Impacts of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme for viral hepatitis C: A cost-effectiveness model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Egypt used to have one of the highest prevalences of HCV infection worldwide. The Egyptian Ministry of Health launched a national campaign for the detection and management of HCV to reduce its burden. This study aims to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the costs and benefits of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme. METHODS: A disease burden and economic impact model was populated with the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme data to assess direct medical costs, health effects measured in disability-adjusted life years and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The scenario was compared to a historical base case, which assumed that no programme had been conducted. RESULTS: Total number of viremic cases is expected to decrease in 2030 by 86% under the national screening and treatment programme, versus by 41% under the historical base case. Annual discounted direct medical costs are expected to decrease from $178 million in 2018 to $81 million by 2030 under the historical base case, while annual direct medical costs are estimated to have peaked in 2019 at $312 million before declining to $55 million by 2030 under the national screening and treatment programme. Under the programme, annual disability-adjusted life years are expected to decline to 127 647 by 2030, leading to 883 333 cumulative disability-adjusted life years averted over 2018-2030. CONCLUSIONS: The national screening and treatment programme is highly cost-effective by the year 2021, cost-saving by 2029 and expected to save about $35 million in direct costs and $4705 million in indirect costs by 2030.

HCV disease burden and population segments in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Switzerland has made strides towards hepatitis C virus elimination, but as of 2019, elimination was not guaranteed. However, political interest in viral hepatitis has been increasing. We sought to develop a better understanding of Switzerland's progress towards HCV elimination and the profile of remaining HCV-RNA-positive patients. METHODS: A previously described Markov model was updated with recent diagnosis and treatment data and run to generate new forecasts for HCV disease burden. Two scenarios were developed to evaluate HCV morbidity and mortality under the status quo and a scenario that achieves the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy Elimination targets. Next, an analysis was conducted to identify population segments bearing a high burden of disease, where future elimination efforts could be directed. RESULTS: At the beginning of 2020, an estimated 32 100 viremic infections remained in Switzerland (0.37% viremic prevalence). Adult (≥18 years of age) permanent residents born abroad represented the largest subpopulation, accounting for 56% of HCV infections. Thirteen countries accounted for ≥60% of viremic infections amongst permanent residents born abroad, with most people currently residing in Zurich, Vaud, Geneva, Bern, Aargau and Ticino. Amongst Swiss-born HCV-RNA-positive persons, two-thirds had a history of IDU, corresponding to 33% of total infections. CONCLUSIONS: In Switzerland, extra efforts for diagnosis and linkage to care are warranted in foreign-born populations and people with a history of drug use. Population-level measures (eg increasing the number of providers, increase screening) can identify patients who may have otherwise fallen through the gaps or avoided care because of stigma.

Global prevalence of hepatitis C virus in women of childbearing age in 2019: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Treatment for infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) during pregnancy has not yet been approved; however, interventions specifically targeting women, especially those of childbearing age (15-49 years), could prevent vertical transmission and community spread. To assess the impact of such interventions, improved prevalence estimates in this group are needed. We aimed to estimate the global prevalence of viraemic HCV in 2019 among women of childbearing age. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used previously developed models for 110 countries inputted with country-specific demographic and HCV epidemiology data. We did a literature review, searching PubMed, Embase, and grey literature for studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and June 30, 2018, reporting HCV antibody or viraemic prevalence in women of childbearing age. Studies from the literature review and studies in models were compared by use of a data quality scoring system and models were updated, as appropriate, when a better study was identified. We used these HCV disease burden models to calculate the 2019 prevalence of viraemic HCV in women of childbearing age. In countries without a model, prevalence was extrapolated by Global Burden of Disease (GBD) region. FINDINGS: An estimated 14 860 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9 667 000-18 282 000) women aged 15-49 years had HCV infection worldwide in 2019, corresponding to a viraemic prevalence of 0·78% (95% UI 0·62-0·86). Globally, HCV prevalence increased with age, rising from 0·25% (95% UI 0·20-0·27) in women aged 15-19 years to 1·21% (0·97-1·34) in women aged 45-49 years. China (16% of total infections) and Pakistan (15%) had the greatest numbers of viraemic infections, but viraemic prevalence was highest in Mongolia (5·14%, 95% CI 3·46-6·28) and Burundi (4·91%, 3·80-18·75). Of the countries with 500 cases or more, viraemic prevalence was lowest in Chile (0·07%, 95% UI 0·04-0·12). Among the GBD regions, eastern Europe had the highest viraemic prevalence (3·39%, 95% UI 1·88-3·54). By WHO region, the Eastern Mediterranean region had the highest viraemic prevalence (1·75%, 95% UI 1·26- 1·90). INTERPRETATION: Most research on HCV disease burden among women aged 15-49 years focuses on pregnant women. Using modelling, this analysis provides global and national estimates of HCV prevalence in all women of childbearing age. These data can inform preconception test-and-treat strategies to reduce vertical transmission and total disease burden. FUNDING: Gilead Sciences, John C Martin Foundation, private donors.

