Patterns of Morbidity Across the Lifespan: A Population Segmentation Framework for Classifying Health Care Needs for All Ages.

BACKGROUND: Classification systems to segment such patients into subgroups for purposes of care management and population analytics should balance administrative simplicity with clinical meaning and measurement precision. OBJECTIVE: To describe and empirically apply a new clinically relevant population segmentation framework applicable to all payers and all ages across the lifespan. RESEARCH DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: Cross-sectional analyses using insurance claims database for 3.31 Million commercially insured and 1.05 Million Medicaid enrollees under 65 years old; and 5.27 Million Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 and older. MEASURES: The "Patient Need Groups" (PNGs) framework, we developed, classifies each person within the entire 0-100+ aged population into one of 11 mutually exclusive need-based categories. For each PNG segment, we documented a range of clinical and resource endpoints, including health care resource use, avoidable emergency department visits, hospitalizations, behavioral health conditions, and social need factors. RESULTS: The PNG categories included: (1) nonuser, (2) low-need child, (3) low-need adult, (4) low-complexity multimorbidity, (5) medium-complexity multimorbidity, (6) low-complexity pregnancy, (7) high-complexity pregnancy, (8) dominant psychiatric/behavioral condition, (9) dominant major chronic condition, (10) high-complexity multimorbidity, and (11) frailty. Each PNG evidenced a characteristic age-related trajectory across the full lifespan. In addition to offering clinically cogent groupings, large percentages (29%-62%) of patients in two pregnancy and high-complexity multimorbidity and frailty PNGs were in a high-risk subgroup (upper 10%) of potential future health care utilization. CONCLUSIONS: The PNG population segmentation approach represents a comprehensive measurement framework that captures and categorizes available electronic health care data to characterize individuals of all ages based on their needs.

Incremental Health Care Costs of Self-Reported Functional Impairments and Phenotypic Frailty in Community-Dwelling Older Adults : A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Health care systems need better strategies to identify older adults at risk for costly care to select target populations for interventions to reduce health care burden. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether self-reported functional impairments and phenotypic frailty are associated with incremental health care costs after accounting for claims-based predictors. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Index examinations (2002 to 2011) of 4 prospective cohort studies linked with Medicare claims. PARTICIPANTS: 8165 community-dwelling fee-for-service beneficiaries (4318 women, 3847 men). MEASUREMENTS: Weighted (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Category index) and unweighted (count of conditions) multimorbidity and frailty indicators derived from claims. Self-reported functional impairments (difficulty performing 4 activities of daily living) and frailty phenotype (operationalized using 5 components) derived from cohort data. Health care costs ascertained for 36 months after index examinations. RESULTS: Average annualized costs (2020 U.S. dollars) were $13 906 among women and $14 598 among men. After accounting for claims-based indicators, average incremental costs of functional impairments versus no impairment in women (men) were $3328 ($2354) for 1 impairment increasing to $7330 ($11 760) for 4 impairments; average incremental costs of phenotypic frailty versus robust in women (men) were $8532 ($6172). Mean predicted costs adjusted for claims-based indicators in women (men) varied by both functional impairments and the frailty phenotype ranging from $8124 ($11 831) among robust persons without impairments to $18 792 ($24 713) among frail persons with 4 impairments. Compared with the model with claims-derived indicators alone, this model resulted in more accurate cost prediction for persons with multiple impairments or phenotypic frailty. LIMITATION: Cost data limited to participants enrolled in the Medicare fee-for-service program. CONCLUSION: Self-reported functional impairments and phenotypic frailty are associated with higher subsequent health care expenditures in community-dwelling beneficiaries after accounting for several claims-based indicators of costs. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

SHARING Choices: Lessons Learned from a Primary-Care Focused Advance Care Planning Intervention.

