Uncovering the treatable burden of severe aortic stenosis in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the population prevalence and treatable burden of severe aortic stenosis (AS) in the UK. METHODS: We adapted a contemporary model of the population profile of symptomatic and asymptomatic severe AS in Europe and North America to estimate the number of people aged ≥55 years in the UK who might benefit from surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). RESULTS: With a point prevalence of 1.48%, we estimate that 291 448 men and women aged ≥55 years in the UK had severe AS in 2019. Of these, 68.3% (199 059, 95% CI 1 77 201 to 221 355 people) would have been symptomatic and, therefore, more readily treated according to their surgical risk profile; the remaining 31.7% of cases (92 389, 95% CI 70 093 to 144 247) being asymptomatic. Based on historical patterns of intervention, 58.4% (116 251, 95% CI 106 895 to 1 25 606) of the 199 059 symptomatic cases would qualify for SAVR, with 7208 (95% CI 7091 to 7234) being assessed as being in a high, preoperative surgical risk category. Among the remaining 41.6% (82 809, 95% CI 73 453 to 92 164) of cases potentially unsuitable for SAVR, an estimated 61.7% (51 093, 95% CI 34 780 to 67 655) might be suitable for TAVI. We estimate that 172 859 out of 291 448 prevalent cases of severe AS (59.3%) will subsequently die within 5 years without proactive management. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest a high burden of severe AS in the UK requiring surgical or transcatheter intervention that challenges the ongoing capacity of the National Health Service to meet the needs of those affected.

Amaze: a randomized controlled trial of adjunct surgery for atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVES: Atrial fibrillation (AF) reduces survival and quality of life (QoL). It can be treated at the time of major cardiac surgery using ablation procedures ranging from simple pulmonary vein isolation to a full maze procedure. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of adjunct AF surgery as currently performed on sinus rhythm (SR) restoration, survival, QoL and cost-effectiveness. METHODS: In a multicentre, Phase III, pragmatic, double-blinded, parallel-armed randomized controlled trial, 352 cardiac surgery patients with >3 months of documented AF were randomized to surgery with or without adjunct maze or similar AF ablation between 2009 and 2014. Primary outcomes were SR restoration at 1 year and quality-adjusted life years at 2 years. Secondary outcomes included SR at 2 years, overall and stroke-free survival, medication, QoL, cost-effectiveness and safety. RESULTS: More ablation patients were in SR at 1 year [odds ratio (OR) 2.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-3.54; P = 0.009]. At 2 years, the OR increased to 3.24 (95% CI 1.76-5.96). Quality-adjusted life years were similar at 2 years (ablation - control -0.025, P = 0.6319). Significantly fewer ablation patients were anticoagulated from 6 months postoperatively. Stroke rates were 5.7% (ablation) and 9.1% (control) (P = 0.3083). There was no significant difference in stroke-free survival [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.99, 95% CI 0.64-1.53; P = 0.949] nor in serious adverse events, operative or overall survival, cardioversion, pacemaker implantation, New York Heart Association, EQ-5D-3L and SF-36. The mean additional ablation cost per patient was £3533 (95% CI £1321-£5746). Cost-effectiveness was not demonstrated at 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: Adjunct AF surgery is safe and increases SR restoration and costs but not survival or QoL up to 2 years. A continued follow-up will provide information on these outcomes in the longer term. Study registration: ISRCTN82731440 (project number 07/01/34).