blockers (one drop in each eye) was investigated in healthy volunteers in two randomized, double-blind, crossover, placebo-controlled studies. beta-Blockade was evaluated by displacement of the bronchodilator (specific airway conductance), positive chronotropic (heart rate), and tremorogenic (finger tremor amplitude) dose-response curve for inhaled isoproterenol. In study 1, 0.5% betaxolol, 0.6% metipranolol, and 0.5% timolol were tested in 16 subjects. Compared with placebo, all beta-blockers resulted in a significant systemic beta-blockade (p greater than 0.05); the increasing order of potency was betaxolol, metipranolol, and timolol. In study 2, 2% butylamino-phenoxy-propanol-acetate (BPPA; a noncardioselective but topically oculoselective drug) and 1% timolol were investigated in 12 subjects. Placebo and BPPA showed no differences (p greater than 0.05), whereas timolol resulted in a significant beta-blockade (p less than 0.05). Topical oculoselectivity is an important aspect of drug safety of beta-blocking eyedrops. Measure of tremor is appropriate to evaluate beta 2-blockade.