BACKGROUND: Few advance care planning (ACP) interventions have been scaled in primary care. PROBLEM: Best practices for delivering ACP at scale in primary care do not exist and prior efforts have excluded older adults with Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (ADRD). INTERVENTION: SHARING Choices (NCT#04819191) is a multicomponent cluster-randomized pragmatic trial conducted at 55 primary care practices from two care delivery systems in the Mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. We describe the process of implementing SHARING Choices within 19 practices randomized to the intervention, summarize fidelity to planned implementation, and discuss lessons learned. OUTCOMES: Embedding SHARING Choices involved engagement with organizational and clinic-level partners. Of 23,220 candidate patients, 17,931 outreach attempts by phone (77.9%) and the patient portal (22.1%) were made by ACP facilitators and 1215 conversations occurred. Most conversations (94.8%) were less than 45 minutes duration. Just 13.1% of ACP conversations included family. Patients with ADRD comprised a small proportion of patients who engaged in ACP. Implementation adaptations included transitioning to remote modalities, aligning ACP outreach with the Medicare Annual Wellness Visit, accommodating primary care practice flexibility. LESSONS LEARNED: Study findings reinforce the value of adaptable study design; co-designing workflow adaptations with practice staff; adapting implementation processes to fit the unique needs of two health systems; and modifying efforts to meet health system goals and priorities.

Breast and prostate cancer screening rates by cognitive status in US older adults.

INTRODUCTION: For most older adults with dementia, the short-term harms and burdens of routine cancer screening likely outweigh the delayed benefits. We aimed to provide a more updated assessment of the extent that US older adults with dementia receive breast and prostate cancer screenings. METHODS: Using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) Wave 12 (2014-2015) linked to Medicare, we examine rates of breast and prostate cancer screenings in adults 65+ years by cognitive status. We used claims data to identify eligibility for screening and receipt of screening. We used a validated method using HRS data to define cognitive status. RESULTS: The analytic sample included 2439 women in the breast cancer screening cohort and 1846 men in the prostate cancer screening cohort. Average ages were 76.8 years for women and 75.6 years for men, with 9.0% and 7.6% with dementia in each cohort, respectively. Among women with dementia, 12.3% were screened for breast cancer. When stratified by age, 10.6% of those 75+ and have dementia were screened for breast cancer. When stratified by predicted life expectancy, 10.4% of those with predicted life expectancy of <10 years and have dementia were screened for breast cancer. Among men with dementia, 33.9% were screened for prostate cancer. When stratified by age, 30.9% of those 75+ and have dementia were screened for prostate cancer. When stratified by predicted life expectancy, 34.4% of those with predicted life expectancy of <10 years and have dementia were screened for prostate cancer. Using multivariable logistic regression, dementia was associated with lower odds of receiving breast cancer screening (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.23-0.57) and prostate cancer screening (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.36-0.96). DISCUSSION: Our results suggest potential over-screening in older adults with dementia. Better supporting dementia patients and caregivers to make informed cancer screening decisions is critical.

Social isolation and 9-year dementia risk in community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Social isolation can influence whether older adults develop dementia. We examine the association between social isolation and incident dementia among older adults in a nationally representative sample of community dwelling older adults in the United States (U.S.). We also investigate whether this association varies by race and ethnicity. METHODS: Data (N = 5022) come from the National Health and Aging Trends Study, a longitudinal and nationally representative cohort of older adults in the U.S. A composite measure of social isolation was used to classify older adults as socially isolated or not socially isolated at baseline. Demographic and health factors were measured at baseline via self-report. Dementia was measured at each round of data collection. Discrete-time proportional hazard time-to-event models were used to assess the association between social isolation and incident dementia over 9 years (2011-2020). RESULTS: Of 5022 older adults, 1172 (23.3%) were socially isolated, and 3850 (76.7%) were not socially isolated. Adjusting for demographic and health factors, being socially isolated (vs. not socially isolated) was associated with a 1.28 (95% CI: 1.10-1.49) higher hazard of incident dementia over 9 years. There was no statistically significant difference by race and ethnicity. CONCLUSION: Social isolation among older adults is associated with greater dementia risk. Elucidating the pathway by which social isolation impacts dementia may offer meaningful insights for the development of novel solutions to prevent or ameliorate dementia across diverse racial and ethnic groups.

