Projecting the 10-year costs of care and mortality burden of depression until 2032: a Markov modelling study developed from real-world data.

Background: Based on real-world data, we developed a 10-year prediction model to estimate the burden among patients with depression from the public healthcare system payer's perspective to inform early resource planning in Hong Kong. Methods: We developed a Markov cohort model with yearly cycles specifically capturing the pathway of treatment-resistant depression (TRD) and comorbidity development along the disease course. Projected from 2023 to 2032, primary outcomes included costs of all-cause and psychiatric care, and secondary outcomes were all-cause deaths, years of life lived, and quality-adjusted life-years. Using the territory-wide electronic medical records, we identified 25,190 patients aged ≥10 years with newly diagnosed depression from 2014 to 2016 with follow-up until 2020 to observe the real-world time-to-event pattern, based on which costs and time-varying transition inputs were derived using negative binomial modelling and parametric survival analysis. We applied the model as both closed cohort, which studied a fixed cohort of incident patients in 2023, and open cohort, which introduced incident patients by year from 2014 to 2032. Utilities and annual new patients were from published sources. Findings: With 9217 new patients in 2023, our closed cohort model projected the 10-year cumulative costs of all-cause and psychiatric care to reach US$309.0 million and US$58.3 million, respectively, with 899 deaths (case fatality rate: 9.8%) by 2032. In our open cohort model, 55,849-57,896 active prevalent cases would cost more than US$322.3 million and US$60.7 million, respectively, with more than 943 deaths annually from 2023 to 2032. Fewer than 20% of cases would live with TRD or comorbidities but contribute 31-54% of the costs. The greatest collective burden would occur in women aged above 40, but men aged above 65 and below 25 with medical history would have the highest costs per patient-year. The key cost drivers were relevant to the early disease stages. Interpretation: A limited proportion of patients would develop TRD and comorbidities but contribute to a high proportion of costs, which necessitates appropriate attention and resource allocation. Our projection also demonstrates the application of real-world data to model long-term costs and mortality, which aid policymakers anticipate foreseeable burden and undertake budget planning to prepare for the care need in alternative scenarios. Funding: Research Impact Fund from the University Grants Committee, Research Grants Council with matching fund from the Hong Kong Association of Pharmaceutical Industry (R7007-22).

Contemporary Public Health Finance: Varied Definitions, Patterns, and Implications.

The financing of public health systems and services relies on a complex and fragmented web of partners and funding priorities. Both underfunding and "dys-funding" contribute to preventable mortality, increases in disease frequency and severity, and hindered social and economic growth. These issues were both illuminated and magnified by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated responses. Further complicating issues is the difficulty in constructing adequate estimates of current public health resources and necessary resources. Each of these challenges inhibits the delivery of necessary services, leads to inequitable access and resourcing, contributes to resource volatility, and presents other deleterious outcomes. However, actions may be taken to defragment complex funding paradigms toward more flexible spending, to modernize and standardize data systems, and to assure equitable and sustainable public health investments.

Patient-centered care and geriatric knowledge translation among healthcare providers in Vietnam: translation and validation of the patient-centered care measure.

