Maternal varicella antibodies in children aged less than one year: Assessment of antibody decay.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate maternal antibody levels to varicella in infants <12 months of age in Ontario, Canada. STUDY DESIGN: In this study, we included specimens from infants <12 months of age, born at ≥37 weeks gestational age, who had sera collected at The Hospital for Sick Children (Toronto, Canada) between 2014-2016. We tested sera using a glycoprotein-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (gpELISA). We measured varicella susceptibility (antibody concentration <150mIU/mL) and mean varicella antibody concentration, and assessed the probability of susceptibility and concentration between one and 11 months of age using multivariable logistic regression and Poisson regression. RESULTS: We found that 32% of 196 included specimens represented infants susceptible to varicella at one month of age, increasing to nearly 80% at three months of age. At six months of age, all infants were susceptible to varicella and the predicted mean varicella antibody concentration declined to 62 mIU/mL (95% confidence interval 40, 84), well below the threshold of protection. CONCLUSIONS: We found that varicella maternal antibody levels wane rapidly in infants, leaving most infants susceptible by four months of age. Our findings have implications for the timing of first dose of varicella-containing vaccine, infection control measures, and infant post-exposure prophylaxis recommendations.

Assessment of population infection with SARS-CoV-2 in Ontario, Canada, March to June 2020.

BackgroundSerosurveys for SARS-CoV-2 aim to estimate the proportion of the population that has been infected.AimThis observational study assesses the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Ontario, Canada during the first pandemic wave.MethodsUsing an orthogonal approach, we tested 8,902 residual specimens from the Public Health Ontario laboratory over three time periods during March-June 2020 and stratified results by age group, sex and region. We adjusted for antibody test sensitivity/specificity and compared with reported PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases.ResultsAdjusted seroprevalence was 0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1-1.5) from 27 March-30 April, 1.5% (95% CI: 0.7-2.2) from 26-31 May, and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.8-1.3) from 5-30 June 2020. Adjusted estimates were highest in individuals aged ≥ 60 years in March-April (1.3%; 95% CI: 0.2-4.6), in those aged 20-59 years in May (2.1%; 95% CI: 0.8-3.4) and in those aged ≥ 60 years in June (1.6%; 95% CI: 1.1-2.1). Regional seroprevalence varied, and was highest for Toronto in March-April (0.9%; 95% CI: 0.1-3.1), for Toronto in May (3.2%; 95% CI: 1.0-5.3) and for Toronto (1.5%; 95% CI: 0.9-2.1) and Central East in June (1.5%; 95% CI: 1.0-2.0). We estimate that COVID-19 cases detected by PCR in Ontario underestimated SARS-CoV-2 infections by a factor of 4.9.ConclusionsOur results indicate low population seroprevalence in Ontario, suggesting that public health measures were effective at limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first pandemic wave.

Assessment of population immunity to measles in Ontario, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study.

Canada eliminated measles in 1998. We conducted a sero-epidemiology study to estimate population immunity to measles in the province of Ontario, Canada and to identify groups at higher risk of outbreaks. We used a previously developed modified enzyme immunoassay to test 1,199 residual sera from patients aged 1-39 years. We re-tested negative and equivocal sera using a plaque reduction neutralization assay. We interpreted our results in the context of Ontario's immunization program and vaccine coverage data. Of 1,199 sera, 1035 (86.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 84.4, 88.2) were above the measles threshold for protection, 70 (5.8%, 95% CI 4.5, 7.2) were equivocal and 94 (7.8%, 95% CI 6.3, 9.4) were negative. The proportion of positive sera was highest for those 1-5 years, with 180/199 (90.5%, 95% CI 86.4, 94.5) positive sera, and lowest for those age 12-19 years, at 158/199 (79.4%, 95% CI 73.8, 85.0). Adjusted for age, females were more likely than males to have antibody titers above the threshold of protection (odds ratio = 1.60, 95% CI 1.14, 2.24). Most of the study cohort were eligible for two measles vaccine doses, and vaccine uptake in Ontario is >90% for school-aged cohorts. We observed a higher than expected proportion of sera with antibody levels below the threshold of protection, suggesting that immunity in some Ontario age-groups may be waning, despite high vaccine coverage. Alternatively, the traditional measles correlates of protection may not be an appropriate measure of population protection in measles-eliminated settings.