Incidence of and predictors for antiseizure medication gaps in Medicare beneficiaries with epilepsy: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: For the two-thirds of patients with epilepsy who achieve seizure remission on antiseizure medications (ASMs), patients and clinicians must weigh the pros and cons of long-term ASM treatment. However, little work has evaluated how often ASM discontinuation occurs in practice. We describe the incidence of and predictors for sustained ASM fill gaps to measure discontinuation in individuals potentially eligible for ASM withdrawal. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort of Medicare beneficiaries. We included patients with epilepsy by requiring International Classification of Diseases codes for epilepsy/convulsions plus at least one ASM prescription each year 2014-2016, and no acute visit for epilepsy 2014-2015 (i.e., potentially eligible for ASM discontinuation). The main outcome was the first day of a gap in ASM supply (30, 90, 180, or 360 days with no pills) in 2016-2018. We displayed cumulative incidence functions and identified predictors using Cox regressions. RESULTS: Among 21,819 beneficiaries, 5191 (24%) had a 30-day gap, 1753 (8%) had a 90-day gap, 803 (4%) had a 180-day gap, and 381 (2%) had a 360-day gap. Predictors increasing the chance of a 180-day gap included number of unique medications in 2015 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.03 per medication, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.05) and epileptologist prescribing physician (≥25% of that physician's visits for epilepsy; HR 2.37, 95% CI 1.39-4.03). Predictors decreasing the chance of a 180-day gap included Medicaid dual eligibility (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.60-0.95), number of unique ASMs in 2015 (e.g., 2 versus 1: HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.30-0.45), and greater baseline adherence (> 80% versus ≤80% of days in 2015 with ASM pill supply: HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.32-0.44). CONCLUSIONS: Sustained ASM gaps were rarer than current guidelines may suggest. Future work should further explore barriers and enablers of ASM discontinuation to understand the optimal discontinuation rate.

Getting under the skin: Social isolation and biological markers in the National Health and Aging Trends Study.

BACKGROUND: Social isolation is a risk factor for morbidity and mortality comparable to well-established risk factors including smoking, hypertension, and a sedentary lifestyle. The specific biological mechanisms that connect social isolation to morbidity and mortality remain unclear. Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are biological markers that are upregulated during inflammation and can have long-term negative consequences for the health of individuals as they age. METHODS: Utilizing Round 7 (2017) data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), we examine the relationship between social isolation and two biological markers: IL-6 and high-sensitivity CRP. This study included a nationally representative sample of 4648 Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older who provided samples using dried blood spot (DBS) techniques. We defined social isolation utilizing a multi-domained typology that considers living arrangement, core discussion network, religious attendance, and social participation. IL-6 and CRP were obtained via DBS that were collected in Round 7 of the NHATS. We performed linear regression to examine the association between social isolation and biological markers IL-6 and CRP. RESULTS: After adjusting for age, gender, race/ethnicity, income, tobacco use, body mass index, and chronic conditions, we found that severe social isolation and social isolation were significantly associated with higher levels of IL-6 and CRP values among older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Social isolation is associated with higher levels of biological markers (IL-6 and CRP). Our findings inform the pathway between social isolation and morbidity and mortality among older adults. IL-6 or CRP could be a proximal outcome measures for future clinical and social interventions that seek to alter the trajectory of social isolation and its associated health outcomes.

Life expectancy estimates based on comorbidities and frailty to inform preventive care.

BACKGROUND: Long-term prognostication is important to inform preventive care in older adults. Existing prediction indices incorporate age and comorbidities. Frailty is another important factor in prognostication. In this project, we aimed at developing life expectancy estimates that incorporate both comorbidities and frailty. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used data from a 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries with and without history of cancer from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry areas. We included adults aged 66-95 years who were continuously enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare for ≥1 year from 1998 to 2014. Participants were followed for survival until 12/31/2015, death, or disenrollment. Comorbidity (none, low/medium, high) and frailty categories (low, high) were defined using established methods for claims. We estimated 5- and 10-year survival probabilities and median life expectancies by age, sex, comorbidities, and frailty. RESULTS: The study included 479,646 individuals (4,128,316 person-years), of whom most were women (58.7%). Frailty scores varied widely among participants in the same comorbidity category. In Cox models, both comorbidities and frailty were independent predictors of mortality. Individuals with high comorbidities (HR, 3.24; 95% CI, 3.20-3.28) and low/medium comorbidities (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.34-1.39) had higher risks of death than those with no comorbidities. Compared to low frailty, high frailty was associated with higher risk of death (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.52-1.58). Frailty affected life expectancy estimates in ways relevant to preventive care (i.e., distinguishing <10-year versus >10-year life expectancy) in multiple subgroups. CONCLUSION: Incorporating both comorbidities and frailty may be important in estimating long-term life expectancies of older adults. Our life expectancy tables can aid clinicians' prognostication and inform simulation models and population health management.