BACKGROUND: People are living longer, and the majority of aging people reside in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, inappropriate healthcare contributes to health disparities between populations of aging people and leads to care dependency and social isolation. Tools to assess and evaluate the effectiveness of quality improvement interventions for geriatric care in LMICs are limited. The aim of this study was to provide a validated and culturally relevant instrument to assess patient-centered care in Vietnam, where the population of aging people is growing rapidly. METHODS: The Patient-Centered Care (PCC) measure was translated from English to Vietnamese using forward-backward method. The PCC measure grouped activities into sub-domains of holistic, collaborative, and responsive care. A bilingual expert panel rated the cross-cultural relevance and translation equivalence of the instrument. We calculated Content Validity Indexing (CVI) scores at both the item (I-CVI) and scale (S-CVI/Ave) levels to evaluate the relevance of the Vietnamese PCC (VPCC) measure to geriatric care in the Vietnamese context. We piloted the translated instrument VPCC measure with 112 healthcare providers in Hanoi, Vietnam. Multiple logistic regression models were specified to test the a priori null hypothesis that geriatric knowledge is not different among healthcare providers with perception of high implementation compared with low implementation of PCC measures. RESULTS: On the item level, all 20 questions had excellent validity ratings. The VPCC had excellent content validity (S-CVI/Ave of 0.96) and translation equivalence (TS- CVI/Ave of 0.94). In the pilot study, the highest-rated PCC elements were the holistic provision of information and collaborative care, while the lowest-rated elements were the holistic attendance to patients' needs and responsive care. Attention to the psychosocial needs of aging people and poor coordination of care within and beyond the health system were the lowest-rated PCC activities. After controlling for healthcare provider characteristics, the odds of the perception of high implementation of collaborative care were increased by 21% for each increase in geriatric knowledge score. We fail to reject the null hypotheses for holistic care, responsive care and PCC. CONCLUSION: The VPCC is a validated instrument that may be utilized to systemically evaluate the practice of patient-centered geriatric care in Vietnam.

Socioeconomic disparities in healthcare utilization under universal health coverage: evidence from Dubai household health survey.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, Dubai implemented the Insurance System of Advancing Health in Dubai (ISAHD) law which required mandatory health insurance for all residents of Dubai effective in 2016. This study compares the effect of the ISAHD on the utilization and out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures for low and high socio-economic status sub-groups. METHODS: The study used the 2014 and 2018 Dubai Household Health Survey (DHHS) a representative survey of Dubai stratified as: 1) Nationals; 2) Non-nationals in households; 3) Non-nationals in collective housing; and 4) Non-nationals in labor camps. The probability that each household would have expenditures was calculated, then multiplied by a weighted estimate of the average total OOP expenditure. RESULTS: Overall Dubai's health spending rose from 12.8 billion AED (3.4 billion US $) in 2014 to 16.8 billion AED (4.6 billion US $) in 2017. Concurrently, the OOP share in total health spending in Dubai fell from 25% in 2014 to 13% in 2017. From 2014 to 2018, there were increases in the utilization of inpatient, outpatient and discretionary services for all groups except non-nationals living in camps. In 2018, nationals spent a total of 1064.65 AED, non-nationals in households spent 675.01 AED, collective households spent 82.35 AED, and labor camps spent 100.32 AED out-of-pocket per capita for healthcare expenditures. During and after the implementation of ISAHD, there was a substantial growth in the OOP expenditure per capita for nationals and non-nationals in households due to increased utilization. OOP spending did not rise for the lower-income non-National households. CONCLUSION: Dubai has been successful in reducing the household share of OOP expenditures by shifting the financial burden to government and employers. Emiratis and expatriate households increased their health service utilization after ISAHD but blue-collar workers did not. Remaining non-financial barriers to care for Dubai's blue-collar workers must be identified and addressed.

Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries.

