Effective multi-sectoral approach for rapid reduction in maternal and neonatal mortality: the exceptional case of Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Bangladesh experienced impressive reductions in maternal and neonatal mortality over the past several decades with annual rates of decline surpassing 4% since 2000. We comprehensively assessed health system and non-health factors that drove Bangladesh's success in mortality reduction. METHODS: We operationalised a comprehensive conceptual framework and analysed available household surveys for trends and inequalities in mortality, intervention coverage and quality of care. These include 12 household surveys totalling over 1.3 million births in the 15 years preceding the surveys. Literature and desk reviews permitted a reconstruction of policy and programme development and financing since 1990. These were supplemented with key informant interviews to understand implementation decisions and strategies. RESULTS: Bangladesh prioritised early population policies to manage its rapidly growing population through community-based family planning programmes initiated in mid-1970s. These were followed in the 1990s and 2000s by priority to increase access to health facilities leading to rapid increases in facility delivery, intervention coverage and access to emergency obstetric care, with large contribution from private facilities. A decentralised health system organisation, from communities to the central level, openness to private for-profit sector growth, and efficient financing allocation to maternal and newborn health enabled rapid progress. Other critical levers included poverty reduction, women empowerment, rural development, and culture of data generation and use. However, recent empirical data suggest a slowing down of mortality reductions. CONCLUSION: Bangladesh demonstrated effective multi-sectoral approach and persistent programming, testing and implementation to achieve rapid gains in maternal and neonatal mortality reduction. The slowing down of recent mortality trends suggests that the country will need to revise its strategies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. As fertility reached replacement level, further gains in maternal and neonatal mortality will require prioritising universal access to quality facility delivery, and addressing inequalities, including reaching the rural poor.

Antenatal multiple micronutrient supplements versus iron-folic acid supplements and birth outcomes: Analysis by gestational age assessment method.

Meta-analyses consistently have found that antenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS) compared with iron and folic acid (IFA) alone reduce adverse birth outcomes. In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) placed a conditional recommendation for MMS and requested additional trials using ultrasounds to establish gestational age, because the evidence on low birthweight (LBW), preterm birth and small for gestational age (SGA) was considered inconsistent. We conducted meta-analyses to determine if the effects of MMS on LBW, preterm birth and SGA differed by gestational age assessment method. Using data from the 16 trials in the WHO analyses, we calculated the effect estimates of MMS versus IFA on birth outcomes (generic inverse variance method and random effects model) stratified by method of gestational age assessment: ultrasound, prospective collection of the date of last menstrual period (LMP) and confirmation of pregnancy by urine test and recall of LMP. The effects of MMS versus IFA on birthweight, preterm birth and SGA appeared consistent across subgroups with no evidence of subgroup differences (p > 0.05). When limited to the seven trials that used ultrasound, the beneficial effects of MMS were demonstrated: risk ratios of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.97) for LBW, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.79-1.03) for preterm birth and 0.9 (95% CI, 0.83-0.99) for SGA. Sensitivity analyses indicated consistency in the results. These results, together with recent analyses demonstrating comparable effects of MMS (vs. IFA) on maternal anaemia outcomes, strengthen the evidence to support a transition from IFA to MMS programmes in low- and middle-income countries.

Demographic, socio-economic, obstetric, and behavioral factors associated with small-and large-for-gestational-age from a prospective, population-based pregnancy cohort in rural Nepal: a secondary data analysis.