Effects of screening for geriatric conditions and advance care planning at the Medicare Annual Wellness Visit.

BACKGROUND: The Medicare Annual Wellness Visit (AWV) requires screening for geriatrics conditions and can include advance care planning (ACP). We examined (1) the prevalence of positive screens for falls, cognitive impairment, and activities of daily living (ADL) impairment, (2) referrals/orders generated potentially in response, and (3) the increase in ACP among those with two AWVs. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis, we used electronic medical record data from a Mid-Atlantic group ambulatory practice. We included adults age > 65 who had ≥1 AWV (n = 16,176) in years 2014-2017. Analyses on high-risk prescribing were limited to those (n = 13,537) with ≥3 months of follow up and ACP to those (n = 9097) with two AWVs. We used responses from the AWV health risk questionnaire to identify screening status for falls, cognitive and ADL impairment and whether an older adult had an ACP. For each screen we identified orders/referrals placed potentially in response (e.g., physical therapy for falls). High-risk medications were based on the 2019 Beers Criteria. RESULTS: Positive screening rates were 38% for falls, 23% for cognition, and 32% for ADL impairment. The adjusted odds of having an order placed potentially in response to the screening were 1.8 (95% CI 1.6-2.0) for falls, 1.4 (1.3-1.7) for cognition, 2.8 (2.4-3.3) for ADL impairment. The adjusted odds of a high-risk prescription in the 3 months after a positive screen were 2.1 (95% CI 1.8-2.5) for falls and 1.9 (95% CI 1.6-2.4) for cognition. Of those with two AWVs, 48% had an ACP at the first AWV. Among the remaining 52% with no ACP at the first AWV, the predicted probability of having an ACP at the second AWV was 0.22 (95% CI 0.18-0.25). CONCLUSION: Our results may indicate positive effects of screening for geriatric conditions at the AWV, and highlight opportunities to improve geriatrics care related to prescribing and ACP.

Skilled home healthcare clinicians' experiences in communicating with physicians: A national survey.

BACKGROUND: Effective communication between skilled home healthcare (SHHC) clinicians and physicians is critical to care coordination. No studies have examined this from the point of view of SHHC clinicians at the national level. The objective is to determine in national sample issues related to how SHHC agency clinicians communicate with physicians. DESIGN: Mailed survey. METHODS: Mailed survey to a national representative random sample of SHHC agencies. The survey measured the experiences of SHHC clinicians in communicating with physicians. Multilevel logistic regression models examining odds of adverse patient outcomes associated with communication failures. RESULTS: A total of 265 surveys from 168 SHHC agencies were returned for a response rate of 13.3% at the individual respondent level and 16.8% at the SHHC agency level. Agency-level characteristics were similar between responding and nonresponding agencies. The most common method of contacting physicians during routine SHHC visits was telephone; communication via the electronic health record was uncommon. Nearly 40% of SHHC clinicians report never or rarely being able to reach a physician. SHHC clinicians rate the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services Home Health Certification and Plan of Care (CMS-485) as a useful means of communication 6.3 (SD, 2.5) scale of 1 (least useful) to 10 (most useful); only 14% could have SHHC orders signed electronically. In multilevel logistic models, compared to SHHC clinicians who could reach a physician nearly every time or always, the odds of an SHHC clinician sending someone to the emergency department were 3.66 (95% confidence interval 1.16-11.5) for SHHC clinicians who were sometimes or often able to reach a physician and 5.43 (95% CI 1.56-18.9) for those who never or rarely reached a physician. CONCLUSIONS: In this exploratory study, SHHC clinicians experience significant communication barriers with physicians who order SHHC services. Strategies to enhance meaningful communication between SHHC clinicians and physicians must be developed.

Chronic Care, Dementia Care Management, and Financial Considerations.