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), economic downturns can lead to increased child mortality by affecting dietary, environmental, and care-seeking factors. This study estimates the potential loss of life in children under five years old attributable to economic downturns in 2020. We used a multi-level, mixed effects model to estimate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) specific to each of 129 LMICs. Public data were retrieved from the World Bank World Development Indicators database and the United Nations World Populations Prospects estimates for the years 1990-2020. Country-specific regression coefficients on the relationship between child mortality and GDP were used to estimate the impact on U5MR of reductions in GDP per capita of 5%, 10%, and 15%. A 5% reduction in GDP per capita in 2020 was estimated to cause an additional 282,996 deaths in children under 5 in 2020. At 10% and 15%, recessions led to higher losses of under-5 lives, increasing to 585,802 and 911,026 additional deaths, respectively. Nearly half of all the potential under-5 lives lost in LMICs were estimated to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because most of these deaths will likely be due to nutrition and environmental factors amenable to intervention, countries should ensure continued investments in food supplementation, growth monitoring, and comprehensive primary health care to mitigate potential burdens.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a large-scale crèche intervention to prevent child drowning in rural Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Drowning is the leading cause of death among children 12-59 months old in rural Bangladesh. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a large-scale crèche (daycare) intervention in preventing child drowning. METHODS: The cost of the crèches intervention was evaluated using an ingredients-based approach and monthly expenditure data collected prospectively throughout the study period from two agencies implementing the intervention in different study areas. The estimate of the effectiveness of the crèches intervention was based on a previous study. The study evaluated the cost-effectiveness from both a program and societal perspective. RESULTS: From the program perspective the annual operating cost of a crèche was $416.35 (95% CI: $221 to $576), the annual cost per child was $16 (95% CI: $8 to $23), and the incremental-cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per life saved with the crèches was $17,008 (95% CI: $8817 to $24,619). From the societal perspective (including parents time valued) the ICER per life saved was - $166,833 (95% CI: - $197,421 to - $141,341)-meaning crèches generated net economic benefits per child enrolled. Based on the ICER per disability-adjusted-life years averted from the societal perspective (excluding parents time), $1978, the crèche intervention was cost-effective even when the societal economic benefits were ignored. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the evidence, the crèche intervention has great potential for generating net societal economic gains by reducing child drowning at a program cost that is reasonable.

County health outcomes linkage to county spending on social services, building infrastructure, and law and order.

Will counties that reallocate money from law enforcement to social services improve subsequent markers of population wellbeing? In this study, we measure the association between county government spending across multiple sectors and Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) in the U.S. using data from the U.S. Census Bureau. We constructed a Structural Equation Model to determine whether social expenditure, building infrastructure, and spending on law and order were positively or negatively associated with LEB three-years after initial spending. The analysis compared data between 2002-05 and 2007-10 and was stratified for urban and rural counties. In rural counties, a one-standard-deviation increase in social spending increased subsequent LEB by 0.58 (SE 0.16) and 0.36 (SE 0.16) years in 2005 and 2010, respectively. In urban counties, a one-standard-deviation increase in building infrastructure spending increased subsequent LEB by 1.14 (SE 0.51) and 1.05 (SE 0.49) years in 2005 and 2010, respectively. In 2002, a one-standard-deviation increase in law and order spending significantly decreased subsequent life expectancy, 2.2 (SE 1.27) and 0.46 (SE 0.13) years in urban and rural counties, respectively. Similarly, investments in building infrastructure for urban counties and social services for rural counties were associated with subsequently higher life expectancy three years later after initial investments.

Does social capital increase healthcare financing's projection? Results from the rural household of Uttar Pradesh, India.

In the absence of adequate social security, out-of-pocket health expenditure compels households to adopt coping strategies, such as utilizing savings, selling assets, or acquiring external financial support (EFS) by borrowing with interest. Households' probability of acquiring EFS and its amount (intensity) depends on its social capital - the nature of social relationships and resources embedded within social networks. This study examines the effect of social capital on the probability and intensity of EFS during health events in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India. The analysis used data from a cross-sectional survey of 6218 households, reporting 3066 healthcare events, from two districts of UP. Household heads (HH) reported demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related information, including EFS, for each household member. Self-reported data from Shortened and Adapted Social Capital Assessment Tool in India (SASCAT-I) was used to generate four unique social capital measures (organizational participation, social support, trust, and social cohesion) at HH and community-level, using multilevel confirmatory factor analysis. After descriptive analysis, two-part mixed-effect models were implemented to estimate the probability and intensity of EFS as a function of social capital measures, where multilevel mixed-effects probit regression was used as the first-part and multilevel mixed-effects linear model with log link and gamma distribution as the second-part. Controlling for all covariates, the probability of acquiring EFS significantly increased (p = 0.04) with higher social support of the HH and significantly decreased (p = 0.02) with higher community social cohesion. Conditional to receiving any EFS, higher social trust of the HH resulted in higher intensity of EFS (p = 0.09). Social support and trust may enable households to cope up with financial stress. However, controlling for the other dimensions of social capital, high cohesiveness with the community might restrict a household's access to external resources demonstrating the unintended effect of social capital exerted by formal or informal social control.