BACKGROUND: In South Asia, a third of babies are born small-for-gestational age (SGA). The risk factors are well described in the literature, but many studies are in high-and-middle income countries or measure SGA on facility births only. There are fewer studies that describe the prevalence of risk factors for large-for-gestational age (LGA) in low-income countries. We aim to describe the factors associated with SGA and LGA in a population-based cohort of pregnant women in rural Nepal. METHODS: This is a secondary data analysis of community-based trial on neonatal oil massage (22,545 women contributing 39,479 pregnancies). Demographic, socio-economic status (SES), medical/obstetric history, and timing of last menstruation were collected at enrollment. Vital signs, illness symptoms, and antenatal care (ANC) attendance were collected throughout the pregnancy and neonatal weight was measured for live births. We conducted multivariate analysis using multinomial, multilevel logistic regression, reporting the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Outcomes were SGA, LGA compared to appropriate-for-gestational age (AGA) and were multiply imputed using birthweight recalibrated to time at delivery. RESULTS: SGA was associated with nulligravida (OR: 2.12 95% CI: 1.93-2.34), gravida/nulliparous (OR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.26-2.74), interpregnancy intervals less than 18 months (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.07-1.27), and poor appetite/vomiting in the second trimester, (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.19-1.35). Greater wealth (OR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.69-0.88), swelling of hands/face in the third trimester (OR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.69-0.94) parity greater than five (OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.65-0.92), male fetal sex (OR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.86-0.98), and increased weight gain (OR: 0.93 per weight kilogram difference between 2nd and 3rd trimester, 95% CI: 0.92-0.95) were protective for SGA. Four or more ANC visits (OR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.41-0.68) and respiratory symptoms in the third trimester (OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.54-0.84) were negatively associated with LGA, and maternal age < 18 years (OR: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.03-1.87) and respiratory symptoms in the second trimester (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.07-1.51) were positively associated with LGA. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are in line with known risk factors for SGA. Because the prevalence and mortality risk of LGA babies is low in this population, it is likely LGA status does not indicate underlaying illness. Improved and equitable access to high quality antenatal care, monitoring for appropriate gestational weight gain and increased monitoring of women with high-risk pregnancies may reduce prevalence and improve outcomes of SGA babies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study used in this secondary data analysis was registered at Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01177111.

What can work and how? An overview of evidence-based interventions and delivery strategies to support health and human development from before conception to 20 years.

Progress has been made globally in improving the coverage of key maternal, newborn, and early childhood interventions in low-income and middle-income countries, which has contributed to a decrease in child mortality and morbidity. However, inequities remain, and many children and adolescents are still not covered by life-saving and nurturing care interventions, despite their relatively low costs and high cost-effectiveness. This Series paper builds on a large body of work from the past two decades on evidence-based interventions and packages of care for survival, strategies for delivery, and platforms to reach the most vulnerable. We review the current evidence base on the effectiveness of a variety of essential and emerging interventions that can be delivered from before conception until age 20 years to help children and adolescents not only survive into adulthood, but also to grow and develop optimally, support their wellbeing, and help them reach their full developmental potential. Although scaling up evidence-based interventions in children younger than 5 years might have the greatest effect on reducing child mortality rates, we highlight interventions and evidence gaps for school-age children (5-9 years) and the transition from childhood to adolescence (10-19 years), including interventions to support mental health and positive development, and address unintentional injuries, neglected tropical diseases, and non-communicable diseases.

Economic costs of childhood stunting to the private sector in low- and middle-income countries.

Background: Stunting during childhood has long-term consequences on human capital, including decreased physical growth, and lower educational attainment, cognition, workforce productivity and wages. Previous research has quantified the costs of stunting to national economies however beyond a few single-country datasets there has been a limited number of which have used diverse datasets and have had a dedicated focus on the private sector, which employs nearly 90% of the workforce in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to examine (i) the impact of childhood stunting on income loss of private sector workforce in LMICs; (ii) to quantify losses in sales to private firms in LMICs due to childhood stunting; and (iii) to estimate potential gains (benefit-cost ratios) if stunting levels are reduced in select high prevalence countries. Methods: This multiple-methods study engaged multi-disciplinary technical advisers, executed several literature reviews, used innovative statistical methods, and implemented health and labor economic models. We analyzed data from seven longitudinal datasets (up to 30+ years of follow-up; 1982-2016; Peru, Ethiopia, India, Vietnam, Philippines, Tanzania, Brazil), 108 private firm datasets (spanning 2008-2020), and many global datasets including Joint Malnutrition Estimates, and World Development Indicators to produce estimates for 120+ LMICs (with estimates up to 2021). We studied the impact of childhood stunting on adult cognition, education, and height as pathways to wages/productivity in adulthood. We employed cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) platforms, and conducted comparative analyses using three analytic approaches: traditional frequentist statistics, Bayesian inferential statistics and machine learning. We employed labour and health economic models to estimate wage losses to the private sector worker and firm revenue losses due to stunting. We also estimated benefit-cost ratios for countries investing in nutrition-specific interventions to prevent stunting. Findings: Across 95 LMICs, childhood stunting costs the private sector at least US$135.4 billion in sales annually. Firms from countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and Pacific regions had the greatest losses. Totals sales losses to the private sector accumulated to 0.01% to 1.2% of national GDP across countries. Sectors most affected by childhood stunting were manufacturing (non-metallic mineral, fabricated metal, other), garments and food sectors. Sale losses were highest for larger sized private firms. Across regions (representing 123 LMICs), US$700 million (Middle East and North Africa) to US$16.5 billion (East Asia and Pacific) monthly income was lost among private sector workers. Investing in stunting reduction interventions yields gains from US$2 to US$81 per $1 invested annually (or 100% to 8000% across countries). Across sectors, the highest returns were in elementary occupations (US$46) and the lowest were among agricultural workers (US$8). By gender, women incurred a higher income penalty from childhood stunting and earned less than men; due to their relatively higher earnings, the returns for investing in stunting reduction were consistently higher for men across most countries studied. Interpretation: Childhood stunting costs the private sector in LMICs billions of dollars in sales and earnings for the workforce annually. Returns to nutrition interventions show that there is an economic case to be made for investing in childhood nutrition, alongside a moral one for both the public and private sector. This research could be used to motivate strong public-private sector partnerships to invest in childhood undernutrition for benefits in the short and long-term.