Impact of COVID-19 on global HCV elimination efforts.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has placed a significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change in HCV liver-related deaths and liver cancer, following a 3-month, 6-month, or 1-year hiatus in hepatitis elimination programs. METHODS: Previously developed models were adapted for 110 countries to include a status quo or 'no delay' scenario and a '1-year delay' scenario assuming significant disruption in interventions (screening, diagnosis, and treatment) in the year 2020. Annual country-level model outcomes were extracted, and weighted averages were used to calculate regional (WHO and World Bank Income Group) and global estimates from 2020 to 2030. The incremental annual change in outcomes was calculated by subtracting the 'no-delay' estimates from the '1-year delay' estimates. RESULTS: The '1-year delay' scenario resulted in 44,800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 43,800-49,300) excess hepatocellular carcinoma cases and 72,300 (95% UI: 70,600-79,400) excess liver-related deaths, relative to the 'no-delay' scenario globally, from 2020 to 2030. Most missed treatments would be in lower-middle income countries, whereas most excess hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related deaths would be among high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of COVID-19 extends beyond the direct morbidity and mortality associated with exposure and infection. To mitigate the impact on viral hepatitis programming and reduce excess mortality from delayed treatment, policy makers should prioritize hepatitis programs as soon as it becomes safe to do so. LAY SUMMARY: COVID-19 has resulted in many hepatitis elimination programs slowing or stopping altogether. A 1-year delay in hepatitis diagnosis and treatment could result in an additional 44,800 liver cancers and 72,300 deaths from HCV globally by 2030. Countries have committed to hepatitis elimination by 2030, so attention should shift back to hepatitis programming as soon as it becomes appropriate to do so.

Tailored screening and dedicated funding for direct acting antiviral drugs: how to keep Italy on the road to hepatitis C virus elimination?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination for Italy is an ambitious, but achievable goal. In Italy, there is political will, which aims to achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) elimination goals recognizing the need to identify undiagnosed individuals in key high-risk groups and in the general population, however there is concern regarding HCV treatment implementation in Italian Regions. METHODS: A modelling analysis was conducted, using the "Italy Polaris" model, to forecast the impact of different HCV treatment rates in achieving the HCV elimination goals in Italy. The model assessed two treatment scenarios: 2018 Scenario and 2019 Scenario, using the annually HCV treatment rate in Italy. RESULTS: Considering a high treatment rate, as assumed by the 2018 Scenario, all HCV elimination targets would be achieved. Considering the 2019 Scenario, in which a decreasing number of newly diagnosed individuals and as consequence, a decline in the number of treated patients, were assumed, only the 65% HCV mortality reduction would be an achievable goal in Italy. The other elimination targets could be achievable over 7 years later than the year 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Establishing an ad hoc fund for DAAs for each Italian Region, binding resources both for case finding, through active screening and activities for rapid linkage to care and treatment, is of paramount importance, in order to keep Italy on track to achieve the WHO elimination targets by 2030.

