Breast cancer incidence and survival in Scotland by socio-economic deprivation and tumour subtype.

BACKGROUND: Women from socio-economically deprived areas are less likely to develop and then to survive breast cancer (BC). Whether associations between deprivation and BC incidence and survival differ by tumour molecular subtypes and mode of detection in Scotland are unknown. METHODS: Data consisted of 62,378 women diagnosed with invasive BC between 2000 and 2016 in Scotland. Incidence rates and time trends were calculated for oestrogen receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER-) tumours and stratified by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles and screening status. SIMD is an area-based measure derived across seven domains: income, employment, education, health, access to services, crime and housing. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR [95% confidence intervals]) for BC death by immunohistochemical surrogates of molecular subtypes for the most versus the least deprived quintile. We adjusted for mode of detection and other confounders. RESULTS: In Scotland, screen-detected ER+tumour incidence increased over time, particularly in the least deprived quintile [Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) = 2.9% with 95% CI from 1.2 to 4.7]. No marked differences were observed for non-screen-detected ER+tumours or ER- tumours by deprivation. BC mortality was higher in the most compared to the least deprived quintile irrespective of ER status (aHR = 1.29 [1.18, 1.41] for ER+ and 1.27 [1.09, 1.47] for ER- tumours). However, deprivation was associated with significantly higher mortality for luminal A and HER2-enriched tumours (aHR = 1.46 [1.13, 1.88] and 2.10 [1.23, 3.59] respectively) but weaker associations for luminal B and TNBC tumours that were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Deprivation is associated with differential BC incidence trends for screen-detected ER+tumours and with higher mortality for select tumour subtypes. Future efforts should evaluate factors that might be associated with reduced survival in deprived populations and monitor progress stratified by tumour subtypes and mode of detection.

Engagement in a National Naloxone Programme among people who inject drugs.

BACKGROUND: Availability of the opioid antagonist naloxone for lay administration has grown substantially since first proposed in 1996. Gaps remain, though, in our understanding of how people who inject drugs (PWID) engage with naloxone programmes over time. AIMS: This paper aimed to address three specific evidence gaps: the extent of naloxone supply to PWID; supply-source (community or prisons); and the carriage of naloxone among PWID. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Analysis of Scotland's Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative (NESI) responses in 2011-2012 and 2013-2014 was undertaken with a specific focus on the extent of Scotland's naloxone supply to PWID; including by source (community or prisons); and on the carriage of naloxone. Differences in responses between the two surveys were measured using Chi-square tests together with 95% confidence intervals for rate-differences over time. RESULTS: The proportion of NESI participants who reported that they had been prescribed naloxone within the last year increased significantly from 8% (175/2146; 95% CI: 7-9%) in 2011-2012 to 32% (745/2331; 95% CI: 30% to 34%) in 2013-2014. In contrast, the proportion of NESI participants who carried naloxone with them on the day they were interviewed decreased significantly from 16% (27/169; 95% CI: 10% to 22%) in 2011-2012 to 5% (39/741; 95% CI: 4% to 7%) in 2013-2014. CONCLUSIONS: The supply of naloxone to PWID has increased significantly since the introduction of a National Naloxone Programme in Scotland in January 2011. In contrast, naloxone carriage is low and decreased between the two NESI surveys; this area requires further investigation.

Effectiveness of Scotland's National Naloxone Programme for reducing opioid-related deaths: a before (2006-10) versus after (2011-13) comparison.

