Critical assessment of variant prioritization methods for rare disease diagnosis within the rare genomes project.

BACKGROUND: A major obstacle faced by families with rare diseases is obtaining a genetic diagnosis. The average "diagnostic odyssey" lasts over five years and causal variants are identified in under 50%, even when capturing variants genome-wide. To aid in the interpretation and prioritization of the vast number of variants detected, computational methods are proliferating. Knowing which tools are most effective remains unclear. To evaluate the performance of computational methods, and to encourage innovation in method development, we designed a Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) community challenge to place variant prioritization models head-to-head in a real-life clinical diagnostic setting. METHODS: We utilized genome sequencing (GS) data from families sequenced in the Rare Genomes Project (RGP), a direct-to-participant research study on the utility of GS for rare disease diagnosis and gene discovery. Challenge predictors were provided with a dataset of variant calls and phenotype terms from 175 RGP individuals (65 families), including 35 solved training set families with causal variants specified, and 30 unlabeled test set families (14 solved, 16 unsolved). We tasked teams to identify causal variants in as many families as possible. Predictors submitted variant predictions with estimated probability of causal relationship (EPCR) values. Model performance was determined by two metrics, a weighted score based on the rank position of causal variants, and the maximum F-measure, based on precision and recall of causal variants across all EPCR values. RESULTS: Sixteen teams submitted predictions from 52 models, some with manual review incorporated. Top performers recalled causal variants in up to 13 of 14 solved families within the top 5 ranked variants. Newly discovered diagnostic variants were returned to two previously unsolved families following confirmatory RNA sequencing, and two novel disease gene candidates were entered into Matchmaker Exchange. In one example, RNA sequencing demonstrated aberrant splicing due to a deep intronic indel in ASNS, identified in trans with a frameshift variant in an unsolved proband with phenotypes consistent with asparagine synthetase deficiency. CONCLUSIONS: Model methodology and performance was highly variable. Models weighing call quality, allele frequency, predicted deleteriousness, segregation, and phenotype were effective in identifying causal variants, and models open to phenotype expansion and non-coding variants were able to capture more difficult diagnoses and discover new diagnoses. Overall, computational models can significantly aid variant prioritization. For use in diagnostics, detailed review and conservative assessment of prioritized variants against established criteria is needed.

CAGI6 ID-Challenge: Assessment of phenotype and variant predictions in 415 children with Neurodevelopmental Disorders (NDDs).

In the context of the Critical Assessment of the Genome Interpretation, 6th edition (CAGI6), the Genetics of Neurodevelopmental Disorders Lab in Padua proposed a new ID-challenge to give the opportunity of developing computational methods for predicting patient's phenotype and the causal variants. Eight research teams and 30 models had access to the phenotype details and real genetic data, based on the sequences of 74 genes (VCF format) in 415 pediatric patients affected by Neurodevelopmental Disorders (NDDs). NDDs are clinically and genetically heterogeneous conditions, with onset in infant age. In this study we evaluate the ability and accuracy of computational methods to predict comorbid phenotypes based on clinical features described in each patient and causal variants. Finally, we asked to develop a method to find new possible genetic causes for patients without a genetic diagnosis. As already done for the CAGI5, seven clinical features (ID, ASD, ataxia, epilepsy, microcephaly, macrocephaly, hypotonia), and variants (causative, putative pathogenic and contributing factors) were provided. Considering the overall clinical manifestation of our cohort, we give out the variant data and phenotypic traits of the 150 patients from CAGI5 ID-Challenge as training and validation for the prediction methods development.

Critical assessment of variant prioritization methods for rare disease diagnosis within the Rare Genomes Project.

Background: A major obstacle faced by rare disease families is obtaining a genetic diagnosis. The average "diagnostic odyssey" lasts over five years, and causal variants are identified in under 50%. The Rare Genomes Project (RGP) is a direct-to-participant research study on the utility of genome sequencing (GS) for diagnosis and gene discovery. Families are consented for sharing of sequence and phenotype data with researchers, allowing development of a Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) community challenge, placing variant prioritization models head-to-head in a real-life clinical diagnostic setting. Methods: Predictors were provided a dataset of phenotype terms and variant calls from GS of 175 RGP individuals (65 families), including 35 solved training set families, with causal variants specified, and 30 test set families (14 solved, 16 unsolved). The challenge tasked teams with identifying the causal variants in as many test set families as possible. Ranked variant predictions were submitted with estimated probability of causal relationship (EPCR) values. Model performance was determined by two metrics, a weighted score based on rank position of true positive causal variants and maximum F-measure, based on precision and recall of causal variants across EPCR thresholds. Results: Sixteen teams submitted predictions from 52 models, some with manual review incorporated. Top performing teams recalled the causal variants in up to 13 of 14 solved families by prioritizing high quality variant calls that were rare, predicted deleterious, segregating correctly, and consistent with reported phenotype. In unsolved families, newly discovered diagnostic variants were returned to two families following confirmatory RNA sequencing, and two prioritized novel disease gene candidates were entered into Matchmaker Exchange. In one example, RNA sequencing demonstrated aberrant splicing due to a deep intronic indel in ASNS, identified in trans with a frameshift variant, in an unsolved proband with phenotype overlap with asparagine synthetase deficiency. Conclusions: By objective assessment of variant predictions, we provide insights into current state-of-the-art algorithms and platforms for genome sequencing analysis for rare disease diagnosis and explore areas for future optimization. Identification of diagnostic variants in unsolved families promotes synergy between researchers with clinical and computational expertise as a means of advancing the field of clinical genome interpretation.

Predicting venous thromboembolism risk from exomes in the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) challenges.

Genetics play a key role in venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk, however established risk factors in European populations do not translate to individuals of African descent because of the differences in allele frequencies between populations. As part of the fifth iteration of the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation, participants were asked to predict VTE status in exome data from African American subjects. Participants were provided with 103 unlabeled exomes from patients treated with warfarin for non-VTE causes or VTE and asked to predict which disease each subject had been treated for. Given the lack of training data, many participants opted to use unsupervised machine learning methods, clustering the exomes by variation in genes known to be associated with VTE. The best performing method using only VTE related genes achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.65. Here, we discuss the range of methods used in the prediction of VTE from sequence data and explore some of the difficulties of conducting a challenge with known confounders. In addition, we show that an existing genetic risk score for VTE that was developed in European subjects works well in African Americans.

Working toward precision medicine: Predicting phenotypes from exomes in the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) challenges.

Precision medicine aims to predict a patient's disease risk and best therapeutic options by using that individual's genetic sequencing data. The Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) is a community experiment consisting of genotype-phenotype prediction challenges; participants build models, undergo assessment, and share key findings. For CAGI 4, three challenges involved using exome-sequencing data: Crohn's disease, bipolar disorder, and warfarin dosing. Previous CAGI challenges included prior versions of the Crohn's disease challenge. Here, we discuss the range of techniques used for phenotype prediction as well as the methods used for assessing predictive models. Additionally, we outline some of the difficulties associated with making predictions and evaluating them. The lessons learned from the exome challenges can be applied to both research and clinical efforts to improve phenotype prediction from genotype. In addition, these challenges serve as a vehicle for sharing clinical and research exome data in a secure manner with scientists who have a broad range of expertise, contributing to a collaborative effort to advance our understanding of genotype-phenotype relationships.