Optimization of hepatitis C virus screening strategies by birth cohort in Italy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cost-effective screening strategies are needed to make hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination a reality. We determined if birth cohort screening is cost-effective in Italy. METHODS: A model was developed to quantify screening and healthcare costs associated with HCV. The model-estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV was used to calculate the antibody screens needed annually, with a €25 000 cost-effectiveness threshold. Outcomes were assessed under the status quo and a scenario that met the World Health Organization's targets for elimination of HCV. The elimination scenario was assessed under five screening strategies. RESULTS: A graduated birth cohort screening strategy (graduated screening 1: 1968-1987 birth cohorts, then expanding to 1948-1967 cohorts) was the least costly. This strategy would gain approximately 144 000 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 2031 and result in an 89.3% reduction in HCV cases, compared to an 89.6%, 89.0%, 89.7% and 88.7% reduction for inversed graduated screening, 1948-77 birth cohort, 1958-77 birth cohort and universal screening, respectively. Graduated screening 1 yielded the lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €3552 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: In Italy, a graduated screening scenario is the most cost-effective strategy. Other countries could consider a similar birth cohort approach when developing HCV screening strategies.

Global prevalence of hepatitis C virus in children in 2018: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence estimates for adults and high-risk groups have been widely published, but the disease burden in children is poorly understood. Direct-acting antiviral drugs, which are considered to be highly effective curative therapies for HCV, are now approved for paediatric patients as young as 3 years. Reliable prevalence estimates for this population are needed to inform scale-up of treatment and national strategies. This analysis combines past modelling and epidemiological work in 104 countries and territories to estimate global HCV prevalence in children in 2018. METHODS: In this modelling study, a comprehensive literature review for articles published between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2019, was used to determine historical HCV prevalence estimates in children in all 249 countries and territories of the world. We identified published HCV prevalence estimates for children aged 0-18 years who are not at high risk of HCV infection in 39 countries and territories and inputted them into dynamic Markov disease-burden models to estimate viraemic HCV prevalence in 2018. For 25 of them, which had complete data, available information on HCV prevalence in children was used to build regression models to predict paediatric prevalence in an additional 65 countries and territories that had country-specific or territory-specific data about predictors only. Regression models were created for each 5-year paediatric age cohort from 0 to 19 years, considering several predictor variables. The data and forecasts from the 104 countries and territories for which data were available were used to calculate HCV prevalence by Global Burden of Disease region, which was then applied to the remaining 145 countries and territories to generate a global estimate. FINDINGS: The global estimate for viraemic prevalence in the paediatric population aged 0-18 years was 0·13% (95% uncertainty interval 0·08-0·16), corresponding to 3·26 million (2·07-3·90) children with HCV in 2018. HCV prevalence increased with age in all countries and territories. HCV prevalence in women of childbearing age was the strongest predictor of HCV prevalence in children aged 0-4 years (p<0·0001). Prevalence of HCV in adults was significantly associated with HCV prevalence in children aged 5-19 years (p<0·0001), and the proportion of HCV infections in people who inject drugs was significantly associated with HCV prevalence in children aged 15-19 years (p=0·036). INTERPRETATION: Most studies on HCV prevalence in children focus on high-risk groups and highly endemic geographic areas. Our analysis provides global prevalence estimates of HCV in the paediatric population. Treatment in paediatric patients requires different clinical and population health management optimisation than in adults. Because of this heterogeneity, country-specific or territory-specific and age-specific HCV prevalence estimates can help countries and territories to improve national HCV elimination strategies. FUNDING: Gilead Sciences, John C Martin Foundation, and private donors.