National, regional, and global causes of mortality in 5-19-year-olds from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Investments in the survival of older children and adolescents (aged 5-19 years) bring triple dividends for now, their future, and the next generation. However, 1·5 million deaths occurred in this age group globally in 2019, nearly all from preventable causes. To better focus the attention of the global community on improving survival of children and adolescents and to guide effective policy and programmes, sound and timely cause of death data are crucial, but often scarce. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, we provide updated time-series for 2000-19 of national, regional, and global cause of death estimates for 5-19-year-olds with age-sex disaggregation. We estimated separately for countries with high versus low mortality, by data availability, and for four age-sex groups (5-9-year-olds [both sexes], 10-14-year-olds [both sexes], 15-19-year-old females, and 15-19-year-old males). Only studies reporting at least two causes of death were included in our analysis. We obtained empirical cause of death data through systematic review, known investigator tracing, and acquisition of known national and subnational cause of death studies. We adapted the Bayesian Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator approach to address data scarcity, enhance covariate selection, produce more robust estimates, offer increased flexibility, allow country random effects, propagate coherent uncertainty, and improve model stability. We harmonised all-cause mortality estimates with the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and systematically integrated single cause estimates as needed from WHO and UNAIDS. FINDINGS: In 2019, the global leading specific causes of death were road traffic injuries (115 843 [95% uncertainty interval 110 672-125 054] deaths; 7·8% [7·5-8·1]); neoplasms (95 401 [90 744-104 812]; 6·4% [6·1-6·8]); malaria (81 516 [72 150-94 477]; 5·5% [4·9-6·2]); drowning (77 460 [72 474-85 952]; 5·2% [4·9-5·5]); and diarrhoea (72 679 [66 599-82 002], 4·9% [4·5-5·3]). The leading causes varied substantially across regions. The contribution of communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions declined with age, whereas the number of deaths associated with injuries increased. The leading causes of death were diarrhoea (51 630 [47 206-56 235] deaths; 10·0% [9·5-10·5]) in 5-9-year-olds; malaria (31 587 [23 940-43 116]; 8·6% [6·6-10·4]) in 10-14-year-olds; self-harm (32 646 [29 530-36 416]; 13·4% [12·6-14·3]) in 15-19-year-old females; and road traffic injuries (48 757 [45 692-52 625]; 13·9% [13·3-14·3]) in 15-19-year-old males. Widespread declines in cause-specific mortality were estimated across age-sex groups and geographies in 2000-19, with few exceptions like collective violence. INTERPRETATION: Child and adolescent survival needs focused attention. To translate the vision into actions, more investments in the health information infrastructure for cause of death and in the related life-saving interventions are needed. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Global, regional, and national causes of under-5 mortality in 2000-19: an updated systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals.

