Can severity of a humanitarian crisis be quantified? Assessment of the INFORM severity index.

BACKGROUND: Those responding to humanitarian crises have an ethical imperative to respond most where the need is greatest. Metrics are used to estimate the severity of a given crisis. The INFORM Severity Index, one such metric, has become widely used to guide policy makers in humanitarian response decision making. The index, however, has not undergone critical statistical review. If imprecise or incorrect, the quality of decision making for humanitarian response will be affected. This analysis asks, how precise and how well does this index reflect the severity of conditions for people affected by disaster or war? RESULTS: The INFORM Severity Index is calculated from 35 publicly available indicators, which conceptually reflect the severity of each crisis. We used 172 unique global crises from the INFORM Severity Index database that occurred January 1 to November 30, 2019 or were ongoing by this date. We applied exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to determine common factors within the dataset. We then applied a second-order confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to predict crisis severity as a latent construct. Model fit was assessed via chi-square goodness-of-fit statistic, Comparative Fit Index (CFI), Tucker-Lewis Index (TLI), and Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA). The EFA models suggested a 3- or 4- factor solution, with 46 and 53% variance explained in each model, respectively. The final CFA was parsimonious, containing three factors comprised of 11 indicators, with reasonable model fit (Chi-squared = 107, with 40 degrees of freedom, CFI = 0.94, TLI = 0.92, RMSEA = 0.10). In the second-order CFA, the magnitude of standardized factor-loading on the 'societal governance' latent construct had the strongest association with the latent construct of 'crisis severity' (0.73), followed by the 'humanitarian access/safety' construct (0.56). CONCLUSIONS: A metric of crisis-severity is a critical step towards improving humanitarian response, but only when it reflects real life conditions. Our work is a first step in refining an existing framework to better quantify crisis severity.

Beyond adequate: Factors associated with quality of antenatal care in western Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: To determine quality of antenatal care (ANC). Most literature focuses on ANC attendance and services. Less is known about quality of care (QoC). METHOD: Data were analyzed from the 2016 Kigoma Reproductive Health Survey, a population-based survey of reproductive-aged women. Women with singleton term live births were included and principal component analysis (PCA) was used to create an ANC quality index using linear combinations of weights of the first principal component. Nineteen variables were selected for the index. The index was then used to assign a QoC score for each woman and linear regression used to identify factors associated with receiving higher QoC. RESULTS: A total of 3178 women received some ANC. Variables that explained the most variance in the QoC index included: gave urine (0.35); gave blood (0.34); and blood pressure measured (0.30). In multivariable linear regression, factors associated with higher QoC included: ANC at a hospital (versus dispensary); older age; higher level of education; working outside the home; higher socioeconomic status; and having lower parity. CONCLUSION: Using PCA methods, several basic components of ANC including maternal physical assessment were identified as important indicators of quality. This approach provides an affordable and effective means of evaluating ANC programs.

The burden of non-communicable diseases and their related risk factors in the country of Georgia, 2015.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), mainly cardiovascular diseases, are a substantial cause of mortality in the country of Georgia, accounting for approximately 93% of all deaths (standardized mortality rate 630.7 deaths per 100,000 persons per year) and an important threat to health security. We conducted a nationally representative survey examining the prevalence of NCDs and their risk factors as part of a 2015 Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) serosurvey. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional serosurvey among adults aged ≥18 years using a stratified, multi-stage cluster design (n = 7000). We asked participants standardized questions from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey and the WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance (STEPS) Survey. We also measured blood pressure and Body Mass Index for each participant. Weighted frequencies were computed for NCD and risk factor prevalence and compared to 2010 STEPS results. RESULTS: Georgians reported high rates of smoking, alcohol use, elevated blood pressure, obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. An estimated 27.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 25.3, 28.8%) of adults (51.5% of men and 6.0% of women) reported daily use of tobacco products and 27.5% (95% CI: 25.7, 29.2%) of adults (52.1% of men and 7.0% of women) reported binge drinking within the last 30 days. Physical measurements revealed that 37.5% (95% CI: 35.8, 39.3%) of adults had elevated blood pressure and 33.4% (95% CI: 31.8, 35.0%) had obesity. 5.4% (95% CI: 4.6, 6.2%) of adults had self-reported diagnosed diabetes and 15.3% (95% CI: 14.1, 16.6%) had self-reported diagnosed cardiovascular disease. From 2010 to 2015, the prevalence of obesity increased by 8.3 percentage points (95% CI: 5.9, 10.7%; p < 0.01) and the prevalence of elevated blood pressure increased by 4.1 percentage points (95% CI: 1.4, 6.8%; p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Georgia has a high NCD burden, and results from the survey showed an increase in obesity and elevated blood pressure since 2010. The prevalence of other major NCDs have remained near levels reported in the 2010 STEPs survey. Comprehensive public health interventions are needed to control the heath security threats of major NCDs and their risk factors in the future.

