A MELD-based model to determine risk of mortality among patients with acute variceal bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) have high mortality rates (15%-20%). Previously described models are seldom used to determine prognoses of these patients, partially because they have not been validated externally and because they include subjective variables, such as bleeding during endoscopy and Child-Pugh score, which are evaluated inconsistently. We aimed to improve determination of risk for patients with AVB. METHODS: We analyzed data collected from 178 patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh scores of A, B, and C: 15%, 57%, and 28%, respectively) and esophageal AVB who received standard therapy from 2007 through 2010. We tested the performance (discrimination and calibration) of previously described models, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and developed a new MELD calibration to predict the mortality of patients within 6 weeks of presentation with AVB. MELD-based predictions were validated in cohorts of patients from Canada (n = 240) and Spain (n = 221). RESULTS: Among study subjects, the 6-week mortality rate was 16%. MELD was the best model in terms of discrimination; it was recalibrated to predict the 6-week mortality rate with logistic regression (logit, -5.312 + 0.207 • MELD; bootstrapped R(2), 0.3295). MELD values of 19 or greater predicted 20% or greater mortality, whereas MELD scores less than 11 predicted less than 5% mortality. The model performed well for patients from Canada at all risk levels. In the Spanish validation set, in which all patients were treated with banding ligation, MELD predictions were accurate up to the 20% risk threshold. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a MELD-based model that accurately predicts mortality among patients with AVB, based on objective variables available at admission. This model could be useful to evaluate the efficacy of new therapies and stratify patients in randomized trials.

TIPS versus drug therapy in preventing variceal rebleeding in advanced cirrhosis: a randomized controlled trial.

Prevention of variceal rebleeding is mandatory in cirrhotic patients. We compared the efficacy, safety, and cost of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) versus pharmacologic therapy in preventing variceal rebleeding in patients with advanced cirrhosis. A total of 91 Child-Pugh class B/C cirrhotic patients surviving their first episode of variceal bleeding were randomized to receive TIPS (n = 47) or drug therapy (propranolol + isosorbide-5-mononitrate) (n = 44) to prevent variceal rebleeding. Mean follow-up was 15 months. Rebleeding occurred in 6 (13%) TIPS-treated patients versus 17 (39%) drug-treated patients (P =.007). The 2-year rebleeding probability was 13% versus 49% (P =.01). A similar number of reinterventions were required in the 2 groups; these were mainly angioplasty +/- restenting in the TIPS group (90 of 98) and endoscopic therapy for rebleeding in the medical group (45 of 62) (not significant). Encephalopathy was more frequent in TIPS than in drug-treated patients (38% vs. 14%, P =.007). Child-Pugh class improved more frequently in drug-treated than in TIPS-treated patients (72% vs. 45%; P =.04). The 2-year survival probability was identical (72%). The identified cost of therapy was double for TIPS-treated patients. In summary, medical therapy was less effective than TIPS in preventing rebleeding. However, it caused less encephalopathy, identical survival, and more frequent improvement in Child-Pugh class with lower costs than TIPS in high-risk cirrhotic patients. This suggests that TIPS should not be used as a first-line treatment, but as a rescue for failures of medical/endoscopic treatments (first-option therapies).