BACKGROUND: Causes of mortality are a crucial input for health systems for identifying appropriate interventions for child survival. We present an updated series of cause-specific mortality for neonates and children younger than 5 years from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: We updated cause-specific mortality estimates for neonates and children aged 1-59 months, stratified by level (low, moderate, or high) of mortality. We made a substantial change in the statistical methods used for previous estimates, transitioning to a Bayesian framework that includes a structure to account for unreported causes in verbal autopsy studies. We also used systematic covariate selection in the multinomial framework, gave more weight to nationally representative verbal autopsy studies using a random effects model, and included mortality due to tuberculosis. FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 5·30 million deaths (95% uncertainty range 4·92-5·68) among children younger than 5 years, primarily due to preterm birth complications (17·7%, 16·1-19·5), lower respiratory infections (13·9%, 12·0-15·1), intrapartum-related events (11·6%, 10·6-12·5), and diarrhoea (9·1%, 7·9-9·9), with 49·2% (47·3-51·9) due to infectious causes. Vaccine-preventable deaths, such as for lower respiratory infections, meningitis, and measles, constituted 21·7% (20·4-25·6) of under-5 deaths, and many other causes, such as diarrhoea, were preventable with low-cost interventions. Under-5 mortality has declined substantially since 2000, primarily because of a decrease in mortality due to lower respiratory infections, diarrhoea, preterm birth complications, intrapartum-related events, malaria, and measles. There is considerable variation in the extent and trends in cause-specific mortality across regions and for different strata of all-cause under-5 mortality. INTERPRETATION: Progress is needed to improve child health and end preventable deaths among children younger than 5 years. Countries should strategize how to reduce mortality among this age group using interventions that are relevant to their specific causes of death. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; WHO.

Antenatal care in Southern Brazil: Coverage, trends and inequalities.

We described prenatal care quality for four indicators over a 12-years period among puerperae living in Southern Brazil. Five surveys including all women giving birth between 01/01 to 31/12 in 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2019 were conducted in Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. A single standardized questionnaire was applied within 48 h after delivery in all the city's maternity hospitals. Outcomes included the followings proportion of pregnant women who started prenatal care in the first trimester and performed at least six medical visits, completed at least two HIV, two syphilis and two qualitative urine tests. These indicators were stratified according to quartiles of household income. Absolute and relative measures of inequalities were calculated. A total of 12,645 (98% of the total) of the 12,914 mothers eligible in the five surveys were successfully interviewed. Coverage for all indicators increased substantially, especially in the poorest quartile for six prenatal care visits starting in the first trimester, and for HIV and qualitative urine tests. The slope index (SII) and the concentration index (CIX) of inequality showed clear disadvantage among the poorest for prenatal visits starting in the first trimester and performing two or more urine tests. There was a substantial increase in coverage for all variables studied in the period. The reduced inequity, mainly for the beginning of the first trimester and for visits and urine tests, was due to the higher coverage achieved in the poorest quartile.

Verbal/social autopsy analysis of causes and determinants of under-5 mortality in Tanzania from 2010 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: Tanzania has decreased its child mortality rate by more than 70 percent in the last three decades and is striving to develop a nationally-representative sample registration system with verbal autopsy to help focus health policies and programs toward further reduction. As an interim measure, a verbal and social autopsy study was conducted to provide vital information on the causes and social determinants of neonatal and child deaths. METHODS: Causes of neonatal and 1-59 month-old deaths identified by the 2015-16 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey were assessed using the expert algorithm verbal autopsy method. The social autopsy examined prevalence of key household, community and health system indicators of preventive and curative care provided along the continuum of care and Pathway to Survival models. Careseeking for neonates and 1-59 month-olds was compared, and tests of associations of age and cause of death to careseeking indicators and place of death were conducted. RESULTS: The most common causes of death of 228 neonates and 351 1-59 month-olds, respectively, were severe infection, intrapartum related events and preterm delivery, and pneumonia, diarrhea and malaria. Coverage of early initiation of breastfeeding (24%), hygienic cord care (29%), and full immunization of 12-59 month-olds (33%) was problematic. Most (88.8%) neonates died in the first week, including 44.3% in their birth facility before leaving. Formal care was sought for just 41.9% of newborns whose illness started at home and was delayed by 5.3 days for 1-59 month-olds who sought informal care. Care was less likely to be sought for the youngest neonates and infants and severely ill children. Although 70.3% of 233 under-5 year-olds were moderately or severely ill on discharge from their first provider, only 29.0%-31.2% were referred. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights needed actions to complete Tanzania's child survival agenda. Low levels of some preventive interventions need to be addressed. The high rate of facility births and neonatal deaths requires strengthening of institutionally-based interventions targeting maternal labor and delivery complications and neonatal causes of death. Scale-up of Integrated Community Case Management should be considered to strengthen careseeking for the youngest newborns, infants and severely ill children and referral practices at first level facilities.