Global burden of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in people with hepatitis C virus infection: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: More than 70 million people worldwide are estimated to have hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Emerging evidence indicates an association between HCV and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We aimed to determine the association between HCV and cardiovascular disease, and estimate the national, regional, and global burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to HCV. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, Ovid Global Health, and Web of Science databases from inception to May 9, 2018, without language restrictions, for longitudinal studies that evaluated the risk ratio (RR) of cardiovascular disease in people with HCV compared with those without HCV. Two investigators independently reviewed and extracted data from published reports. The main outcome was cardiovascular disease, defined as hospital admission with, or mortality from, acute myocardial infarction or stroke. We calculated the pooled RR of cardiovascular disease associated with HCV using a random-effects model. Additionally, we calculated the population attributable fraction and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from HCV-associated cardiovascular disease at the national, regional, and global level. We also used age-stratified and sex-stratified HCV prevalence estimates and cardiovascular DALYs for 100 countries to estimate country-level burden associated with HCV. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018091857. FINDINGS: Our search identified 16 639 records, of which 36 studies were included for analysis, including 341 739 people with HCV. The pooled RR for cardiovascular disease was 1·28 (95% CI 1·18-1·39). Globally, 1·5 million (95% CI 0·9-2·1) DALYs per year were lost due to HCV-associated cardiovascular disease. Low-income and middle-income countries had the highest disease burden with south Asian, eastern European, north African, and Middle Eastern regions accounting for two-thirds of all HCV-associated cardiovascular DALYs. INTERPRETATION: HCV infection is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. The global burden of cardiovascular disease associated with HCV infection was responsible for 1·5 million DALYs, with the highest burden in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and Wellcome Trust.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of strategies to manage the disease burden of hepatitis C virus in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A previous analysis of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related healthcare costs in Switzerland found that the annual healthcare costs of untreated HCV infection (excluding antiviral treatment) could increase by more than 25 million Swiss francs (CHF) between 2013 and 2030. Since that publication, highly efficacious direct-acting antiviral therapies (DAAs) have become available, making HCV elimination a possibility. This analysis quantifies the clinical and economic burden of HCV intervention strategies over the next 15 years. METHODS: A model was developed to estimate the future clinical and economic burden of HCV infection if patients are diagnosed and treated according to a historical paradigm (historical base case), or at higher levels without treatment reimbursement restrictions (Scenario 1). The infected population was tracked by age- and sex-defined cohorts, and associated direct medical costs (healthcare, screening, diagnostics and treatment) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated. Direct cost savings and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated to assess the economic impact of each scenario. Additionally, we generated a net-zero cost scenario (Scenario 2), assuming the same treatment paradigm as Scenario 1 but at the treatment price that would break even by 2031. RESULTS: In the historical base case, annual direct costs are projected to decrease from 150 million (95% UI: 132–170 million) CHF in 2016 to 90 million (95% UI: 65–111 million) CHF in 2031. Cumulative direct costs are projected to reach 1.7 billion (95% UI: 1.2–2.0 billion) CHF by 2031. In Scenario 1, annual direct costs first increased to 175 million CHF by 2018, before declining to 44 million CHF by 2031. Cumulative direct costs in this scenario are projected to reach 1.8 billion CHF by 2031. For Scenario 2, the treatment price needed to achieve break-even by 2031 considering only direct costs would be 27,900 CHF per patient. By 2031, Scenarios 1 and 2 would gain 58,300 QALYs. In both scenarios, the ICER drops below the cost-effectiveness threshold of 78,000 CHF in 2018. Over the 15-year span, the ICER was determined to be 2,200 CHF for Scenario 1. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing the number of patients treated and treating all fibrosis stages is cost-effective compared to the historical base case and could achieve break-even by 2031 at a price of 27,900 CHF.