The Role of Public Health Expenditures in COVID-19 control: Evidence from Local Governments in England.

For over 150 years the local health departments of England have been critical in controlling 19th and 20th century infectious epidemics. However, recent administrative changes have hollowed out their flexibility to serve communities. We use administrative data on past budgetary allocations per capita to public health departments at upper tier local areas (UTLAs) of England to examine whether public health funding levels were correlated with more rapid control of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic between March and July of 2020. The dependent variable was the number of days between a UTLA's 10th case of COVID-19 and the day when new cases per 100,000 peaked and began to decline. Our models controlled for regional socio-economic factors. We found no correlation between local public health expenditure and the speed of control of COVID-19. However, overall public expenditure allocated to improve local areas helped reduce time to reach peak. Contrary to expectation, more dense areas such as London experienced shorter duration. Higher income areas had more rapid success in accelerating the time of the first peak in the first wave of their local COVID-19 incidence. We contribute to understanding the impact of how public expenditure and socio-economic factors affect an epidemic.

Impact of Neighborhood Social and Environmental Resources on Medicaid Spending.

INTRODUCTION: In an era of COVID-19, Black Lives Matter, and unsustainable healthcare spending, efforts to address the root causes of health are urgently needed. Research linking medical spending to variation in neighborhood resources is critical to building the case for increased funding for social conditions. However, few studies link neighborhood factors to medical spending. This study assesses the relationship between neighborhood social and environmental resources and medical spending across the spending distribution. METHODS: Individual-level health outcomes were drawn from a sample of Medicaid enrollees living in Baltimore, Maryland during 2016. A multidimensional index of neighborhood social and environmental resources was created and stratified by tertile (high, medium, and low). Differences were examined in individual-level medical spending associated with living in high-, medium-, or low-resource neighborhoods in unadjusted and adjusted 2-part models and quantile regression models. Analyses were conducted in 2019. RESULTS: Enrollees who live in neighborhoods with low social and environmental resources incur significantly higher spending at the mean and across the distribution of medical spending even after controlling for age, race, sex, and morbidity than those who live in neighborhoods with high social and environmental resources. On average, this spending difference between individuals in low- and those in high-resource neighborhoods is estimated to be $523.60 per person per year. CONCLUSIONS: Living in neighborhoods with low (versus those with high) resources is associated with higher individual-level medical spending across the distribution of medical spending. Findings suggest potential benefits from efforts to address the social and environmental context of neighborhoods in addition to the traditional orientation to addressing individual behavior and risk.

US Public Health Neglected: Flat Or Declining Spending Left States Ill Equipped To Respond To COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted concern about the integrity of the US public health infrastructure. Federal, state, and local governments spend $93 billion annually on public health in the US, but most of this spending is at the state level. Thus, shoring up gaps in public health preparedness and response requires an understanding of state spending. We present state spending trends in eight categories of public health activity from 2008 through 2018. We obtained data from the Census Bureau for all states except California and coded the data by public health category. Although overall national health expenditures grew by 4.3 percent in this period, state governmental public health spending saw no statistically significant growth between 2008 and 2018 except in injury prevention. Moreover, state spending levels on public health were not restored after cuts experienced during the Great Recession, leaving states ill equipped to respond to COVID-19 and other emerging health needs.

Systematic assessment of South Korea's capabilities to control COVID-19.

South Korea's COVID-19 control strategy has been widely emulated. Korea's ability to rapidly achieve disease control in early 2020 without a "Great Lockdown" despite its proximity to China and high population density make its achievement particularly intriguing. This paper helps explain Korea's pre-existing capabilities which enabled the rapid and effective implementation of its COVID-19 control strategies. A systematic assessment across multiple domains demonstrates that South Korea's advantages in controlling its epidemic are owed tremendously to legal and organizational reforms enacted after the MERS outbreak in 2015. Successful implementation of the Korean strategy required more than just a set of actions, measures and policies. It relied on a pre-existing legal framework, financing arrangements, governance and a workforce experienced in outbreak management.

