The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 3.

The total number, morbidity and mortality attributed to viraemic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections change over time making it difficult to compare reported estimates from different years. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viraemic population and forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2014 to 2030. With the exception of Iceland, Iran, Latvia and Pakistan, the total number of viraemic HCV infections is expected to decline from 2014 to 2030, but the associated morbidity and mortality are expected to increase in all countries except for Japan and South Korea. In the latter two countries, mortality due to an ageing population will drive down prevalence, morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, both countries have already experienced a rapid increase in HCV-related mortality and morbidity. HCV-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase between 2014 and 2030 in all other countries as result of an ageing HCV-infected population. Thus, although the total number of HCV countries is expected to decline in most countries studied, the associated disease burden is expected to increase. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

The Disease Burden of Hepatitis C in Belgium : An update of a realistic disease control strategy.

BACKGROUND: This manuscript serves as an update to position papers published in 2014 based on the available Belgian hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiological data. METHODS: Building on the current standard of care (2015 : 900 ≥ F3 patients treated with 70-85% SVR), four new scenarios were developed to achieve the goals of near viral elimination and prevention of HCV associated morbidity and mortality by 2026 and 2031. Increases in treatment efficacy were assumed in 2016 (90% SVR) and 2017 (95% SVR). RESULTS: Scenario 1: Treating 6,670 patients annually by 2018 (≥ F0 beginning in 2017) and diagnosing 3,790 patients annually by 2020, a 90% reduction in viremic cases and advanced outcomes was observed by 2026. Scenario 2: Treating 4,300 patients annually by 2018 (≥ F0 beginning in 2020) without increasing the number diagnosed, a 90% reduction in viremic cases and 85%-95% reduction in advanced outcomes was observed by 2031. Scenario 3: Treating 5,000 ≥ F2 patients annually by 2018, and diagnosing 3,620 patients annually by 2020, a 90% reduction in advanced outcomes and 50% reduction in viremic cases was observed by 2026. Scenario 4: Treating 3,100 ≥ F2 patients annually by 2018 without increasing the number diagnosed, a 90%-95% reduction in advanced outcomes and 55% reduction in viremic cases was observed by 2031. CONCLUSIONS: Scenario 2 would provide the most favorable balance of outcomes (90% reduction in viremic prevalence and advanced outcomes) and realistic requirements for implementation (gradual increase in treatment, delayed incorporation of patients with no/mild fibrosis).

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection disease burden - volume 2.

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: (i) increased treatment efficacy while holding the treated population constant and (ii) increased treatment efficacy and increased annual treated population. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. In most countries, the annual treated population had to increase several fold to achieve the largest reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. In most of the studied countries, the majority of patients were born between 1945 and 1985.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 2.

Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.