Equity and impact: Ontario's infant rotavirus immunization program five years following implementation. A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Ontario implemented a publicly-funded rotavirus (RV) immunization program in 2011. Our objectives were to evaluate its impact on hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) five years after implementation. METHODS: We performed a population-based longitudinal retrospective cohort study to identify hospitalizations and ED visits for RV-AGE and overall AGE in all age groups using ICD-10 codes between August 1, 2005 and March 31, 2016. A negative binomial regression model that included the effect of time was used to calculate rates, rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for AGE before and after the program's implementation, after adjusting for age, seasonality and secular trends. We examined the seasonality of RV-AGE hospitalizations among children under five before and after the program and explored its equity impact. RESULTS: Following program implementation, RV-AGE hospitalizations and ED visits among children under five years declined by 76% (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.20-0.28) and 68% (RR 0.32, 95% CI 0.21-0.50), respectively. In addition, hospitalizations and ED visits for overall AGE declined by 38% (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.59-0.65) and 26% (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.73-0.76), respectively, among children under age five. Significant reductions in both outcomes were also found across a range of age-strata. In the pre-program period, the mean monthly hospitalization rate for RV-AGE among children residing in the most marginalized neighbourhoods was 33% higher than those residing in the least marginalized (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.17-1.52), this disparity was not evident in the program period (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.69-1.32). We found no evidence of a seasonal shift in rotavirus pediatric hospitalizations. INTERPRETATION: The introduction of routine infant rotavirus immunization has had a substantial population impact in Ontario. Our study confirms herd effects and suggests the program may have reduced previous inequities in the burden of pediatric rotavirus hospitalizations.

HCV core antigen as an alternative to HCV RNA testing in the era of direct-acting antivirals: retrospective screening and diagnostic cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Direct-acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C (HCV) infection have reduced the need for on-treatment HCV RNA monitoring. We assessed the accuracy and cost implications of using HCV core antigen testing to replace HCV RNA testing for confirmation of diagnosis, on-treatment monitoring, and determination of sustained virological response (SVR). METHODS: In a retrospective screening cohort study, de-identified residual serum from unselected samples were obtained from commercial laboratories in Ontario, Canada. Samples from each 5-year age-sex band from birth years 1945-74 collected from Aug 1, 2014, to Feb 28, 2015, were included. All samples that tested positive for HCV antibodies, and 10% of samples that tested negative for HCV antibodies, were tested for HCV core antigen and HCV RNA. A retrospective clinical cohort study was also done using blood samples from patients with confirmed HCV infection collected at four tertiary academic centres: one in Canada, two in Germany, and one in the USA. For assessment of SVR, we included samples from patients who started direct-acting antiviral-based treatment (excluding telaprevir and boceprevir) with or without peginterferon, ribavirin, or both, from Jan 1, 2014, to March 31, 2015. To ensure inclusion of adequate numbers for analysis, patients who relapsed after any treatment regimen were included. Serum samples included in the study were from baseline, week 4 on-treatment (only for patients treated with direct-acting antivirals), end of treatment, and week 12 or 24 of follow-up. The sensitivity and specificity of core antigen testing as a diagnostic tool was assessed in the screening cohort, using HCV RNA as a reference. The sensitivity and specificity of core antigen testing as well as its concordance with HCV RNA testing in the clinical cohort was assessed at baseline, week 4 on-treatment, and at weeks 12 or 24 after the end of treatment in patients undergoing therapy with direct-acting antivirals. The cost-effectiveness of core antigen testing with and without confirmatory HCV RNA testing for negative samples was also assessed. FINDINGS: From 10 006 samples in the screening cohort, 75 of 80 viraemic (HCV RNA-positive) samples tested positive for HCV core antigen (sensitivity 94%, 95% CI 86-98), and none of the 993 HCV RNA-negative samples tested positive for HCV core antigen (specificity 100%, 95% CI 94-100). The five viraemic samples that tested negative for HCV core antigen had low corresponding HCV RNA concentrations. In the clinical cohort, two (1%) of 202 baseline samples tested negative for HCV core antigen; one had a low HCV RNA concentration (468 IU/mL), the other had a high HCV RNA concentration (>2 000 000 IU/mL). By week 4 of treatment, HCV core antigen concentrations decreased in all patients but were not predictive of SVR. Although there was good concordance between HCV RNA and HCV core antigen results at 12 weeks after the end of treatment (r=0·97; p<0·0001), three of the 148 patients who achieved SVR at 12 weeks tested HCV core antigen positive. 12 weeks after the end of treatment, HCV core antigen was undetectable in one (1%) of 71 samples from patients who were identified as having relapsed according to HCV RNA detection. On-treatment and end-of-treatment testing of core antigen or HCV RNA provided little clinical value. The use of HCV core antigen testing as a confirmatory diagnostic strategy was cost saving relative to HCV RNA testing, with a reduction of CAD$0·29-3·70 per patient screened depending on whether HCV RNA testing was used to confirm HCV core antigen-negative results. INTERPRETATION: These data support the use of HCV core antigen testing to document HCV viraemia in a cost-saving diagnostic algorithm. In a treatment setting, HCV core antigen testing can be used instead of HCV RNA testing for diagnosis and documentation of treatment adherence, but it might not be adequate to determine SVR. This approach might improve access to care, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: Abbott Diagnostics and Toronto Centre for Liver Disease.