Risk factors for unsafe behaviors toward grenades among rural populations affected by explosive devices in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Following decades of armed conflict, Colombia remains highly affected by explosive device (ED) contamination, especially in rural areas. Many victims are injured by EDs despite knowing their dangers. Determining risk factors for unsafe behaviors toward EDs, including grenades, is critical for preventing injuries. METHODS: In 2012, CDC assisted Colombian partners in conducting a multi-stage knowledge, attitudes, and practices survey in rural ED-affected areas. Within each of 40 clusters, 28 households were selected, and participants aged 10 years or older were asked about behaviors toward EDs. Participants reported actual behaviors toward past EDs encountered and theoretical behaviors toward EDs not encountered. Behaviors were a priori classified as unsafe or safe. This analysis focuses on behaviors toward the most commonly encountered device, grenades. RESULTS: Of 928 adult and 562 child participants, 488 (52.5%) adults and 249 (43.9%) children encountered ED, while 121 (13.7%) adults and 148 (26.9%) children received mine risk education (MRE). Among the 430 (46.7%) adults who encountered grenades, 113 (25.7%) reported unsafe behaviors; multivariable analysis showed that unsafe behavior was associated with working outdoors (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-2.7). Among the 429 (46.5%) adults who did not encounter ED, 61 (14.6%) described unsafe theoretical behaviors toward grenades; multivariable analysis showed that unsafe behavior was associated with older age (aOR: 1.02, 95% confidence limit [CL]: 1.00-1.05) and black or Afro-Colombian identity (aOR: 2.5, 95% CI 1.3-5.1). Among the 181 (32.0%) children who encountered grenades, 41 (23.8%) reported unsafe behaviors, while among the 311 (55.9%) children who did not encounter ED, 30 (10.2%) reported unsafe behavior. In both groups of children, multivariable analysis showed that unsafe behavior was associated with lower mean score on knowledge of ED, with aOR: 0.7, 95% CL: 0.6-0.9, and aOR: 0.8, 95% CL: 0.6-0.98, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Participants reported frequent ED exposure but low receipt of MRE. Our findings should guide MRE improvement in ED-affected areas by strengthening the connection between ED knowledge and avoiding unsafe behavior, with a particular focus on people working outdoors. MRE should promote knowledge of ED risks but should also recognize socioeconomic factors that lead to engaging in unsafe behaviors.

The Effects of an Integrated Community Case Management Strategy on the Appropriate Treatment of Children and Child Mortality in Kono District, Sierra Leone: A Program Evaluation.

Integrated community case management (iCCM) aims to reduce child mortality in areas with poor access to health care. iCCM was implemented in 2009 in Kono district, Sierra Leone, a postconflict area with high under-five mortality rates (U5MRs). We evaluated iCCM's impact and effects on child health using cluster surveys in 2010 (midterm) and 2013 (endline) to compare indicators on child mortality, coverage of appropriate treatment, timely access to care, quality of care, and recognition of community health workers (CHWs). The sample size was powered to detect a 28% decline in U5MR. Clusters were selected proportional to population size. All households were sampled to measure mortality and systematic random sampling was used to measure coverage in a subset of households. We used program data to evaluate utilization and access; 5,257 (2010) and 3,649 (2013) households were surveyed. U5MR did not change significantly (4.54 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.47-5.60] to 3.95 [95% CI: 3.06-4.83] deaths per 1,000 per month (P = 0.4)) though a relative change smaller than 28% could not be detected. CHWs were the first source of care for 52% (2010) and 50.9% (2013) of children. Coverage of appropriate treatment of fever by CHWs or peripheral health units increased from 45.5% [95% CI: 39.2-52.0] to 58.2% [95% CI: 50.5-65.5] (P = 0.01); changes for diarrhea and pneumonia were not significant. The continued reliance on the CHW as the first source of care and improved coverage for the appropriate treatment of fever support iCCM's role in Kono district.