Disease burden of hepatitis C in the Austrian state of Tyrol - Epidemiological data and model analysis to achieve elimination by 2030.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) and 69th World Health Assembly approved the first global health sector strategy (GHSS) on viral hepatitis with the goal to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections worldwide. The aim is a 90% reduction of new infections and 65% reduction of HCV-related deaths by 2030. AIM: This study reports on the epidemiology of HCV infections in the Austrian state of Tyrol (total population 750,000) and uses a predictive model to identify how the WHO strategy for elimination of HCV can be achieved. METHODS: We developed a regional disease burden model based on observed local diagnosis data from 2001 to 2016. Scenarios were developed to evaluate the impact of diagnosis and treatment on HCV-related outcomes (viremic prevalence, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related deaths) from 2015 through 2030. RESULTS: In the last 15 years, 1,721 patients living in Tyrol have been diagnosed with chronic HCV infection. When ageing, mortality and treatment were factored in, there were an estimated 2,043 viremic HCV infections in 2016, of which 1,136 cases had been diagnosed. A baseline model predicts a decrease of 588 HCV cases from 2015 to 2030, which would not translate into the significant reduction of infections needed to achieve WHO global health recommendations. A total of 1,843 infected individuals need to be identified and treated to achieve the WHO goals by 2030 (1,254 averted cases as compared to baseline model). Implementation of this strategy would avoid 523 new HCV infections and decreases HCV-related mortality by 73%. CONCLUSION: HCV elimination and >65% reduction of associated mortality are possible for Tyrol, but requires a significant increase in new diagnoses and treatment rate. The model presented in this study could serve as an example for other regions to reliably predict regional disease burden and estimate how WHO goals can be met in the future.

Forecasting Hepatitis C liver disease burden on real-life data. Does the hidden iceberg matter to reach the elimination goals?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Advances in direct-acting antiviral treatment of HCV have reinvigorated public health initiatives aimed at identifying affected individuals. We evaluated the possible impact of only diagnosed and linked-to-care individuals on overall HCV burden estimates and identified a possible strategy to achieve the WHO targets by 2030. METHODS: Using a modelling approach grounded in Italian real-life data of diagnosed and treated patients, different linkage-to-care scenarios were built to evaluate potential strategies in achieving the HCV elimination goals. RESULTS: Under the 40% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic burden would decline (60%); however, eligible patients to treat will be depleted by 2025. Increased case finding through a targeted screening strategy in 1948-1978 birth cohorts could supplement the pool of diagnosed patients by finding 75% of F0-F3 cases. Under the 60% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic infections would decline by 70% by 2030 but the patients eligible for treatment will run out by 2028. If treatment is to be maintained, a screening strategy focusing on 1958-1978 birth cohorts could capture 55% of F0-F3 individuals. Under the 80% linked-to-care scenario, screening limited in 1968-1978 birth cohorts could sustain treatment at levels required to achieve the HCV elimination goals. CONCLUSION: In Italy, which is an HCV endemic country, the eligible pool of patients to treat will run out between 2025 and 2028. To maintain the treatment rate and achieve the HCV elimination goals, increased case finding in targeted, high prevalence groups is required.

Progress toward implementing the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy: Is HCV elimination possible by 2030?

Catalyzed by the concerns over the growing public health and economic burden of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Switzerland, a diverse group of experts and patient representatives came together in 2014 to develop the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy, setting targets for the elimination of viral hepatitis in Switzerland by 2030. Previous studies have reported the estimated number of chronic HCV infections and forecasted burden of disease given different intervention strategies. However, given new prevalence data by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, which decreased total infections by about half, an updated analysis is warranted. We aimed to provide an updated viremic prevalence estimate for Switzerland and evaluate the impact on forecasted liver related morbidity and mortality of an 'inaction' scenario and intervention scenarios to achieve the Global Health Sector Strategy for Viral Hepatitis and Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals by 2030. A Markov disease-progression model was used to calculate the present and future burden of HCV infection by disease stage according to these different strategies. In 2017, there were an estimated 36,800 (95% UI: 26,900-39,200) viremic infections in Switzerland. Given the current standard of care, total viremic infections are expected to decline by 45%, while cases of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related deaths will decrease by 20%. If treatment and diagnosis efforts were to cease in 2018, late stage HCV-related morbidity and mortality would increase by 90-100% by 2030. Increasing treatment and diagnosis to achieve the Global Health Sector Strategy or Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals by 2030, will reduce the number of chronic infections to less than 13,000 and 4,000, respectively. Although the HCV epidemic is declining in Switzerland, efforts to expand diagnosis and treatment are needed to achieve elimination by 2030.