AIMS: To assess the effectiveness for Scotland's National Naloxone Programme (NNP) by comparison between 2006-10 (before) and 2011-13 (after NNP started in January 2011) and to assess cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: This was a pre-post evaluation of a national policy. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by prescription costs against life-years gained per opioid-related death (ORD) averted. SETTING: Scotland, in community settings and all prisons. INTERVENTION: Brief training and standardized naloxone supply became available to individuals at risk of opioid overdose. MEASUREMENTS: ORDs as identified by National Records of Scotland. Look-back determined the proportion of ORDs who, in the 4 weeks before ORD, had been (i) released from prison (primary outcome) and (ii) released from prison or discharged from hospital (secondary). We report 95% confidence intervals for effectiveness in reducing the primary (and secondary) outcome in 2011-13 versus 2006-10. Prescription costs were assessed against 1 or 10 life-years gained per averted ORD. FINDINGS: In 2006-10, 9.8% of ORDs (193 of 1970) were in people released from prison within 4 weeks of death, whereas only 6.3% of ORDs in 2011-13 followed prison release (76 of 1212, P < 0.001; this represented a difference of 3.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.6-5.4%)]. This reduction in the proportion of prison release ORDs translates into 42 fewer prison release ORDs (95% CI = 19-65) during 2011-13, when 12,000 naloxone kits were issued at current prescription cost of £225,000. Scotland's secondary outcome reduced from 19.0 to 14.9%, a difference of 4.1% (95% CI = 1.4-6.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Scotland's National Naloxone Programme, which started in 2011, was associated with a 36% reduction in the proportion of opioid-related deaths that occurred in the 4 weeks following release from prison.

Review of models used to predict the future numbers of individuals with severe hepatitis C disease: therapeutic and cost implications.

Hepatitis C represents a major public health issue with approximately 170 million individuals infected with the virus worldwide. The greatest burden from hepatitis C virus infection will come from the long-term complications of this chronic liver disease, namely decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. If those that are responsible for the management of hepatitis C virus-infected individuals, particularly those with severe disease, are to do so effectively and efficiently, future resources need to be planned for. Accordingly, it is important that models to forecast the extent, type and cost of hepatitis C virus-related disease are developed. In this article, the authors review published forecasting studies to examine the different methods adopted and results produced.

Modeling the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C among injection drug users in Scotland.

Quantitative estimates of the current and future burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease are required to plan a public health response to the HCV epidemic with regard to both prevention and treatment. A forward projection model was used to estimate the numbers of both current and former injecting drug users (IDUs) who acquired HCV and progressed to moderate and severe disease in Glasgow and Scotland during 1960-2030. The model was designed to synthesize information on the incidence and cessation of injecting drug use, the incidence of HCV infection among IDUs, the rate of HCV disease progression, and the annual number of IDUs developing HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis. During 2003, a total of 17,400 and 42,900 HCV-infected IDUs were estimated in Glasgow and Scotland, respectively; this compares with approximately 5,000 and 13,900 diagnosed, respectively, and 13,200 and 32,200 with chronic HCV, respectively. The number of IDUs developing HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis in Scotland is estimated to double between 2000 and 2020. As many as 16% and 27% of former IDUs in 2005 aged 30-39 and 40-49 years, respectively, were estimated to have moderate disease, which highlights the potential benefit of targeting HCV testing at former IDUs who belong to these age groups. In conclusion, the identification and treatment of a larger proportion of former IDUs with HCV disease and education about the importance of minimal alcohol consumption are needed to help achieve a greater impact on the future morbidity and mortality of this disease.

Attributable testing for abnormal prion protein, database linkage, and blood-borne vCJD risks.

CONTEXT: National prospective collection of tonsillar tissue to be tested anonymously for abnormal lymphoreticular accumulation of prion protein (PrP) was approved to begin in the UK in 2004. The UK is not, however, testing autopsy specimens attributably for abnormal PrP (PrP(SC)) so that recipients at risk after a blood transfusion from, or exposed to surgical instruments from, a deceased carrier of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) can be followed up to quantify transmission risks. In Switzerland, surveillance for subclinical vCJD includes unconsented testing in autopsies: consented testing of tonsillar tissue is potentially attributable to interrupt human-to-human vCJD transmission or treat it. STARTING POINT: The UK announced its first case of probable blood-borne vCJD transmission in December, 2003, and first detected a case of probable blood-borne subclinical vCJD in July, 2004. To reduce the possible risk of onward transmission to other people, UK patients who had received vCJD-implicated plasma products are being contacted. They, and their general practitioner, are asked to inform anyone giving them medical, surgical, or dental treatment, and the patients must refrain from donating blood, tissues, or organs. WHERE NEXT? Prudent additional surveillance options for human PrP(SC)--particularly at autopsy or to sanction the release of quarantined operation sets pending effective decontamination--can be costed by reference to results for cattle and sheep. Some ethical or legal impediments to the UK's potentially-attributable testing for PrP(SC) may yet be rued.