An Investigation into Suicides Among Bhutanese Refugees Resettled in the United States Between 2008 and 2011.

An increase of Bhutanese refugee suicides were reported in the US between 2009 and 2012. This investigation examined these reported suicides in depth to gain a better understanding of factors associated with suicide within this population. The study employed 14 psychological autopsies to elicit underlying motivations and circumstances for self-inflicted death and to identify potential future avenues for prevention and intervention among refugee communities. Disappointment with current (un)employment, lack of resettlement services and social support, and frustrations with separation from family were believed to contribute to suicidal acts. Suicide within refugee populations may be connected with experiences of family withdrawal, integration difficulties, and perceived lack of care. It is important to assess the effectiveness of improving refugee services on the mental health of migrants. More research is needed in order to better understand, and respond to, suicide in resettled populations.

Suicidal Ideation and Mental Health of Bhutanese Refugees in the United States.

Refugee agencies noticed a high number of suicides among Bhutanese refugees resettled in the United States between 2009 and 2012. We aimed to estimate prevalence of mental health conditions and identify factors associated with suicidal ideation among Bhutanese refugees. We conducted a stratified random cross-sectional survey and collected information on demographics, mental health conditions, suicidal ideation, and post-migration difficulties. Bivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify factors associated with suicidal ideation. Prevalence of mental health conditions were: depression (21 %), symptoms of anxiety (19 %), post-traumatic stress disorder (4.5 %), and suicidal ideation (3 %), significant risk factors for suicidal ideation included: not being a provider of the family; perceiving low social support; and having symptoms of anxiety and depression. These findings suggest that Bhutanese refugees in the United States may have a higher burden of mental illness relative to the US population and may benefit from mental health screening and treatment. Refugee communities and service providers may benefit from additional suicide awareness training to identify those at highest risk.

Neonatal survival in complex humanitarian emergencies: setting an evidence-based research agenda.

BACKGROUND: Over 40% of all deaths among children under 5 are neonatal deaths (0-28 days), and this proportion is increasing. In 2012, 2.9 million newborns died, with 99% occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Many of the countries with the highest neonatal mortality rates globally are currently or have recently been affected by complex humanitarian emergencies. Despite the global burden of neonatal morbidity and mortality and risks inherent in complex emergency situations, research investments are not commensurate to burden and little is known about the epidemiology or best practices for neonatal survival in these settings. METHODS: We used the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) methodology to prioritize research questions on neonatal health in complex humanitarian emergencies. Experts evaluated 35 questions using four criteria (answerability, feasibility, relevance, equity) with three subcomponents per criterion. Using SAS 9.2, a research prioritization score (RPS) and average expert agreement score (AEA) were calculated for each question. RESULTS: Twenty-eight experts evaluated all 35 questions. RPS ranged from 0.846 to 0.679 and the AEA ranged from 0.667 to 0.411. The top ten research priorities covered a range of issues but generally fell into two categories- epidemiologic and programmatic components of neonatal health. The highest ranked question in this survey was "What strategies are effective in increasing demand for, and use of skilled attendance?" CONCLUSIONS: In this study, a diverse group of experts used the CHRNI methodology to systematically identify and determine research priorities for neonatal health and survival in complex humanitarian emergencies. The priorities included the need to better understand the magnitude of the disease burden and interventions to improve neonatal health in complex humanitarian emergencies. The findings from this study will provide guidance to researchers and program implementers in neonatal and complex humanitarian fields to engage on the research priorities needed to save lives most at risk.

Sexual violence and its health consequences for female children in Swaziland: a cluster survey study.