How countries can reduce child stunting at scale: lessons from exemplar countries.

BACKGROUND: Child stunting and linear growth faltering have declined over the past few decades and several countries have made exemplary progress. OBJECTIVES: To synthesize findings from mixed methods studies of exemplar countries to provide guidance on how to accelerate reduction in child stunting. METHODS: We did a qualitative and quantitative synthesis of findings from existing literature and 5 exemplar country studies (Nepal, Ethiopia, Peru, Kyrgyz Republic, Senegal). Methodology included 4 broad research activities: 1) a series of descriptive analyses of cross-sectional data from demographic and health surveys and multiple indicator cluster surveys; 2) multivariable analysis of quantitative drivers of change in linear growth; 3) interviews and focus groups with national experts and community stakeholders and mothers; and 4) a review of policy and program evolution related to nutrition. RESULTS: Several countries have dramatically reduced child stunting prevalence, with or without closing geographical, economic, and other population inequalities. Countries made progress through interventions from within and outside the health sector, and despite significant heterogeneity and differences in context, contributions were comparable from health and nutrition sectors (40% of change) and other sectors (50%), previously called nutrition-specific and -sensitive strategies. Improvements in maternal education, maternal nutrition, maternal and newborn care, and reductions in fertility/reduced interpregnancy intervals were strong contributors to change. A roadmap to reducing child stunting at scale includes several steps related to diagnostics, stakeholder consultations, and implementing direct and indirect nutrition interventions related to the health sector and nonhealth sector . CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that child stunting reduction is possible even in diverse and challenging contexts. We propose that our framework of organizing nutrition interventions as direct/indirect and inside/outside the health sector should be considered when mapping causal pathways of child stunting and planning interventions and strategies to accelerate stunting reduction to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

Setting research priorities on multiple micronutrient supplementation in pregnancy.

Prenatal micronutrient deficiencies are associated with negative maternal and birth outcomes. Multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS) during pregnancy is a cost-effective intervention to reduce these adverse outcomes. However, important knowledge gaps remain in the implementation of MMS interventions. The Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) methodology was applied to inform the direction of research and investments needed to support the implementation of MMS interventions for pregnant women in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Following CHNRI methodology guidelines, a group of international experts in nutrition and maternal health provided and ranked the research questions that most urgently need to be resolved for prenatal MMS interventions to be successfully implemented. Seventy-three research questions were received, analyzed, and reorganized, resulting in 35 consolidated research questions. These were scored against four criteria, yielding a priority ranking where the top 10 research options focused on strategies to increase antenatal care attendance and MMS adherence, methods needed to identify populations more likely to benefit from MMS interventions and some discovery issues (e.g., potential benefit of extending MMS through lactation). This exercise prioritized 35 discrete research questions that merit serious consideration for the potential of MMS during pregnancy to be optimized in LMIC.

Contaminant Concentrations in Sediments, Aquatic Invertebrates, and Fish in Proximity to Rail Tracks Used for Coal Transport in the Pacific Northwest (USA): A Baseline Assessment.

Railway transport of coal poses an environmental risk, because coal dust contains polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), mercury, and other trace metals. In the Pacific Northwest of the United States, proposed infrastructure projects could result in an increase in coal transport by train through the Columbia River corridor. Baseline information is needed on current distributions, levels, and spatial patterns of coal dust-derived contaminants in habitats and organisms adjacent to existing coal transport lines. To that end, we collected aquatic surface sediments, aquatic insects, and juvenile fish in 2014 and 2015 from Horsethief Lake State Park and Steigerwald National Wildlife Refuge, both located in Washington state close to the rail line and within the Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area. Two subsites in each area were selected: one close to the rail line and one far from the rail line. Detected PAH concentrations were relatively low compared with those measured at more urbanized areas. Some contaminants were measured at higher concentrations at the subsites close to the rail line, but it was not possible to link the contaminants to a definitive source. Trace metal concentrations were only slightly higher than background concentrations, but a few of the more sensitive benchmarks were exceeded, including those for arsenic, lead, and selenium in fish tissue and fluoranthene, cadmium, copper, manganese, nickel, zinc, iron, and arsenic in sediments. At Horsethief Lake, Chinook salmon and yellow perch showed lower total mercury body burdens than other species, but PAH body burdens did not differ significantly among species. Differences in the species caught among subsites and the low number of invertebrate samples rendered food web comparisons difficult, but these data show that the PAHs and trace metals, including mercury, are accumulating in these wetland sites and in some resident organisms.