The needs of persons living with Alzheimer's disease and Alzheimer's disease-related dementia (AD/ADRD) are challenged by tremendous complexity impacting both care delivery and financing. Most persons living with dementia (PLWD) also suffer from other chronic medical or mental health conditions, which further burden quality of life and function. In addition to difficult treatment choices, optimal dementia care models likely involve people and services that are not typical pieces of the health care delivery system but are all critical partners-care partners, social workers, and community services, to name a few. More than 200 models of dementia care have demonstrated some efficacy. However, these successful interventions that might address much of the care needed by PLWD are uninsured in the United States, where insurance coverage has focused on acute care needs. This poses great difficulties for both care provision and care financing. In this article, we review these 3 key challenges: dementia care for those with chronic comorbid disease; care models that require people who are not typical providers in traditional care delivery systems; and the mandate to provide high-quality care that is currently not funded by usual health care insurance. We propose promising next steps that could substantially improve the lives of PLWD and the lives of their care partners, and highlight some of the many research questions that remain.

Skilled Home Healthcare Clinician and Staff Perspectives on Communication With Physicians: A Multisite Qualitative Study.

Communication between physicians who order, and clinicians who provide skilled home healthcare (SHHC), is critical to well-coordinated care. The views of SHHC staff on communication with physicians have not been well studied. The objective of this study was to explore how SHHC staff view the communication processes with physicians who order SHHC services. Using purposive and snowball sampling, we conducted semistructured interviews with 22 SHHC staff across multiple regions of the United States. Qualitative thematic content analysis was used to analyze the data. SHHC staff experienced significant barriers to effective communication with physicians, including not being able to communicate in a timely manner when necessary for patient care, and challenges identifying the correct physician to coordinate care and sign SHHC orders. Key strategies to enhance communication focused on creating standardized processes to streamline communication, setting expectations for response times in communication, and improving the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Home Health Certification and Plan of Care form (commonly referred to as the "CMS-485"/Plan of Care). SHHC staff experience significant communication challenges with physicians who order SHHC services that can compromise care coordination and delivery. Modifications to workflows are urgently needed to improve efficiency and quality of communication, care coordination, and quality of care.

Assessment of Patient-Preferred Language to Achieve Goal-Aligned Deprescribing in Older Adults.

Importance: How clinicians communicate about deprescribing, the structured process of reducing or stopping unnecessary, potentially harmful, or goal-discordant medicines, may be associated with the extent to which older adults are willing to do it. Objective: To examine older adults' preferences regarding different rationales a clinician may use to explain why a patient should stop an unnecessary or potentially harmful medication. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional survey study was conducted from March 25 to April 19, 2020, among a nationally representative, probability-based online survey panel (KnowledgePanel). KnowledgePanel members aged 65 years and older were recruited by random digit dialing and address-based sampling. Data were analyzed from May 4 to July 8, 2020. Exposures: The survey presented 2 vignettes involving hypothetical older adults. One described a statin being used for primary prevention by a person with functional impairment and polypharmacy. The second described a sedative-hypnotic, such as zolpidem, being used for insomnia by a person with good functional status. Main Outcomes and Measures: After each vignette, participants expressed preferences using a best-worst scaling method for 7 different phrases a clinician may use to explain why they should reduce or stop the medication. Conditional logistic regression was used to quantify respondents' relative preferences. Results: A total of 1193 KnowledgePanel members were invited, and 835 respondents (70.0%) completed the survey. The mean (SD) age was 73 (6) years, 414 (49.6%) were women, and 671 (80.4%) self-identified as White individuals. A total of 496 respondents (59.8%) had ever used a statin, and 124 respondents (14.9%) had ever used a sedative-hypnotic. For both medications, the most preferred phrase to explain deprescribing focused on the risk of side effects. For statins, this phrase was 5.8-fold (95% CI, 5.3-6.3) more preferred than the least preferred option, which focused on the effort (treatment burden) involved in taking the medicine. For sedative-hypnotics, the phrase about side effects was 8.6-fold (95% CI, 7.9-9.5) more preferred over the least preferred option, "This medicine is unlikely to help you function better." Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that among older adults, the most preferred rationale for deprescribing both preventive and symptom-relief medicines focused on the risk of side effects. These results could be used to inform clinical practice and improve effective communications around deprescribing in older adults.

Potential value of electronic health records in capturing data on geriatric frailty for population health.