Aligning US Spending Priorities Using the Health Impact Pyramid Lens.

Thomas Frieden's "health impact pyramid" presents a hierarchy in which the wide base of the pyramid of socioeconomic factors at a population level has more impact on the health of the public than do individually focused interventions at the pyramid's top.From this pyramid perspective, the US spending priorities are misaligned, as expenses targeted at public health and socioeconomic factors are far outstripped by spending on individual health care services at the top of the pyramid. The nation's ongoing debate on health care reform continues to focus on access to individual health care services, despite evidence demonstrating the health impacts of population-level efforts at the base of the pyramid and the synergistic health impacts of health and social service collaboration.We examine the need for improved systems alignment through the lens of the health impact pyramid. We catalog the types of misalignments and their social, political, and systems genesis. We identify promising opportunities to realign US health spending toward the socioeconomic factor base of the health impact pyramid and emphasize the need to integrate and align public health, social services, and medical care in the United States.

Inaccuracy of Official Estimates of Public Health Spending in the United States, 2000-2018.

Objectives. To examine the accuracy of official estimates of governmental health spending in the United States.Methods. We coded approximately 2.7 million administrative spending records from 2000 to 2018 for public health activities according to a standardized Uniform Chart of Accounts produced by the Public Health Activities and Services Tracking project. The official US Public Health Activity estimate was recalculated using updated estimates from the data coding.Results. Although official estimates place governmental public health spending at more than $93 billion (2.5% of total spending on health), detailed examination of spending records from state governments shows that official estimates include substantial spending on individual health care services (e.g., behavioral health) and that actual spending on population-level public health activities is more likely between $35 billion and $64 billion (approximately 1.5% of total health spending).Conclusions. Clarity in understanding of public health spending is critical for characterizing its value proposition. Official estimates are likely tens of billions of dollars greater than actual spending.Public Health Implications. Precise and clear spending estimates are material for policymakers to accurately understand the effect of their resource allocation decisions.

The State of Rural Public Health: Enduring Needs in a New Decade.

Public health in the rural United States is a complex and underfunded enterprise. While urban-rural disparities have been a focus for researchers and policymakers alike for decades, inequalities continue to grow. Life expectancy at birth is now 1 to 2 years greater between wealthier urban and rural counties, and is as much as 5 years, on average, between wealthy and poor counties.This article explores the growth in these disparities over the past 40 years, with roots in structural, economic, and social spending differentials that have emerged or persisted over the same time period. Importantly, a focus on place-based disparities recognizes that the rural United States is not a monolith, with important geographic and cultural differences present regionally. We also focus on the challenges the rural governmental public health enterprise faces, the so-called "double disparity" of worse health outcomes and behaviors alongside modest investment in health departments compared with their nonrural peers.Finally, we offer 5 population-based "prescriptions" for supporting rural public health in the United States. These relate to greater investment and supporting rural advocacy to better address the needs of the rural United States in this new decade.