National, regional, and state-level all-cause and cause-specific under-5 mortality in India in 2000-15: a systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals.

BACKGROUND: India had the largest number of under-5 deaths of all countries in 2015, with substantial subnational disparities. We estimated national and subnational all-cause and cause-specific mortality among children younger than 5 years annually in 2000-15 in India to understand progress made and to consider implications for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) child survival targets. METHODS: We used a multicause model to estimate cause-specific mortality proportions in neonates and children aged 1-59 months at the state level, with causes of death grouped into pneumonia, diarrhoea, meningitis, injury, measles, congenital abnormalities, preterm birth complications, intrapartum-related events, and other causes. AIDS and malaria were estimated separately. The model was based on verbal autopsy studies representing more than 100 000 neonatal deaths globally and 16 962 deaths among children aged 1-59 months at the subnational level in India. By applying these proportions to all-cause deaths by state, we estimated cause-specific numbers of deaths and mortality rates at the state, regional, and national levels. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 25·121 million livebirths in India and 1·201 million under-5 deaths (under-5 mortality rate 47·81 per 1000 livebirths). 0·696 million (57·9%) of these deaths occurred in neonates. There were disparities in child mortality across states (from 9·7 deaths [Goa] to 73·1 deaths [Assam] per 1000 livebirths) and regions (from 29·7 deaths [the south] to 63·8 deaths [the northeast] per 1000 livebirths). Overall, the leading causes of under-5 deaths were preterm birth complications (0·330 million [95% uncertainty range 0·279-0·367]; 27·5% of under-5 deaths), pneumonia (0·191 million [0·168-0·219]; 15·9%), and intrapartum-related events (0·139 million [0·116-0·165]; 11·6%), with cause-of-death distributions varying across states and regions. In states with very high under-5 mortality, infectious-disease-related causes (pneumonia and diarrhoea) were among the three leading causes, whereas the three leading causes were all non-communicable in states with very low mortality. Most states had a slower decline in neonatal mortality than in mortality among children aged 1-59 months. Ten major states must accelerate progress to achieve the SDG under-5 mortality target, while 17 are not on track to meet the neonatal mortality target. INTERPRETATION: Efforts to reduce vaccine-preventable deaths and to reduce geographical disparities should continue to maintain progress achieved in 2000-15. Enhanced policies and programmes are needed to accelerate mortality reduction in high-burden states and among neonates to achieve the SDG child survival targets in India by 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

National, regional, and state-level burden of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b disease in children in India: modelled estimates for 2000-15.

BACKGROUND: India accounts for a disproportionate burden of global childhood illnesses. To inform policies and measure progress towards achieving child health targets, we estimated the annual national and state-specific childhood mortality and morbidity attributable to Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) between 2000 and 2015. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used vaccine clinical trial data to estimate the proportion of pneumonia deaths attributable to pneumococcus and Hib. The proportion of meningitis deaths attributable to each pathogen was derived from pathogen-specific meningitis case fatality and bacterial meningitis case data from surveillance studies. We applied these proportions to modelled state-specific pneumonia and meningitis deaths from 2000 to 2015 prepared by the WHO Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation collaboration (WHO/MCEE) on the basis of verbal autopsy studies from India. The burden of clinical and severe pneumonia cases attributable to pneumococcus and Hib was ascertained with vaccine clinical trial data and state-specific all-cause pneumonia case estimates prepared by WHO/MCEE by use of risk factor prevalence data from India. Pathogen-specific meningitis cases were derived from state-level modelled pathogen-specific meningitis deaths and state-level meningitis case fatality estimates. Pneumococcal and Hib morbidity due to non-pneumonia, non-meningitis (NPNM) invasive syndromes were derived by applying the ratio of pathogen-specific NPNM cases to pathogen-specific meningitis cases to the state-level pathogen-specific meningitis cases. Mortality due to pathogen-specific NPNM was calculated with the ratio of pneumococcal and Hib meningitis case fatality to pneumococcal and Hib meningitis NPNM case fatality. Census data from India provided the population at risk. FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2015, estimates of pneumococcal deaths in Indian children aged 1-59 months fell from 166 000 (uncertainty range [UR] 110 000-198 000) to 68 700 (44 600-86 000), while Hib deaths fell from 82 600 (52 300-112 000) to 15 600 (9800-21 500), representing a 58% (UR 22-78) decline in pneumococcal deaths and an 81% (59-91) decline in Hib deaths. In 2015, national mortality rates in children aged 1-59 months were 56 (UR 37-71) per 100 000 for pneumococcal infection and 13 (UR 8-18) per 100 000 for Hib. Uttar Pradesh (18 900 [UR 12 300-23 600]) and Bihar (8600 [5600-10 700]) had the highest numbers of pneumococcal deaths in 2015. Uttar Pradesh (9300 [UR 5900-12 700]) and Odisha (1100 [700-1500]) had the highest numbers of Hib deaths in 2015. Less conservative assumptions related to the proportion of pneumonia deaths attributable to pneumococcus indicate that as many as 118 000 (UR 69 000-140 000) total pneumococcal deaths could have occurred in 2015 in India. INTERPRETATION: Pneumococcal and Hib mortality have declined in children aged 1-59 months in India since 2000, even before nationwide implementation of conjugate vaccines. Introduction of the Hib vaccine in several states corresponded with a more rapid reduction in morbidity and mortality associated with Hib infection. Rapid scale-up and widespread use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and sustained use of the Hib vaccine could help accelerate achievement of child survival targets in India. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Typhoid Fever: Way Forward.