OBJECTIVES: Despite the availability of many frailty measures to identify older adults at risk, frailty instruments are not routinely used for risk assessment in population health management. Here, we assessed the potential value of electronic health records (EHRs) and administrative claims in providing the necessary data for variables used across various frailty instruments. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The review focused on studies conducted worldwide. Participants included older people aged 50 and older. DESIGN: We identified frailty instruments published between 2011 and 2018. Frailty variables used in each of the frailty instruments were extracted, grouped, and categorized across health determinants and various clinical factors. MEASURES: The availability of the extracted frailty variables across various data sources (e.g., EHRs, administrative claims, and surveys) was evaluated by experts. RESULTS: We identified 135 frailty instruments, which contained 593 unique variables. Clinical determinants of health were the best represented variables across frailty instruments (n = 516; 87 %), unlike social and health services factors (n = 33; ∼5% and n = 32; ∼5%). Most frailty instruments require at least one variable that is not routinely available in EHRs or claims (n = 113; ∼83 %). Only 22 frailty instruments have the potential to completely rely on EHR (structured or free-text data) and/or claims data, and possibly be operationalized on a population-level. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Frailty instruments continue to be highly survey-based. More research is therefore needed to develop EHR-based frailty instruments for population health management. This will permit organizations and societies to stratify risk and better allocate resources among different older adult populations.

Assessment of Clinician Decision-making on Cancer Screening Cessation in Older Adults With Limited Life Expectancy.

Importance: Despite clinical practice guidelines recommending against routine cancer screening in older adults with limited life expectancy, older adults are still frequently screened for breast, colorectal, and prostate cancers. Objective: To examine primary care clinicians' decision-making on stopping breast, colorectal, or prostate cancer screening in older adults with limited life expectancy. Design, Setting, and Participants: In qualitative interviews coupled with medical record-stimulated recall, clinicians from 17 academic and community clinics affiliated with a large health system were asked how they came to specific cancer screening decisions in 2 or 3 of their older patients with less than 10-year of estimated life expectancy, including patients with and without recent screening. Patients were surveyed by telephone. Data collection occurred between October 2018 and May 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Clinician interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Transcripts were analyzed with qualitative content analysis to identify major themes. Patient surveys assessed perception of cancer screening decisions, importance of clinician recommendation, and willingness to stop screening. Results: Twenty-five primary care clinicians (mean [SD] age, 47.1 [9.7] years; 14 female [56%]) discussed 53 patients during medical record-stimulated recall, ranging from 2 to 3 patients per clinician; 46 patients and 1 caregiver (mean [SD] age 74.9 [5.4]; 31 female [66%]) participated in the survey. Clinician interviews revealed 5 major themes: (1) cancer screening decisions were not always conscious, deliberate decisions; (2) electronic medical record alerts were connected with less deliberate decision-making; (3) cancer screening was not binary and clinicians often considered other options to scale back screening without actually stopping; (4) in addition to patient characteristics, clinicians were influenced by patient request and anecdotal experiences; and (5) influences outside of the primary care clinician-patient dyad were important, such as from specialists and patients' family or friends. Patient surveys asked approximately 64 cancer screening decisions of 47 patients. Patients did not recall approximately half (31 of 64) of their cancer screening decisions. Among those with recent screening, the mean score for willingness to stop screening was 3.2 (95% CI 2.5-3.9) on a 5-point Likert scale (with 1 indicating "extremely unlikely" and 5 indicating "extremely likely"). In most screening decisions that involved specialists (13 of 16), patients valued specialists' recommendations over those of primary care clinicians. Conclusions and Relevance: Cancer screening decision-making is complex. Study findings suggest that strategies that facilitate more deliberate decision-making may be important in cancer screening of older adults with limited life expectancy.

Neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with multimorbidity in a geographically-defined community.