BACKGROUND: Despite concern, few studies have been done about sexual violence against girls younger than 18 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa. We report the prevalence and circumstances of sexual violence in girls in Swaziland, and assess the negative health consequences. METHODS: We obtained data from a nationally representative sample of girls and women aged 13-24 years from selected households in Swaziland between May 15, 2007, and June 16, 2007, with a two-stage cluster design. The questionnaire examined demographics, type of sexual violence that took place before the respondent was 18 years of age, circumstances of the incident, and health-related conditions. Information was gathered from 1244 women and girls (response rate 96.3%), of whom 1242 provided retrospective responses to questions about sexual violence. We used regression models adjusted for relevant demographics to estimate the odds ratios for the associations between sexual violence and health-related conditions. FINDINGS: 33.2% (95% CI 29.9-36.7) of respondents reported an incident of sexual violence before they reached 18 years of age. The most common perpetrators of the first incident were men or boys from the respondent's neighbourhood (32.3% [28.8-36.1]) and boyfriends or husbands (26.2% [22.2-30.7]). The first incident most often took place in the respondent's own home (26.1% [21.6-31.2]). Sexual violence was associated with reported lifetime experience of sexually transmitted diseases (adjusted OR 3.69 [95% CI 1.78-7.66]), pregnancy complications or miscarriages (3.54 [1.47-8.55]), unwanted pregnancy (2.92 [1.87-4.55]), and self-report of feeling depressed (2.30 [1.70-3.11]). INTERPRETATION: Knowledge of the high prevalence of sexual violence against girls in Swaziland and its associated serious health-related conditions and behaviours should be used to develop effective prevention strategies. FUNDING: UNICEF.

Epidemiology of gastroenteritis on cruise ships, 2001-2004.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of diarrheal disease among cruise ship passengers declined from 29.2 cases per 100,000 passenger days in 1990 to 16.3 per 100,000 passenger days in 2000. In 2002, the Vessel Sanitation Program of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 29 outbreaks (3% or more passengers ill) of acute gastroenteritis on cruise ships, an increase from 3 the previous year. This analysis of gastroenteritis on cruise ships, conducted in 2005, details the increase in outbreak incidence rates during 2001 through 2004. METHODS: Using Gastrointestinal Illness Surveillance System data, investigators evaluated incidence rates of gastroenteritis on cruise ships calling on U.S. ports, carrying 13 or more passengers, by cruise length and reporting region during the study period. The investigators also evaluated the association between inspection scores, and gastroenteritis incidence and the frequency of outbreaks in 2001 through 2004. RESULTS: During the study period, the background and outbreak-associated incidence rates of passengers with acute gastroenteritis per cruise were 25.6 and 85, respectively. Acute gastroenteritis outbreaks per 1000 cruises increased overall from 0.65 in 2001 to 5.46 in 2004; outbreaks increased from 2 in 2001 to a median of 15 per year in 2002-2004. Median ship inspection scores remained relatively constant during the study period (median 95 on a 100-point scale), and were not significantly associated with either gastroenteritis incidence rates (risk ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.02) or outbreak frequency (Spearman's coefficient, 0.01, p=0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Despite good performance on environment health sanitation inspections by cruise ships, the expectation of passenger cases of gastroenteritis on an average 7-day cruise increased from two cases during 1990-2000 to three cases during the study period. This increase, likely attributable to noroviruses, highlights the inability of environmental programs to fully predict and prevent risk factors common to person-to-person and fomite spread of disease.

Physical activity, sports participation, and suicidal behavior among college students.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the relationship between physical activity, sports participation, and suicidal behavior among college students (N = 4,728). METHODS: Data from the 1995 National College Health Risk Behavior Survey were analyzed. Students were classified as engaging in frequent vigorous activity 6-7 d.wk-1, vigorous activity 3-5 d.wk-1, moderate activity, low activity, or no activity. Sports participation was dichotomized into "yes" or "no" participation. Suicidal behavior was defined as thoughts about, plans for, or attempts at suicide during the 12 months before completing the survey. Data were stratified by sex and multivariable logistic regression modeling, calculated odds ratios (ORs) (adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, Body Mass Index/weight perception, cigarette smoking, episodic heavy alcohol use, drug use, and either activity level or sport participation) for suicidal behavior as associated with physical activity and sports participation. RESULTS: Adjusted ORs show that men in the "low activity" group were at almost half the odds (adjusted OR = 0.54; P < 0.015) of reporting suicidal behavior than men in the "not active" group. Women who engaged in moderate or frequent vigorous activity were at greater odds of reporting suicidal behavior compared with inactive women; OR = 1.76 (P < 0.035) and 1.99 (P < 0.034) respectively. Sports participation was protective against suicidal behavior. Adjusted ORs show that men who did not participate in sports were 2.5 times (P < 0.0003) more likely to report suicidal behavior than men who were sports participants. Women not participating in sports had 1.67 times the odds of reporting suicidal behavior than women sports participants (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Associations were found between sports participation/selected patterns of physical activity and suicidal behavior. Causal factors mediating the relationships need to be identified.