Birth cohort distribution and screening for viraemic hepatitis C virus infections in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVE: In Switzerland, fewer than 40% of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected individuals have been diagnosed. The aim of this project was to analyse the distribution of HCV cases in order to develop better detection strategies. STUDY DESIGN: Historical data on the HCV-infected population in Switzerland were obtained from published literature, unpublished data and government reports. A disease progression model was used to age the infected population to 2015. The HCV distribution was then used to identify 5-year age cohorts with the highest HCV prevalence. The estimated number of cases needed to screen within an age cohort was calculated using the estimated viraemic prevalence, removing the percent previously diagnosed. RESULTS: In 2015, the median age of the viraemic HCV infected population was 49 years, with 75% of the population born between 1951 and 1985. Random screening of the general population could identify one new viraemic HCV case per 159 persons screened, compared with targeted birth cohort screening, which could identify one new viraemic HCV case per 90-99 persons screened. CONCLUSION: Considering only the direct cost of screening and treatment informing tests, targeted screening by birth cohort is more effective and cost effective than random screening in the general population.

Modeling the Health and Economic Burden of Hepatitis C Virus in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of liver disease in Switzerland and carries a significant cost burden. Currently, only conservative strategies are in place to mitigate the burden of hepatitis C in Switzerland. This study expands on previously described modeling efforts to explore the impact of: no treatment, and treatment to reduce HCC and mortality. Furthermore, the costs associated with untreated HCV were modeled. METHODS: Hepatitis C disease progression and mortality were modeled. Baseline historical assumptions were collected from the literature and expert interviews and strategies were developed to show the impact of different levels of intervention (improved drug cure rates, treatment and diagnosis) until 2030. RESULTS: Under the historical standard of care, the number of advanced stage cases was projected to increase until 2030, at which point the annual economic burden of untreated viremic infections was projected to reach €96.8 (95% Uncertainty Interval: €36 - €232) million. Scenarios to reduce HCV liver-related mortality by 90% by 2030 required treatment of 4,190 ≥F2 or 3,200 ≥F3 patients annually by 2018 using antivirals with a 95% efficacy rate. Delaying the implementation of these scenarios by 2 or 5 years reduced the impact on mortality to 75% and 57%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: With today's treatment efficacy and uptake rates, hepatitis C disease burden is expected to increase through 2030. A substantial reduction in disease burden can be achieved by means of both higher efficacy drugs and increased treatment uptake. However, these efforts cannot be undertaken without a simultaneous effort to diagnose more infections.

The future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Sweden and the impact of different treatment strategies.

UNLABELLED: OBJECTIVE. Recently, new highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) against hepatitis C virus (HCV) were introduced. Whether these will alleviate the anticipated increase of liver disease burden in Sweden is unknown, partly because high costs may restrict the use. The objectives were to model the HCV epidemic in Sweden, the burden of disease, and the potential impact of different treatment strategies. MATERIAL AND METHODS: HCV disease progression was modeled to 2030. Scenarios were simulated using new DAAs with sustained annual treatment rate (n = 1130), reduced treatment rate (n = 380) to maintain budget, and increased treatment rates (n = 1430 or 2260) to reduce HCV infections. RESULTS: With today's triple therapies, the estimated number of serious liver complications and death are expected to peak in 2021. Using new DAAs among F0-F4 patients, an unchanged annual treatment rate can reduce the number of HCV infections by 10% by 2030; however, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality will remain unchanged. By reducing to 380 treatments annually and focusing on patients with advanced fibrosis (F3-F4), serious complications will remain constant but the total number of HCV infections will increase. By doubling the number of DAA treatments, HCC-incidence and liver-related deaths would decrease by 65-70% by 2030. CONCLUSION: Mortality and HCC can be reduced with new DAAs and sustained treatment uptake when restricted to F2-F4 patients, or with increased uptake in F0-F4 patients. Treatment restrictions to limit cost may reduce the positive effects and increase the burden of HCV infection. These results may be important for the future strategies of HCV management.