BACKGROUND: Persons with low socioeconomic status may be disproportionately at risk for multimorbidity. METHODS: Adults aged ≥20 years on 4/1/2015 from 7 counties in Minnesota were identified using the Rochester Epidemiology Project (population-based sample). A composite measure of neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage, the area deprivation index (ADI), was estimated at the census block group level (n = 251). The prevalence of 21 chronic conditions was obtained to calculate the proportion of persons with multimorbidity (≥2 chronic conditions) and severe multimorbidity (≥5 chronic conditions). Hierarchical logistic regression was used to estimate the association of ADI with multimorbidity and severe multimorbidity using odds ratios (OR). RESULTS: Among 198,941 persons (46.7% male, 30.6% aged ≥60 years), the age- and sex-standardized (to the United States 2010 census) median prevalence (Q1, Q3) was 23.4% (21.3%, 25.9%) for multimorbidity and 4.8% (4.0%, 5.7%) for severe multimorbidity. Compared with persons in the lowest quintile of ADI, persons in the highest quintile had a 50% increased risk of multimorbidity (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.39-1.62) and a 67% increased risk of severe multimorbidity (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.51-1.86) after adjusting for age, sex, race, and ethnicity. Associations were stronger after further adjustment for individual level of education; persons in the highest quintile had a 78% increased risk of multimorbidity (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.62-1.96) and a 92% increased risk of severe multimorbidity (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.72-2.13). There was evidence of interactions between ADI and age, between ADI and sex, and between ADI and education. After age 70 years, no difference in the risk of multimorbidity was observed across quintiles of ADI. The pattern of increasing multimorbidity with increasing ADI was more pronounced in women. Finally, there was less variability across quintiles of ADI for the most highly educated group. CONCLUSIONS: Higher ADI was associated with increased risk of multimorbidity, and the associations were strengthened after adjustment for individual level of education, suggesting that neighborhood context plays a role in health above and beyond individual measures of socioeconomic status. Furthermore, associations were more pronounced in younger persons and women, highlighting the importance of interventions to prevent chronic conditions in younger women, in particular.

The Epidemiology of Social Isolation: National Health and Aging Trends Study.

OBJECTIVES: Social isolation among older adults is an important but under-recognized risk for poor health outcomes. Methods are needed to identify subgroups of older adults at risk for social isolation. METHODS: We constructed a typology of social isolation using data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) and estimated the prevalence and correlates of social isolation among community-dwelling older adults. The typology was formed from four domains: living arrangement, core discussion network size, religious attendance, and social participation. RESULTS: In 2011, 24% of self-responding, community-dwelling older adults (65+ years), approximately 7.7 million people, were characterized as socially isolated, including 1.3 million (4%) who were characterized as severely socially isolated. Multinomial multivariable logistic regression indicated that being unmarried, male, having low education, and low income were all independently associated with social isolation. Black and Hispanic older adults had lower odds of social isolation compared with white older adults, after adjusting for covariates. DISCUSSION: Social isolation is an important and potentially modifiable risk that affects a significant proportion of the older adult population.

Outcome preferences of older people with multiple chronic conditions and hypertension: a cross-sectional survey using best-worst scaling.

BACKGROUND: Older people with hypertension and multiple chronic conditions (MCC) receive complex treatments and face challenging trade-offs. Patients' preferences for different health outcomes can impact multiple treatment decisions. Since evidence about outcome preferences is especially scarce among people with MCC our aim was to elicit preferences of people with MCC for outcomes related to hypertension, and to determine how these outcomes should be weighed when benefits and harms are assessed for patient-centered clinical practice guidelines and health economic assessments. METHODS: We sent a best-worst scaling preference survey to a random sample identified from a primary care network of Kaiser Permanente (Colorado, USA). The sample included individuals age 60 or greater with hypertension and at least two other chronic conditions. We assessed average ranking of patient-important outcomes using conditional logit regression (stroke, heart attack, heart failure, dialysis, cognitive impairment, chronic kidney disease, acute kidney injury, fainting, injurious falls, low blood pressure with dizziness, treatment burden) and studied variation across individuals. RESULTS: Of 450 invited participants, 217 (48%) completed the survey, and we excluded 10 respondents who had more than two missing choices, resulting in a final sample of 207 respondents. Participants ranked stroke as the most worrisome outcome and treatment burden as the least worrisome outcome (conditional logit parameters: 3.19 (standard error 0.09) for stroke, 0 for treatment burden). None of the outcomes were always chosen as the most or least worrisome by more than 25% of respondents, indicating that all outcomes were somewhat worrisome to respondents. Predefined subgroup analyses according to age, self-reported life-expectancy, degree of comorbidity, number of medications and antihypertensive treatment did not reveal meaningful differences. CONCLUSIONS: Although some outcomes were more worrisome to patients than others, our results indicate that none of the outcomes should be disregarded for clinical practice guidelines and health economic assessments.