Population-Level Impact of Ontario's Infant Rotavirus Immunization Program: Evidence of Direct and Indirect Effects.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the direct and indirect population impact of rotavirus (RV) immunization on hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in Ontario before and after the publicly-funded RV immunization program. METHODS: Administrative data was used to identify ED visits and hospitalizations for all Ontarians using ICD-10 codes. We used two outcome definitions: RV-specific AGE (RV-AGE) and codes representing RV-, other viral and cause unspecified AGE ("overall AGE"). The pre-program and public program periods were August 1, 2005 to July 31, 2011; and August 1, 2011 to March 31, 2013, respectively. A negative binominal regression model that included the effect of time was used to calculate rates and rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for RV-AGE and overall AGE between periods, after adjusting for age, seasonality and secular trends. Analyses were conducted for all ages combined and age stratified. RESULTS: Relative to the pre-program period, the adjusted RRs for RV-AGE and overall AGE hospitalizations in the public program period were 0.29 (95%CI: 0.22-0.39) and 0.68 (95%CI: 0.62-0.75), respectively. Significant reductions in RV-AGE hospitalizations were noted overall and for the following age bands: < 12 months, 12-23 months, 24-35 months, 3-4 years, and 5-19 years. Significant declines in overall AGE hospitalizations were observed across all age bands, including older adults > = 65 years (RR 0.80, 95%CI: 0.72-0.90). The program was associated with adjusted RRs of 0.32 (95% CI: 0.20-0.52) for RV-AGE ED visits and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96) for overall AGE ED visits. CONCLUSIONS: This large, population-based study provides evidence of the impact of RV vaccine in preventing hospitalizations and ED visits for RV-AGE and overall AGE, including herd effects.

How and why researchers use the number needed to vaccinate to inform decision making--a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The number needed to vaccinate (NNV) is a measure that has been widely used in the scientific literature to draw conclusions about the usefulness and cost-effectiveness of various immunization programmes. The main objective of this review is to examine how and why the NNV has been used and reported in the published literature. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched and records were screened against the eligibility criteria by two independent authors. We included papers that reported and interpreted NNV. RESULTS: We identified 27 studies, the designs including observational studies, economic analyses, systematic reviews, and commentaries. The NNV has been used in the literature to describe three main themes: potential benefits of vaccination programmes, cost-effectiveness, and economic analyses, and modelling studies to compare different vaccination strategies. CONCLUSIONS: NNV has been used in a wide variety of ways in the literature, yet there are no defined thresholds for what is a favourable NNV. Furthermore, the generalizability of the NNV is usually limited. Further work is required to determine the most appropriate use of this measure.

Increased incidence of tuberculosis in zimbabwe, in association with food insecurity, and economic collapse: an ecological analysis.

BACKGROUND: Zimbabwe underwent a socioeconomic crisis and resultant increase in food insecurity in 2008-9. The impact of the crisis on Tuberculosis (TB) incidence is unknown. METHODS: Prospective databases from two mission hospitals, which were geographically widely separated, and remained open during the crisis, were reviewed. RESULTS: At the Howard Hospital (HH) in northern Zimbabwe, TB incidence increased 35% in 2008 from baseline rates in 2003-2007 (p<0.01) and remained at that level in 2009. Murambinda Hospital (MH) in Eastern Zimbabwe also demonstrated a 29% rise in TB incidence from 2007 to 2008 (p<0.01) and remained at that level in 2009. Data collected post-crisis at HH showed a decrease of 33% in TB incidence between 2009 to 2010 (p<0.001) and 2010/2011 TB incidence remained below that of the crisis years of 2008/2009 (p<0.01). Antenatal clinic HIV seroprevalence at HH decreased between 2001(23%) to 2011(11%) (p<0.001). Seasonality of TB incidence was analyzed at both MH and HH. There was a higher TB incidence in the dry season when food is least available (September-November) compared to post harvest (April-June) (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that an epidemic of TB mirrored socioeconomic collapse and recovery in Zimbabwe. The seasonal data suggests that food security may have been associated with TB incidence both annually and during the crisis in this high HIV prevalence country.

Highly active anti-retroviral therapy in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in rural Zimbabwe during the socio-economic crisis.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in preventing mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV in breastfeeding women in rural Zimbabwe. During a severe socio-economic crisis in 2005-2007, 82 eligible HIV-positive pregnant women between 14-36 weeks gestation were initiated on HAART with AZT/3TC/nelfinavir combination therapy at a rural hospital and continued through to six months post-partum. In addition, mothers also received intrapartum single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP). Infants received sdNVP/AZT in the first 72 hours and were assessed for HIV infection at six weeks of age. Results were compared to historical controls of HIV-positive pregnant women who received sdNVP only at the same center. Of the 67 infants with available data on HIV status at six weeks postpartum, three (4.4%) were HIV positive by HIV RNA assay in the HAART + sdNVP group compared to 49/297 (16.5%) in the sdNVP group (p = 0.01). HAART given to HIV-infected mothers in pregnancy and during breastfeeding along with intrapartum sdNVP resulted in a lower postnatal HIV transmission at six weeks postpartum compared to sdNVP treatment. Our HAART regimen demonstrates that PMTCT of HIV can be effective even during times of socioeconomic crisis in resource-poor rural settings.