The Tackling Typhoid supplement shows that typhoid fever continues to be a problem globally despite socioeconomic gains in certain settings. Morbidity remains high in many endemic countries, notably in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In addition, antimicrobial resistance is a growing issue that poses a challenge for clinical management. The findings from this supplement revealed that outside of high-income countries, there were few reliable population-based estimates of typhoid and paratyphoid fever derived from surveillance systems. This indicates the need for monitoring systems that can also characterize the effectiveness of interventions, particularly in low- and middle-income settings. The country case studies indicated that gains in economic conditions, education, and environmental health may be associated with reductions in typhoid fever burden. Over the study period, the effect is mainly notable in countries with higher baseline levels of economic development, female literacy, and investments in public sanitation. High burden countries must continue to invest in strategies at the local level to address environmental factors such as access to safe drinking water and improved public sanitation that are known to interrupt transmission or diminish the risk of acquiring typhoid. Developing more effective vaccines and incorporating appropriate immunization strategies that target populations with the greatest risk could potentially alleviate disease burden.

Geospatial inequalities and determinants of nutritional status among women and children in Afghanistan: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Undernutrition is a pervasive condition in Afghanistan, and prevalence is among the highest in the world. We aimed to comprehensively assess district-level geographical disparities and determinants of nutritional status (stunting, wasting, or underweight) among women and children in Afghanistan. METHODS: The study used individualised data from the recent Afghanistan National Nutrition Survey 2013. Outcome variables were based on growth and weight anthropometry data, which we analysed linearly as Z scores and as dichotomous categories. We analysed data from a total of almost 14 000 index mother-child pairs using Bayesian spatial and generalised least squares regression models accounting for the complex survey design. FINDINGS: We noted that childhood stunting, underweight, and combined stunting and wasting were consistently highest in districts in Farah, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Kunar, Paktia, and Badakhshan provinces. District prevalence ranged from 4% to 84% for childhood stunting and 5% to 66% for underweight. Child wasting exceeded 20% in central and high-conflict regions that bordered Pakistan including east, southeast, and south. Among mothers, dual burden of underweight and overweight or obesity existed in districts of north, northeast, central, and central highlands (prevalence of 15-20%). Linear growth and weight of children were independently associated with household wealth, maternal literacy, maternal anthropometry, child age, food security, geography, and improved hygiene and sanitation conditions. The mother's body-mass index was determined by many of the same factors, in addition to ethnolinguistic status and parity. Younger mothers (<20 years old) were more underweight and shorter than older mothers (aged 20-49 years). INTERPRETATION: Afghanistan's rapidly changing political, socioeconomic, and insecurity landscape has both direct and indirect implications on population nutrition. Novel evidence from our study can be used to understand these multifactorial determinants and to identify granular disparities for local level tracking, planning, and implementation of nutritional interventions. FUNDING: None.