Willingness-to-pay for long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets: a discrete choice experiment with real payment in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Expanding access to long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) is difficult if one is limited to government and donor financial resources. Private commercial markets could play a larger role in the continuous distribution of LLINs by offering differentiated LLINs to middle-class Ghanaians. This population segment has disposable income and may be willing to pay for LLINs that meet their preferences. Measuring the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for LLINs with specialty features that appeal to middle-class Ghanaians could help malaria control programmes understand what is the potential for private markets to work alongside fully subsidized LLIN distribution channels to assist in spreading this commodity. METHODS: This study conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) including a real payment choice among a representative sample of 628 middle-income households living in Ashanti, Greater Accra, and Western regions in Ghana. The DCE presented 18 paired combinations of LLIN features and various prices. Respondents indicated which LLIN of each pair they preferred and whether they would purchase it. To validate stated willingness-to-pay, each participant was given a cash payment of $14.30 (GHS 65) that they could either keep or immediately spend on one of the LLIN products. RESULTS: The households' average probability of purchasing a LLIN with specialty features was 43.8% (S.D. 0.07) and WTP was $7.48 (GHS34.0). The preferred LLIN features were conical or rectangular one-point-hang shape, queen size, and zipper entry. The average WTP for a LLIN with all the preferred features was $18.48 (GHS 84). In a scenario with the private LLIN market, the public sector outlay could be reduced by 39% and private LLIN sales would generate $8.1 million ($311 per every 100 households) in revenue in the study area that would support jobs for Ghanaian retailers, distributors, and importers of LLINs. CONCLUSION: Results support a scenario in which commercial markets for LLINs could play a significant role in improving access to LLINs for middle-income Ghanaians. Manufacturers interested could offer LLIN designs with features that are most highly valued among middle-income households in Ghana and maintain a retail price that could yield sufficient economic returns.

Child Housing Assessment for a Safe Environment (CHASE): a new tool for injury prevention inside the home.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a tool to assess the safety of the home environment that could produce valid measures of a child's risk of suffering an injury. METHODS: Tool development: A four-step process was used to develop the CHASE (Child Housing Assessment for a Safe Environment) tool, including (1) a literature scan, (2) reviewing of existing housing inspection tools, (3) key informants interviews, and (4) reviewing the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System to determine the leading housing elements associated with paediatric injury. Retrospective case-control study to validate the CHASE tool: Recruitment included case (injured) and control (sick but not injured) children and their families from a large, urban paediatric emergency department in Baltimore, Maryland in 2012. Trained inspectors applied both the well-known Home Quality Standard (HQS) and the CHASE tool to each enrollee's home, and we compared scores on individual and summary items between cases and controls. RESULTS: Twenty-five items organised around 12 subdomains were included on the CHASE tool. 71 matched pairs were enrolled and included in the analytic sample. Comparisons between cases and controls revealed statistically significant differences in scores on individual items of the CHASE tool as well as on the overall score, with the cases systematically having worse scores. No differences were found between groups on the HQS measures. CONCLUSION: Programmes conducting housing inspections in the homes of children should consider including the CHASE tool as part of their inspection measures. Future study of the CHASE inspection tool in a prospective trial would help assess its efficacy in preventing injuries and reducing medical costs.

Generating and capitalizing on the demographic dividend potential in sub-Saharan Africa: a conceptual framework from a systematic literature review.

Background: Africa will double its population by 2050 and more than half will be below age 25. The continent has a unique opportunity to boost its socioeconomic welfare. This systematic literature review aims to develop a conceptual framework that identifies policies and programs that have provided a favorable environment for generating and harnessing a demographic dividend. This framework can facilitate sub-Saharan African countries' understanding of needed actions to accelerate their demographic transition and capitalize on their demographic dividend potential. Methods: The search strategy was structured around three concepts: economic development, fertility, and sub-Saharan Africa. Databases used included PubMed and EconLit. An inductive approach was employed to expand the reference base further. Data were extracted using literature records following a checklist of items to include when reporting a systematic review suggested in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement. Results: The final review consisted of 78 peer-reviewed articles, ten reports from the gray literature, and one book. Data were categorized according to relevant demographic dividend typology: pre-dividend and early-dividend. The results from the literature review were synthesized into a framework consisting of five sectors for pre-dividend countries, namely 1) Governance and Economic Institutions, 2) Family Planning, 3) Maternal and Child Health, 4) Education, and 5) Women's Empowerment. An additional sector, 6) Labor Market, is added for early-dividend countries. These sectors must work together to attain a demographic dividend. Conclusions: A country's demographic transition stage must guide policy and programs. Most sub-Saharan African countries have prioritized job creation and employment for youth, yet their efforts to secure a productive labor market require preliminary and complementary investments in governance, family planning, maternal and child health, education, and women's empowerment. Creating a favorable policy environment for generating and capitalizing on a demographic dividend can support their stated goals for development.